Top 100 Teams This Century

[hhpatriot04]

Using Sagarin's ratings from 1999 through 2024, I've calculated a Top 100 list and Top 25 lists for each class.

But how do you compare between years? The calculations are made assuming that the average team in any given year is equivalent. With that defined, we then look at how much better a team in a given year is than the average predictor rating for that year.

I'm curious to hear your feedback. The ratings do not account for any kind of overall "improvement" (Is the average team in 2024 better than the average team in 1999) so earlier years receive no kind of handicap which I may consider introducing... Based on what I've seen, this is very minimal, but it's difficult to quantify.

Also, I've updated The Predictor Tool, so you can predict any potential matchup from 1999 to 2024. Enjoy!

 

---------- Global Top 100 (All Years & Classes) ----------

1. 2017 Ben Davis (6A) 77.9
2. 2018 Warren Central (6A) 77.4
3. 2020 Center Grove (6A) 75.2
4. 2001 Ben Davis (5A) 69.6
5. 2016 Center Grove (6A) 69.5
6. 2016 Warren Central (6A) 69.1
7. 2021 Center Grove (6A) 68.3
8. 2005 Warren Central (5A) 68.2
9. 2011 Carmel (5A) 67.7
10. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 67.5
11. 2006 Warren Central (5A) 66.1
12. 2016 Ben Davis (6A) 66.0
13. 2014 Ben Davis (6A) 65.8
14. 2017 Warren Central (6A) 65.7
15. 2015 Center Grove (6A) 65.0
16. 2014 Warren Central (6A) 64.6
17. 2014 Carmel (6A) 63.9
18. 2001 Warren Central (5A) 62.1
19. 2011 Warren Central (5A) 62.0
20. 2015 Avon (6A) 61.9
21. 2018 Center Grove (6A) 61.8
22. 2019 Carmel (6A) 61.5
23. 2003 Warren Central (5A) 61.5
24. 2018 New Palestine (5A) 61.4
25. 2015 Carmel (6A) 61.3
26. 2013 Center Grove (6A) 61.1
27. 2017 Avon (6A) 61.0
28. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 61.0
29. 2019 Avon (6A) 61.0
30. 2012 Lawr. Central (5A) 60.9
31. 2023 Ben Davis (6A) 60.6
32. 2013 Carmel (6A) 60.5
33. 2019 Brownsburg (6A) 60.1
34. 2021 Westfield (6A) 60.0
35. 2022 Brownsburg (6A) 59.8
36. 2020 Westfield (6A) 59.7
37. 2013 Ben Davis (6A) 59.7
38. 2013 Warren Central (6A) 59.6
39. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 59.6
40. 2015 Warren Central (6A) 59.2
41. 2016 Carmel (6A) 59.2
42. 2013 Pike (6A) 59.1
43. 2019 New Palestine (5A) 59.1
44. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 58.6
45. 2014 Center Grove (6A) 58.4
46. 2021 Hamilton SE (6A) 58.3
47. 2019 Center Grove (6A) 58.2
48. 2023 Brownsburg (6A) 57.7
49. 2020 Carmel (6A) 57.5
50. 2018 Carmel (6A) 57.5
51. 2017 Center Grove (6A) 57.4
52. 2015 Penn (6A) 57.1
53. 2012 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1
54. 2011 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1
55. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 57.1
56. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 56.7
57. 2012 Center Grove (5A) 56.7
58. 2012 Carmel (5A) 56.4
59. 2004 FW Snider (5A) 56.1
60. 2019 Warren Central (6A) 55.9
61. 2023 East Central (4A) 55.8
62. 2020 Brownsburg (6A) 55.7
63. 2014 New Palestine (4A) 55.4
64. 2022 Indy Cathedral (6A) 55.4
65. 2002 Warren Central (5A) 55.3
66. 2015 Ben Davis (6A) 55.3
67. 2021 Brownsburg (6A) 55.1
68. 2019 Ben Davis (6A) 55.1
69. 2014 Penn (6A) 55.0
70. 2022 Hamilton SE (6A) 54.9
71. 2024 Westfield (6A) 54.8
72. 2022 Center Grove (6A) 54.7
73. 2015 New Palestine (5A) 54.7
74. 2011 Lawr. Central (5A) 54.5
75. 2016 Westfield (5A) 54.2
76. 2023 Center Grove (6A) 54.1
77. 2024 Brownsburg (6A) 54.0
78. 2018 Avon (6A) 53.9
79. 2024 Lawr. North (6A) 53.9
80. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 53.9
81. 2023 Indy Cathedral (6A) 53.4
82. 2019 Hamilton SE (6A) 53.4
83. 2014 Avon (6A) 53.4
84. 2024 New Palestine (4A) 53.4
85. 2012 Warren Central (5A) 53.4
86. 2016 FW Snider (5A) 53.3
87. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 53.2
88. 2017 Pike (6A) 53.2
89. 1999 Ben Davis (5A) 53.0
90. 2008 Center Grove (5A) 53.0
91. 2017 Brownsburg (6A) 53.0
92. 2016 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 52.9
93. 2014 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.9
94. 2007 Columbus North (5A) 52.9
95. 2017 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.8
96. 2021 Carmel (6A) 52.6
97. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.5
98. 2002 Penn (5A) 52.5
99. 2021 Merrillville (6A) 52.4
100. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.4

