IU vs Notre Dame

[BTF]

How does everyone see this going down? 

I think IU is better than what they showed against Ohio State. It was stated by Cignetti that IU didn't play very well. Normally that's a byproduct of playing a very good football team. In this case, I think think it was a little of that and a little of "uncharacteristic" execution or lack thereof. Mostly on special teams. And Rourke didn't look 100%, still nursing an injury. IU got that first major road game out of the way, therefore should be more prepared this time around. 

Notre Dame has pretty much dominated everyone on their schedule. The Northern Illinois game isn't even relevant after seeing what they did to the rest of their schedule. Going by the eye test, it appears that Notre Dame has as good of a shot to win the whole thing as anyone. I've got Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, and Texas dead locked as the favorites. I do think Cignetti is one of the best coaches in the country, so IU will be ready to go. Although I don't think the gap between the two teams is a major one, I've gotta take the home team by 14. 

Thoughts?

[Irishman]

Cannot disagree. IU has to stop the Notre Dame run game to have a chance. And Leonard is a threat as a runner. IU has been solid against the run this season. I will say that Leonard's passing game has been suspect. He seems to hesitate a lot, and he waits until receivers are completely open before throwing the ball, instead of having the timing of throwing when they break or even leading the runner so he can catch the ball without breaking stride. he is so similar to Ian Book, but is a better runner than Book. For most of the season, I felt IU was the better team. Protecting Rourke will be a huge task. Will Notre Dame blitz much? Or just relay on the front 4? IU struggled most of the Ohio State game with blitz pick up, and for half of the Michigan game. I have not been impressed with what Golden dials up for blitzes. It's rare that the guy blitzing gets there. Far too often it's a safety that blitzes. 

As far as the other teams, I think Oregon is a bit better than all the others. The difference is the QB. Gabriel is really good. Texas' best QB has been on the bench most of the season. Ewers really struggles at times including both games against Georgia. For Georgia, how healthy is Beck? 

[Footballking16]

ND is a better matchup for IU than Ohio State. Outside a gamesmanship 50 yard run at the end of the game, IU held Ohio State to less than 3 ypc all while committing help to Jeremiah Smith over the top. ND doesn't have anywhere near the WR talent, let alone depth that Ohio State does outside and should be able to keep an extra defender in the box to assist with the run. IU statistically has the best run defense in the country and will be by far the best ND has seen all season. Contain Leonard and force ND into obvious passing downs and the D should hold up.

Offensively, IU just can't get behind multiple scores where they have to get off-balance with the play-calling . Despite the 25 yard loss credited to the punter on the drop snap and the bevy of Rourke sacks, IU ran the ball well against Ohio State with both backs despite the end game rushing stats...over 4 ypc. I think Ohio State has a better run D than ND although ND is very solid across the line. IU dictated the game up until the two ST miscues that saw the Hoosiers go down 2 scores quick. From there, Ohio State pinned their ears back and really brought the house as IU had to try and pass to get back in the game. If IU can operate around 3-4 ypc, should be able to extend drives most the night. 

A game like this is probably going to come down to a turnover, both teams take care of the ball extremely well and both are in the top 5 in the country in TO margin. Feels like a 27-21 type game, hope its IU. Should be a good one. 

[Bobref]

3 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Outside a gamesmanship 50 yard run at the end of the game, IU held Ohio State to less than 3 ypc all while committing help to Jeremiah Smith over the top. ND doesn't have anywhere near the WR talent, let alone depth that Ohio State does outside and should be able to keep an extra defender in the box to assist with the run.

Not much of a comparison. ND rush offense is #10 in the country. Ohio State is #59.

[Bash Riprock]

2 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Not much of a comparison. ND rush offense is #10 in the country. Ohio State is #59.

 

2 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Not much of a comparison. ND rush offense is #10 in the country. Ohio State is #59.

Perhaps out of necessity....if the passing game isn't as good.  Perhaps IU stacks the box and makes the Irish pass to win.  We shall see.....

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Not much of a comparison. ND rush offense is #10 in the country. Ohio State is #59.

Ohio State has two of the best receivers in college football. IU sold out to stop Jeremiah Smith from beating them over the top. ND doesn't have anywhere close to the passing attack or outside weapons of Ohio State. Indiana can and will keep an extra defender in the box against ND. That was the point I was trying to make. Notre Dame runs the football extremely well and Love is as good as it gets, but IU's best strength plays into ND's greatest strength. That's why I believe ND is a better matchup for Indiana. 

