Sectional Draw 2023

[Boilernation]

22 hours ago, Lysander said:

Shouldn’t 5A have their “own” Chatard, Cathedral, East Central, Columbus East, New Pal or Roncalli?  That’s 5 teams alone in 4A….and let’s not forget just how good Lowell and Reitz were for an extended period 10-15 years ago.  Instead, it’s general mediocrity in 5A.

Outside of Snider, who actually did play in one of the last (maybe “the” last) 64 team 5A State Championship v. Lawrence Central there is no one.  

Why does only 5A lack those teams?  Almost every other class has them.  My point from Day One when 5A came about was that there simply wasn’t a year in and out group of programs that represented the top end excellence you saw in 4A (or other classes).  

I may well be missing something, but outside of Evansville Memorial winning 4A (which was HUGE) a few years ago has any other class experienced being won by teams from a lower class……ever?  

In 5A, it’s generally an expectation 70% of the time.

Edit..just a quick and irrelevant afterthought.  As far as I’m concerned, I think that if you just earn a single point after you are bumped up a class that should be enough to stay up.

Then maybe a select group of those teams should stop stacking the trophy cases against unmatched opponents and head up to 5A. 
 

Snider recently beat New Pal for a State Title and Valpo gave New Pal’s best team the closest game they received all year. There’s not as big of a drop off as you think between the non Catholic below 5A powers and and the current 5A. 
 

As meh as the 5A field is, I’d still argue  the bottom of 5A is arguably stronger than the average opp Chatard and East Central will see in the playoffs this year. 

[Rodney]

18 hours ago, BTF said:

Let's not involve 3A in this debate. It doesn't hold any water at all with the exception of one team. And if one more person makes a claim that Indy Lutheran could win 5A I may have to check out of this forum for good as I just can't trust the credibility of the discussions anymore. 

was this me?

swear I was adamant that 1a can't beat anyone

[FastpacedO]

7 hours ago, Boilernation said:

As meh as the 5A field is, I’d still argue  the bottom of 5A is arguably stronger than the average opp Chatard and East Central will see in the playoffs this year. 

No offense. I would take the top 20 of 4A any day of the week vs the bottom 20 of 5A. I also think the Top 3 in 4A (East Central, Ev. Reitz, New Palestine) would do very well against the Top 3 in 5A (Bloomington South, Valpo, F.W. Snider). 

[Ballhawk]

I have to say after reading through this, I would have to agree that some type of sectional seeding would be a good idea, for fans.  I don't really think that players or coaches care.  You just line up and play whoever is next in line.

As a former player on a 9-1 team that didn't 'qualify' for the tournament, I like the all-in format.  The point system put a lot of 10-0 and 9-1 teams on the sideline without a chance to play in the tourney.  A lot of you will also remember the 'cluster' system from the 80s that was an attempt to have teams play each other in a district format to determine who made the tourney.  It didn't really work out well and helped lead to the all-in format.

I do like the idea of a 32-team 6A and 1A.  I would add that the 32 in 1A include the 32 smallest public schools.  This is probably not popular, but comparing a rural 1A school to a private school in a metro area is certainly not apples to apples.  

Of course I would also like to see 8-man football as an option for not just new schools, but for schools that struggle to put 20+ players on the field.

That's my $.02.  I am willing to step in as the czar as of January of 2024, if the position becomes available.

[psaboy]

18 hours ago, Rodney said:

Most years the top of 5a is 4a lmao

 

Oh also 5 4a teams were capable of winning 5a last year

And three of them would have been heavy favorites

Fake news 

[psaboy]

1 hour ago, FastpacedO said:

No offense. I would take the top 20 of 4A any day of the week vs the bottom 20 of 5A. I also think the Top 3 in 4A (East Central, Ev. Reitz, New Palestine) would do very well against the Top 3 in 5A (Bloomington South, Valpo, F.W. Snider). 

Pretty easy for East Central to look good with the 152nd ranked schedule. They have a 1-0 record against top 64, congrats to them. 

[Boilernation]

1 hour ago, FastpacedO said:

No offense. I would take the top 20 of 4A any day of the week vs the bottom 20 of 5A. I also think the Top 3 in 4A (East Central, Ev. Reitz, New Palestine) would do very well against the Top 3 in 5A (Bloomington South, Valpo, F.W. Snider). 

No offense taken. It's all subjective opinions anayways that can't be solved by Sagarin ratings. For example, LaPorte at 173 beat New Prairie at 65.

 

[tango]

8 minutes ago, psaboy said:

Pretty easy for East Central to look good with the 152nd ranked schedule. They have a 1-0 record against top 64, congrats to them. 

