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Coach_G

Purdue and Indiana sign a total of 7 in-state kids

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Not too long ago the pipe-line to IU and Purdue was pretty apparent.  While both struggled to get 5 star in-state guys, they normally would fill close to half of their class with in-state guys.  Especially Indiana.  Yesterday however, it appears that only 7 in-state players signed with IU or Purdue, and 3 of those players were from one school (Ben Davis).   7 out of 46, is pretty disappointing. 

Edited by Coach_G
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This is primarily an aftereffect of the talent deficit in Indiana.  No real surprise.  

The Duneland Conference hasn't produced a Power 5 calibre player in years.  Merrillville used to have 2 or 3 per season.  Huge talent dropoff

 

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30 minutes ago, DrivenT said:

This is primarily an aftereffect of the talent deficit in Indiana.  No real surprise.  

The Duneland Conference hasn't produced a Power 5 calibre player in years.  Merrillville used to have 2 or 3 per season.  Huge talent dropoff

 

Certainly agree about the talent drop off in the Duneland. 10 years ago I publicly offered the opinion that the Duneland and the HCC were fairly equal in terms of the caliber of play. A noticeable gap between them now.

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If you were a Big 10 caliber player and had options, why would you go to Indiana or Purdue anyway?

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8 minutes ago, bobref said:

Certainly agree about the talent drop off in the Duneland. 10 years ago I publicly offered the opinion that the Duneland and the HCC were fairly equal in terms of the caliber of play. A noticeable gap between them now.

The demise of Merrillville and Lake Central has just killed the conference's competitive reputation.  Who would have thunk that Michigan City and Laporte would emerge as the two best programs in the conference?

It comes down to quality of coaching.

Phil Mason and Dave Sharpe are MIC/HCC calibre coaches.  No others in the DAC approach that level.  Therein lies your explanation.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Dan Jones said:

If you were a Big 10 caliber player and had options, why would you go to Indiana or Purdue anyway?

Agreed 100%.....if IU and PU are the "best" offers, then jump on them.

7 minutes ago, DrivenT said:

The demise of Merrillville and Lake Central has just killed the conference's competitive reputation.  Who would have thunk that Michigan City and Laporte would emerge as the two best programs in the conference?

It comes down to quality of coaching.

Phil Mason and Dave Sharpe are MIC/HCC calibre coaches.  No others in the DAC approach that level.  Therein lies your explanation.

 

 

Very, very good coaches w/ GREAT staffs.

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9 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

How many total D1 kids signed this year?    


That is the question, how many total compared to previous years, or compared to average over a time period. 


Perhaps the talent at the HS level in Indiana is above average, so kids are getting better offers than bottom

dwelling B1G teams?

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52 minutes ago, Dan Jones said:

If you were a Big 10 caliber player and had options, why would you go to Indiana or Purdue anyway?

For the most part the top 5 guys in state have always gone out of state, that's not different this year.  The question is why have these schools turned away from taking many of the guys who are 6-20 in the state?   Either 1) they didn't put much effort into those guys or 2) those guys put little interest in these schools all of a sudden.  

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2 hours ago, DrivenT said:

This is primarily an aftereffect of the talent deficit in Indiana.  No real surprise.  

The Duneland Conference hasn't produced a Power 5 calibre player in years.  Merrillville used to have 2 or 3 per season.  Huge talent dropoff

 

You keep mentioning how Merriville has, apparently, been a D1 factory in the past.  I'm curious if I'm missing something.  To the best of my knowledge, since 1990, there's been:

Jamel Williams, Nebraska '92

Eugene Wilson, Illinois '98

Michael Neal, Purdue '04

Dexter Larimore, Ohio State '06

James Aldridge, Notre Dame '06 (also a move in his junior year from St. Louis, so not a native Regionite)

Dalapo McCarthy, Purdue walk-on '08

Aaron Kaszmarski, Central Michigan '08

Matt Neal, Idaho '11

 

I'm sure I'm missing some players.  So this is a list of 8 players in 27 years who went D1 from Merillville.  Even accounting for a few names i have to be missing, this is extremely impressive.  However, it is nowhere near this "2-3 D1 players a year" you keep spouting when harping on the decline of region football. 

 

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2 hours ago, Dan Jones said:

If you were a Big 10 caliber player and had options, why would you go to Indiana or Purdue anyway?

