Temp's 6A Tournament Predictions

[BLACKGOLD2007]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Noblesville still trying to “figure it out.”

like I said, it all depends on some variables. like change of focus in the football program, new coach or new scheme something has to give. If those things don't happen, they would reside at or near the bottom of the HCC. 

[temptation]

9 minutes ago, WestfieldRocks said:

Almost happened to Brownsburg after blowing out most everyone their schedule for the first 7 games, including FW Dwenger on the road. They go to Noblesville (1-6 in the HCC) and almost lose. 

One word:  HOMESTEAD…

Right, @BTF?

[temptation]

4 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

like I said, it all depends on some variables. like change of focus in the football program, new coach or new scheme something has to give. If those things don't happen, they would reside at or near the bottom of the HCC. 

Noblesville (who deep down I believe is ascending) has not had a winning season in over two decades and has cycled through 5 coaches (with a varying schemes and philosophies) in that span.

Edited October 23, 2023 by temptation

[BLACKGOLD2007]

8 minutes ago, temptation said:

Noblesville (who deep down I believe is ascending) has not had a winning season in over two decades and has cycled through 5 coaches (with a varying schemes and philosophies) in that span.

Well, wishful thinking is the next best thing. 

[HomeCookin]

4 hours ago, temptation said:

I’ve spoken on this in the past.  Once you get above that 2500 student threshold there is a point of diminishing returns.

2500 means you can go 2-3 deep and most positions and that’s good enough.  Little advantage to 4000+ vs 2500 as opposed to 3400 (HSE) vs 1900 (Snider).

I want to be clear in that I believe Snider could compete with nearly everyone in the HCC if the contests are being viewed as independent of one another, but asking them to play that schedule 8 weeks in a row world take its toll.

Cathedral is evidence to your point. Once they get in the tournament and have to play 6A schools every week their depth becomes an issue. That IMO is why they haven’t been able to finish in 6A.

[Footballking16]

2 minutes ago, HomeCookin said:

Cathedral is evidence to your point. Once they get in the tournament and have to play 6A schools every week their depth becomes an issue. That IMO is why they haven’t been able to finish in 6A.

They play a 6A equivalent schedule during the regular season so not really sure that argument holds much water. They've lost to the eventual 6A champion in 2/3 years they've played in the 6A tournament. 

[temptation]

8 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

They play a 6A equivalent schedule during the regular season so not really sure that argument holds much water. They've lost to the eventual 6A champion in 2/3 years they've played in the 6A tournament. 

Close, but now quite.  Contests against Hammond Morton, Brebeuf and Chatard are not quite at the level of the 6A schedules of most of the MIC/HCC schools but I see your point.  They get a couple of layups (games in which they can play poorly or their JV would win) annually.  Then again, Carmel/CG and the rest of the MIC 6 get NC and Pike which could be the equivalent.

[HomeCookin]

8 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

They play a 6A equivalent schedule during the regular season so not really sure that argument holds much water. They've lost to the eventual 6A champion in 2/3 years they've played in the 6A tournament. 

They do not play a HCC or MIC equivalent regular season schedule. Once the get into the tournament is when that schedule begins. Roncali and Chatard are far from 6A, and although Chatard is always good they would struggle with an HCC schedule because they don’t have the depth. Penn and Lafayette Jeff would be below average too. 

[Footballking16]

15 minutes ago, HomeCookin said:

They do not play a HCC or MIC equivalent regular season schedule. Once the get into the tournament is when that schedule begins. Roncali and Chatard are far from 6A, and although Chatard is always good they would struggle with an HCC schedule because they don’t have the depth. Penn and Lafayette Jeff would be below average too. 

I didn't say they played a MIC or HCC equivalent schedule, I said they played a 6A equivalent schedule.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Footballking16

[BTF]

2 hours ago, temptation said:

One word:  HOMESTEAD…

Right, @BTF?

Right.

[Bash Riprock]

4 hours ago, temptation said:

That too, but Carmel blows a hole in that argument.  I'll actually argue (not that I feel or anyone else should feel) that 5000+ is sort of detrimental to the success of a football program.

Good to know Carmel is handicapped at 5000+ students for football.  Interesting to know the size of their student body doesn't seem to be detrimental with other sports.....sports that require less participation than football.

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Bash Riprock

[Bash Riprock]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

I didn't say they played a MIC or HCC equivalent schedule, I said they played a 6A equivalent schedule.

Agree....they play some of the state's top programs and go outside the state to also play stellar competition....absolutely a 6A schedule and a darn good one too.  

[Bash Riprock]

6 hours ago, temptation said:

I’ve spoken on this in the past.  Once you get above that 2500 student threshold there is a point of diminishing returns.

2500 means you can go 2-3 deep and most positions and that’s good enough.  Little advantage to 4000+ vs 2500 as opposed to 3400 (HSE) vs 1900 (Snider).

 

You do know CG played in and won some state championships in the state's highest classifications at the time (both 5A and 6A) when they had enrollments below 2500?

[Footballking16]

4 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Agree....they play some of the state's top programs and go outside the state to also play stellar competition....absolutely a 6A schedule and a darn good one too.  

In Cathedral's 3 stints at the 6A level

2015: 2 OT loss to Avon in regional final

2016: Drubbing to eventual 6A champion Ben Davis in the regional who went 15-0 and arguably one of the best 6A teams ever

2022: Semi-state loss to eventual 6A Center Grove, a team they beat earlier in the season. Should be noted Cathedral avenged their only regular season loss to Brownsburg the round prior. 

Don't think depth has ever been the root of the problem. It certainly wasn't in 2015 and 2022 and nobody in 6A was touching that 2016 Ben Davis team. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Footballking16

[Komets2727]

6 hours ago, temptation said:

Not a chance.