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---------- Top 25 - Class 1A ----------

1. 2015 Lafayette CC (44.4)
2. 2018 Pioneer (41.9)
3. 2022 Indy Lutheran (41.1)
4. 2015 Pioneer (38.2)
5. 2016 Linton (35.7)
6. 2023 Indy Lutheran (35.4)
7. 2011 Lafayette CC (33.9)
8. 2022 Adams Central (33.8)
9. 2014 Pioneer (33.4)
10. 2023 Adams Central (33.1)
11. 2021 Adams Central (32.7)
12. 2009 Lafayette CC (32.2)
13. 2020 Covenant Chr. (31.9)
14. 1999 Lafayette CC (31.8)
15. 2017 Pioneer (31.6)
16. 2012 Lafayette CC (31.5)
17. 2004 Seeger (31.4)
18. 2021 Indpls. Lutheran (30.8)
19. 2014 Winamac (30.3)
20. 2016 Lafayette CC (29.8)
21. 2018 Adams Central (29.7)
22. 2020 South Adams (29.4)
23. 2024 North Judson (29.1)
24. 2010 Lafayette CC (29.0)
25. 2024 Providence (28.6)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 2A ----------

1. 2001 FW Luers (51.5)
2. 2000 Ev. Mater Dei (46.3)
3. 2001 Ev. Mater Dei (43.4)
4. 2000 FW Luers (42.5)
5. 2011 FW Luers (39.9)
6. 2012 FW Luers (37.9)
7. 2012 Indpls. Ritter (36.2)
8. 2005 Jimtown (36.2)
9. 2000 Jimtown (35.9)
10. 2010 FW Luers (35.7)
11. 2018 Western Boone (35.7)
12. 1999 Ev. Mater Dei (34.9)
13. 2014 Rensselaer (34.9)
14. 1999 FW Luers (33.9)
15. 2011 Ev. Mater Dei (33.7)
16. 2019 Lewis Cass (33.5)
17. 2001 Jimtown (33.2)
18. 2015 Monrovia (32.5)
19. 2013 Indpls. Ritter (31.7)
20. 2006 Harding (31.4)
21. 2014 Lafayette CC (31.2)
22. 2017 Eastbrook (31.1)
23. 2024 Adams Central (31.0)
24. 2002 North Judson (30.9)
25. 2012 Ev. Mater Dei (30.6)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 3A ----------

1. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (58.6)
2. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (52.5)
3. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (52.4)
4. 2017 West Lafayette (49.5)
5. 2021 Gibson Southern (49.1)
6. 2011 Indpls. Chatard (45.2)
7. 2018 Ev. Memorial (45.0)
8. 2018 West Lafayette (44.9)
9. 2016 FW Concordia (44.9)
10. 2015 Indpls. Chatard (44.5)
11. 2006 Norwell (44.2)
12. 2018 Indpls. Chatard (44.2)
13. 2023 Indy Chatard (43.5)
14. 2024 Heritage Hills (43.4)
15. 1999 I. Roncalli (43.0)
16. 2017 Gibson Southern (42.7)
17. 2010 Indpls. Chatard (42.6)
18. 2003 Indpls. Chatard (41.9)
19. 2019 West Lafayette (41.2)
20. 2022 Indy Chatard (41.1)
21. 2006 Indpls. Chatard (40.7)
22. 2022 West Lafayette (39.8)
23. 2021 Brebeuf Jesuit (39.4)
24. 2005 Griffith (39.3)
25. 2022 Norwell (38.8)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 4A ----------

1. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (56.7)
2. 2023 East Central (55.8)
3. 2014 New Palestine (55.4)
4. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (53.9)
5. 2024 New Palestine (53.4)
6. 2006 Indpls. Cathedral (51.9)
7. 2020 Indpls. Roncalli (51.5)
8. 2014 Columbus East (50.6)
9. 2021 Indpls. Roncalli (50.5)
10. 2022 New Palestine (49.8)
11. 2007 Indpls. Cathedral (47.4)
12. 2009 FW Dwenger (46.1)
13. 2015 FW Dwenger (46.0)
14. 2022 East Central (46.0)
15. 2010 FW Dwenger (45.8)
16. 2009 Ev. Reitz (45.5)
17. 2010 Indpls. Cathedral (45.2)
18. 2006 Concord (45.0)
19. 1999 I. Cathedral (44.9)
20. 2022 Indy Roncalli (44.4)
21. 2018 FW Dwenger (44.3)
22. 2020 Mooresville (44.3)
23. 2024 Indy Chatard (43.7)
24. 2000 East Noble (43.6)
25. 2008 Indpls. Cathedral (43.6)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 5A ----------

