Jump to content
Head Coach Openings 2024 ×
  • Current Donation Goals

    • Raised $2,716 of $3,600 target

Success Factor / Enrollment Question


Recommended Posts

Out of my boredom during quarantine, I am looking at what class 6A and class 5A might look like in 2021 after reclassification.

In doing some research, there were two possiblities that could occur and I am curious as to what is supposed to happen.

The examples could come from Warsaw and Mishawaka.

Assuming (and this is a big assumption) BOTH teams win sectional titles this fall, they will both have accumulated at least 2 Success Factor points. However, with other teams potentially moving up into or staying in 6A and 5A, what happens in these scenarios?

Warsaw (6A) and Mishawaka (5A) both accumulate 2 success factor points. However, after enrollment numbers come out and other schools success factor point possibilities (namely New Palestine, Valparaiso, Cathedral and FW Bishop Dwenger), lets say Warsaw drops to 5A and Mishawaka drops to 4A per their enrollment. Yet - they accumulated 2 success factor points that should techincally keep a school in the class they accumulated those points in, correct?

Edited by NLCTigerFan07
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those success factor points only keep you in a class if you were bumped up.  Like New Pal for example.  They already have enough points to keep them in 5A no matter what their enrollment is next year.  They could go to 6A with a regional win, but cannot move down to 4A since they already have 4 points.

Warsaw did not get moved to 6A due to success factor, so they could be moved down based on enrollment even if they score enough success factor points to “stay up” in 6A.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HoopsCoach said:

Those success factor points only keep you in a class if you were bumped up.  Like New Pal for example.  They already have enough points to keep them in 5A no matter what their enrollment is next year.  They could go to 6A with a regional win, but cannot move down to 4A since they already have 4 points.

Warsaw did not get moved to 6A due to success factor, so they could be moved down based on enrollment even if they score enough success factor points to “stay up” in 6A.

HoopsCoach

To your knowledge, can a school "petition" the IHSAA to request a class move, up or down?  Or even to remain in a class?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, DT said:

HoopsCoach

To your knowledge, can a school "petition" the IHSAA to request a class move, up or down?  Or even to remain in a class?

 

An athletic program can elect to play up, but they cannot choose to stay in their current class if they are moved up due to success factor or by enrollment.  They cannot elect to play down a class either.

Zionsville is moving down to 5A this fall with the consolidated Elkhart moving up to 6A.  Zionsville could elect to play up and stay in 6A, and the next smallest 6A school would move down to 5A instead.  Let’s say the opposite occurred and Valpo was assigned to move up to 6A when a 6A school closed or split. Valpo could not ask to stay in 5A (Note: in the past the IHSAA has always just left an open spot in a class when a school closed rather than move a school up.  However, they also never made a mid-cycle move due to a consolidation until this situation with Elkhart this year).

Electing to play up can be done in a single sport and does not have to be for all programs at a school.  South Bend Washington did that with boys and girls basketball a few years ago.  Both were going to be 3A by enrollment but one of the two programs (can’t remember which) elected to play up in 4A.  I am not sure what the official process is to petition the IHSAA to play up, but it has to be done prior to the alignment of sectionals during an alignment year (20-21).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HoopsCoach said:

An athletic program can elect to play up, but they cannot choose to stay in their current class if they are moved up due to success factor or by enrollment.  They cannot elect to play down a class either.

Zionsville is moving down to 5A this fall with the consolidated Elkhart moving up to 6A.  Zionsville could elect to play up and stay in 6A, and the next smallest 6A school would move down to 5A instead.  Let’s say the opposite occurred and Valpo was assigned to move up to 6A when a 6A school closed or split. Valpo could not ask to stay in 5A (Note: in the past the IHSAA has always just left an open spot in a class when a school closed rather than move a school up.  However, they also never made a mid-cycle move due to a consolidation until this situation with Elkhart this year).

