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Center Grove and Carmel Losing gate revenue by staying in The MIC


Guest DT

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9 minutes ago, Gipper said:

There is no such thing as a perfect world as there will always be arguments for and against basically everything.  Sometimes all we can do is let the cards fall where they may.

Thats ridiculous.

Conference alignment is a highly strategic and thoroughly evaluated process.  

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5 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Trust me, I get all that opposed to the blowhard above who doesn't think I do. But football and men's basketball are king in Indiana and that's what is attractive about the MIC. It would make little sense in my opinion to take a conference demotion which is exactly that if CG's moves to the HCC. The HCC is nowhere near the MIC's level in football and even further behind in basketball. It's like saying Alabama should leave the SEC for say the Pac 12 because the PAC 12 overall is stronger in all sports across the board. It would be preposterous.

Look 5 to 10 years out, even 20 to 30 years out.  That is what schools do when evaluating conference alignment.  Its not about today or 5 years ago or 10 years ago.  The HCC is a conference that is filling up quickly with 3000 plus student schools.  Thats already 600 students larger than CG.  I believe that we will start to see some decay in the big township schools over this same period, with enrollments declining and athletic performance slipping.  You will also likely see better coaching emerge in The HCC as coaches see the conference as the better and more competitive long term choice.  

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11 minutes ago, DT said:

Look 5 to 10 years out, even 20 to 30 years out.  That is what schools do when evaluating conference alignment.  Its not about today or 5 years ago or 10 years ago.  The HCC is a conference that is filling up quickly with 3000 plus student schools.  Thats already 600 students larger than CG.  I believe that we will start to see some decay in the big township schools over this same period, with enrollments declining and athletic performance slipping.  You will also likely see better coaching emerge in The HCC as coaches see the conference as the better and more competitive long term choice.  

And I've been hearing that for years. These HCC school enrollments have been rapidly increasing for over a decade, not just now, and the needle is hardly being pushed. Yes, Avon and Brownsburg have made some headway, but the MIC continues to dominate both basketball and football. Warren Central and Ben Davis aren't going anywhere unless the split high schools (which they won't). If anything, these donut county schools are going to have to split eventually to accommodate the growing populations and it's going to hurt their athletic prowess more than it helps. There's already talk of a third Fishers high school opening, Westfield could very well split into two high schools 10-15 years down the road, and so on and so on. I think it's more than likely you see Lawrence township consolidate to one high school down the road which from an athletic standpoint probably helps that district and North Central has come out of nowhere under the right guidance to show they can potentially become a major player in the MIC.  

Edited by Footballking16
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I think there is a perception that CG needs BD and WC to push them to compete at the highest possible level.  I believe that was the case when Coach Moore arrived in Greenwood.  There was such a huge gap between the mega schools and everyone else that the BD/WC measuring stick applied to any school that wanted to reach the pinnacle of the big school classification.

Times have changed, as has the competitive landscape.  The gap between the megas and the next tier has evaporated.  CG has reached the level of both BD and WC, some might say surpassed them, and no longer needs both as the measuring stick for success .  CG now "is" the measuring stick, to some degree.

The HCC will bring great competition, as good or better overall then The MIC, and significantly higher football gate revenues, as well as much better competition in nearly all other sports.  

 

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4 minutes ago, DT said:

I think there is a perception that CG needs BD and WC to push them to compete at the highest possible level.  I believe that was the case when Coach Moore arrived in Greenwood.  There was such a huge gap between the mega schools and everyone else that the BD/WC measuring stick applied to any school that wanted to reach the pinnacle of the big school classification.

Times have changed, as has the competitive landscape.  The gap between the megas and the next tier has evaporated.  CG has reached the level of both BD and WC, some might say surpassed them, and no longer needs both as the measuring stick for success .  CG now "is" the measuring stick, to some degree.

The HCC will bring great competition, as good or better overall then The MIC, and significantly higher football gate revenues, as well as much better competition in nearly all other sports.  

 

Are perceptions not realities too? Ever think Center Grove is now the "measuring stick" because they compete and beat the remaining top competition by playing in the TOUGHEST conference? 

