BTF Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, temptation said: Could not tell ya but backing up my statement above, I think 5A is the only class where you could currently make a case that all four remaining teams have a legitimate chance to hoist the trophy. No disrespect intended. I don't know enough about the south to make an educated rebuttal, so I'll just roll with your opinion on this one. Point blank, I agree. 6A: Ben Davis or Center Grove? The Westfield/Crown Point winner won't have a shot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 11, 2023 Author Share Posted November 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, BTF said: I don't know enough about the south to make an educated rebuttal, so I'll just roll with your opinion on this one. Point blank, I agree. 6A: Ben Davis or Center Grove? The Westfield/Crown Point winner won't have a shot? I don’t think Crown Point has much of a shot but if rumors are true that Westfield lost one of its best defensive players to injury last night I could see that one maybe being closer than I first imagined. I’ll waffle on BD/CG all weekend likely. Same way I did with CP/Penn and BD/Cathedral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 1 minute ago, temptation said: I don’t think Crown Point has much of a shot but if rumors are true that Westfield lost one of its best defensive players to injury last night I could see that one maybe being closer than I first imagined. I’ll waffle on BD/CG all weekend likely. Same way I did with CP/Penn and BD/Cathedral. I'm intrigued by Crown Point. I'll say it right here right now, I'm expecting them to give Westfield a run for their money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestfieldRocks Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, temptation said: I don’t think Crown Point has much of a shot but if rumors are true that Westfield lost one of its best defensive players to injury last night I could see that one maybe being closer than I first imagined. I’ll waffle on BD/CG all weekend likely. Same way I did with CP/Penn and BD/Cathedral. That's not a rumor about Coleton Vondersaar. He broke his leg with 17 seconds left in the first half. He was on the field for a long time while geting medical attention, and eventually an ambulance ride to the hospita. However, HSE only scored once with him out in the second half, and they have two of the best backs around. That score was helped by a short field when Westfield fumbled at midfield, their only turnover of the game. Edited November 11, 2023 by WestfieldRocks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastpacedO Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, BTF said: I'm intrigued by Crown Point. I'll say it right here right now, I'm expecting them to give Westfield a run for their money. This is my personal thought only and won't be a popular opinion. After watching Cathedral put a running clock on Penn 35-0 at half 35-6 final (Penn had a PR for TD late in the game), and Crown Point struggle to a 34-33 win over the Kingsmen I don't foresee Crown Point being a threat to Westfield. I don't think CP will get blown out but more like a 28-14, 35-20 type of game. Westfield has to travel to Crown Point which is a positive for CP. Granted I know Penn has likely improved since playing Cathedral and Crown Point has improved, but I believe Westfield has improved as well . Outside of the Brownsburg and Zionsville game Westfield has been pretty solid all year long. Edited November 11, 2023 by FastpacedO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 4 hours ago, FastpacedO said: One thing of note. With Bo Polston back for Decatur Central, that is not great news for 5A. I wasn't sure if he would be coming back when he went down against Whiteland earlier in the year. Decatur Central without Polston was mediocre, with him though they are pretty solid! Bloomington South at Decatur Central should be a good one. I will take the Hawks since they are playing at home with a trip to Lucas Oil. Should be assault charges filed for what they did to Whiteland last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOLDRUSH1985 Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 53 minutes ago, FastpacedO said: This is my personal thought only and won't be a popular opinion. After watching Cathedral put a running clock on Penn 35-0 at half 35-6 final (Penn had a PR for TD late in the game), and Crown Point struggle to a 34-33 win over the Kingsmen I don't foresee Crown Point being a threat to Westfield. I don't think CP will get blown out but more like a 28-14, 35-20 type of game. Westfield has to travel to Crown Point which is a positive for CP. Granted I know Penn has likely improved since playing Cathedral and Crown Point has improved, but I believe Westfield has improved as well . Outside of the Brownsburg and Zionsville game Westfield has been pretty solid all year long. Can't use transitive property, it means squat . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, GOLDRUSH1985 said: Can't use transitive property, it means squat . You can, but it's just like using a buck knife to eat peas ... lot of peas roll off and sometimes you cut your tongue off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastpacedO Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, GOLDRUSH1985 said: Can't use transitive property, it means squat . There was no transitive property used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOLDRUSH1985 Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 Just now, foxbat said: You can, but it's just like using a buck knife to eat peas ... lot of peas roll off and sometimes you cut your tongue off. Just saying CP is more than capable of taking out Westfield , just like Carroll did to HSE last year . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 11, 2023 Author Share Posted November 11, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, FastpacedO said: There was no transitive property used. No one can watch 400+ football teams so sometimes the transitive property is the best you can do. It means something “sometimes.” Sagarin is pretty damn accurate. Edited November 11, 2023 by temptation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 1 hour ago, FastpacedO said: This is my personal thought only and won't be a popular opinion. After watching Cathedral put a running clock on Penn 35-0 at half 35-6 final (Penn had a PR for TD late in the game), and Crown Point struggle to a 34-33 win over the Kingsmen I don't foresee Crown Point being a threat to Westfield. I don't think CP will get blown out but more like a 28-14, 35-20 type of game. Westfield has to travel to Crown Point which is a positive for CP. Granted I know Penn has likely improved since playing Cathedral and Crown Point has improved, but I believe Westfield has improved as well . Outside of the Brownsburg and Zionsville game Westfield has been pretty solid all year long. I'd say throw travel out the window. History shows that Indy teams traveling up north doesn't affect them a fraction of an iota. I also agree with Goldrush1985. Transitive property can go out the window as well. Using that as a gage could result in tragic mistake for Westfield. I'm thinking the Rocks by 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, temptation said: It means something “sometimes.” Sagarin is pretty damn accurate. Agree, I think there is something to be said for transitive property, but not even close to the end all be all. Sagarin has it's flaws though, you have to admit. How do you explain them ranking Warren Central and East Noble ahead of Snider when the Panthers blew them both out? Maybe Snider's an outlier because of how their program is run when they get a lead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastpacedO Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, BTF said: I'd say throw travel out the window. History shows that Indy teams traveling up north doesn't affect them a fraction of an iota. I also agree with Goldrush1985. Transitive property can go out the window as well. Using that as a gage could result in tragic mistake for Westfield. I'm thinking the Rocks by 10. Let me repeat there. was. no. transitive. property. used. Transitive Property = USA beat Mexico and Mexico beat Canada so by transitive property USA beat Canada. Nowhere in there has Westfield played anyone that beat Crown Point or Penn. It is NOT transitive property. I've watched Penn play Cathedral (in person) and I have watched 2 Crown Point games (on film). I have seen multiple (4 to be exact 2 on film 2 in person) Westfield games. If you want more in depth I can give it. I stand 100% by what I stated. It won't be a blow out more of a 28-14, 35-20 type of game with Westfield winning. If I am wrong I will eat crow. For Pete's sake can the "transitive property" be put to rest as it wasn't even used. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, FastpacedO said: Let me repeat there. was. no. transitive. property. used. Transitive Property = USA beat Mexico and Mexico beat Canada so by transitive property USA beat Canada. Nowhere in there has Westfield played anyone that beat Crown Point or Penn. It is NOT transitive property. I've watched Penn play Cathedral (in person) and I have watched 2 Crown Point games (on film). I have seen multiple (4 to be exact 2 on film 2 in person) Westfield games. If you want more in depth I can give it. I stand 100% by what I stated. It won't be a blow out more of a 28-14, 35-20 type of game with Westfield winning. If I am wrong I will eat crow. For Pete's sake can the "transitive property" be put to rest as it wasn't even used. Agree, you didn't use transitive property in your assessment of Westfield vs Crown Point. I think your comment about Penn getting hammered by Cathedral was flirting with it though. I do respect your opinion on how you think the game will turn