They played two OH opponents, including Moeller, so their SOS isn't entirely accurate. Beat Moeller by 10. 

[Bobref]

On 10/9/2023 at 8:22 AM, Just a dad said:

Just my opinion but what do I know? My takes are usually the least educated ones on this site

Maybe so, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. You are definitely on the right track here. Right now, only the games after week 9 have any implications for the playoffs. This way, there are a lot more significant games, and they’re all season long.

[foxbat]

1 hour ago, Ballhawk said:

Of course I would also like to see 8-man football as an option for not just new schools, but for schools that struggle to put 20+ players on the field.

That's my $.02.  I am willing to step in as the czar as of January of 2024, if the position becomes available.

A couple weeks ago, I went to watch Faith Christian play 8-man ball.  Faith is new to IHSAA in the last decade, but has never competed in football ... their size and, frankly, newness to the sport have them at a decisive disadvantage.

Their opponent that day was Indiana Deaf who had been a long-time participant in 11-man IHSAA.  As might be expected, ISD looked quite formidable against a squad who had only four players that had played organized football before this season.  In talking with the dad of one of Faith's players, he mentioned that they played or would be playing, Rock Creek and Dugger, both of whom have played 11-man before and mentioned that Traders Point Christian, a team that has been to three sectional finals in the past five seasons in 11-man IHSAA ball, was also moving to 8-man in the coming season.

[Boilernation]

1 hour ago, tango said:

They played two OH opponents, including Moeller, so their SOS isn't entirely accurate. Beat Moeller by 10. 

Yeah, anyone knocking East Central likely hasn't seen them play. They are without a doubt a Top 10 overall team in Indiana.

[Boilernation]

I took a look at the Sagarin Ratings by Class and came away with the following: 

Average Sagarin Rating: 

5A: 97

4A: 133

3A: 155

Percent of teams in the Sagarin Top 100
 

5A: 65

4A: 39

3A: 28

IMO, this confirms my belief that as "meh" as 5A appears it's still not as weak as suggested. 

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

I took a look at the Sagarin Ratings by Class and came away with the following: 

Average Sagarin Rating: 

5A: 97

4A: 133

3A: 155

Percent of teams in the Sagarin Top 100
 

5A: 65

4A: 39

3A: 28

IMO, this confirms my belief that as "meh" as 5A appears it's still not as weak as suggested. 

There's also double the amount of teams in 3A and 4A that significantly skew the averages. 

Average Sagarin rank for the top 10 teams in each of the following classes.

5A-28

4A-29

3A-45

[BTF]

3 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

I took a look at the Sagarin Ratings by Class and came away with the following: 

Average Sagarin Rating: 

5A: 97

4A: 133

3A: 155

Percent of teams in the Sagarin Top 100
 

5A: 65

4A: 39

3A: 28

IMO, this confirms my belief that as "meh" as 5A appears it's still not as weak as suggested. 

Good work. Especially since it's the 4A proponents who are touting Sagarin. 

I would also agree, despite having a weak schedule, East Central's win over Moeller solidifies their placement as a Top 10 team, maybe even Top 5. I'm just not buying that they would "crush" 5A's best. Especially since Snider crushed both East Noble (Sagarin #4 in 4A) and Warren Central (who were HIGHLY touted in the pre-season). I have nothing against 4A or Chatard in 3A. But I will come to the defense of 5A when needed. 

[Boilernation]

3 minutes ago, BTF said:

Good work. Especially since it's the 4A proponents who are touting Sagarin. 

I would also agree, despite having a weak schedule, East Central's win over Moeller solidifies their placement as a Top 10 team, maybe even Top 5. I'm just not buying that they would "crush" 5A's best. Especially since Snider crushed both East Noble (Sagarin #4 in 4A) and Warren Central (who were HIGHLY touted in the pre-season). I have nothing against 4A or Chatard in 3A. But I will come to the defense of 5A when needed. 

I have to admit I chuckle at the mentions of any sub 5A school not named East Central competing with Snider. The Panthers would bring size, speed and depth of the aforemention attributes to the field that a large majority of the sub 5A schools never see. 

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, BTF said:

Warren Central (who were HIGHLY touted in the pre-season). I have nothing against 4A or Chatard in 3A. But I will come to the defense of 5A when needed. 

Who highly touted Warren Central pre-season? Sagarin? His data doesn't become very reliant until after weeks 4-5. There were multiple posts dogging Warren Central, many questioning whether or not they'd finish above .500. They've been on the downswing the last several seasons. 

I would say the top 10 in 4A and 5A are about as similarly comparable as possible.

