Temp’s Eliminator Poll (Week 13)

[temptation]

1. Ben Davis
2. East Central
3. Center Grove
4. Bishop Chatard
5. Westfield 
6. Crown Point
7. Fort Wayne Snider
8. New Palestine
9. Decatur Central
10. Bloomington South
11. Merrillville
12. NorthWood
13. Leo
14. Gibson Southern
15. Heritage Hills
16. Indianapolis Lutheran
17. North Posey
18. Adams Central
19. Fort Wayne Luers
20. Knox
21. Lafayette Central Catholic 
22. North Judson 
23. Southmont
24. Sheridan

[BLACKGOLD2007]

That gap between Chatard and Knox.... about what I expected. 

[temptation]

1 hour ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

That gap between Chatard and Knox.... about what I expected. 

Won’t be close.

[BTF]

6 hours ago, temptation said:

Won’t be close.

Chatard dodges East Central next year in 4A? Who will challenge them? New Pal the best bet? 

East Central vs Cathedral for 5A south. In the north it's looking like more of Merrillville and Valpo. Snider's status is unclear at the moment. 

[temptation]

3 minutes ago, BTF said:

Chatard dodges East Central next year in 4A? Who will challenge them? New Pal the best bet? 

East Central vs Cathedral for 5A south. In the north it's looking like more of Merrillville and Valpo. Snider's status is unclear at the moment. 

Let’s get through this year first.

[BTF]

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

Let’s get through this year first.

Fair enough. But the status of East Central, Cathedral, and Chatard is already determined. 

[temptation]

32 minutes ago, BTF said:

Fair enough. But the status of East Central, Cathedral, and Chatard is already determined. 

Does EC get the “they’ll just reload” treatment?

[Lysander]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

Chatard dodges East Central next year in 4A? Who will challenge them? New Pal the best bet? 

East Central vs Cathedral for 5A south. In the north it's looking like more of Merrillville and Valpo. Snider's status is unclear at the moment. 

Chatard played EC during the regular season for a few years in a row just a few years back.  Frankly, between New Pal, Roncalli, Memorial, Reitz and Brebeuf any of them could win the South in 4A over Chatard.  Not to mention any number of other teams could rise.  4A South is a bear. 

Cathedral is dropping down to 5A?  Haven't they earned the prerequisite  2 points to stay up in 6A?

[BTF]

10 minutes ago, Lysander said:

Chatard played EC during the regular season for a few years in a row just a few years back.  Frankly, between New Pal, Roncalli, Memorial, Reitz and Brebeuf any of them could win the South in 4A over Chatard.  Not to mention any number of other teams could rise.  4A South is a bear. 

Cathedral is dropping down to 5A?  Haven't they earned the prerequisite  2 points to stay up in 6A?

Good point, forgot about that. 

2 hours ago, temptation said:

Does EC get the “they’ll just reload” treatment?

I don't see why not. They've established themselves as a "program." They haven't lost more than three games in a season dating back to 2014. And all but one of those seasons they've posted double digit wins. Yes, they seem to reload. 

[temptation]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

Good point, forgot about that. 

I don't see why not. They've established themselves as a "program." They haven't lost more than three games in a season dating back to 2014. And all but one of those seasons they've posted double digit wins. Yes, they seem to reload. 

I guess I can get on board with that but I can’t put them in the same breath as Chatard or Cathedral when it comes to “reloading.”

[BTF]

1 minute ago, temptation said:

I guess I can get on board with that but I can’t put them in the same breath as Chatard or Cathedral when it comes to “reloading.”

The quality of Chatard and Cathedral's "reloading" will normally average out higher than that of East Central. Socioeconomics?

[temptation]

17 minutes ago, BTF said:

The quality of Chatard and Cathedral's "reloading" will normally average out higher than that of East Central. Socioeconomics?

I mean, in part.  I will say that even though they have beefed it up with Moeller and Roncalli, EC still gets 6-7 cupcake games annually…no fault of their own.

I think they could hold their own annually against a Chatard level schedule but am not sure they could survive the grind that Cathedral normally puts themselves through.

I think the cumulative effect (much like I said about Snider if they were in the HCC in that other thread) would take its toll.