Electing to play up can be done in a single sport and does not have to be for all programs at a school.  South Bend Washington did that with boys and girls basketball a few years ago.  Both were going to be 3A by enrollment but one of the two programs (can’t remember which) elected to play up in 4A.  I am not sure what the official process is to petition the IHSAA to play up, but it has to be done prior to the alignment of sectionals during an alignment year (20-21).

Thanks

It seems like there are several schools on the edge of enrollment classifications that are always in the discussion about moving up and down.  I wonder if that can become bothersome for ADs and coaches.  What are your thoughts?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cathedral should be prohibitive faves in 4A/5A for the next two years. Incoming Junior class is loaded. Line is sick (Wood, Farah, Fowler, Koers), senior skill players nasty (McCahill, Langdon, Cam Fabulous), junior skill players ready to break out (Page, Mentzer, Hughes, Dittoe, Llewelyn) plus a D1 frosh TE (Wooten); and some red ass defenders (Huddy, Guhl, Zane, Scruggs, Ooooooozinger). Thought we had Red Dragons on the ropes for another Irish 3Peat, but they stepped up and stomped on our grapes. 

5A on notice. We’ve been doing speed drills in Greenfield Central’s gym during the COVID. Someone tell the Greenfield Reporter. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, DT said:

Thanks

It seems like there are several schools on the edge of enrollment classifications that are always in the discussion about moving up and down.  I wonder if that can become bothersome for ADs and coaches.  What are your thoughts?

 

I think it depends on the strength of the program, as well as the potential opponents they could face in each class.  Some schools may have a much easier tournament path in one class compared to another.  Coaches may want to try to schedule some of their sectional opponents for regular season games, so that might cause some work for AD’s if they change classes.  That seems to be more common with basketball and baseball since they have more flexibility with their schedules.

I’ll use Lafayette Jeff as an example.  They’ve been close to the 5A/6A split for several years.  If they had been in 5A during the last 3-4 years, they would have been a threat to make some deep tournament runs.  They’re a solid 6A team, but haven’t been able to get out of their sectional.  Dropping back to 5A would potentially create an easier path being in a sectional with teams they have beaten for the last several years (McCutcheon, Harrison, Kokomo).

Mishawaka has been on the 4A/5A cutoff for years, but they’ve been successful in both classes.  They’ve made deeper runs the years they’ve been in 4A, but still won several sectionals in 5A.

Mississinewa may move down to 3A in the next cycle.  Their 3A sectional would probably be weaker, but everything after that is a bigger challenge than 4A in my opinion.  I actually think the 3A tournament is tougher than 4A, especially with Dwenger, New Pal, and Cathedral all playing in 5A.  Evansville Memorial would be an example of that - won 4A this past season after losing in the 3A finals in 2018.

Western Boone has been close to the 2A/3A split and has greatly benefitted from the move down to 2A.  In 3A they struggled to make it out of their sectional with the Indy parochial schools or West Lafayette.  In 3 years playing 2A they’ve won a regional and 2 state championships.  Using the enrollment numbers from the 2019-20 school year, they would go back to 3A, and there is a good chance they will get bumped by success factor anyway.

Linton-Stockton has stayed close to the 1A/2A cutoff for a while.  They had some great runs in 1A, but haven’t made it out of their sectional in 2A with Southridge and Mater Dei.  They would probably welcome a return to 1A, but their enrollment likely keeps them in 2A for the next cycle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, HoopsCoach said:

I think it depends on the strength of the program, as well as the potential opponents they could face in each class.  Some schools may have a much easier tournament path in one class compared to another.  Coaches may want to try to schedule some of their sectional opponents for regular season games, so that might cause some work for AD’s if they change classes.  That seems to be more common with basketball and baseball since they have more flexibility with their schedules.

I’ll use Lafayette Jeff as an example.  They’ve been close to the 5A/6A split for several years.  If they had been in 5A during the last 3-4 years, they would have been a threat to make some deep tournament runs.  They’re a solid 6A team, but haven’t been able to get out of their sectional.  Dropping back to 5A would potentially create an easier path being in a sectional with teams they have beaten for the last several years (McCutcheon, Harrison, Kokomo).

