Corona and Fall Sports

[JustRules]

3 hours ago, Staxawax said:

I think the NCAA has all the money they need.

Based on what? The budgets for all their championships are pretty tight. I've seen reports the basketball tournament generates 75-80% of their revenue and underwrites the cost of most of the other championships. If they decide to start cutting championships that would open up some money.

I did a quick Google search and found the 2018-19 Financial Statement (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/finance/2018-19NCAAFin_NCAAFinancials.pdf). Here is what I found:

• Revenue was $1.12b of which $867m came from TV and rights fees; I couldn't find how much of the $867m came from men's basketball, but based on future payments I'm assuming it was around $800m (73%)
• Expenses were $1.05b with a net change of assets of $71m; this is only 7% of their budget. That doesn't give them much wiggle room.

High level breakdown of expenses:

• Distribution to D1 members - $611m
• D1 championships and programs (including NIT) - $154m
• D2 members, championships and programs - $54m
• D3 members, championships and programs - $35m
• NCAA-wide programs - $150m
• Management and General - $45m

I assume the last group is for the staff, facilities, administrative expenses. These numbers all sound huge because they have the words billions and millions, but most of what comes in is already going out. They will receive a lot less from this year's tournament and the NCAA does have an insurance policy that will cover some of that shortfall. But this will definitely be a hit for them. There is a reduction in expenses due to not holding the tournaments (some Winter and all Spring), but the biggest impact will be payouts to the schools. So the pain will trickle downhill.

People much smarter than us are working through the numbers to figure out the actual impacts and things they will do to recover. Endowments will be hit, fundraisers done, and possibly ticket prices raised. But it will be an interesting process to get through.

[Bobref]

Let’s assume we do have a Fall sports season, and it is scheduled to start at the usual time. 3 days before the first game, the coach is notified that one of his players has symptoms and has tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. What do you do?

[cw13]

The biggest question would be when we get to PHASE 2........schools can re-open, but gatherings can only be 50 people. How does that work when the bell rings in the hallway between classes at schools?........lunch time at schools?........When the day ends at schools? how does that work for fb teams who have large numbers?  Even at games with limited fans.....large number teams on both sides will be well over 50.........Lots of variables to figure out yet

[Titan32]

2 hours ago, Bobref said:

Let’s assume we do have a Fall sports season, and it is scheduled to start at the usual time. 3 days before the first game, the coach is notified that one of his players has symptoms and has tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. What do you do?

This is a great question that really goes to the larger issue which is Trojan Dad's point.  This isn't the flu...so every time a kid tests positive in the building there will be contact tracing.  Then I suspect ALL of the kids contacted will have to go home and self quarantine for 2 weeks?  Seems like in high school buildings and on football teams there is a LOT of "contact".  Feels like this is going to be very difficult to manage to me.  Or...do some of you just think since it doesn't tend to affect young people as badly that there won't be contact tracing for this age group and fully expect asymptomatic kids to be all over the place anyway?  Or...by August do we not care because enough people have had it that the health care system won't be over run?

Edited April 21, 2020 by Titan32

[Raven67]

2 hours ago, Titan32 said:

This is a great question that really goes to the larger issue which is Trojan Dad's point.  This isn't the flu...so every time a kid tests positive in the building there will be contact tracing.  Then I suspect ALL of the kids contacted will have to go home and self quarantine for 2 weeks?  Seems like in high school buildings and on football teams there is a LOT of "contact".  Feels like this is going to be very difficult to manage to me.  Or...do some of you just think since it doesn't tend to affect young people as badly that there won't be contact tracing for this age group and fully expect asymptomatic kids to be all over the place anyway?  Or...by August do we not care because enough people have had it that the health care system won't be over run?

The new developments with the asymptomatic percentages are STAGGERING. I keep saying it. We really are not social distancing. Stores are open, look at the streets. This thing has run rampant undetected. India is saying 80 percent of all cases are asymptomatic. LA County now estimates that close to 500,000 have had it in their county alone. They originally on had 7900 positive. Ohio prison that only had 50 people with symptoms tested everyone 73% of 2400 were positive. This is a game changer. We have not slowed anything down. My guess is it will run its course faster than thought. Very interesting data.

[foxbat]

2 hours ago, Titan32 said:

This is a great question that really goes to the larger issue which is Trojan Dad's point.  This isn't the flu...so every time a kid tests positive in the building there will be contact tracing.  Then I suspect ALL of the kids contacted will have to go home and self quarantine for 2 weeks?  Seems like in high school buildings and on football teams there is a LOT of "contact".  Feels like this is going to be very difficult to manage to me.  Or...do some of you just think since it doesn't tend to affect young people as badly that there won't be contact tracing for this age group and fully expect asymptomatic kids to be all over the place anyway?  Or...by August do we not care because enough people have had it that the health care system won't be over run?