1. 2001 Ben Davis (69.6)
2. 2005 Warren Central (68.2)
3. 2011 Carmel (67.7)
4. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (67.5)
5. 2006 Warren Central (66.1)
6. 2001 Warren Central (62.1)
7. 2011 Warren Central (62.0)
8. 2003 Warren Central (61.5)
9. 2018 New Palestine (61.4)
10. 2012 Lawr. Central (60.9)
11. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (59.6)
12. 2019 New Palestine (59.1)
13. 2012 Ben Davis (57.1)
14. 2011 Ben Davis (57.1)
15. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (57.1)
16. 2012 Center Grove (56.7)
17. 2012 Carmel (56.4)
18. 2004 FW Snider (56.1)
19. 2002 Warren Central (55.3)
20. 2015 New Palestine (54.7)
21. 2011 Lawr. Central (54.5)
22. 2016 Westfield (54.2)
23. 2012 Warren Central (53.4)
24. 2016 FW Snider (53.3)
25. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (53.2)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 6A ----------

1. 2017 Ben Davis (77.9)
2. 2018 Warren Central (77.4)
3. 2020 Center Grove (75.2)
4. 2016 Center Grove (69.5)
5. 2016 Warren Central (69.1)
6. 2021 Center Grove (68.3)
7. 2016 Ben Davis (66.0)
8. 2014 Ben Davis (65.8)
9. 2017 Warren Central (65.7)
10. 2015 Center Grove (65.0)
11. 2014 Warren Central (64.6)
12. 2014 Carmel (63.9)
13. 2015 Avon (61.9)
14. 2018 Center Grove (61.8)
15. 2019 Carmel (61.5)
16. 2015 Carmel (61.3)
17. 2013 Center Grove (61.1)
18. 2017 Avon (61.0)
19. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (61.0)
20. 2019 Avon (61.0)
21. 2023 Ben Davis (60.6)
22. 2013 Carmel (60.5)
23. 2019 Brownsburg (60.1)
24. 2021 Westfield (60.0)
25. 2022 Brownsburg (59.8)

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[temptation]

9 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Using Sagarin's ratings from 1999 through 2024, I've calculated a Top 100 list and Top 25 lists for each class.

But how do you compare between years? The calculations are made assuming that the average team in any given year is equivalent. With that defined, we then look at how much better a team in a given year is than the average predictor rating for that year.

I'm curious to hear your feedback. The ratings do not account for any kind of overall "improvement" (Is the average team in 2024 better than the average team in 1999) so earlier years receive no kind of handicap which I may consider introducing... Based on what I've seen, this is very minimal, but it's difficult to quantify.

Also, I've updated The Predictor Tool, so you can predict any potential matchup from 1999 to 2024. Enjoy!

 

