Multiplier vs Success Factor - Multiplier is the Pure Choice

[MDAlum82]

On 10/15/2019 at 11:05 AM, DT said:

I would prefer to see a simple petition process, which has been used before by Mishawaka, if a school chooses to play up for competitive reasons.  

The SF is very sloppy.  Its confusing, and fans don't know where their  school is slotted from year to year.  I doubt it makes much difference to the kids.  Certainly, it will impact the way coaches think about their team.  

I like the simplicity of the Multiplier.  It treats all PPs the same, and all publics the same.  PPs have been calling out publics for years to get better or get beat.  The same can be said for laggard PPs who dont keep up with their private peers.  You mentioned Noll and Park Tudor, both schools that have been on The Contraction Watch list.  Some PPs, like some publics, do not have the resources nor the will to play competitive high school football.  They should drop the sport.  Everyone is treated the same.

 

Curious, how do you come up with "1.65" as the "Pure" number?

[Guest DT]

14 minutes ago, MDAlum82 said:

Curious, how do you come up with "1.65" as the "Pure" number?

1.65 is the number that has been most widely used by states that have either utilized or considered The Multiplier

It also goes further in ensuring that the intended consequence (elevation to the next highest class) is indeed achieved.  1.5 does not always get the job the job done.

 

[itiswhatitis]

18 minutes ago, MDAlum82 said:

Curious, how do you come up with "1.65" as the "Pure" number?

His "daytime job" is math whiz.  You never question a math whiz.  Besides, it's way too complicated for inquiring minds to comprehend.

Edited October 16, 2019 by itiswhatitis

[itiswhatitis]

3 minutes ago, DT said:

1.65 is the number that has been most widely used by states that have either utilized or considered The Multiplier

It also goes further in ensuring that the intended consequence (elevation to the next highest class) is indeed achieved.  1.5 does not always get the job the job done.

 

Just like other states have qualifying formats?  Just like other states don't have all in?  So you just use 1.65 just because other states do?  I'm asking for a friend.

[Guest DT]

3 minutes ago, itiswhatitis said:

Just like other states have qualifying formats?  Just like other states don't have all in?  So you just use 1.65 just because other states do?  I'm asking for a friend.

1.65 is the proposed Multiplier.  It may need to be higher or lower, depending on the current enrollments of the impacted schools.  To be determined.  

[Guest DT]

https://www.cleveland.com/highschoolsports/article/ohsaas-competitive-balance-referendum-the-latest-round-in-a-national-fight-between-public-and-private-schools/

Attached link gives Multiplier use by state.

[Robert]

2 hours ago, DT said:

https://www.cleveland.com/highschoolsports/article/ohsaas-competitive-balance-referendum-the-latest-round-in-a-national-fight-between-public-and-private-schools/

Attached link gives Multiplier use by state.

nstead of the popular flat multiplier for all sports, the OHSAA proposal uses multipliers of two (football), five (basketball, baseball, softball, volleyball) or six (soccer). It will also be applied to public schools with open enrollment.

[Robert]

15 hours ago, BTF said:

You never could get over the fact that the Snider/Luers series was so lopsided. Instead of acknowledging the fact that Snider's success over Luers is due to the size of the schools, you went on recruiting rampage against the Panthers. Certainly Snider's success had nothing to do with a great coaching staff that built one heck of a program, it just HAD to be recruiting. Even with the 1.65 multiplier, Snider is still twice the size of Luers................and that is why the series is so lopsided. Stop the nonsense Robert. 

DT. You said it yourself. Per capita, Fort Wayne shells out more than their fair share of high level football players. If they all went to Snider, the Panthers would literally have 20+ championships. 

I’m not stupid and a lopsided series is understandable.  I have taught in the Fort Wayne area for years, grew up where many of Snider’s best from the 80’s, 90’s, and today grew up and actually attended Snider.   Heck, some of my friends teach there now.   Snider is at least 3 times bigger than Luers, if not 4.  They, like most FW schools, have kids from most all FW zip codes.  That Woodson camp was the greatest recruiting tool Ever, period!