Free Big Ten education, playing time, ability to develop into an NFL player, etc. Not everyone can play for Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, etc. Purdue and IU have certain areas of study that rank among the best in the country. Some guys, who see the NFL as a pipe dream, may find that appealing. 

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I know everyone on here is worried about the quantity of D1 recruits, but what about the quality?  Obviously Indiana is never going to produce the amounts of Texas, Florida, California, or even Ohio.  But I just watched a Clemson game where an Indiana kid came in at QB for mop-up duty as a freshman.  An Indiana boy is going to QB Michigan in a bowl game.  Next year could see, maybe, two Indiana Boys starting for IU.  There are numerous Indiana boys tearing it up in D2, NAIA, and the like.  Guys like Ike James, Marty Carter, and Justin Green are tearing it up at RB for some perennial lower level powers.  Hell, they are talking about Carter getting some NFL looks.  

Don't get caught up in the horribly inexact science of D1 recruiting. It means little.  Indiana is producing solid college football players at all levels.  

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2 hours ago, Coach Nowlin said:

How many total D1 kids signed this year?    

Yeah, and this is just the early signing period. I'm to busy to research who did and didn't sign, but I'd be willing to bet IU and Purdue get more in February.

 

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1 hour ago, RegionFan said:

You keep mentioning how Merriville has, apparently, been a D1 factory in the past.  I'm curious if I'm missing something.  To the best of my knowledge, since 1990, there's been:

Jamel Williams, Nebraska '92

Eugene Wilson, Illinois '98

Michael Neal, Purdue '04

Dexter Larimore, Ohio State '06

James Aldridge, Notre Dame '06 (also a move in his junior year from St. Louis, so not a native Regionite)

Dalapo McCarthy, Purdue walk-on '08

Aaron Kaszmarski, Central Michigan '08

Matt Neal, Idaho '11

 

I'm sure I'm missing some players.  So this is a list of 8 players in 27 years who went D1 from Merillville.  Even accounting for a few names i have to be missing, this is extremely impressive.  However, it is nowhere near this "2-3 D1 players a year" you keep spouting when harping on the decline of region football. 

 

There was a period in the mid 2000s when MV had multiple prospects annually.  

Brandon Jordan and Bart Woodard missed your list.  

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Just now, DrivenT said:

There was a period in the mid 2000s when MV had multiple prospects annually.  

Brandon Jordan and Bart Woodard missed your list.  

OK, ten in 27 years.  Still not anywhere close to "2-3 a year".  And multiple prospects?  A guy like you, who is always so hard core about results and absolutes arguing prospects?  A prospect who doesn't go D1 would never, ever in a million years be considered for this argument if you were trying to argue the other side, and you know it.  You'd belittle someone to death if they tried to argue a program's strength based on "prospects" if those prospects never panned out to actual D1 signings.  Nice attempt at a counter, though.

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12 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

Yeah, and this is just the early signing period. I'm to busy to research who did and didn't sign, but I'd be willing to bet IU and Purdue get more in February.

 

IU has 24 commits, which is basically a full class.  There are no "game changers" still out there considering the Hoosiers.  Allen might dip in to the Ben Davis jayvee to sign a few more Giants into the fold.  Other than that, not much room left to sign anyone else.

4 minutes ago, RegionFan said:

OK, ten in 27 years.  Still not anywhere close to "2-3 a year".  And multiple prospects?  A guy like you, who is always so hard core about results and absolutes arguing prospects?  A prospect who doesn't go D1 would never, ever in a million years be considered for this argument if you were trying to argue the other side, and you know it.  You'd belittle someone to death if they tried to argue a program's strength based on "prospects" if those prospects never panned out to actual D1 signings.  Nice attempt at a counter, though.

I was being obsequious  Did we miss the Streck boys?  Riley Lattimore?  I think there are many more

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Meanwhile St. Francis and Marian have dominated NAIA in recent years with Indiana dominated rosters. UIndy has had a fair amount of success, Franklin is a consistent winner. 

I realize the NFL is the big dream, but for the masses it's a pipe dream.