---------- Global Top 100 (All Years & Classes) ----------

1. 2017 Ben Davis (6A) 77.9
2. 2018 Warren Central (6A) 77.4
3. 2020 Center Grove (6A) 75.2
4. 2001 Ben Davis (5A) 69.6
5. 2016 Center Grove (6A) 69.5
6. 2016 Warren Central (6A) 69.1
7. 2021 Center Grove (6A) 68.3
8. 2005 Warren Central (5A) 68.2
9. 2011 Carmel (5A) 67.7
10. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 67.5
11. 2006 Warren Central (5A) 66.1
12. 2016 Ben Davis (6A) 66.0
13. 2014 Ben Davis (6A) 65.8
14. 2017 Warren Central (6A) 65.7
15. 2015 Center Grove (6A) 65.0
16. 2014 Warren Central (6A) 64.6
17. 2014 Carmel (6A) 63.9
18. 2001 Warren Central (5A) 62.1
19. 2011 Warren Central (5A) 62.0
20. 2015 Avon (6A) 61.9
21. 2018 Center Grove (6A) 61.8
22. 2019 Carmel (6A) 61.5
23. 2003 Warren Central (5A) 61.5
24. 2018 New Palestine (5A) 61.4
25. 2015 Carmel (6A) 61.3
26. 2013 Center Grove (6A) 61.1
27. 2017 Avon (6A) 61.0
28. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 61.0
29. 2019 Avon (6A) 61.0
30. 2012 Lawr. Central (5A) 60.9
31. 2023 Ben Davis (6A) 60.6
32. 2013 Carmel (6A) 60.5
33. 2019 Brownsburg (6A) 60.1
34. 2021 Westfield (6A) 60.0
35. 2022 Brownsburg (6A) 59.8
36. 2020 Westfield (6A) 59.7
37. 2013 Ben Davis (6A) 59.7
38. 2013 Warren Central (6A) 59.6
39. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 59.6
40. 2015 Warren Central (6A) 59.2
41. 2016 Carmel (6A) 59.2
42. 2013 Pike (6A) 59.1
43. 2019 New Palestine (5A) 59.1
44. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 58.6
45. 2014 Center Grove (6A) 58.4
46. 2021 Hamilton SE (6A) 58.3
47. 2019 Center Grove (6A) 58.2
48. 2023 Brownsburg (6A) 57.7
49. 2020 Carmel (6A) 57.5
50. 2018 Carmel (6A) 57.5
51. 2017 Center Grove (6A) 57.4
52. 2015 Penn (6A) 57.1
53. 2012 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1
54. 2011 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1
55. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 57.1
56. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 56.7
57. 2012 Center Grove (5A) 56.7
58. 2012 Carmel (5A) 56.4
59. 2004 FW Snider (5A) 56.1
60. 2019 Warren Central (6A) 55.9
61. 2023 East Central (4A) 55.8
62. 2020 Brownsburg (6A) 55.7
63. 2014 New Palestine (4A) 55.4
64. 2022 Indy Cathedral (6A) 55.4
65. 2002 Warren Central (5A) 55.3
66. 2015 Ben Davis (6A) 55.3
67. 2021 Brownsburg (6A) 55.1
68. 2019 Ben Davis (6A) 55.1
69. 2014 Penn (6A) 55.0
70. 2022 Hamilton SE (6A) 54.9
71. 2024 Westfield (6A) 54.8
72. 2022 Center Grove (6A) 54.7
73. 2015 New Palestine (5A) 54.7
74. 2011 Lawr. Central (5A) 54.5
75. 2016 Westfield (5A) 54.2
76. 2023 Center Grove (6A) 54.1
77. 2024 Brownsburg (6A) 54.0
78. 2018 Avon (6A) 53.9
79. 2024 Lawr. North (6A) 53.9
80. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 53.9
81. 2023 Indy Cathedral (6A) 53.4
82. 2019 Hamilton SE (6A) 53.4
83. 2014 Avon (6A) 53.4
84. 2024 New Palestine (4A) 53.4
85. 2012 Warren Central (5A) 53.4
86. 2016 FW Snider (5A) 53.3
87. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 53.2
88. 2017 Pike (6A) 53.2
89. 1999 Ben Davis (5A) 53.0
90. 2008 Center Grove (5A) 53.0
91. 2017 Brownsburg (6A) 53.0
92. 2016 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 52.9
93. 2014 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.9
94. 2007 Columbus North (5A) 52.9
95. 2017 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.8
96. 2021 Carmel (6A) 52.6
97. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.5
98. 2002 Penn (5A) 52.5
99. 2021 Merrillville (6A) 52.4
100. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.4

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---------- Top 25 - Class 1A ----------

1. 2015 Lafayette CC (44.4)
2. 2018 Pioneer (41.9)
3. 2022 Indy Lutheran (41.1)
4. 2015 Pioneer (38.2)
5. 2016 Linton (35.7)
6. 2023 Indy Lutheran (35.4)
7. 2011 Lafayette CC (33.9)
8. 2022 Adams Central (33.8)
9. 2014 Pioneer (33.4)
10. 2023 Adams Central (33.1)
11. 2021 Adams Central (32.7)
12. 2009 Lafayette CC (32.2)
13. 2020 Covenant Chr. (31.9)
14. 1999 Lafayette CC (31.8)
15. 2017 Pioneer (31.6)
16. 2012 Lafayette CC (31.5)
17. 2004 Seeger (31.4)
18. 2021 Indpls. Lutheran (30.8)
19. 2014 Winamac (30.3)
20. 2016 Lafayette CC (29.8)
21. 2018 Adams Central (29.7)
22. 2020 South Adams (29.4)
23. 2024 North Judson (29.1)
24. 2010 Lafayette CC (29.0)
25. 2024 Providence (28.6)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 2A ----------