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20 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

Yes, but we've seen universities align with conferences without hesitation even if it puts their student athletes to ridiculous travels if it means more cash......

No debate to the quality of play in the MIC for football and basketball.  But demographics are changing and we are seeing quality improve in a number of the HCC schools.  It will be interesting to see where the trend goes over the next 5-10 years.

Quality of play is important and perhaps paramount...but $$'s also matter.

I work in finance--$$ sure as hell does matter.

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1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

And I've been hearing that for years. These HCC school enrollments have been rapidly increasing for over a decade, not just now, and the needle is hardly being pushed. Yes, Avon and Brownsburg have made some headway, but the MIC continues to dominate both basketball and football. Warren Central and Ben Davis aren't going anywhere unless the split high schools (which they won't). If anything, these donut county schools are going to have to split eventually to accommodate the growing populations and it's going to hurt their athletic prowess more than it helps. There's already talk of a third Fishers high school opening, Westfield could very well split into two high schools 10-15 years down the road, and so on and so on. I think it's more than likely you see Lawrence township consolidate to one high school down the road which from an athletic standpoint probably helps that district and North Central has come out of nowhere under the right guidance to show they can potentially become a major player in the MIC.  

Just curious if Avon or Brownsburg wins the state title next month if you will still claim the MIC is dominant?  Or will you simply down play it and claim it was a "down year" in the MIC?

I agree we need to see more but the writing is on the wall.  It's a matter of WHEN and not IF...

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1 minute ago, Temptation said:

Just curious if Avon or Brownsburg wins the state title next month if you will still claim the MIC is dominant?  Or will you simply down play it and claim it was a "down year" in the MIC?

I agree we need to see more but the writing is on the wall.  It's a matter of WHEN and not IF...

If Avon or Brownsburg win the state title this year I will congratulate either one on a great season while still acknowledging the that the HCC has a LONG way to go before catching up to the MIC. Basketball there's an even wider gap. The ACC won the CFB playoff last year but is still light years behind the SEC. 

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35 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

If Avon or Brownsburg win the state title this year I will congratulate either one on a great season while still acknowledging the that the HCC has a LONG way to go before catching up to the MIC. Basketball there's an even wider gap. The ACC won the CFB playoff last year but is still light years behind the SEC. 

Follow Danny Kannel, he thinks differently.  😎

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The HCC is definitely light years behind in basketball.  MIC won 4 sectionals in basketball and had the top 5 teams in Sagarin and 7 of the top 10.  Average Sagarin rating was 10.75.  Only North Central was down and they had a team full of sophomores.  The MIC did not lose to teams outside of their conference in the tournament.

 

HCC average rating was 28.25 and they considered last year a great year in basketball.  Zionsville and Avon won sectionals, but I don’t expect either to win this year.  

 

Football this year, HCC average Sagarin is 11.5 in 6A, MIC average 10.375.  I would still argue that even with the HCC having Avon and Brownsburg with their two best teams ever, that the MIC is still better on a down year.  Warren, BD, and CG will all be elite next year with Carmel having a solid season while Avon and Burg take a step back and we’ll just be going in circles again that the HCC is creeping up.  MIC teams are going to widen the gap in 2020, book it.  Again, as I mentioned earlier, I don’t see a shift.  College grads are actually moving back into Indy because they want to be in the city.  The shift you’re expecting to see, I just don’t see it.

 

MIC was 25-5 against the HCC in basketball last year.

 

If you’re only in it for money, move.  If not, the MIC makes sense right now in the two sports that generate the most publicity.

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44 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

If Avon or Brownsburg win the state title this year I will congratulate either one on a great season while still acknowledging the that the HCC has a LONG way to go before catching up to the MIC. Basketball there's an even wider gap. The ACC won the CFB playoff last year but is still light years behind the SEC. 

A long way huh?  So on field results don't matter?  