The potential problem is that asymptomatic kids likely go home and interact with parents/grandparents and even siblings who have issues like heart conditions, diabetes, asthma, etc. that could be impacted.  It's sometimes less the visible referent others and the secondary and, potentially, tertiary levels that become problematic in policy tied to direct-contact demographics.

[Bobref]

40 minutes ago, foxbat said:

The potential problem is that asymptomatic kids likely go home and interact with parents/grandparents and even siblings who have issues like heart conditions, diabetes, asthma, etc. that could be impacted.  It's sometimes less the visible referent others and the secondary and, potentially, tertiary levels that become problematic in policy tied to direct-contact demographics.

We also do not know what the re-infection profile is like. It is far from certain that having contracted the disease will confer immunity, or how much, or for how long.

[Boilernation]

On 4/18/2020 at 11:19 PM, JustRules said:

They want to know why the NCAA doesn't change their bowl system to a playoff. A big reason is because it' snot their bowl season and the CFP isn't theirs either.

Exactly. A lot of people don't realize that every single claimed Division 1 National Championship in Football, whether CFP era, BCS Bowl Era, or via AP and Coaches Poll, is a Mythical Title in the eyes of the NCAA. 

[Titan32]

38 minutes ago, Bobref said:

We also do not know what the re-infection profile is like. It is far from certain that having contracted the disease will confer immunity, or how much, or for how long.

I believe there is an immunity form what I have read...what is in doubt is how long.  The TIME article I read was a couple weeks old but the experts they interviewed thought 1 to 3  years....with younger folks having a more robust immune response therefore a longer period of immunity.

[Raven67]

44 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

I believe there is an immunity form what I have read...what is in doubt is how long.  The TIME article I read was a couple weeks old but the experts they interviewed thought 1 to 3  years....with younger folks having a more robust immune response therefore a longer period of immunity.

“If we’re putting all our hopes in a vaccine as being the answer, we’re in trouble,” Jason Schwartz, an assistant professor at Yale School of Public Health. 

CORONAVIRUS and Influenza are the same when it comes to the fact they both have a single strain of RNA. That will make the covid vaccine similar to flu one every year. They will have to shoot in the dark due to mutation. We need a treatment. With a treatment and antibodys we can combat this. We are already seeing with all these asymptomatic cases we potentially are at the same mortality rate as influenza .001-.002, it has just happened faster. Some Epidemiologists have said that this virus needs to run its course, and that it will by the time we would have a vaccine anyway.

 

[Staxawax]

On 4/19/2020 at 3:12 PM, JustRules said:

Based on what? The budgets for all their championships are pretty tight. I've seen reports the basketball tournament generates 75-80% of their revenue and underwrites the cost of most of the other championships. If they decide to start cutting championships that would open up some money.

I did a quick Google search and found the 2018-19 Financial Statement (https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/finance/2018-19NCAAFin_NCAAFinancials.pdf). Here is what I found:

• Revenue was $1.12b of which $867m came from TV and rights fees; I couldn't find how much of the $867m came from men's basketball, but based on future payments I'm assuming it was around $800m (73%)
• Expenses were $1.05b with a net change of assets of $71m; this is only 7% of their budget. That doesn't give them much wiggle room.

High level breakdown of expenses:

• Distribution to D1 members - $611m
• D1 championships and programs (including NIT) - $154m
• D2 members, championships and programs - $54m
• D3 members, championships and programs - $35m
• NCAA-wide programs - $150m
• Management and General - $45m

I assume the last group is for the staff, facilities, administrative expenses. These numbers all sound huge because they have the words billions and millions, but most of what comes in is already going out. They will receive a lot less from this year's tournament and the NCAA does have an insurance policy that will cover some of that shortfall. But this will definitely be a hit for them. There is a reduction in expenses due to not holding the tournaments (some Winter and all Spring), but the biggest impact will be payouts to the schools. So the pain will trickle downhill.

People much smarter than us are working through the numbers to figure out the actual impacts and things they will do to recover. Endowments will be hit, fundraisers done, and possibly ticket prices raised. But it will be an interesting process to get through.

I don't see insurance costs in your search results.  Perhaps that is a part of Management and General?

They have insurance. 

[Gipper]

Bad news: the president of UConn has suggested all fall sports should be canceled.