[FastpacedO]

11 hours ago, DT said:

1.65 is the number that has been most widely used by states that have either utilized or considered The Multiplier

It also goes further in ensuring that the intended consequence (elevation to the next highest class) is indeed achieved.  1.5 does not always get the job the job done.

 

 

11 hours ago, DT said:

https://www.cleveland.com/highschoolsports/article/ohsaas-competitive-balance-referendum-the-latest-round-in-a-national-fight-between-public-and-private-schools/

Attached link gives Multiplier use by state.

Yet only 1 state is listed as using a 1.65 multiplier 

[Muda69]

10 hours ago, Robert said:

nstead of the popular flat multiplier for all sports, the OHSAA proposal uses multipliers of two (football), five (basketball, baseball, softball, volleyball) or six (soccer). It will also be applied to public schools with open enrollment.

Good. It is my understanding that under the current open enrollment legislation a government school district is not compelled/forced to accept transfers from other school districts.  Can't they always say "Sorry, we can't accommodate any additional enrollment in the the high school at this time due to X, Y, Z."?

 

[Impartial_Observer]

45 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Good. It is my understanding that under the current open enrollment legislation a government school district is not compelled/forced to accept transfers from other school districts.  Can't they always say "Sorry, we can't accommodate any additional enrollment in the the high school at this time due to X, Y, Z."?

 

Yeaaaaah, they can, but transfers=$.

When this law was passed by the legislature, several schools publicly announced they would not accept transfers, Carmel was one of those schools. Schools like Carmel could probably afford that. I mean seriously if 10 kids transfer in, what's another 60K really going to matter to their coffers. Seymour also opted for the same policy, which wasn't the smartest thing they've ever done. At the time, Seymour was loosing athletes to Brownstown and Trinity Lutheran. Kids were leaving and paying tuition to go to school elsewhere. As vouchers came along a some of P/P schools opted not to accept vouchers, they feared it would leave them forced with abiding by the same rules publics had to abide by. All of that has since changed, school systems are after every nickel they can get. Several years back Brownstown put a billboard right in front of Seymour High School advertising "Free Tuition". It has become a numbers game, and schools want every kid they can get because it means more money. So honestly I get a chuckle every time I hear "well they can recruit", EVERY school in the state recruits. 

[TIFootball]

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 1:39 PM, foxbat said:

That's why Success Factor makes more sense than a multiplier.  It would apply to all schools evenly, not by the privateness or limits of their enrollment, but by the content of their talent.  The biggest issue with Success Factor is not that there's a "bouncing," but that the length is too short so the bouncing is more pronounced.  The way the Success Factor runs now, it's more of an issue that tends to catch schools with a talented class more often than a program that's actually got an advantage or has had a more holistic program growth in competitiveness.  If you go back and look at the IFCA's suggestion, a four-year window ends up with much less bouncing and much less of an issue to impact a school based on a great class.  Frankly, I'd like to see the Success Factor, since the idea is really behind "leveling playing fields" also have a "Failure Factor" component to it too.  If a 2A school, regardless of public/private, can be said to really be 3A in competitive level by the Success Factor, isn't it actually realistic that a 4A school could really be 3A in terms of competitiveness too?  Of course, that's not going to happen because no one wants to be tagged/recognized as being relegated/demoted.

I totally agree with this. I think having a statewide ranking system would be a better fit. Rank all teams, regardless of class 1-317 (or whatever that number is) and divide them up into 6 tourney's. Just for fun, I used the Saragin Ratings (which would need to be improved) and the results were very interesting. Keep the tourney sizes the same as they are now: 6A 32 teams, 5A 34 teams, 4A 61 teams, 3A 64 teams, 2A 63 teams, and 1A 63 teams. The breakdown was a much more competitive route than either M or SF.

In regards to open enrollment, kids are being recruited as early as middle school - especially from the elite middle school teams such as Team Indiana, Indiana Select, FBU Indiana etc. I know Cathedral recruiting was extended to personal invites for these teams to check out the campus and speak with coaches. East Central draws players from Cincinnati. Players from Indy gravitate to Warren Central that's outside their "district". Additionally down south, Columbus schools pull from area schools as they are the power schools in this region. ISHAA will never stop this practice, and open enrollment will always pull serious kids to these power programs which further divides the balance. I see this ranking system, or something like it, the only real way to balance the tourney's.

