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DTs Dandy Dozen - Open Ended Questions in an Uncertain World


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1. Will Portage win a DAC title and a sectional before Coach Radtke decides to hang up his whistle?

2. Is the new consolidated Elkhart High School in position to overtake Penn in the NIC?  

3. Can Dave Sharpe push Noblesville into the top half of the HCC?  How long will it take?

4. Is Center Grove positioned to rip off back to back Class 6A State Championships?  The Trojans are loaded and BD and WC appear to be slipping.

5. Will John Rodenberg find his comfort zone at Roncalli and  get the Rebel program back on track and into statewide contention?

6. Is their a future football renaissance in Hammond with the closures of Gavit and Clark and the consolidations into Hammond High and Morton respectively?

7. Will COVID force the contraction of several more high school football programs across the state of Indiana ahead of the 2020 season?

8. Where does New Pal go in the post CS era?  Will the staff stick around for the long term?

9. Southern Indiana football has made great strides in the past 5 years.  The new SIAC has bulked up with the additions of Jasper and Vincennes.  Will these trends continue?

10. Are BD and WC losing talent to PPs or other local publics?  Based on the recruiting services and the current outlook at future prospects, both schools appear to be sliding.  Whats behind the slide?

11. Mooresville has Mike Gillin's offense and 2 D1 linemen to run behind heading in to the next season.  Are they ready to make a run for a state title?

12. Will South Bend follow in Hammonds footsteps and shut down underutilized schools and consolidate?

 

 

 

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1.     Portage can't get any worse............it's all upside from here. Competition will be stiff. Merrillville is hit or miss, but Valpo could have a stronghold on the Duneland. The Viking's will rule with an iron fist for the foreseeable future, but Radtke finds his way to at least one Duneland title. Answer...............yes. 

2.     Josh Shattuck has never coached a football team that didn't see improvement from the previous year. Elkhart will be dangerous. Maybe Penn and Elkhart can make one another better. 

3.     At best, he sneaks into the number 4 spot. If it happens, it won't be overnight. I'm thinking 3 or 4 years. And if it does happen, it won't be sustained. The HCC is solid, good luck to him. 

8.     They seemed to do just fine before Charlie got there. As long as Kyle Ralph is there, NP will compete for championships.

 

 

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4. Center Grove is loaded, I'd say even more than usual so if they can avoid major, key injuries I'd say yes, back to back 6A titles is very possible. 

8. New Pal will be just fine.  88-4 under Coach Ralph with 2 trips to LOS and 1 state title before Charlie.  Plus the last 2 years was a lot more than just him.  22 seniors on last year's team so next year will probably look alot like the 2016 team, lots of unanswered questions and they'll be very young but they'll be fine.  And yes, Coach Ralph will be there for the foreseeable future. 

10.  Not sure I'd say BD and WC are sliding.  BD is only 2 years removed from a historically great team and they have a new coach so the jury is still out there.  WC's last 3 seasons include a playoff loss to a great, eventual state title team BD, won a state title and loss to eventual state finalist CG.  I expect both to be just fine, especially WC.

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I don’t think Ben Davis nor Warren Central are sliding.  One lackluster season is allowed.   I don’t think Penn is sliding either.  Elkhart may push them, but Penn and Yeoman will continue to be a tough out.

Edited by Gipper
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53 minutes ago, Gipper said:

I don’t think Ben Davis nor Warren Central are sliding.  One lackluster season is allowed.   I don’t think Penn is sliding either.  Elkhart may push them, but Penn and Yeoman will continue to be a tough out.

If you take a look at the recruiting rankings over the past 5 years, you will see that both schools are turning out fewer and fewer higher level college players.  I believe this is a fair and objective way to gauge talent level.   Also, if you look at the MIC, it has more balance today than it probably ever has.  The Big 4 is now The Big 5 as NC has become an annual contender.  LN appears to be rising as well.  

Coaching in my view is also an issue.  Both staffs do a nice job of managing the sheer size and scope of their individual programs, but also both are lacking when it comes to individual player development.  The CA, CG, NC and LN staffs do a much better job in this area, in my view.

The overwhelming numbers and pure athletic talent available to these schools will likely remain for a long time to come.  Question is, how do you maximize that talent.  