2 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

 

Perhaps out of necessity....if the passing game isn't as good.  Perhaps IU stacks the box and makes the Irish pass to win.  We shall see.....

exactly

[Bobref]

2 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Perhaps out of necessity....if the passing game isn't as good.  Perhaps IU stacks the box and makes the Irish pass to win.  We shall see.....

My point is this is not a new defensive philosophy you’ve come up with here. Teams have been doing that for the last 12 weeks. And the Irish are still #10 in the country in rushing.

To some extent, this game is strength on strength. ND’s rushing offense against IU’s rushing defense. Especially if there’s typical South Bend Dec. 20 weather. I’m not too concerned about IU’s pass offense against the Irish. I know their QB is good. But their pass offense isn’t in the top 50, and the Irish pass defense is #3 in the country. Bad weather, low scoring game decided, as they usually are, in the trenches.

[PHJIrish]

I thought I'd have two Indiana teams to root for, and then they get paired.  I'm not a prognosticator, but the Irish are 7.5 point favorites at this point and that may be in the ballpark.  IU experienced the Horseshoe, but they've not experienced Notre Dame Stadium.  I'm hoping it's full of Irish fans and it's as loud as it was back in the day.  

GO IRISH!!!!!

[hondo17]

13 minutes ago, Bobref said:

My point is this is not a new defensive philosophy you’ve come up with here. Teams have been doing that for the last 12 weeks. And the Irish are still #10 in the country in rushing.

To some extent, this game is strength on strength. ND’s rushing offense against IU’s rushing defense. Especially if there’s typical South Bend Dec. 20 weather. I’m not too concerned about IU’s pass offense against the Irish. I know their QB is good. But their pass offense isn’t in the top 50, and the Irish pass defense is #3 in the country. Bad weather, low scoring game decided, as they usually are, in the trenches.

You should be worried about their pass offense. Rourke might be the best QB you guys have seen this year.

[Footballking16]

10 minutes ago, Bobref said:

My point is this is not a new defensive philosophy you’ve come up with here. Teams have been doing that for the last 12 weeks. And the Irish are still #10 in the country in rushing.

To some extent, this game is strength on strength. ND’s rushing offense against IU’s rushing defense. Especially if there’s typical South Bend Dec. 20 weather. I’m not too concerned about IU’s pass offense against the Irish. I know their QB is good. But their pass offense isn’t in the top 50, and the Irish pass defense is #3 in the country. Bad weather, low scoring game decided, as they usually are, in the trenches.

Rourke with a clean pocket has absolutely shredded teams. He has the highest QBR rating of any QB in the country. He’s extremely accurate (70%) and doesn’t turn the ball over. The only QB Notre Dame has seen this year in the same breath as Rourke is Tyler Shough from Louisville and he had a big day against the Irish. ND is going to have to dial up some blitzes to get home.

[PHJIrish]

2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Rourke with a clean pocket has absolutely shredded teams. He has the highest QBR rating of any QB in the country. He’s extremely accurate (70%) and doesn’t turn the ball over. The only QB Notre Dame has seen this year in the same breath as Rourke is Tyler Shough from Louisville and he had a big day against the Irish. ND is going to have to dial up some blitzes to get home.

Hopefully he'll throw a couple of those to Xavier Watts and the other outstanding Irish pass defenders.

[PDB26]

15 minutes ago, Bobref said:

My point is this is not a new defensive philosophy you’ve come up with here. Teams have been doing that for the last 12 weeks. And the Irish are still #10 in the country in rushing.

It's nothing new, and the Irish average over 6 yards a carry running into loaded boxes.

[temptation]

Even though I am often in the predicting business I have absolutely no idea how this one is going to play out.  I have doubted both teams all season and they have simply continued to win.  

I'd be shocked if its an IU blowout which is about the only scenario I am confident in.

[hondo17]

2 hours ago, Bobref said:

My point is this is not a new defensive philosophy you’ve come up with here. Teams have been doing that for the last 12 weeks. And the Irish are still #10 in the country in rushing.

To some extent, this game is strength on strength. ND’s rushing offense against IU’s rushing defense. Especially if there’s typical South Bend Dec. 20 weather. I’m not too concerned about IU’s pass offense against the Irish. I know their QB is good. But their pass offense isn’t in the top 50, and the Irish pass defense is #3 in the country. Bad weather, low scoring game decided, as they usually are, in the trenches.