Avon beat BD handily. (1-0)

Brownsburg controlled the game against BD and held on.  (2-0)

Fishers crushed North Central.  (3-0)

Zionsville beat Pike.  (4-0)

HSE beat Lawrence Central.  (5-0)

NC beat HSE by ONE.  (5-1)

Carmel crushed Noblesville.  (5-2)

 

I understand still being skeptical but a "LONG way?"  Come on.  Stop living in fantasy land over at Cathedral.

 

And Clemson IS the ACC.  Its a poor analogy.  The results above show its more than just one team in the HCC that has had success over the MIC.

 

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1 minute ago, Temptation said:

A long way huh?  So on field results don't matter?  

Avon beat BD handily. (1-0)

Brownsburg controlled the game against BD and held on.  (2-0)

Fishers crushed North Central.  (3-0)

Zionsville beat Pike.  (4-0)

HSE beat Lawrence Central.  (5-0)

NC beat HSE by ONE.  (5-1)

Carmel crushed Noblesville.  (5-2)

 

I understand still being skeptical but a "LONG way?"  Come on.  Stop living in fantasy land over at Cathedral....

 

One season does not define a conference LOL. You're extrapolating data from 7 games in a single year that in no way defines that gap between the HCC and the MIC. The two conference's in terms of success really aren't comparable at this juncture. If this pattern keeps up for another 3-5 years, then yes you can make a legitimate argument. Until then....stop.

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2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

One season does not define a conference LOL. You're extrapolating data from 7 games in a single year that in no way defines that gap between the HCC and the MIC. The two conference's in terms of success really aren't comparable at this juncture. If this pattern keeps up for another 3-5 years, then yes you can make a legitimate argument. Until then....stop.

Just using the most recent data, that's all.  The argument is how far the gap is based on current resumes, no?  Or are you going to change it after the state finals (should an HCC team win) stating that they now need to win 6 in a row to unseat the mighty MIC?

A conference/team is only as good as the current data shows it is.  One year does not make a pattern but you cannot deny that the gap has closed and its not that far fetched to state that its even or even leaning in the other direction.

Once again, we just seem to have differing definitions of the word "dominant."  I use current data while you want to bring the past decade into it.  

Let's talk RIGHT NOW.  The results speak for themselves.

 

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3 minutes ago, Temptation said:

Just using the most recent data, that's all.  The argument is how far the gap is based on current resumes, no?  Or are you going to change it after the state finals (should an HCC team win) stating that they now need to win 6 in a row to unseat the mighty MIC?

A conference/team is only as good as the current data shows it is.  One year does not make a pattern but you cannot deny that the gap has closed and its not that far fetched to state that its even or even leaning in the other direction.

Once again, we just seem to have differing definitions of the word "dominant."  I use current data while you want to bring the past decade into it.  

Let's talk RIGHT NOW.  The results speak for themselves.

 

How else do you define "dominant"?

16/19 titles in football is dominant. It's actually more than dominant.

The last 2 basketball finals have been all-MIC and the MIC has won 6/10 titles including the last 3 and are huge favorites to 4peat. That's dominant.

What is your definition of dominant?

 

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22 minutes ago, HoosierFB_JG said:

College grads are actually moving back into Indy because they want to be in the city.  

They’re primarily moving into downtown. I don’t see how that’s going to benefit the townships that still have a suburban feel to them. 
 

At the end of the day they’ll still move out to the ‘burbs when it’s time to raise kids. 

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6 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

How else do you define "dominant"?

16/19 titles in football is dominant. It's actually more than dominant.

The last 2 basketball finals have been all-MIC and the MIC has won 6/10 titles including the last 3 and are huge favorites to 4peat. That's dominant.

What is your definition of dominant?

 

Based on current resumes, I'd say 5-2 (2 points away from 6-1) is how I begin to define "dominant."

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Just now, Temptation said:

Based on current resumes, I'd say 5-2 (2 points away from 6-1) is how I begin to define "dominant."

That's recency bias, that is not the definition of dominant by any stretch of means. I don't think you know what the word dominant means. You're picking a select (and small sample at that) to push a narrative that doesn't exist. 

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48 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

That's recency bias, that is not the definition of dominant by any stretch of means. I don't think you know what the word dominant means. You're picking a select (and small sample at that) to push a narrative that doesn't exist. 