 

 

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19 hours ago, DT said:

4. Is Center Grove positioned to rip off back to back Class 6A State Championships?  The Trojans are loaded and BD and WC appear to be slipping.

10. Are BD and WC losing talent to PPs or other local publics?  Based on the recruiting services and the current outlook at future prospects, both schools appear to be sliding.  Whats behind the slide?

 

WHAT?

 

In the last 3 years:

Center Grove 23-16

Ben Davis 25-12

Warren Central 29-8

 

Do you just say the first thing that comes to your mind?  I fully believe, that without Carson Steele, Ben Davis wins the semi-state and beats Carmel in the title game (better matchup), so how can you say they’re slipping?  They lost 52 seniors from 2017 and had a new coach.  Historically great teams and great coaches will do that.  
 

Warren, historically great in 2018, loses a loaded lineup and still gets into the regional.  They were one year removed from losing over 40 seniors.  
 

You didn’t ask why CG was slipping when they lost a loaded senior class from 2016 and had a lousy 2017 season, so why stir the pot with Warren and BD?  They aren’t going anywhere though I know you’re desperate for them to fall back so you can make your point about the MIC and HCC.  
 

It’s the MIC, it’s unforgiving that you’re in rebuilding mode when everyone should be in reloading mode.  Happened to Center Grove in their 6-6 2017 season and to Carmel in their 8-5 2017 season.  I think BD and Warren are allowed the same kind of grace.  BD was driving and simply fell short in a 1 TD loss to CG in the semi-state this past year.

 

Finally, I believe the Sagarin tells all:

2017 Sagarin

Ben Davis 1

Warren Central 2

Center Grove 4

Carmel 13

 

2018 Sagarin

Warren Central 1

Center Grove 2

Carmel 5

Ben Davis 9


2019 Sagarin

Carmel 1

Center Grove 4

Ben Davis 5

Warren Central 6

 

Didn’t hear you when the 2017 Greyhounds were 13.  Funny enough, the average for these 3 years:

WC 3, CG 3.3, BD 5, Carmel 6.3

 

Carmel I guess should look toward playing in another conference, they seem to be slipping.

 

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11 minutes ago, HoosierFB_JG said:

 

WHAT?

 

In the last 3 years:

Center Grove 23-16

Ben Davis 25-12

Warren Central 29-8

 

Do you just say the first thing that comes to your mind?  I fully believe, that without Carson Steele, Ben Davis wins the semi-state and beats Carmel in the title game (better matchup), so how can you say they’re slipping?  They lost 52 seniors from 2017 and had a new coach.  Historically great teams and great coaches will do that.  
 

Warren, historically great in 2018, loses a loaded lineup and still gets into the regional.  They were one year removed from losing over 40 seniors.  
 

You didn’t ask why CG was slipping when they lost a loaded senior class from 2016 and had a lousy 2017 season, so why stir the pot with Warren and BD?  They aren’t going anywhere though I know you’re desperate for them to fall back so you can make your point about the MIC and HCC.  
 

It’s the MIC, it’s unforgiving that you’re in rebuilding mode when everyone should be in reloading mode.  Happened to Center Grove in their 6-6 2017 season and to Carmel in their 8-5 2017 season.  I think BD and Warren are allowed the same kind of grace.  BD was driving and simply fell short in a 1 TD loss to CG in the semi-state this past year.

 

Finally, I believe the Sagarin tells all:

2017 Sagarin

Ben Davis 1

Warren Central 2

Center Grove 4

Carmel 13

 

2018 Sagarin

Warren Central 1

Center Grove 2

Carmel 5

Ben Davis 9


2019 Sagarin

Carmel 1

Center Grove 4

Ben Davis 5

Warren Central 6

 

Didn’t hear you when the 2017 Greyhounds were 13.  Funny enough, the average for these 3 years:

WC 3, CG 3.3, BD 5, Carmel 6.3

 

Carmel I guess should look toward playing in another conference, they seem to be slipping.

 

I thought I made it crystal clear that my assessment is not based on head to head MIC competition, but rather roster quality over the past 5 to 10 years.