out. You've got the Rocks by 14, I'm thinking 7 or 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestfieldRocks Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, BTF said: I'd say throw travel out the window. History shows that Indy teams traveling up north doesn't affect them a fraction of an iota. I also agree with Goldrush1985. Transitive property can go out the window as well. Using that as a gage could result in tragic mistake for Westfield. I'm thinking the Rocks by 10. As an example, In the past 10 seasons, Westfield has won at Ft. Wayne Snider 36-7, at one loss Merrillville 42-23, and at one loss Ft. Wayne Carroll 37-14. I know HSE lost at Carroll last year, but Carmel has also had a lot of success playing up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACKGOLD2007 Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 2 hours ago, FastpacedO said: This is my personal thought only and won't be a popular opinion. After watching Cathedral put a running clock on Penn 35-0 at half 35-6 final (Penn had a PR for TD late in the game), and Crown Point struggle to a 34-33 win over the Kingsmen I don't foresee Crown Point being a threat to Westfield. I don't think CP will get blown out but more like a 28-14, 35-20 type of game. Westfield has to travel to Crown Point which is a positive for CP. Granted I know Penn has likely improved since playing Cathedral and Crown Point has improved, but I believe Westfield has improved as well . Outside of the Brownsburg and Zionsville game Westfield has been pretty solid all year long. I would like to think that Penn did not put their best foot forward in the Cathedral game. I would hope that the team that never gave up last night would show up if they had could play Cathedral all over again. But, all we have to go by is what happened. When Penn leveled the game at 20 and got the ball back after forcing the second punt (in two drives, in the 3rd quarter) by CP, there was a feeling on the Penn side that we were going to move down the field and score and take control. Penn fumbles on a QB/RB exchange, something we had not seen all season long. CP recovers scores and then scores again. Now Penn's backs were against the wall. Down 14, at home all the momentum on the other side. Penn of seasons past would have folded. This team rallied from down 14 twice, and missing 2xpt opportunities and a field goal, just wont get the job done. I think CP will score on Westfield, especially the game being at home. The CP fans had a good showing at Penn last night, and were loud. Westfield will be in a fight, I just think they need to limit the long third down conversions, something CP was pulling off all night long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACKGOLD2007 Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 1 hour ago, BTF said: I'd say throw travel out the window. History shows that Indy teams traveling up north doesn't affect them a fraction of an iota. I also agree with Goldrush1985. Transitive property can go out the window as well. Using that as a gage could result in tragic mistake for Westfield. I'm thinking the Rocks by 10. How far back in History are you going on this one...Recent history...like 5 seasons, or further back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastpacedO Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 On 11/11/2023 at 1:16 PM, BLACKGOLD2007 said: I would like to think that Penn did not put their best foot forward in the Cathedral game. I would hope that the team that never gave up last night would show up if they had could play Cathedral all over again. But, all we have to go by is what happened. When Penn leveled the game at 20 and got the ball back after forcing the second punt (in two drives, in the 3rd quarter) by CP, there was a feeling on the Penn side that we were going to move down the field and score and take control. Penn fumbles on a QB/RB exchange, something we had not seen all season long. CP recovers scores and then scores again. Now Penn's backs were against the wall. Down 14, at home all the momentum on the other side. Penn of seasons past would have folded. This team rallied from down 14 twice, and missing 2xpt opportunities and a field goal, just wont get the job done. I think CP will score on Westfield, especially the game being at home. The CP fans had a good showing at Penn last night, and were loud. Westfield will be in a fight, I just think they need to limit the long third down conversions, something CP was pulling off all night long. In my Opinion Westfield is a better passing team than Penn. They have a pretty solid WR and TE , and they run the ball very well. Their defense has seen some of the State's top WR's and RB's this season: JonAnthony Hall (Fishers), Donovan Hamilton (HSE), Eugene Hilton (Zionsville), Corey Smith (Brownsburg), Caydin Olinger (Brownsburg), Damarcus Cole (Lawrence Central), Garrett Sherrell (Brownsburg), Logan Shoffner (Noblesville), Khobie Martin (Fishers), Jalen Alexander (HSE). Crown Point will 100% be a worthy opponent (I do not see this being a blowout). They will score some points but I feel Westfield will score more and be capable of stopping Crown Point enough times to extend a lead. I foresee this being a 28-14 or 35-20 type of game. Calpreps had Westfield (IN) 31 (73%), Crown Point (IN) 22 (27%). I don't pay attention to the scores on there much but do look at the percentages. I just feel Crown Point isn't going to bring anything Westfield hasn't played against already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaboy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) On 11/11/2023 at 1:20 PM, BLACKGOLD2007 said: How far back in History are you going on this one...Recent history...like 5 seasons, or further back. A quick look at Carmel, I came up with a 21-9 record since 1994 when traveling up to the US-30 corridor and north of. So I'm concluding that the road trip doesn't really matter. Well at least for Carmel it doesn't Edited November 13, 2023 by psaboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaboy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, psaboy said: A quick look at Carmel, I came up with a 21-9 record since 1994 when traveling up to the US-30 corridor and north of. So I'm concluding that the road trip doesn't really matter. Well at least for Carmel it doesn't Went back and double checked, looks like they are 14-7, not 21-9. Maybe travel has a small role, seeing they would be around 7-2 at home against the "northern" teams Edited November 13, 2023 by psaboy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACKGOLD2007 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, psaboy said: A quick look at Carmel, I came up with a 21-9 record since 1994 when traveling up to the US-30 corridor and north of. So I'm concluding that the road trip doesn't really matter. Well at least for Carmel it doesn't I am assuming most of these games were played in playoff games. There was a stretch of games between Penn and Carmel in the early years of 6A that were close. (I define close as 2 score games) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psaboy Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 minute ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said: I am assuming most of these games were played in playoff games. There was a stretch of games between Penn and Carmel in the early years of 6A that were close. (I define close as 2 score games) Yea, I just looked at playoff games, the 21-9 seemed to be overall record. I just looked at Carmel seeing they were likely to offer the most data points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLACKGOLD2007 Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, FastpacedO said: In my Opinion Westfield is a better passing team than Penn. They have a pretty solid WR and TE , and they run the ball very well. Their defense has seen some of the State's top WR's and RB's this season: JonAnthony Hall (Fishers), Donovan Hamilton (HSE), Eugene Hilton (Zionsville), Corey Smith (Brownsburg), Caydin Olinger (Brownsburg), Damarcus Cole (Lawrence Central), Garrett Sherrell (Brownsburg), Logan Shoffner (Noblesville), Khobie Martin (Fishers), Jalen Alexander (HSE). Crown Point will 100% be a worthy opponent (I do not see this being a blowout). They will score some points but I feel Westfield will score more and be capable of stopping Crown Point enough times to extend a lead. I foresee this being a 28-14 or 35-20 type of game. Calpreps had Westfield (IN) 31 (73%), Crown Point (IN) 22 (27%). I don't pay attention to the scores on there much but do look at the percentages. I just feel Crown Point isn't going to bring anything Westfield hasn't played against already. I agree 100% 5 minutes ago, psaboy said: Yea, I just looked at playoff games, the 21-9 seemed to be overall record. I just looked at Carmel seeing they were likely to offer the most data points understandable. They are the one school that has been the most consistent from that are of the state to come northward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lysander Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) Gotta be honest, as someone who pays a lot of attention to Sags and CalPreps, I’m totally down with the transitive value being utilized to predict outcomes. You just need a lot of games (more inputs) played before it begins to become predictive…not a few or single game. In the end, I’ll trust the transitive value used en gros over most alternative. With that, I’m still very uncomfortable with Sags this year…even at this late stage of the season. Maybe just confirmation bias on my part but I really think the lack of incorporating out of state games in Sagarin seems to be more problematic than most any prior year I can recall. Edited November 13, 2023 by Lysander 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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