In your fantasy opinion apparently that is no more important than mine or anyone else’s 

[temptation]

9 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Good to know Carmel is handicapped at 5000+ students for football.  Interesting to know the size of their student body doesn't seem to be detrimental with other sports.....sports that require less participation than football.

 

You can only put 11 varsity football players on the field at once.  Same with basketball.  Two sports in which Carmel is not among the state's elite currently.  Not a coincidence.

You're trying really hard though.  Its cute.

3 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

You do know CG played in and won some state championships in the state's highest classifications at the time (both 5A and 6A) when they had enrollments below 2500?

Yep.  Moore is one hell of a coach.  The exception, not the rule.

Eric Moores don't grow on trees.

[BDGiant93]

On 10/21/2023 at 7:04 PM, Komets2727 said:

Again, using transitive scores, BD literally squeaked by Warren 31-28 and Snider smacked around Warren 42-20 at Warren with 14 of the 20 points being a special teams TD and a pick 6. It just seems like Temptation picks and chooses what he wants to substantiate his argument. We all have differing opinions

CG struggled with LN and Moeller...BD didn't. Well CG smacked LC and BD struggled. Be careful with transitive scores. 

There are a lot of factors that go into games. Matchups, rivalries, injuries, how the day went at school, travel, etc.

[Komets2727]

1 minute ago, BDGiant93 said:

CG struggled with LN and Moeller...BD didn't. Well CG smacked LC and BD struggled. Be careful with transitive scores. 

There are a lot of factors that go into games. Matchups, rivalries, injuries, how the day went at school, travel, etc.

I am using the great and mighty Temptation’s words on transitive scores.

[Footballking16]

5 minutes ago, temptation said:

You can only put 11 varsity football players on the field at once.  Same with basketball.  Two sports in which Carmel is not among the state's elite currently.  Not a coincidence.

You're trying really hard though.  Its cute.

I mean Carmel essentially won basically back to back state titles in 19 and 21 (tourney cancelled in 20 after winning sectional and likely favorite to come out of the North). Carmel might not be the favorite to win 4A this year but they're certainly a top 10 team if not better. 

[Bash Riprock]

11 minutes ago, temptation said:

You can only put 11 varsity football players on the field at once.  Same with basketball.  Two sports in which Carmel is not among the state's elite currently.  Not a coincidence.

You're trying really hard though.  Its cute.

Trying hard, huh?  Maybe you should try harder and think before you expel more hot air at our expense.

Carmel won a state title in basketball in 2021 with an enrollment > 5000.  Same for football in 2019.

https://ihsaapublic.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/Enrollments 19202021.pdf

Carmel was listed with a school enrollment of 5000 starting in 2018.  Take a look at their state championships since 2018. Impressive list.  Do you still think I am trying hard?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carmel_High_School_(Indiana)#:~:text=Wrestling (boys)-,Athletic State Championships,2019%2C and 2020–2021.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Bash Riprock

[Muda69]

11 minutes ago, temptation said:

You can only put 11 varsity football players on the field at once.  Same with basketball. 

What is this 11 on 11 basketball you speak of?

 

[First_Backer_Inside]

20 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

In Cathedral's 3 stints at the 6A level

2015: 2 OT loss to Avon in regional final

2016: Drubbing to eventual 6A champion Ben Davis in the regional who went 15-0 and arguably one of the best 6A teams ever

2022: Semi-state loss to eventual 6A Center Grove, a team they beat earlier in the season. Should be noted Cathedral avenged their only regular season loss to Brownsburg the round prior. 

Don't think depth has ever been the root of the problem. It certainly wasn't in 2015 and 2022 and nobody in 6A was touching that 2016 Ben Davis team. 

They might have been one of the best teams in the nation that year. So much talent and so fun to watch.

[BDGiant93]

33 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

2016: Drubbing to eventual 6A champion Ben Davis in the regional who went 15-0 and arguably one of the best 6A teams ever

That was not the 2017 BD team that went 14-0 and won state. In 2016, the Giants lost to Center Grove in the Semi-State. The 2016 team went 9-4.

11 minutes ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

They might have been one of the best teams in the nation that year. So much talent and so fun to watch.

The 2017 Giants were special. They had a challenge in the Sectional against Warren that year which became the 14-0 Warren team that won state in 2018. Other than that and a tough first half against LC also in the Sectional, the 2017 Giants were not touched.

Edited October 23, 2023 by BDGiant93

[BDGiant93]

32 minutes ago, temptation said:

You can only put 11 varsity football players on the field at once.  Same with basketball.  Two sports in which Carmel is not among the state's elite currently.  Not a coincidence.

You're trying really hard though.  Its cute.

Yep.  Moore is one hell of a coach.  The exception, not the rule.

Eric Moores don't grow on trees.

I would argue that Carmel is still pretty darn elite in basketball. They certainly came the closest margin-wise to beating BD last year. Coach Osborn is a heck of a basketball coach and so was Scott Heady before him.

Your point on the 11 on the field is very valid. I remember having a discussion with Mike Kirschner one time where he talked about the "You have 4000 kids in your school" argument. He said that everyone that everyone that could help the team was pretty much out. I think they had 150 kids out around that time.

[temptation]

34 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Trying hard, huh?  Maybe you should try harder and think before you expel more hot air at our expense.

Carmel won a state title in basketball in 2021 with an enrollment > 5000.  Same for football in 2019.

https://ihsaapublic.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/Enrollments 19202021.pdf

Carmel was listed with a school enrollment of 5000 starting in 2018.  Take a look at their state championships since 2018. Impressive list.  Do you still think I am trying hard?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carmel_High_School_(Indiana)#:~:text=Wrestling (boys)-,Athletic State Championships,2019%2C and 2020–2021.

 

 

Yep.