Mishawaka has been on the 4A/5A cutoff for years, but they’ve been successful in both classes.  They’ve made deeper runs the years they’ve been in 4A, but still won several sectionals in 5A.

Mississinewa may move down to 3A in the next cycle.  Their 3A sectional would probably be weaker, but everything after that is a bigger challenge than 4A in my opinion.  I actually think the 3A tournament is tougher than 4A, especially with Dwenger, New Pal, and Cathedral all playing in 5A.  Evansville Memorial would be an example of that - won 4A this past season after losing in the 3A finals in 2018.

Western Boone has been close to the 2A/3A split and has greatly benefitted from the move down to 2A.  In 3A they struggled to make it out of their sectional with the Indy parochial schools or West Lafayette.  In 3 years playing 2A they’ve won a regional and 2 state championships.  Using the enrollment numbers from the 2019-20 school year, they would go back to 3A, and there is a good chance they will get bumped by success factor anyway.

Linton-Stockton has stayed close to the 1A/2A cutoff for a while.  They had some great runs in 1A, but haven’t made it out of their sectional in 2A with Southridge and Mater Dei.  They would probably welcome a return to 1A, but their enrollment likely keeps them in 2A for the next cycle.

Some might infer that Boone is a bully, a true 3A playing down and dominating smaller 2A competition.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, HoopsCoach said:

Western Boone has been close to the 2A/3A split and has greatly benefitted from the move down to 2A.  In 3A they struggled to make it out of their sectional with the Indy parochial schools or West Lafayette.  In 3 years playing 2A they’ve won a regional and 2 state championships.  Using the enrollment numbers from the 2019-20 school year, they would go back to 3A, and there is a good chance they will get bumped by success factor anyway.

8 other schools in 2A have a higher enrollment than Western Boone. If they expand 3A to 74 teams and cut 2A to 54, you may have point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, gonzoron said:

8 other schools in 2A have a higher enrollment than Western Boone. If they expand 3A to 74 teams and cut 2A to 54, you may have point.

I assume that you are looking at the enrollments that were used to set the classes for the current cycle, which are from the 2018-19 school year.  I’m using the enrollments from 2019-20.  Don’t forget that the consolidation of a couple schools that are larger than Webo will reduce the number of schools above them in the order of enrollments (2 Elkhart schools down to 1), and who knows what Indy Manual (a 3A school) will look like a year from now when classifications are being set.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, HoopsCoach said:

I assume that you are looking at the enrollments that were used to set the classes for the current cycle, which are from the 2018-19 school year.  I’m using the enrollments from 2019-20.  Don’t forget that the consolidation of a couple schools that are larger than Webo will reduce the number of schools above them in the order of enrollments (2 Elkhart schools down to 1), and who knows what Indy Manual (a 3A school) will look like a year from now when classifications are being set.

Highly likely they'll still be a legit 2A. Situations you cite would only move them up 2 spots, not 8.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

Highly likely they'll still be a legit 2A. Situations you cite would only move them up 2 spots, not 8.

8 schools dropped from 3A to 2A for the cycle that began this year.  Southridge is also moved up to 3A due to success factor.  Their enrollment would put them back in 2A (18 spots below Webo).  Webo’s 8th grade class has the exact same number of students as their senior class, so their number shouldn’t change much from the 536 they have this year.

Here’s what would possibly be the bottom 10 for 3A and top 10 for 2A based on this year’s enrollment (includes only 1 Elkhart and Indy Manual above them).  There can and will be change in these numbers next year, which will be the enrollments used to set the next classifications.