[boilerfan87]

I mentioned this in the other thread. Here are a couple of updates from the state. If this holds up, it will be hard to justify starting sports as usual. 

https://in.chalkbeat.org/2020/4/21/21230499/even-after-indiana-schools-reopen-it-could-take-time-to-get-back-to-normal-mccormick-says

https://wsbt.com/news/local/indiana-department-of-education-discusses-plans-for-the-future-of-schooling

Again, I want football and all sports to come back ASAP. But they will take a back seat when it comes to how the state is deciding for schools to proceed at the start of the next school year, which could potentially be after Labor Day.

[Gipper]

5 minutes ago, boilerfan87 said:

I mentioned this in the other thread. Here are a couple of updates from the state. If this holds up, it will be hard to justify starting sports as usual. 

https://in.chalkbeat.org/2020/4/21/21230499/even-after-indiana-schools-reopen-it-could-take-time-to-get-back-to-normal-mccormick-says

https://wsbt.com/news/local/indiana-department-of-education-discusses-plans-for-the-future-of-schooling

Again, I want football and all sports to come back ASAP. But they will take a back seat when it comes to how the state is deciding for schools to proceed at the start of the next school year, which could potentially be after Labor Day.

I totally agree with you, but we need to mitigate all risks!  I scoffed at this initially, but this really is a big deal, stay safe!

[Raven67]

I guess my question is.. what is everyone's  opinion on what we wait for to say ok, not just for football, but for everything. A vaccine is not a silver bullet, even the "experts" say that. Are we stuck like this for eternity? With antibody tests coming out, we are seeing a mortality rate of potentially .02. What do we wait for? Do we use PPE and carry on? 

[Bobref]

34 minutes ago, Raven67 said:

I guess my question is.. what is everyone's  opinion on what we wait for to say ok, not just for football, but for everything. A vaccine is not a silver bullet, even the "experts" say that. Are we stuck like this for eternity? With antibody tests coming out, we are seeing a mortality rate of potentially .02. What do we wait for? Do we use PPE and carry on? 

This might help answer some of those questions. My wife, a nurse practitioner who is in charge of infection control at a Chicago Hospital, sent me this. The most up-to-date word on where we might be going.

Published in Dentistry and 

11 other channels 

Expert Opinion / Commentary · April 21, 2020

COVID-19 – A Glimpse Into the Future

 Jonathan Temte MD, PhD

How can we see into the future? The simple answer is that we can’t. We are left only with guesses as to what may be. Some of these are educated and informed; others are wild speculation. It is the former that I will focus on today; informed predictions of what may happen with the global pandemic of COVID-19 in the coming weeks and months. At present, we have no vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 and no evidence-based therapeutics for COVID-19. What we do have are public health measures, such as “social distancing,” for prevention and medical interventions consisting of supportive care. Leveraging our public health tools, however, buys time for the development and testing of vaccines and therapeutics.

A very thoughtful and thorough projection is available, based on sophisticated modelling by Kissler and colleagues.1 Their efforts take into account the possible contributions of seasonality, duration of immunity, and cross-protection imparted by prior infection with the two other betacoronaviruses in common circulation (HKU1 and OC43). Then, they provide a variety of scenarios that simultaneously assess the effects of the length (4 weeks to indefinite) and strength (0–60% reductions in Ro) of social distancing. First some basics:

Seasonal coronaviruses are seasonal; they circulated primarily in the late autumn, winter and early spring months in temperate regions;

Immunity to HKU1 and OC43 wanes fairly rapidly, over the course of about a year;

Some cross-protection exists between these two viruses, and perhaps, extends to SARS-CoV-2;

Both of these seasonal coronaviruses are less infectious than SARS-CoV-2.

The modeling efforts lead to some interesting and some uncomfortable conclusions:

SARS-CoV-2 can proliferate at any time of the year (as we are seeing now across the globe);

If immunity is not permanent, SARS-CoV-2 will eventually enter into regular circulation as our fifth seasonal coronavirus;

If immunity is permanent (or very long-lasting), SARS-CoV-2 could disappear after a few years;

High levels of seasonality will lead to a smaller initial peak, but larger wintertime outbreaks;

Low levels of cross-protection from OC43 and HKU1 might allow resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 following a period of low activity lasting a few years.

When social distancing is added without seasonality, the following scenarios emerge:

Short durations of social distancing do little more than displace the cases into the near future;

Longer durations of higher-intensity social distancing effectively reduce case burden in the near term, but result in significant outbreaks during autumn and winter;

Permanent social distancing of moderate to high intensity works well to keep SARS-CoV-2 at bay (but would be unpalatable to almost all of us).

