Class A should only have 32 teams

[hhpatriot04]

Let's talk competitive balance. If you plot any random sample on a chart you end up with a bell curve. Who in their infinite wisdom decided 5A should have 32 teams and 1A 64 or so? Logically it doesn't make sense, so what was the real reason? 

The farther away from the median enrollment across all classes the larger the disparity (percentage in smaller schools) and by count in the larger. Does the IHSAA know math? 

[Coach Nowlin]

Whats the enrollment current 5a 32 teams and the 1st 32 teams of 4a?    Discrepancy of top to bottom of that class would be? 

vs top 1a vs bottom 1a of 64

[Coach Nowlin]

https://ihsaa.org/Portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/football schools 19-20.pdf

@hhpatriot04 plan would look like:

6a the same:  Carmel 5286 to Zionsville 2055 ( I left off CE and Valpo)  

5a: 64 teams:  Jeffersonville 2035 to Plymouth 1097  Difference of almost a 1000 kids, currently only a difference of roughly 600 some in current plan 

4a:  64 teams:  Marion 1082 to North Harrison 685

3a:  64 teams;  Lawarenceburg 678 to Shenandoah 451

2a:  64 teams:  N. Posey 450 to N. Davies  296

1a:  32 Teams:  LCC 287 to Indiana School of Deaf 121  

[CoachJackson]

31 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Let's talk competitive balance. If you plot any random sample on a chart you end up with a bell curve. Who in their infinite wisdom decided 5A should have 32 teams and 1A 64 or so? Logically it doesn't make sense, so what was the real reason? 

The farther away from the median enrollment across all classes the larger the disparity (percentage in smaller schools) and by count in the larger. Does the IHSAA know math? 

Always thought the same. Even though the number disparities would be larger for the higher classes they would still have an easier time at finding those 11-22 guys than the little schools would. 

[nlc123]

Bell curve sounds right but it isn't the case in Indiana.  We have a lot more small schools than large schools.  With 64 teams in 1a there is only a 260 student enrollment difference between the smallest and largest schools.  5a with 32 teams there is a 600 student difference.  It would be a 1000 student difference if 5a were 64 and 160 student difference if 1a was 32 teams.  

However, the argument could be made that the smallest 1a is 3 times smaller than the largest 1a, while the largest 5a is only 25% bigger than the smallest 5a.  Changing 1a to 32 would make that closer to the same (largest in each class would be about twice as big as the smallest). 

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, nlc123 said:

Bell curve sounds right but it isn't the case in Indiana.  We have a lot more small schools than large schools.  With 64 teams in 1a there is only a 260 student enrollment difference between the smallest and largest schools.  5a with 32 teams there is a 600 student difference.  It would be a 1000 student difference if 5a were 64 and 160 student difference if 1a was 32 teams.  

However, the argument could be made that the smallest 1a is 3 times smaller than the largest 1a, while the largest 5a is only 25% bigger than the smallest 5a.  Changing 1a to 32 would make that closer to the same (largest in each class would be about twice as big as the smallest). 

Percentages matter more than counts. A 300 enrollment school can challenge a 600 enrollment school much easier than a 600 can challenge a 1,200 (P/PS not withstanding). 

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, Coach Nowlin said:

https://ihsaa.org/Portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/football schools 19-20.pdf

@hhpatriot04 plan would look like:

6a the same:  Carmel 5286 to Zionsville 2055 ( I left off CE and Valpo)  

5a: 64 teams:  Jeffersonville 2035 to Plymouth 1097  Difference of almost a 1000 kids, currently only a difference of roughly 600 some in current plan 

4a:  64 teams:  Marion 1082 to North Harrison 685

3a:  64 teams;  Lawarenceburg 678 to Shenandoah 451

2a:  64 teams:  N. Posey 450 to N. Davies  296

1a:  32 Teams:  LCC 287 to Indiana School of Deaf 121  

Yes. Importantly, it closes the gaps in the middle classes. 

[DanteEstonia]

Why not have classes 1A-5A contain the same number of teams?

[CoachVeatch]

You mean we'd get a bye week in the tournament in that case? Sign me up LOL

[CoachVeatch]

6 minutes ago, CoachVeatch said:

You mean we'd get a bye week in the tournament in that case? Sign me up LOL

welll...I suppose we wouldn't be in 1A anymore if that were the case. But it's nice that someone on here besides Coach Nowlin, Foxbat, and Basement Bias is actually talking about small school football. Makes a 1A-er's heart warm 😂

[slice60]

3 hours ago, DanteEstonia said:

Why not have classes 1A-5A contain the same number of teams?

That's how it was from 1985-2012. The IHSAA split up the largest class into 5A + 6A because the top half in enrollment was DOMINATING 5A when it was a 64-team tournament.

[AG]

The biggest case for not splitting up 1A is the fact that the two most successful 1A programs of the past decade are in the bottom 32 of enrollment. LCC and Pioneer have both won multiple state championships and are the only back to back champions to be moved up to 2A due to the success factor. Both schools were actually smaller in the past decade too. LCC was in the bottom ten in the past decade.