[BTF]

2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

There's also double the amount of teams in 3A and 4A that significantly skew the averages. 

Average Sagarin rank for the top 10 teams in each of the following classes.

5A-28

4A-29

3A-45

This is 5A vs 4A, not Top 10 vs Top 10. I'd be more interested in seeing how the Top 32 in each class match up against one another. 

Also, to be fair, we know Sagarin isn't the 'be all end all.' They have Snider at 21 and Carroll at 24. I think 99% of educated posters would disagree with those rankings.  

[psaboy]

2 hours ago, tango said:

They played two OH opponents, including Moeller, so their SOS isn't entirely accurate. Beat Moeller by 10. 

That makes sense

[BTF]

11 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Who highly touted Warren Central pre-season? 

I have a busy day today, so I don't have time to look up past posts. But there were several posts (to my recollection) stating that this could be Warren's year. Even the pre-game show on IHSAA had every Snider fan worried with what those guys were saying about Warren. 

[Footballking16]

11 minutes ago, BTF said:

This is 5A vs 4A, not Top 10 vs Top 10. I'd be more interested in seeing how the Top 32 in each class match up against one another. 

Also, to be fair, we know Sagarin isn't the 'be all end all.' They have Snider at 21 and Carroll at 24. I think 99% of educated posters would disagree with those rankings.  

5A--average Sagarin 94

4A top 32---average Sagarin 67

All of 4A---average Sagarin 132

Again there isn't a wide disparity between 4A and 5A top to bottom, especially at the top, which was the premise of the original argument. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Footballking16

[BTF]

21 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

I have to admit I chuckle at the mentions of any sub 5A school not named East Central competing with Snider. The Panthers would bring size, speed and depth of the aforemention attributes to the field that a large majority of the sub 5A schools never see. 

Without being a homer, I'd have to agree with that. They were able to beat a VERY good Carroll team. There is merit in that. Not to mention the two blowouts of WC and EN. Yeah, they laid an egg against Homestead a week after the big game, but then again, so did Carroll against Wayne. 

[BTF]

2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

5A--average Sagarin 94

4A top 32---average Sagarin 67

All of 4A---average Sagarin 132

Again there isn't a wide disparity between 4A and 5A top to bottom, especially at the top, which was the premise of the original argument. 

So what proponents of 4A really need to be saying is, "the top half of 4A is better than 5A", not "4A is better than 5A." I can respect that even though we are seeing flaws with Sagarin. But let's leave 3A out of the equation (speaking to all posters). They'd get squashed by every class above it. 

[Footballking16]

7 minutes ago, BTF said:

So what proponents of 4A really need to be saying is, "the top half of 4A is better than 5A", not "4A is better than 5A." I can respect that even though we are seeing flaws with Sagarin. But let's leave 3A out of the equation (speaking to all posters). They'd get squashed by every class above it. 

I think you can reasonably draw two conclusions from the data.

1. 5A is better (only slightly) top to bottom than 4A....but isn't that expected?

2. Collectively, the top 10 teams in 4A are just as good as the top 10 teams in 5A. 

I think we can all agree that if the largest 32 schools stayed 6A and the smallest 32 schools went 1A, 5A would be much stronger than it currently is. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Footballking16

[Rodney]

When did thr conversation even move to this year

 

I'd agree that anyone outside of ec would probably lose to snider this year

 

Hell outside of ec I think 4a is down this year

 

We talking about last year and how the top 4 teams from 4a could snatched a 5a trophy

 

And how in the easiest 5a pool in 50 years snider still managed to choke

To add onto this, I could've gone recruiting at the local pilot and found a capable team of taking 5a state last year

[BTF]

9 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I think you can reasonably draw two conclusions from the data.

1. 5A is better (only slightly) top to bottom than 4A....but isn't that expected?

2. Collectively, the top 10 teams in 4A are just as good as the top 10 teams in 5A. 

I think we can all agree that if the largest 32 schools stayed 6A and the smallest 32 schools went 1A, 5A would be much stronger than it currently is. 

1.     Agree

2.    Agree

On your last point: More than agree. That would make for one hell of a class. 

11 minutes ago, Rodney said:

When did thr conversation even move to this year

 

I'd agree that anyone outside of ec would probably lose to snider this year

 

Hell outside of ec I think 4a is down this year

 

We talking about last year and how the top 4 teams from 4a could snatched a 5a trophy

 

And how in the easiest 5a pool in 50 years snider still managed to choke

To add onto this, I could've gone recruiting at the local pilot and found a capable team of taking 5a state last year

Old, fat, hairy guys who wear their t-shirts too small?