You should be worried about their pass offense. Rourke might be the best QB you guys have seen this year.

[hondo17]

I am confident that IU can win. I think IU would be 11-1 if they played Notre Dames schedule instead of their own. (The loss wouldn't come against northern Illinois though) 

 

It's just getting really old seeing people dismiss indiana, esp from teams whose schedules weren't a juggernaut either. 

 

[temptation]

16 minutes ago, hondo17 said:

I am confident that IU can win. I think IU would be 11-1 if they played Notre Dames schedule instead of their own. (The loss wouldn't come against northern Illinois though) 

 

It's just getting really old seeing people dismiss indiana, esp from teams whose schedules weren't a juggernaut either. 

 

I can think of a dozen teams that would be 11-1 or better with either teams’ schedule.

Edited December 11, 2024 by temptation

[BTF]

2 hours ago, temptation said:

I can think of a dozen teams that would be 11-1 or better with either teams’ schedule.

Sagarin must like Notre Dame's margin of victory since they are #1 in his poll.

[Bash Riprock]

6 hours ago, Bobref said:

My point is this is not a new defensive philosophy you’ve come up with here. Teams have been doing that for the last 12 weeks. And the Irish are still #10 in the country in rushing.

To some extent, this game is strength on strength. ND’s rushing offense against IU’s rushing defense. Especially if there’s typical South Bend Dec. 20 weather. I’m not too concerned about IU’s pass offense against the Irish. I know their QB is good. But their pass offense isn’t in the top 50, and the Irish pass defense is #3 in the country. Bad weather, low scoring game decided, as they usually are, in the trenches.

Great insight. 
 

I was just commenting about the Irish run ranking being so good is because they are stronger with the run than the pass, thus they rely on their strength as they should. 
 

ND’s pass defense is good. Helps when a team plays 2 service academies. USC lit them up for 3 TDs and 360 yds passing. Not a stellar USC team.  
 

I do agree with the weather potential. IU can run the ball as well. Perhaps a reason for their run ranking not as good as ND, is because IU has a more balanced offense. 

[temptation]

21 minutes ago, BTF said:

Sagarin must like Notre Dame's margin of victory since they are #1 in his poll.

Now, you wanna cite Sagarin, lol?

Jesus.

[BTF]

36 minutes ago, temptation said:

Now, you wanna cite Sagarin, lol?

Jesus is good.

Figured you'd like that (did some editing for ya).  Eighty percent of the posters on this forum seem to gravitate toward Sagarin, so why not use it for the sake of debate? I still think Sagarin is 30% pretend. At the end of the day, you're probably right. There might be a dozen teams that would go 11-1 with Notre Dame's schedule. But most of those teams wouldn't match Notre Dame's margin of victory. 

[temptation]

8 minutes ago, BTF said:

Figured you'd like that (did some editing for ya).  Eighty percent of the posters on this forum seem to gravitate toward Sagarin, so why not use it for the sake of debate? I still think Sagarin is 30% pretend. At the end of the day, you're probably right. There might be a dozen teams that would go 11-1 with Notre Dame's schedule. But most of those teams wouldn't match Notre Dame's margin of victory. 

Because once you lose a September game to NORTHERN ILLINOIS and don’t have a CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP game to rely on, every point matters.

 

[PHJIrish]

Notre Dame schedules far into the future.  They have no control over what teams like Florida State, USC, Stanford etc, are going to have 5 or 10 years into the future.  Normally these teams would be formidable, which wasn't the case this year.  You don't get to pick and choose who you play from year to year.  That's one of the problems of being an independent.

[temptation]

6 minutes ago, PHJIrish said:

Notre Dame schedules far into the future.  They have no control over what teams like Florida State, USC, Stanford etc, are going to have 5 or 10 years into the future.  Normally these teams would be formidable, which wasn't the case this year.  You don't get to pick and choose who you play from year to year.  That's one of the problems of being an independent.

Yep, not their fault.

[temptation]

Found this interesting…

Potential second round matchup versus UGA according to Draft Kings.

IU +6.5 

ND -2

[hondo17]

22 hours ago, temptation said:

I can think of a dozen teams that would be 11-1 or better with either teams’ schedule.

That's a valid point but we arent  talking about a dozen teams. I was talking about Indiana and Notre Dame as were others. 

Edited December 12, 2024 by hondo17