[TIFootball]

Rank all teams 1-317

Drop the lowest 100 (qualifier)

Divide up rest into 4 tourney's based on rankings.

That's competitive balance.

[FridayNightLights]

17 hours ago, Coach Nowlin said:

https://ihsaa.org/Portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/football schools 19-20.pdf

@hhpatriot04 plan would look like:

6a the same:  Carmel 5286 to Zionsville 2055 ( I left off CE and Valpo)  

5a: 64 teams:  Jeffersonville 2035 to Plymouth 1097  Difference of almost a 1000 kids, currently only a difference of roughly 600 some in current plan 

4a:  64 teams:  Marion 1082 to North Harrison 685

3a:  64 teams;  Lawarenceburg 678 to Shenandoah 451

2a:  64 teams:  N. Posey 450 to N. Davies  296

1a:  32 Teams:  LCC 287 to Indiana School of Deaf 121  

Always thought the gap Carmel has with the rest of 6A is pretty ridiculous. They should win state in every sport, every year.  If they play CG in state they will have 2700 more kids. Find myself rooting against the super school of Indiana every year. 

[CoachVeatch]

53 minutes ago, TIFootball said:

Rank all teams 1-317

 

How would we do this? And for those that say Sags....IMO If we use sags programs would run up the scores to increase their computer ranks, which would be counter intuitive to the whole idea of ranking for "competitive balance" which doesn't really exist in any amateur sport. Maybe ranking the top 10 teams isn't so hard but who wants to sit around and try to split hairs between teams 250-300?

.  

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, CoachVeatch said:

How would we do this? And for those that say Sags....IMO If we use sags programs would run up the scores to increase their computer ranks, which would be counter intuitive to the whole idea of ranking for "competitive balance" which doesn't really exist in any amateur sport. Maybe ranking the top 10 teams isn't so hard but who wants to sit around and try to split hairs between teams 250-300?

.  

You can't run up the score so easily because of the new rule. Additionally, I don't claim to know Jeff Sagarins algorithms, but I imagine a 70-0 win has about the same weight as a 49-7 win. After a certain point it is approaching meaningless. Look at my plan to get the coaches involved in seeding sectionals with Sags as a tie breaker. If you can do it in wrestling why not in football? You could even have Sectional 31 coaches seeding sectional 32, or a random mix. We live in a world where coaches can meet on Skype and the IHSAA could easily make a website for coaches to cast blind ballots. If there are no ties after round one and the IHSAA or a third party agrees there has been no vote rigging (four coaches voting in bad faith for their own advantagr, for example), Then that's that. 

[CoachVeatch]

Seeding the sectionals is one thing. That's a little easier than trying to rank all football playing schools 1-317 and then divide it up based on that. I typically don't put much trust in the sags. They're a nice discussion topic but don't do much for predictions in the tournament.

[hhpatriot04]

19 hours ago, CoachVeatch said:

Seeding the sectionals is one thing. That's a little easier than trying to rank all football playing schools 1-317 and then divide it up based on that. I typically don't put much trust in the sags. They're a nice discussion topic but don't do much for predictions in the tournament.

78 percent accurate year in and out. And that was when TW did his analysis 10 years ago. 

[HoosierFB_JG]

If we could do this and get some end zone cameras that would be great

[CoachDurham]

On 11/19/2019 at 9:26 AM, CoachVeatch said:

Seeding the sectionals is one thing. That's a little easier than trying to rank all football playing schools 1-317 and then divide it up based on that. I typically don't put much trust in the sags. They're a nice discussion topic but don't do much for predictions in the tournament.

If 8 coaches can sit in a room and rank multiple wrestling weight classes in 1 night. Then 8 coaches can sit in a room and rank a Sectional in an hour. 

You dont need Sagarin, or anything like that.

[nlc123]

On 11/18/2019 at 4:15 PM, hhpatriot04 said:

Percentages matter more than counts. A 300 enrollment school can challenge a 600 enrollment school much easier than a 600 can challenge a 1,200 (P/PS not withstanding). 

You just contradicted yourself.  Both of those have the same percentage (the big school is twice the size as the small school). 

[gopher2]

As a statistics teacher, let me add a couple of things.  First, the bell curve only applies in a symmetric distribution of data (first graph).  In this case, that would be by enrollment. Enrollment numbers aren't symmetric, they're skewed to the right (second graph).  As NLC commented, this means that as enrollment numbers increase they are much more spread out in 6A (3200 difference) vs 1A (160 difference).  This doesn't change anybody's position, just pointing out that we have to watch how we use the statistics.

Not trying to be a smart alec or anything.  IMO from a financial standpoint, the IHSAA would probably make more money having a 6 week Class 6A and a 5 week Class A schedule, than having a 6 week 1A tournament and 5 week.   Plus 6A athletic budgets are a lot bigger than those in 1A.

[gopher2]

6 week 1A tournament and 5 week 6A tournament.

[Gipper]

Let.  Contraction.  Commence.  Especially at South Newton, the Rebel-flag losing weirdos...

[Ben Mussolini]

Lowell basketball program in early 1950's had a 51 game losing streak.  Should they have been contracted?