1. 2001 FW Luers (51.5)
2. 2000 Ev. Mater Dei (46.3)
3. 2001 Ev. Mater Dei (43.4)
4. 2000 FW Luers (42.5)
5. 2011 FW Luers (39.9)
6. 2012 FW Luers (37.9)
7. 2012 Indpls. Ritter (36.2)
8. 2005 Jimtown (36.2)
9. 2000 Jimtown (35.9)
10. 2010 FW Luers (35.7)
11. 2018 Western Boone (35.7)
12. 1999 Ev. Mater Dei (34.9)
13. 2014 Rensselaer (34.9)
14. 1999 FW Luers (33.9)
15. 2011 Ev. Mater Dei (33.7)
16. 2019 Lewis Cass (33.5)
17. 2001 Jimtown (33.2)
18. 2015 Monrovia (32.5)
19. 2013 Indpls. Ritter (31.7)
20. 2006 Harding (31.4)
21. 2014 Lafayette CC (31.2)
22. 2017 Eastbrook (31.1)
23. 2024 Adams Central (31.0)
24. 2002 North Judson (30.9)
25. 2012 Ev. Mater Dei (30.6)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 3A ----------

1. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (58.6)
2. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (52.5)
3. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (52.4)
4. 2017 West Lafayette (49.5)
5. 2021 Gibson Southern (49.1)
6. 2011 Indpls. Chatard (45.2)
7. 2018 Ev. Memorial (45.0)
8. 2018 West Lafayette (44.9)
9. 2016 FW Concordia (44.9)
10. 2015 Indpls. Chatard (44.5)
11. 2006 Norwell (44.2)
12. 2018 Indpls. Chatard (44.2)
13. 2023 Indy Chatard (43.5)
14. 2024 Heritage Hills (43.4)
15. 1999 I. Roncalli (43.0)
16. 2017 Gibson Southern (42.7)
17. 2010 Indpls. Chatard (42.6)
18. 2003 Indpls. Chatard (41.9)
19. 2019 West Lafayette (41.2)
20. 2022 Indy Chatard (41.1)
21. 2006 Indpls. Chatard (40.7)
22. 2022 West Lafayette (39.8)
23. 2021 Brebeuf Jesuit (39.4)
24. 2005 Griffith (39.3)
25. 2022 Norwell (38.8)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 4A ----------

1. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (56.7)
2. 2023 East Central (55.8)
3. 2014 New Palestine (55.4)
4. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (53.9)
5. 2024 New Palestine (53.4)
6. 2006 Indpls. Cathedral (51.9)
7. 2020 Indpls. Roncalli (51.5)
8. 2014 Columbus East (50.6)
9. 2021 Indpls. Roncalli (50.5)
10. 2022 New Palestine (49.8)
11. 2007 Indpls. Cathedral (47.4)
12. 2009 FW Dwenger (46.1)
13. 2015 FW Dwenger (46.0)
14. 2022 East Central (46.0)
15. 2010 FW Dwenger (45.8)
16. 2009 Ev. Reitz (45.5)
17. 2010 Indpls. Cathedral (45.2)
18. 2006 Concord (45.0)
19. 1999 I. Cathedral (44.9)
20. 2022 Indy Roncalli (44.4)
21. 2018 FW Dwenger (44.3)
22. 2020 Mooresville (44.3)
23. 2024 Indy Chatard (43.7)
24. 2000 East Noble (43.6)
25. 2008 Indpls. Cathedral (43.6)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 5A ----------

1. 2001 Ben Davis (69.6)
2. 2005 Warren Central (68.2)
3. 2011 Carmel (67.7)
4. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (67.5)
5. 2006 Warren Central (66.1)
6. 2001 Warren Central (62.1)
7. 2011 Warren Central (62.0)
8. 2003 Warren Central (61.5)
9. 2018 New Palestine (61.4)
10. 2012 Lawr. Central (60.9)
11. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (59.6)
12. 2019 New Palestine (59.1)
13. 2012 Ben Davis (57.1)
14. 2011 Ben Davis (57.1)
15. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (57.1)
16. 2012 Center Grove (56.7)
17. 2012 Carmel (56.4)
18. 2004 FW Snider (56.1)
19. 2002 Warren Central (55.3)
20. 2015 New Palestine (54.7)
21. 2011 Lawr. Central (54.5)
22. 2016 Westfield (54.2)
23. 2012 Warren Central (53.4)
24. 2016 FW Snider (53.3)
25. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (53.2)

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---------- Top 25 - Class 6A ----------

1. 2017 Ben Davis (77.9)
2. 2018 Warren Central (77.4)
3. 2020 Center Grove (75.2)
4. 2016 Center Grove (69.5)
5. 2016 Warren Central (69.1)
6. 2021 Center Grove (68.3)
7. 2016 Ben Davis (66.0)
8. 2014 Ben Davis (65.8)
9. 2017 Warren Central (65.7)
10. 2015 Center Grove (65.0)
11. 2014 Warren Central (64.6)
12. 2014 Carmel (63.9)
13. 2015 Avon (61.9)
14. 2018 Center Grove (61.8)
15. 2019 Carmel (61.5)
16. 2015 Carmel (61.3)
17. 2013 Center Grove (61.1)
18. 2017 Avon (61.0)
19. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (61.0)
20. 2019 Avon (61.0)
21. 2023 Ben Davis (60.6)
22. 2013 Carmel (60.5)
23. 2019 Brownsburg (60.1)
24. 2021 Westfield (60.0)
25. 2022 Brownsburg (59.8)

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Great stuff.  Thanks for sharing.