How about CURRENTLY dominant?  Does that work for you?

How dare I use data points from the last 7 weeks to fit a "narrative?"

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7 minutes ago, Temptation said:

How about CURRENTLY dominant?  Does that work for you?

How dare I use data points from the last 7 weeks to fit a "narrative?"

They have been better this year as in terms of record. That in no way, shape, or form speaks to the dominance that the MIC currently has over the HCC. It's not comparable, you cannot use a small sample space such as 7 games to offset the significant gap between the two conferences. 

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Looks like a few things could be in play for this particular game.  First, Pike was 1-5 going into that one.  The record could be the reason for the low turn out and, conversely IMHO, I think low turnouts do have some (albeit a small percentage) effect on if or how quickly a losing program can turn around.  The OP gives the impression that the CG stands were full, so maybe it's a function of the "football culture" at these schools.  The commute could very well factor in, as well.  I Google mapped these schools, and yeah, a drive basically across Indy during rush hour could be a problem and not everyone has flexible work hours.  I'd bet a good 1/3 of our crowds didn't arrive at games until mid-way 1st quarter.

Whatever the reason, some schools just don't travel well.  Down here, it's typically the schools with teams that are struggling.  There's a few teams where we put more of our people in the stands at JV games than the opponent does for varsity games.  Heck, the turnout in the picture would be considered borderline unacceptable for a jr. high game at our school!  Could just be a general apathetic attitude for the people that could attend but choose not to.  I do know that while the players shouldn't be focusing on the bleachers, they know if the crowd is big/small and if they're into the game or not.  My sons would always take a quick glance before the game just to make sure the wife and I were there.  Don't think that attendance doesn't factor into the motivation of a team.

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32 minutes ago, Bonecrusher said:

Looks like a few things could be in play for this particular game.  First, Pike was 1-5 going into that one.  The record could be the reason for the low turn out and, conversely IMHO, I think low turnouts do have some (albeit a small percentage) effect on if or how quickly a losing program can turn around.  The OP gives the impression that the CG stands were full, so maybe it's a function of the "football culture" at these schools.  The commute could very well factor in, as well.  I Google mapped these schools, and yeah, a drive basically across Indy during rush hour could be a problem and not everyone has flexible work hours.  I'd bet a good 1/3 of our crowds didn't arrive at games until mid-way 1st quarter.

Whatever the reason, some schools just don't travel well.  Down here, it's typically the schools with teams that are struggling.  There's a few teams where we put more of our people in the stands at JV games than the opponent does for varsity games.  Heck, the turnout in the picture would be considered borderline unacceptable for a jr. high game at our school!  Could just be a general apathetic attitude for the people that could attend but choose not to.  I do know that while the players shouldn't be focusing on the bleachers, they know if the crowd is big/small and if they're into the game or not.  My sons would always take a quick glance before the game just to make sure the wife and I were there.  Don't think that attendance doesn't factor into the motivation of a team.

This is not so much about the state of the Pike program, but more about issues of fairness and reciprocity.

At some point, money has to factor in to the equation.

It must be discouraging for CG to invest all this money in such a beautiful facility, and then see its closest allies, its conference brethren, blow it off while the CG caravan travels in full to every road game.  There is something just not right about that.

Truth is, CGs biggest home crowds in the past fifteen years have been against non con schools like Roncalli, Cathedral, Avon and New Pal.  Thats just not right.  

 

Edited by DT
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Whenever I go to a sporting event at Center Grove or Carmel, I always notice how poor their facilities have become. Thanks to DT, I now know that the reason that these 2 schools have fallen on hard times is due to poor visiting fans attendance at football games. So sad.

(p.s. It's sarcasm, people! They have fantastic facilities thanks to big fan support, corporate sponsors & solid tax bases.)  

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1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

They have been better this year as in terms of record. That in no way, shape, or form speaks to the dominance that the MIC currently has over the HCC. It's not comparable, you cannot use a small sample space such as 7 games to offset the significant gap between the two conferences. 

Let's settle on this:

MIC = HISTORICAL dominance

HCC = CURRENT dominance.

 

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