If the games were viewed independently of the entire schedule, they would likely be favored every week but that’s not how it works.

Edited November 16, 2023 by temptation

[FastpacedO]

15 hours ago, Lysander said:

Chatard played EC during the regular season for a few years in a row just a few years back.  Frankly, between New Pal, Roncalli, Memorial, Reitz and Brebeuf any of them could win the South in 4A over Chatard.  Not to mention any number of other teams could rise.  4A South is a bear. 

Cathedral is dropping down to 5A?  Haven't they earned the prerequisite  2 points to stay up in 6A?

Yes,  2022 won Sectional (1 point) and Regional (2 points) lost semi-state. 2023 won Sectional (1 point) lost Regional. They have 4 points thus keeping them in 6A.

[Lysander]

43 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

Yes,  2022 won Sectional (1 point) and Regional (2 points) lost semi-state. 2023 won Sectional (1 point) lost Regional. They have 4 points thus keeping them in 6A.

I think that amounts to 3 points based on the way the IHSAA score keeps.  

Each progressive playoff victory, commencing with the Sectional Champuonship, adds another single point.  A Regional Championship adds 1 point to the 1 point from the Sectional Championship previously acquired for a running total of 2 points in totality you’ve earned if you win Regional.

That said, one change I’d suggest to the whole Success Factor dynamic is that the number of points required to stay up be reduced to 1…rather than 2.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Lysander

[FastpacedO]

2 hours ago, Lysander said:

I think that amounts to 3 points based on the way the IHSAA score keeps.  

Each progressive playoff victory, commencing with the Sectional Champuonship, adds another single point.  A Regional Championship adds 1 point to the 1 point from the Sectional Championship previously acquired for a running total of 2 points in totality you’ve earned if you win Regional.

That said, one change I’d suggest to the whole Success Factor dynamic is that the number of points required to stay up be reduced to 1…rather than 2.

I'm an over achiever 🤣

[Lysander]

6 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

I'm an over achiever 🤣

Hmmmm….odd that the IHSAA seems to have quietly changed it to 3 points this time around.  I’m sure it’s a coincidence.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Lysander

[Bash Riprock]

16 hours ago, temptation said:

I mean, in part.  I will say that even though they have beefed it up with Moeller and Roncalli, EC still gets 6-7 cupcake games annually…no fault of their own.

I think they could hold their own annually against a Chatard level schedule but am not sure they could survive the grind that Cathedral normally puts themselves through.

I think the cumulative effect (much like I said about Snider if they were in the HCC in that other thread) would take its toll.

If the games were viewed independently of the entire schedule, they would likely be favored every week but that’s not how it works.

I agree with your comments above.  Yet you ranked them #2 amongst all teams in the state.  Wouldn't such a high ranking justify the exact opposite?  Seems inconsistent.  

[temptation]

17 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I agree with your comments above.  Yet you ranked them #2 amongst all teams in the state.  Wouldn't such a high ranking justify the exact opposite?  Seems inconsistent.  

That’s not how rankings work…but you already knew that.  

[Bash Riprock]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

That’s not how rankings work…but you already knew that.  

I do think the quality of your opponents should factor into any rating and whether a team could compete all season against similar opponents.  I definitely think that factors into most rankings.  The reason why James Madison and Liberty are nowhere close to the top 10. 

[temptation]

1 minute ago, Bash Riprock said:

I do think the quality of your opponents should factor into any rating and whether a team could compete all season against similar opponents.  I definitely think that factors into most rankings.  The reason why James Madison and Liberty are nowhere close to the top 10. 

But playing/winning games HAS to matter.  Otherwise we could put the shoe on the other foot and claim a team like Franklin Central and Noblesville would be 8-9 win teams with East Central's schedule.  Its a resume of the CURRENT team hypothetical, not a "if these two teams switched schedules" ordeal.

Playing a tough schedule is one thing, winning your fair share of those games rewards you with a high ranking.

In a ONE GAME take all scenario, I like East Central's chances against anyone in the state.