Finally, and what I think are the most likely projections, are of those with social distancing added into a seasonal world:

Short durations of social distancing slightly delay the peaks of COVID-19, but result in high overall infection rates;

Longer durations of social distancing push the peaks into the winter months and increase the overall infection rate;

Intermittent social distancing, based on good surveillance, may be needed to keep case load in check until vaccines are available or a sufficient percentage of the population has been infected, become immune, and herd effects take over.

I suspect our best choices here require a Faustian deal, buying time now at the expense of a future catastrophe, in the hope that effective therapeutics and vaccines become available and that critical data emerge regarding the extent of population immunity, duration of immunity, and its rate of decline. Perhaps the last and best words for COVID-19 predictions are those of Ebenezer Scrooge, “Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be?”2  Only u will tell.t

https://www.practiceupdate.com/c/b5bf643b-c8c2-4989-a214-ba428701ad73?elsca1=soc_share-this-email&elsca2=social&elsca3=email

 

[JustRules]

On 4/22/2020 at 2:15 AM, Staxawax said:

I don't see insurance costs in your search results.  Perhaps that is a part of Management and General?

They have insurance. 

Yes, I assume the insurance premiums are in M&G. One article I read said the policy covers up to $250m which won't cover all of what was lost from the NCAA men's tournament.

[Wedgebuster]

Did anyone see Ohio's plan of shuffling sports seasons around to play the sports with more built in "social distance" first? 

Fall:  Boys and Girls Tennis, Boys and Girls Golf,  Softball, Baseball, Boys and Girls Track, 

Winter: Normal

Spring: Football (start season March 1,  regular season begins March 22, Playoffs start in lat May) Soccer 

 

An out of the box plan, but I would take it to be able to let all the kids play!

[wabashalwaysfights]

12 minutes ago, Wedgebuster said:

Did anyone see Ohio's plan of shuffling sports seasons around to play the sports with more built in "social distance" first? 

Fall:  Boys and Girls Tennis, Boys and Girls Golf,  Softball, Baseball, Boys and Girls Track, 

Winter: Normal

Spring: Football (start season March 1,  regular season begins March 22, Playoffs start in lat May) Soccer 

 

An out of the box plan, but I would take it to be able to let all the kids play!

Out of the box, sure, but selfishly from a football standpoint I still don't like it long term.  As a track coach, I really don't even like this either, for the short term or the long term.  I can see where it makes sense for some sports in the short term, but still don't think its worth it.  I'm assuming other Fall sports, like volleyball and cross country, would also be moved to the spring?

[Irishman]

I am not a fan of the shift either. It literally leaves little time for an off season for the following year. 

[oldtimeqb]

My one burning question:

If we start fall sports season with no fans present, or at most only family, how will the soccer kids know the difference? 😀

[wabashalwaysfights]

51 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

My one burning question:

If we start fall sports season with no fans present, or at most only family, how will the soccer kids know the difference? 😀

Edited April 23, 2020 by wabashalwaysfights

[Raven67]

3 hours ago, Irishman said:

I am not a fan of the shift either. It literally leaves little time for an off season for the following year. 

Soo your saying that you would rather have a class of seniors NEVER get the chance to play rather than have one year of shortened off-season. Also we are not getting much of an off season this year...

[ROLLTRIBE]

Shift rather not having a season much better option.  I've always thought it made more sense anyway 

[wabashalwaysfights]

31 minutes ago, Raven67 said:

Soo your saying that you would rather have a class of seniors NEVER get the chance to play rather than have one year of shortened off-season. Also we are not getting much of an off season this year...

At the expense of the bodies of those underclassmen going through essentially two seasons in 9 months?  Comparing it to this off season being shortened isn't applicable when you consider the total recovery time from last year to this year is still roughly the same, kids just can't be involved in "traditional" off-season conditioning.  Look, at the end of the day it's like Sophie's choice and I don't want to miss out on any time, but I would rather say let's postpone the start of the season to after labor day and cut a week or two off of the regular season to see if that gives us enough clearance for the powers that be rather than put the long term health of those underclassmen on the line.  

If they were to flip, I would want a schedule that is more along the lines of a 2 week "camp," a 5 week regular season, and then start the tournament.  Then, in the fall of 2021, something very similar, but maybe a bit more extended, say perhaps a 7 week regular season.  No, it's not full seasons.  No, coaches aren't going to like it, but I mean, if we're going to think "outside the box" it needs to be a little more than "let's just flip the fall and spring sport seasons."  Play a 9 week regular season, plus a tournament from March to May and then another 9 week regular season plus a tournament from late August to November?  That's at least 20 games in 9 months, 30 in 10 if you advance very far in the tournament.  That would have been a bit much for me in high school, and all I did was play football by the time I was an upperclassman.  It's all a nightmare regardless...