Its clear as mud my friend. WC and BD have less "high level" talent, per the recruiting rankings, than they have in the past.  Don't you find it a bit odd and somewhat disconcerting that WC has ZERO players in the Indiana Top 30 Class of 21?  Even worse, WC had no representation in the Top 50 players Class of '20.  Thats a development issue and falls on the staff.  The Warriors have more than enough talent to compete for conference and state titles, but they have not been "elite" for a while now.  Center Grove and Carmel are churning out kids year after year the way that BD and WC used.  Its in the numbers.  Just take a look.  

 

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

 

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

Edited by DT
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6 minutes ago, DT said:

I thought I made it crystal clear that my assessment is not based on head to head MIC competition, but rather roster quality over the past 5 to 10 years.

Its clear as mud my friend. WC and BD have less "high level" talent, per the recruiting rankings, than they have in the past.  Don't you find it a bit odd and somewhat disconcerting that WC has ZERO players in the Indiana Top 30 Class of 21?  Even worse, WC had no representation in the Top 50 players Class of '20.  Thats a development issue and falls on the staff.  The Warriors have more than enough talent to compete for conference and state titles, but they have not been "elite" for a while now.  Center Grove and Carmel are churning out kids year after year the way that BD and WC used.  Its in the numbers.  Just take a look.  

 

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

 

https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

So then Carmel and Center Grove aren’t getting the most out of what they have in their talent pool and BD and WC are.


Thats saying something folks!

 

Edited by HoosierFB_JG
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19 hours ago, DT said:

 

1. Will Portage win a DAC title and a sectional before Coach Radtke decides to hang up his whistle?

2. Is the new consolidated Elkhart High School in position to overtake Penn in the NIC?  

3. Can Dave Sharpe push Noblesville into the top half of the HCC?  How long will it take?

4. Is Center Grove positioned to rip off back to back Class 6A State Championships?  The Trojans are loaded and BD and WC appear to be slipping.

5. Will John Rodenberg find his comfort zone at Roncalli and  get the Rebel program back on track and into statewide contention?

6. Is their a future football renaissance in Hammond with the closures of Gavit and Clark and the consolidations into Hammond High and Morton respectively?

7. Will COVID force the contraction of several more high school football programs across the state of Indiana ahead of the 2020 season?

8. Where does New Pal go in the post CS era?  Will the staff stick around for the long term?

9. Southern Indiana football has made great strides in the past 5 years.  The new SIAC has bulked up with the additions of Jasper and Vincennes.  Will these trends continue?

10. Are BD and WC losing talent to PPs or other local publics?  Based on the recruiting services and the current outlook at future prospects, both schools appear to be sliding.  Whats behind the slide?

11. Mooresville has Mike Gillin's offense and 2 D1 linemen to run behind heading in to the next season.  Are they ready to make a run for a state title?

12. Will South Bend follow in Hammonds footsteps and shut down underutilized schools and consolidate?

 

 

 

1.  Not sure how old Radke is (late 60s?) but I see climbing the DAC/sectional ladder being a tall order but not impossible.  I'd say they will improve from a competitiveness standpoint immediately but it will take a couple of years before they actually threaten for either title, if they do at all.  If he is there for more than 4 years, I say he gets one or the other.

2.  I stated previously that I think that SES plays more of a factor in high school sports than any other metric and football is no longer exempt.  I'll speak more on this later, but I think that the free/reduced rate in Elkhart is over twice to that of Penn.  They will give Penn something to worry about and will require the Kingsmen to look over their shoulder and they may eventually knock them off a couple of times, but I do not see them "replacing" Penn as the power of the NIC annually anytime soon.

3.  Noblesville seems like a place with unrealistic expectations so I don't think they will give Sharpe enough time.  Avon and Brownsburg are here to stay as are HSE and Fishers.  Zionsville is not going anywhere and FC is setting up to be the next mega school in Central Indiana within the next few years.  You and I align completely on our thoughts that the HCC is a sleeping giant that is slowly making its move.  They got the best of the MIC in the regular season last year which was unheard of just 3-4 years ago.  With population trends around central Indiana, this conference is only going to get better.  Noblesville seems like a dead end destination to me.