[Bash Riprock]

6 minutes ago, temptation said:

But playing/winning games HAS to matter.  Otherwise we could put the shoe on the other foot and claim a team like Franklin Central and Noblesville would be 8-9 win teams with East Central's schedule.  Its a resume of the CURRENT team hypothetical, not a "if these two teams switched schedules" ordeal.

Playing a tough schedule is one thing, winning your fair share of those games rewards you with a high ranking.

In a ONE GAME take all scenario, I like East Central's chances against anyone in the state.

ok...I guess....we just know it takes a full body of season long work to crown any champion.  Most 6A schedules are a meat grinder.  Tremendous respect for EC...I just don't think they are undefeated playing the schedules of BD, CG, Westfield, HSE, Brownsburg, Cathedral, etc.  Which I believe is what you said just a few posts ago....so if I follow your logic in that they can't complete day in and day out with a schedule like Cathedral, then I am a little confused how you place them at #2.  It seems like conflicting logic.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Bash Riprock

[temptation]

16 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

ok...I guess....we just know it takes a full body of season long work to crown any champion.  Most 6A schedules are a meat grinder.  Tremendous respect for EC...I just don't think they are undefeated playing the schedules of BD, CG, Westfield, HSE, Brownsburg, Cathedral, etc.  Which I believe is what you said just a few posts ago....so if I follow your logic in that they can't complete day in and day out with a schedule like Cathedral, then I am a little confused how you place them at #2.  It seems like conflicting logic.

Because they have done all they can do with the schedule in front of them. If they were struggling with teams, then I would not place them nearly as high, but they have passed every test with flying colors and in a vacuum could beat anybody in the state.  They best Moeller more handily than CG did and we have that data point with BD too.

I am not just going to keep shuffling around the 15 schools with the toughest schedule in my rankings.

You sure have a lot to say about someone’s rankings for a guy who has never posted his own.

Edited November 16, 2023 by temptation

[Bash Riprock]

20 minutes ago, temptation said:

Because they have done all they can do with the schedule in front of them. If they were struggling with teams, then I would not place them nearly as high, but they have passed every test with flying colors and in a vacuum could beat anybody in the state.  They best Moeller more handily than CG did and we have that data point with BD too.

I am not just going to keep shuffling around the 15 schools with the toughest schedule in my rankings.

You sure have a lot to say about someone’s rankings for a guy who has never posted his own.

oh...the transitive property stuff....one game and nevermind the competition experienced both before and after.  If we play that game, I could easily find some common opponents between teams and list out different point spreads.  I just don't put much in that stock.

So, you just want to post your views and everyone has to fall in line....ok.

Remember, I wasn't challenging your ranking as that all washes out and everyone has an opinion.  I was trying to understand your logic in a previous post in which your clearly stated EC wouldn't have the results with Cathedral's schedule, but you ranked them #2 anyway.  I am just wanting you to explain your logic when you rank a team second best in the state, but indicate on the same thread they can't compete with a quality 6A type schedule.  Those are your words, not mine.  

Edited November 16, 2023 by Bash Riprock

[Komets2727]

21 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

oh...the transitive property stuff....one game and nevermind the competition experienced both before and after.  If we play that game, I could easily find some common opponents between teams and list out different point spreads.  I just don't put much in that stock.

So, you just want to post your views and everyone has to fall in line....ok.

Remember, I wasn't challenging your ranking as that all washes out and everyone has an opinion.  I was trying to understand your logic in a previous post in which your clearly stated EC wouldn't have the results with Cathedral's schedule, but you ranked them #2 anyway.  I am just wanting you to explain your logic when you rank a team second best in the state, but indicate on the same thread they can't compete with a quality 6A type schedule.  Those are your words, not mine.  

I agree with you, while East Central has had a fabulous season, their schedule is creampuff central outside of Moeller. No way should they be #2 in anyone’s rankings

[BTF]

The meat grinder of playing in the HCC would wear down East Central to the point where they might fall into the middle of the Indianapolis pack. But they didn't play a meat grinder of a schedule. They are healthy, fresh. Given that scenario, I think Temp is trying to say that East Central could beat anyone in the state not named Ben Davis in a one game scenario this time of year. That's how I'm perceiving it. If they played Cathedral's schedule, they might barely be cracking the Top Ten. That would be asking a lot of a school that size.