 

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Here's how many blue-chip players have come from every state in the last five years, with each state's national percentage of elite talent included:

State '17 '16 '15 '14 '13 Total Total%
Texas 47 52 47 37 46 229 13.8%
Florida 42 47 50 42 46 226 13.6%
California 35 45 44 34 41 199 12.0%
Georgia 33 26 34 23 25 141 8.5%
Ohio 16 12 17 15 19 79 4.8%
Louisiana 12 21 13 16 12 74 4.5%
Alabama 15 8 12 11 13 59 3.6%
Virginia 15 6 13 10 13 57 3.4%
North Carolina 7 15 9 13 7 51 3.1%
Pennsylvania 9 9 9 7 10 44 2.7%
Tennessee 9 8 11 7 9 44 2.7%
New Jersey 5 8 7 10 11 41 2.5%
Mississippi 7 11 7 8 5 38 2.3%
Illinois 5 6 5 12 9 37 2.2%
Maryland 9 11 6 4 6 36 2.2%
Michigan 10 9 4 4 8 35 2.1%
South Carolina 4 5 5 9 5 28 1.7%
Indiana 4 4 3 6 7 24 1.4%
Arizona 3 5 2 7 6 24 1.4%
Oklahoma 5 1 5 7 2 20 1.2%
Washington 5 3 6 2 2 18 1.1%
Arkansas 2 3 5 2 3 15 0.9%
D.C. 3 4 3 2 3 15 0.9%
Utah 5 2 3 3 1 14 0.8%
Nevada 6 0 3 4 0 13 0.8%
Missouri 3 1 3 3 2 12 0.7%
Colorado 2 1 3 3 1 10 0.6%
Hawaii 2 2 4 0 2 10 0.6%
Oregon 2 2 1 2 3 10 0.6%
Kentucky 1 3 2 2 1 9 0.5%
Iowa 2 2 0 2 1 7 0.4%
Kansas 0 3 0 3 0 6 0.4%
Minnesota 0 1 1 3 1 6 0.4%
New York 1 0 1 3 1 6 0.4%
Wisconsin 1 2 0 2 1 6 0.4%
Connecticut 2 0 2 0 0 4 0.2%
Delaware 1 0 0 1 0 2 0.1%
Massachusetts 0 0 0 0 2 2 0.1%
Nebraska 0 0 0 0 2 2 0.1%
New Mexico 1 0 1 0 0 2 0.1%
Idaho 0 0 1 0 0 1 0.1%
South Dakota 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.1%
Alaska 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
Maine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
Montana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
New Hampshire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
North Dakota 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
Vermont 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
West Virginia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
Wyoming 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%
National 331 339 342 319 326 1657 100.0%

The top five states have more than half the country's blue-chip players for the last five years, at about 53 percent of the total.

Texas, Florida and California really do have so, so many more elite recruits than anybody else. Between the three, they've got about 40 percent of them. The top 10 states have better than 70 percent of the national total of four- and five-star players for 2017.

 

Georgia has solidly entrenched itself as the fourth-best recruiting state, with some combination of Ohio and Louisiana at Nos. 5 and 6. Then there's a mass of states that produces between 2 and 5 percent of the country's top recruits every year, and then a bunch more that almost (or literally) never produce elite players. Nine states haven't had any blue-chip players in the last five years. Some states have never, ever had them.

It makes a difference. Check out maps No. 6 through 9 here, which point out a few things: Champions come from areas with lots of good players, the best players are hugely clumped together in the big three states and the SEC and Pac-12 are operating at enormous geographic advantages.

This year's 32 five-star recruits are even more concentrated:

 

five_star_desert.png

 

Sparsely populated states are also short on elite recruits.

This picture never really changes, either.

I went into this research expecting to find that some states have particular years where they would erupt and produce far more blue-chip prospects than normal. Not really, it turns out. States' shares of the national blue-chip ranks stay almost the exact same every year, with few exceptions. Those figures from the last five years:

 

 

 