4.  Health and lack of attrition will be Center Grove's only obstacles in the way of two consecutive titles.  Neither is guaranteed, but with the current make up of the roster, its hard to see them not being a prohibitive favorite in 2020 and 2021.  Their basketball team (yes, they are a football school) had an exodus to county neighbor Greenwood Christian and though I hate to spread rumors, I've seen multiple accounts that their star QB is wavering a bit.

5.  I don't know the man personally but based on quotes in the media, I think that Rodenberg underestimated the strides that Indiana high school football has made in comparison to our neighbors to the east and thought that the LC rebuild would be much quicker.  Not in the MIC.  Had he gone from Ohio to Roncalli and THEN to LC, it would have benefited him greatly.  I am interested to see how he does at Roncalli.

6.  Too far outside my area of expertise/geography.  But refer to my SES theory above.

7.  You are the expert.

8.  I think it is silly to not expect New Pal to take a step "back" due to the sheer amount of seniors they had on the roster this season, but will it matter?  They'll run roughshod through the regular season, save for perhaps the Brebeuf contest,  again and will get a chance to find themselves on a weekly basis so they are a well-oiled machine by the time the tournament rolls around.  That is where it could get interesting though as there are a couple of other contenders that will challenge the Dragons.  Don't know enough about the coaching staff to make a statement on that side.

9.  Outside of my area of expertise.

10. I mentioned population shifts/trends here in central Indiana in particular and while I think that WC and BD are taking a "step back" it is far from a trend.  The sheer numbers that both programs boast should keep them relevant and in the mix for state championships for the foreseeable future.  Other programs are closing the gap and the 3-4 horse race (Carmel, Center Grove, Ben Davis, and Warren) will eventually turn into an 6-8 team race and perhaps even a 9-12 team race later down the line.

11.  Big Mike Gillin fan.  It would be great to see the Pioneers make a deep run as Mike has paid his dues.

12.  Outside of my area of expertise.

 

Great talking points.  Thanks for keeping things interesting @DT.  Just my two cents.

28 minutes ago, HoosierFB_JG said:

So then Carmel and Center Grove aren’t getting the most out of what they have in their talent pool and BD and WC are.


Thats saying something folks!

 

Didn't CG and Carmel play for the state title last fall?  

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On 4/5/2020 at 1:45 PM, DT said:

1. Will Portage win a DAC title and a sectional before Coach Radtke decides to hang up his whistle?

2. Is the new consolidated Elkhart High School in position to overtake Penn in the NIC?  

3. Can Dave Sharpe push Noblesville into the top half of the HCC?  How long will it take?

4. Is Center Grove positioned to rip off back to back Class 6A State Championships?  The Trojans are loaded and BD and WC appear to be slipping.

5. Will John Rodenberg find his comfort zone at Roncalli and  get the Rebel program back on track and into statewide contention?

6. Is their a future football renaissance in Hammond with the closures of Gavit and Clark and the consolidations into Hammond High and Morton respectively?

7. Will COVID force the contraction of several more high school football programs across the state of Indiana ahead of the 2020 season?

8. Where does New Pal go in the post CS era?  Will the staff stick around for the long term?

9. Southern Indiana football has made great strides in the past 5 years.  The new SIAC has bulked up with the additions of Jasper and Vincennes.  Will these trends continue?

10. Are BD and WC losing talent to PPs or other local publics?  Based on the recruiting services and the current outlook at future prospects, both schools appear to be sliding.  Whats behind the slide?

11. Mooresville has Mike Gillin's offense and 2 D1 linemen to run behind heading in to the next season.  Are they ready to make a run for a state title?

12. Will South Bend follow in Hammonds footsteps and shut down underutilized schools and consolidate?

1. Key word in your question is AND. I'm not sure they win both, but could see the sectional championship as the "easier" option of the two from the standpoint that they would only have to win 2 games to accomplish that feat.

2. School enrollment wise? The opportunity is there. However, having a large enrollment does not equate to football dominance (ex. Lake Central). Also - while Central has had a few decent years the past decade and gotten better under new Elkhart Lions coach Josh Shattuck, Memorial did not have a winning season in the last 9 years. It may take some time before Elkhart truly challenges Penn throughout the NIC athletic-sphere.