[First_Backer_Inside]

Had to play 2015 Pioneer and LCC in the same year. Those teams made playing football not fun. Both had dudes that made fast people look...not fast.

[Daniel_Bragg]

None of the Sheridan teams from 2005-2007 on the list is wild.  It is what it is I guess.

[Football Fanatic]

11 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

---------- Global Top 100 (All Years & Classes) ----------

1. 2017 Ben Davis (6A) 77.9
2. 2018 Warren Central (6A) 77.4
3. 2020 Center Grove (6A) 75.2
4. 2001 Ben Davis (5A) 69.6
5. 2016 Center Grove (6A) 69.5
6. 2016 Warren Central (6A) 69.1
7. 2021 Center Grove (6A) 68.3
8. 2005 Warren Central (5A) 68.2
9. 2011 Carmel (5A) 67.7
10. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 67.5
11. 2006 Warren Central (5A) 66.1
12. 2016 Ben Davis (6A) 66.0
13. 2014 Ben Davis (6A) 65.8
14. 2017 Warren Central (6A) 65.7
15. 2015 Center Grove (6A) 65.0
16. 2014 Warren Central (6A) 64.6
17. 2014 Carmel (6A) 63.9
18. 2001 Warren Central (5A) 62.1
19. 2011 Warren Central (5A) 62.0
20. 2015 Avon (6A) 61.9
21. 2018 Center Grove (6A) 61.8
22. 2019 Carmel (6A) 61.5
23. 2003 Warren Central (5A) 61.5
24. 2018 New Palestine (5A) 61.4
25. 2015 Carmel (6A) 61.3
26. 2013 Center Grove (6A) 61.1
27. 2017 Avon (6A) 61.0
28. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 61.0
29. 2019 Avon (6A) 61.0
30. 2012 Lawr. Central (5A) 60.9
31. 2023 Ben Davis (6A) 60.6
32. 2013 Carmel (6A) 60.5
33. 2019 Brownsburg (6A) 60.1
34. 2021 Westfield (6A) 60.0
35. 2022 Brownsburg (6A) 59.8
36. 2020 Westfield (6A) 59.7
37. 2013 Ben Davis (6A) 59.7
38. 2013 Warren Central (6A) 59.6
39. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 59.6
40. 2015 Warren Central (6A) 59.2
41. 2016 Carmel (6A) 59.2
42. 2013 Pike (6A) 59.1
43. 2019 New Palestine (5A) 59.1
44. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 58.6
45. 2014 Center Grove (6A) 58.4
46. 2021 Hamilton SE (6A) 58.3
47. 2019 Center Grove (6A) 58.2
48. 2023 Brownsburg (6A) 57.7
49. 2020 Carmel (6A) 57.5
50. 2018 Carmel (6A) 57.5
51. 2017 Center Grove (6A) 57.4
52. 2015 Penn (6A) 57.1
53. 2012 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1
54. 2011 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1
55. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 57.1
56. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 56.7
57. 2012 Center Grove (5A) 56.7
58. 2012 Carmel (5A) 56.4
59. 2004 FW Snider (5A) 56.1
60. 2019 Warren Central (6A) 55.9
61. 2023 East Central (4A) 55.8
62. 2020 Brownsburg (6A) 55.7
63. 2014 New Palestine (4A) 55.4
64. 2022 Indy Cathedral (6A) 55.4
65. 2002 Warren Central (5A) 55.3
66. 2015 Ben Davis (6A) 55.3
67. 2021 Brownsburg (6A) 55.1
68. 2019 Ben Davis (6A) 55.1
69. 2014 Penn (6A) 55.0
70. 2022 Hamilton SE (6A) 54.9
71. 2024 Westfield (6A) 54.8
72. 2022 Center Grove (6A) 54.7
73. 2015 New Palestine (5A) 54.7
74. 2011 Lawr. Central (5A) 54.5
75. 2016 Westfield (5A) 54.2
76. 2023 Center Grove (6A) 54.1
77. 2024 Brownsburg (6A) 54.0
78. 2018 Avon (6A) 53.9
79. 2024 Lawr. North (6A) 53.9
80. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 53.9
81. 2023 Indy Cathedral (6A) 53.4
82. 2019 Hamilton SE (6A) 53.4
83. 2014 Avon (6A) 53.4
84. 2024 New Palestine (4A) 53.4
85. 2012 Warren Central (5A) 53.4
86. 2016 FW Snider (5A) 53.3
87. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 53.2
88. 2017 Pike (6A) 53.2
89. 1999 Ben Davis (5A) 53.0
90. 2008 Center Grove (5A) 53.0
91. 2017 Brownsburg (6A) 53.0
92. 2016 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 52.9
93. 2014 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.9
94. 2007 Columbus North (5A) 52.9
95. 2017 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.8
96. 2021 Carmel (6A) 52.6
97. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.5
98. 2002 Penn (5A) 52.5
99. 2021 Merrillville (6A) 52.4
100. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.4
 

Good list overall. Interesting to think about and use it for hypothetical matchups.