State '17 '16 '15 '14 '13
Texas 14.2% 15.3% 13.7% 11.6% 14.1%
Florida 12.7% 13.9% 14.6% 13.2% 14.1%
California 10.6% 13.3% 12.9% 10.7% 12.6%
Georgia 10.0% 7.7% 9.9% 7.2% 7.7%
Ohio 4.8% 3.5% 5.0% 4.7% 5.8%
Alabama 4.5% 2.4% 3.5% 3.4% 4.0%
Virginia 4.5% 1.8% 3.8% 3.1% 4.0%
Louisiana 3.6% 6.2% 3.8% 5.0% 3.7%
Michigan 3.0% 2.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.5%
Maryland 2.7% 3.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.8%
Pennsylvania 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 3.1%
Tennessee 2.7% 2.4% 3.2% 2.2% 2.8%
Mississippi 2.1% 3.2% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5%
North Carolina 2.1% 4.4% 2.6% 4.1% 2.1%
Nevada 1.8% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0%
Illinois 1.5% 1.8% 1.5% 3.8% 2.8%
New Jersey 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 3.1% 3.4%
Oklahoma 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 2.2% 0.6%
Utah 1.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Washington 1.5% 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6%
Indiana 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 1.9% 2.1%
South Carolina 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 2.8% 1.5%
Arizona 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 2.2% 1.8%
D.C. 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9%
Missouri 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Arkansas 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.9%
Colorado 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Connecticut 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.6%
Iowa 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%
Oregon 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9%
Delaware 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Kentucky 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
New Mexico 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
New York 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Wisconsin 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%
Alaska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Idaho 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Maine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Montana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
New Hampshire 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vermont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

In general, the top three states have fewer four- and five-star players this year than they're used to having. Maybe that reflects an evaluator bias that's now being evened out, or maybe it's an honest shortage of talent, relatively speaking. Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma (the states) are all having pretty nice recruiting years to compensate for it.

But for the most part, recruiting is the same as it ever was. A few states have way more elite talent than the rest of the union, and that's likely never going to change.

 

 

Analyzing the best Early Signing Period Classes

 
 
 
 
 
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It's all about perspective.  Half full I say.  Look Indiana has way more talent than Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont combined.

And from the overall population standpoint I'd think Indiana does pretty good proportionately.  Look at Indy area vs. Columbus area and my bet is there's not much difference and that Indy may have more talent.  The state as a whole just has 20% the population that Ohio does.  

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15 hours ago, bowwowindy1 said:

It's all about perspective.  Half full I say.  Look Indiana has way more talent than Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont combined.

And from the overall population standpoint I'd think Indiana does pretty good proportionately.  Look at Indy area vs. Columbus area and my bet is there's not much difference and that Indy may have more talent.  The state as a whole just has 20% the population that Ohio does.  

I agree. I think Fort Wayne and Indy do a pretty good job of developing talent. The Region, population of around 500,000, is a complete failure. Mishiana and Evansville are "meh." I've traveled alot, especially in Southern states, and IMO, the rural areas are what set the Southern states apart. Large states like Ohio, Texas, California, Pennsylvania, etc. are going to produce a lot of D1 talent as they have mutliple major metro areas. Places like South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia will have athletic freaks that live in rural areas. You're not just limited to recruiting Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, NOVA, Hampton Roads, etc. In Indiana, our rural areas typically only produce a lineman once in a while. 

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On 12/21/2017 at 5:54 PM, bowwowindy1 said:

It's all about perspective.  Half full I say.  Look Indiana has way more talent than Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont combined.

And from the overall population standpoint I'd think Indiana does pretty good proportionately.  Look at Indy area vs. Columbus area and my bet is there's not much difference and that Indy may have more talent.  The state as a whole just has 20% the population that Ohio does.  

Ohio 11.6 mil

Indiana 6.6 mil

 

I get your point but not even common core can get this to 20%.

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http://ohsaa.org/news-media/articles/ArtMID/2006/ArticleID/241/Noting-the-OHSAA-Football-State-Finalists

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/ohio-population/

https://www.google.com/search?q=indiana+population+2017&oq=Indiana+pop&aqs=chrome.2.0l3j69i57j0l2.3739j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

719 Ohio High Schools play football / Ohio population 11.6M / 1 school per 16133 residents

320 Indiana High Schools play football /  Indiana population 6.65M /  1 school per 20781 residents

 

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On 12/21/2017 at 11:40 AM, Dan Jones said:

If you were a Big 10 caliber player and had options, why would you go to Indiana or Purdue anyway?

If you're an Indiana kid looking to get into Ag or engineering why on earth would you leave to go someplace else? Same with Kelley business school, these two Universities have top notch programs in many areas. Remember, it's about the degree. 

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