[Muda69]

14 minutes ago, TIFootball said:

I totally agree with this. I think having a statewide ranking system would be a better fit. Rank all teams, regardless of class 1-317 (or whatever that number is) and divide them up into 6 tourney's. Just for fun, I used the Saragin Ratings (which would need to be improved) and the results were very interesting. Keep the tourney sizes the same as they are now: 6A 32 teams, 5A 34 teams, 4A 61 teams, 3A 64 teams, 2A 63 teams, and 1A 63 teams. The breakdown was a much more competitive route than either M or SF.

Just to clarify the bolded portion of your statement.  By "class" do you mean enrollment?

 

[TIFootball]

Class (6a-1a) or enrollment. Either way works. I used class as this is how the Saragin Ratings are displayed. The selection process could still use SF as a component.

Enrollment - I think with open enrollment and other reasons I wont mention here for sake of getting flamed, is a dead metric to use. 

[FastpacedO]

56 minutes ago, Impartial_Observer said:

Yeaaaaah, they can, but transfers=$.

When this law was passed by the legislature, several schools publicly announced they would not accept transfers, Carmel was one of those schools. Schools like Carmel could probably afford that. I mean seriously if 10 kids transfer in, what's another 60K really going to matter to their coffers. Seymour also opted for the same policy, which wasn't the smartest thing they've ever done. At the time, Seymour was loosing athletes to Brownstown and Trinity Lutheran. Kids were leaving and paying tuition to go to school elsewhere. As vouchers came along a some of P/P schools opted not to accept vouchers, they feared it would leave them forced with abiding by the same rules publics had to abide by. All of that has since changed, school systems are after every nickel they can get. Several years back Brownstown put a billboard right in front of Seymour High School advertising "Free Tuition". It has become a numbers game, and schools want every kid they can get because it means more money. So honestly I get a chuckle every time I hear "well they can recruit", EVERY school in the state recruits. 

Amen! 

[TIFootball]

4 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

Amen! 

 

1 hour ago, Impartial_Observer said:

Yeaaaaah, they can, but transfers=$.

When this law was passed by the legislature, several schools publicly announced they would not accept transfers, Carmel was one of those schools. Schools like Carmel could probably afford that. I mean seriously if 10 kids transfer in, what's another 60K really going to matter to their coffers. Seymour also opted for the same policy, which wasn't the smartest thing they've ever done. At the time, Seymour was loosing athletes to Brownstown and Trinity Lutheran. Kids were leaving and paying tuition to go to school elsewhere. As vouchers came along a some of P/P schools opted not to accept vouchers, they feared it would leave them forced with abiding by the same rules publics had to abide by. All of that has since changed, school systems are after every nickel they can get. Several years back Brownstown put a billboard right in front of Seymour High School advertising "Free Tuition". It has become a numbers game, and schools want every kid they can get because it means more money. So honestly I get a chuckle every time I hear "well they can recruit", EVERY school in the state recruits. 

Exactly my point - it's not about crying about schools recruiting, it about having the end goal reward system, i.e. the tournaments, based on outdated metrics. If schools recruit athletes away from other schools, then let the system take care of who plays where. Rank all teams and divide them up on some form power rankings.

[MarshallCounty]

1 hour ago, TIFootball said:

I totally agree with this. I think having a statewide ranking system would be a better fit. Rank all teams, regardless of class 1-317 (or whatever that number is) and divide them up into 6 tourney's. Just for fun, I used the Saragin Ratings (which would need to be improved) and the results were very interesting. Keep the tourney sizes the same as they are now: 6A 32 teams, 5A 34 teams, 4A 61 teams, 3A 64 teams, 2A 63 teams, and 1A 63 teams. The breakdown was a much more competitive route than either M or SF.

In regards to open enrollment, kids are being recruited as early as middle school - especially from the elite middle school teams such as Team Indiana, Indiana Select, FBU Indiana etc. I know Cathedral recruiting was extended to personal invites for these teams to check out the campus and speak with coaches. East Central draws players from Cincinnati. Players from Indy gravitate to Warren Central that's outside their "district". Additionally down south, Columbus schools pull from area schools as they are the power schools in this region. ISHAA will never stop this practice, and open enrollment will always pull serious kids to these power programs which further divides the balance. I see this ranking system, or something like it, the only real way to balance the tourney's.