Initial reactions: 2023 East Central should be higher. And not having 2007 or 2009 Reitz in the top 100 is crazy to me.

[First_Backer_Inside]

1 hour ago, Daniel_Bragg said:

None of the Sheridan teams from 2005-2007 on the list is wild.  It is what it is I guess.

Agreed, my guess is since based off of Sagarin point differential and faster paced offense is going to benefit the more recent teams in this than teams in the past. Reasoning for a lot of those late 90's to early 2000's really good teams not making lists.

[US31]

Can't really argue with the top 3.  After that, I think there could be a lot of arguments made for some drastically different opinions. 

2024 BBurg is much too low in my opinion....

Edited May 7 by US31

[tango]

@hhpatriot04 A little surprised 2017 Gibson Southern is in the 3A Top 25 (#16), but the 2017 3A state champs (Ev. Memorial) aren't, especially when Ev. Memorial beat Gibson Southern in the Sectional final. 

[oldtimeqb]

1 hour ago, tango said:

@hhpatriot04 A little surprised 2017 Gibson Southern is in the 3A Top 25 (#16), but the 2017 3A state champs (Ev. Memorial) aren't, especially when Ev. Memorial beat Gibson Southern in the Sectional final. 

I'm hoping the 2017 "West Lafayette" was a typo.  Either 2017 Ev. Memorial or 2009 West Lafayette (w/ Mr. Football Wodicka at QB).  I could be convinced of either of those.  

2017 WL was 11-2 and lost in regional.  A good year, but would be an outlier amongst the other state winners at the top. 

[23andCounting]

5 hours ago, temptation said:

Great stuff.  Thanks for sharing.

C'mon, it's fun for pretend. Hard to take seriously though. So many flaws with Sagarin to put any stock in this. 

[TigerFan20]

14 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Also, I've updated The Predictor Tool, so you can predict any potential matchup from 1999 to 2024. Enjoy!

Will be fun to use this year, I love the new setup.

[hhpatriot04]

7 hours ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

Agreed, my guess is since based off of Sagarin point differential and faster paced offense is going to benefit the more recent teams in this than teams in the past. Reasoning for a lot of those late 90's to early 2000's really good teams not making lists.

I want to hear other voices and delve into the data further. I think that 5A and 6A may be overrepresented because there is such a fall of between the top teams and the average teams. Some deeper statistical analysis would factor in that anomaly... I need to do my homework or need input from a resident statistican.

Not having 2001-2004 Chatard, Heritage Hills, Danville and Andrean in the 3A top 25 is a head scratcher for me.

The question for me is: How much better is the average team in 2024 than 1999? One way to account for this would be to look at the IN HS Track and Field records over the years to see how much better athletics in the state has become.

[First_Backer_Inside]

1 hour ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I want to hear other voices and delve into the data further. I think that 5A and 6A may be overrepresented because there is such a fall of between the top teams and the average teams. Some deeper statistical analysis would factor in that anomaly... I need to do my homework or need input from a resident statistican.

Not having 2001-2004 Chatard, Heritage Hills, Danville and Andrean in the 3A top 25 is a head scratcher for me.

The question for me is: How much better is the average team in 2024 than 1999? One way to account for this would be to look at the IN HS Track and Field records over the years to see how much better athletics in the state has become.

Not a bad place to start with track and field records. 

Might have to ask not how much better, but rather is the average team in 2024 actually better than that of 1999. I would say one could make the argument that the difference in the top level teams of today and bottom level is a wider gap than it was in 1999. I have nothing statistically to back it up but it felt like the classes were more competitive throughout at least in sectional play those earlier years being measured here. Of course there wasn't any success factor, so you had a lot of the same teams winning state every year, but it felt harder to find a favorite for the majority of the sectionals. 

No matter what you find, this is an interesting and cool thing you've done here. Kind of reminds me of the debates people have about the different great college teams that people try to predict as being the best such as the '01 Hurricanes, '04 Trojans, '19 LSU Tigers, and '08 Gators. I'm sure there are some wiser minds on here that know of great teams further back, but those are kind of the few that I grew up getting to watch. 

[hhpatriot04]

I'll build in functionality to see a specific team's rankings since 1999. In the meantime, request it and I'll post them here.