3. Yes - season 3

4. Postioned? Yes. Easily obtainable? The addition of Carmel to 6A South makes that path slightly more difficult.

7. Interesting topic. Depends on how long it takes for things to get back to "normal". If it is well into July, how is it possible to get some of these teams that already struggle with numbers on a yearly basis get enough interested to play the full season?

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2 hours ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

1. Key word in your question is AND. I'm not sure they win both, but could see the sectional championship as the "easier" option of the two from the standpoint that they would only have to win 2 games to accomplish that feat.

2. School enrollment wise? The opportunity is there. However, having a large enrollment does not equate to football dominance (ex. Lake Central). Also - while Central has had a few decent years the past decade and gotten better under new Elkhart Lions coach Josh Shattuck, Memorial did not have a winning season in the last 9 years. It may take some time before Elkhart truly challenges Penn throughout the NIC athletic-sphere.

3. Yes - season 3

4. Postioned? Yes. Easily obtainable? The addition of Carmel to 6A South makes that path slightly more difficult.

7. Interesting topic. Depends on how long it takes for things to get back to "normal". If it is well into July, how is it possible to get some of these teams that already struggle with numbers on a yearly basis get enough interested to play the full season?

Very possible we could see some heavy voluntary contraction.  I firmly believe a downsizing of Indiana High School Football that eliminates the very bottom level consistently poor performers will result in improved overall play and competitive balance.

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On 4/5/2020 at 1:45 PM, DT said:

 

1. Will Portage win a DAC title and a sectional before Coach Radtke decides to hang up his whistle?

2. Is the new consolidated Elkhart High School in position to overtake Penn in the NIC?  

3. Can Dave Sharpe push Noblesville into the top half of the HCC?  How long will it take?

4. Is Center Grove positioned to rip off back to back Class 6A State Championships?  The Trojans are loaded and BD and WC appear to be slipping.

5. Will John Rodenberg find his comfort zone at Roncalli and  get the Rebel program back on track and into statewide contention?

6. Is their a future football renaissance in Hammond with the closures of Gavit and Clark and the consolidations into Hammond High and Morton respectively?

7. Will COVID force the contraction of several more high school football programs across the state of Indiana ahead of the 2020 season?

8. Where does New Pal go in the post CS era?  Will the staff stick around for the long term?

9. Southern Indiana football has made great strides in the past 5 years.  The new SIAC has bulked up with the additions of Jasper and Vincennes.  Will these trends continue?

10. Are BD and WC losing talent to PPs or other local publics?  Based on the recruiting services and the current outlook at future prospects, both schools appear to be sliding.  Whats behind the slide?

11. Mooresville has Mike Gillin's offense and 2 D1 linemen to run behind heading in to the next season.  Are they ready to make a run for a state title?

12. Will South Bend follow in Hammonds footsteps and shut down underutilized schools and consolidate?

 

 

 

10. 

Didnt Warren Central win state 2018? Didn't they win sectionals last year? 

Didnt Ben Davis win state in 2017? Didn't Ben Davis make it to semi state last yr? 

Who cares if they aren't popping out top 30 talent. They are still winning.

You've brought this up like 10 times, same with elkhart and penn, same with new pal, same with Hammond schools. 

 

Running dry on content?

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25 minutes ago, Ultimate Warrior said:

10. 

Didnt Warren Central win state 2018? Didn't they win sectionals last year? 

Didnt Ben Davis win state in 2017? Didn't Ben Davis make it to semi state last yr? 

Who cares if they aren't popping out top 30 talent. They are still winning.

You've brought this up like 10 times, same with elkhart and penn, same with new pal, same with Hammond schools. 

 

Running dry on content?

I think his point is that they are sliding in terms of talent but depth due to enrollment is still keeping them afloat.  Could be wrong though.

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36 minutes ago, Ultimate Warrior said:

10. 

Didnt Warren Central win state 2018? Didn't they win sectionals last year? 

Didnt Ben Davis win state in 2017? Didn't Ben Davis make it to semi state last yr? 

Who cares if they aren't popping out top 30 talent. They are still winning.

You've brought this up like 10 times, same with elkhart and penn, same with new pal, same with Hammond schools. 

 

Running dry on content?

LOL   Yes.  Content is lean these days.  

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