When would you divide them up? Prior to the season, mid season, post season?

[TIFootball]

5 minutes ago, MarshallCounty said:

When would you divide them up? Prior to the season, mid season, post season?

Week 9 would be my thought - let the conference schedules play out - so post season.

[TIFootball]

8 minutes ago, MarshallCounty said:

When would you divide them up? Prior to the season, mid season, post season?

Think of it like the NCAA Basketball tourney selection - which region, even which tournament NCAA or NIT … I just think this would bring more balance to the tournaments, and much less 70-0 games. Team want to recruit - knock yourself out. The drive and competition is still there to make the "show" (6a tourney), but for programs rebuilding or going the wrong direction, can still be somewhat competitive in tourney play which i think can help lessor programs build.

[oldtimeqb]

3 minutes ago, TIFootball said:

Think of it like the NCAA Basketball tourney selection - which region, even which tournament NCAA or NIT … I just think this would bring more balance to the tournaments, and much less 70-0 games. Team want to recruit - knock yourself out. The drive and competition is still there to make the "show" (6a tourney), but for programs rebuilding or going the wrong direction, can still be somewhat competitive in tourney play which i think can help lessor programs build.

This is what Illinois does - somewhat.  They determine the 256 playoff schools then determine classes AFTER dividing the 256 schools by enrollment (or multiplier enrollment) into top 32, next 32, etc. until they have 8 classes of 32.

It could make things interesting for schools like Andrean or Southridge who have teetered on that 2A/3A enrollment line.  Illinois states that even if a team is ranked in a 5A or 6A poll throughout the year, they may be classed into a different tournament after the playoff qualifiers are determined. 

[Coach Nowlin]

State funding update:   School corps get their student ADM count done twice and state distributes out the money 2 times.  Once after the September date and another one after February date.  

[TIFootball]

4 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

This is what Illinois does - somewhat.  They determine the 256 playoff schools then determine classes AFTER dividing the 256 schools by enrollment (or multiplier enrollment) into top 32, next 32, etc. until they have 8 classes of 32.

It could make things interesting for schools like Andrean or Southridge who have teetered on that 2A/3A enrollment line.  Illinois states that even if a team is ranked in a 5A or 6A poll throughout the year, they may be classed into a different tournament after the playoff qualifiers are determined. 

I found the Saragin Ratings a decent look at how teams would split out - sure there are some outliers but I think the formula could be improved upon.

[Muda69]

7 minutes ago, TIFootball said:

I found the Saragin Ratings a decent look at how teams would split out - sure there are some outliers but I think the formula could be improved upon.

But, but, according to some on this forum using Sagarin you could have a tournament where a school of 300 has to play a school of 3000.  Is that fair?

 

[TIFootball]

1 minute ago, Muda69 said:

But, but, according to some on this forum using Sagarin you could have a tournament where a school of 300 has to play a school of 3000.  Is that fair?

 

lol - Saragin Ratings is a first look - not a final decider.

I will say this = Do I think a 3a Brownstown Central team could beat a 5a (use to be 6a) Jeffersonville team - ABSOLUTELY!

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

But, but, according to some on this forum using Sagarin you could have a tournament where a school of 300 has to play a school of 3000.  Is that fair?

 

Correct.

There should never be a tournament where a successful school like South Adams has to play against a school like Penn, which would be the case this year if the tournament was based on Sagarin rating and not enrollment. If South Adams become too successful, they should be promoted to the next flight of competition playing against with 500-600 kids. Good thing we already have this and it is known as the success factor.

3 minutes ago, TIFootball said:

lol - Saragin Ratings is a first look - not a final decider.

I will say this = Do I think a 3a Brownstown Central team could beat a 5a (use to be 6a) Jeffersonville team - ABSOLUTELY!

They absolutely could beat Jeffersonville, but that doesn't mean Brownstown should have to play in a tournament with schools like Dwenger, New Pal, and Cathedral simply because they're better than Jeffersonville.