[Footballking16]

14 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I want to hear other voices and delve into the data further. I think that 5A and 6A may be overrepresented because there is such a fall of between the top teams and the average teams. Some deeper statistical analysis would factor in that anomaly... I need to do my homework or need input from a resident statistican.

Not having 2001-2004 Chatard, Heritage Hills, Danville and Andrean in the 3A top 25 is a head scratcher for me.

The question for me is: How much better is the average team in 2024 than 1999? One way to account for this would be to look at the IN HS Track and Field records over the years to see how much better athletics in the state has become.

I'm taking either of the 05 or 06 Warren teams over the field. 

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

I'm taking either of the 05 or 06 Warren teams over the field. 

I think the data is definitely skewed to benefit recent 6A and 5A teams. The question is why and how to address it. In my early analysis the ratings from those teams don't fit a bell curve. The curve looks very skewed with very good teams on one side, then a massive drop off. Normalizing the data should help for better comparison.

[temptation]

16 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I want to hear other voices and delve into the data further. I think that 5A and 6A may be overrepresented because there is such a fall of between the top teams and the average teams. Some deeper statistical analysis would factor in that anomaly... I need to do my homework or need input from a resident statistican.

Not having 2001-2004 Chatard, Heritage Hills, Danville and Andrean in the 3A top 25 is a head scratcher for me.

The question for me is: How much better is the average team in 2024 than 1999? One way to account for this would be to look at the IN HS Track and Field records over the years to see how much better athletics in the state has become.

Track and field records are being broken at an all-time rate but (hater alert) a large part in those record being broken is advancements in shoe technology and track surfaces.

 

 

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

I'm taking either of the 05 or 06 Warren teams over the field. 

Likewise.

Edited May 8 by temptation

[Daniel_Bragg]

1 hour ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I think the data is definitely skewed to benefit recent 6A and 5A teams. The question is why and how to address it. In my early analysis the ratings from those teams don't fit a bell curve. The curve looks very skewed with very good teams on one side, then a massive drop off. Normalizing the data should help for better comparison.

After looking at the Predictor Tool, I think the "normalized" result is what is causing some disparage.  There is some sort of clear recency bias in the numbers.  And yes, when using Sagarin, these numbers will always be skewed to benefit the larger schools.

[hhpatriot04]

40 minutes ago, Daniel_Bragg said:

After looking at the Predictor Tool, I think the "normalized" result is what is causing some disparage.  There is some sort of clear recency bias in the numbers.  And yes, when using Sagarin, these numbers will always be skewed to benefit the larger schools.

So you can't compare Sagarin predictor or overall ratings directly between years. So, the normalization is based on the assumption that the average team in any given year is equivalent to that of another year.

To calculate the average predictor rating for a given year, we find a fancy "Winsorized mean" that arbitrarily ignores the top and bottom 2.5 percent of teams.

Then it's a simple calculation of SAGARIN PREDICTOR RATING - WINSORIZED MEAN to get the ADJUSTED PREDICTOR RATING.

[US31]

Have fun!

https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Boys Track Records Book_1.pdf

[hhpatriot04]

48 minutes ago, Daniel_Bragg said:

After looking at the Predictor Tool, I think the "normalized" result is what is causing some disparage.  There is some sort of clear recency bias in the numbers.  And yes, when using Sagarin, these numbers will always be skewed to benefit the larger schools.

But less recency bias in Class 2A which along with classes 2A-4A typically are the most competitive, meaning the teams have ratings more normally distributed and ratings closer to the mean than 5A-6A and 1A.

[Coach Nowlin]

Oh to have made that FG in 2005 vs Jimtown.........Or not be a yard Out of Bounds for the win in OT, or to not have our starting S suspended 2 days before........ 

That 2005 Bomber team was the real deal led by QB and 3rd in Mr. Football voting Jake Kiger 

So it goes 

 

[Coach Nowlin]

https://predictor.gridirondigest.net/index.php

 

That one surprised me, not the 14 team beat the 05 team, but the margin 

[Coach Nowlin]

2 hours ago, temptation said:

Track and field records are being broken at an all-time rate but (hater alert) a large part in those record being broken is advancements in shoe technology and track surfaces.

 

 

Likewise.

 

59 minutes ago, US31 said:

Have fun!

https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Boys Track Records Book_1.pdf

What consitute an all time rate?    Local I assume?   Based on the link here, the last record at state was broken in 1984, I am not sure you were even born then, I was 5 years old btw 

 

[hhpatriot04]

7 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

https://predictor.gridirondigest.net/index.php

 

That one surprised me, not the 14 team beat the 05 team, but the margin 

You have to copy the prediction, not the link. But thanks, I'll build in the ability to share predictions via link.