    3A    Enrollment
55    Indianapolis Ritter    548
56    South Vermillion    547
57    North Montgomery    544
58    Monrovia    538
59    Speedway    537
60    Salem    536
61    Western Boone    536
62    Brownstown Central    534
63    River Forest    531
64    Woodlan    525

    2A    Enrollment
1    Oak Hill    520
2    Sullivan    518
3    Eastern (Greentown)    516
4    Rensselaer Central    515
5    F.W. Bishop Luers    511
6    Fairfield    508
7    Greencastle    506
8    Blackford    504
9    Centerville    502
10    Rochester    501

Link to comment
Share on other sites

64    Woodlan    525

 

With Woodlan getting a new coach do you think players migrate back to New Haven or are they all homegrown?  I'm way out of the loop to know anymore how it goes in EACS?  There are lots of EACS guys on here.  

Also, would the world we live in change school enrollments enough to shake things up on these fringes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/10/2020 at 6:08 PM, HoopsCoach said:

Those success factor points only keep you in a class if you were bumped up.

Warsaw did not get moved to 6A due to success factor, so they could be moved down based on enrollment even if they score enough success factor points to “stay up” in 6A.

Thank you for answering my question! I have been told by sources that Warsaw's enrollment will more likely than not keep them up in 6A and last year's mid-cycle enrollment stats were due to a small senior class this year, but next year's incoming freshman class will be large.  But good to know for scenarios such as this, I was not sure how it could effect schools moving up/down with enrollment and success factor points in the mix. I appreciate it

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
On 4/11/2020 at 3:45 PM, DT said:

Some might infer that Boone is a bully, a true 3A playing down and dominating smaller 2A competition.  

Some might not be very bright too.  When they are 3A enrollment, they play in 3A (like they did from 2007-2016).  When their enrollment is 2A level, they play in 2A.  There are no tricks involved.

Their success has been exclusively in 2A to date.  They had some ok teams (not great) while they were in 3A but they ran into better teams early.

2010 - lost to Chatard (eventual state champ) in sectional championship

2011 - lost to West Lafayette (regional champ) in sectional semifinal

2012 - lost to Hamilton Heights (state finalist) in sectional semifinal

2013 - lost to Brebeuf (state finalist) in sectional semifinal

2014 - lost to Tri-West (eventual state champ) in sectional semifinal

2015 - lost to West Lafayette (state finalist) in first round

I don't think they need to apologize for playing in 2A, as their enrollment dictates, since 2017.  

Edited by XStar
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎4‎/‎11‎/‎2020 at 3:36 PM, HoopsCoach said:

I think it depends on the strength of the program, as well as the potential opponents they could face in each class.  Some schools may have a much easier tournament path in one class compared to another.  Coaches may want to try to schedule some of their sectional opponents for regular season games, so that might cause some work for AD’s if they change classes.  That seems to be more common with basketball and baseball since they have more flexibility with their schedules.

I’ll use Lafayette Jeff as an example.  They’ve been close to the 5A/6A split for several years.  If they had been in 5A during the last 3-4 years, they would have been a threat to make some deep tournament runs.  They’re a solid 6A team, but haven’t been able to get out of their sectional.  Dropping back to 5A would potentially create an easier path being in a sectional with teams they have beaten for the last several years (McCutcheon, Harrison, Kokomo).

Mishawaka has been on the 4A/5A cutoff for years, but they’ve been successful in both classes.  They’ve made deeper runs the years they’ve been in 4A, but still won several sectionals in 5A.

Mississinewa may move down to 3A in the next cycle.  Their 3A sectional would probably be weaker, but everything after that is a bigger challenge than 4A in my opinion.  I actually think the 3A tournament is tougher than 4A, especially with Dwenger, New Pal, and Cathedral all playing in 5A.  Evansville Memorial would be an example of that - won 4A this past season after losing in the 3A finals in 2018.

Western Boone has been close to the 2A/3A split and has greatly benefitted from the move down to 2A.  In 3A they struggled to make it out of their sectional with the Indy parochial schools or West Lafayette.  In 3 years playing 2A they’ve won a regional and 2 state championships.  Using the enrollment numbers from the 2019-20 school year, they would go back to 3A, and there is a good chance they will get bumped by success factor anyway.

Linton-Stockton has stayed close to the 1A/2A cutoff for a while.  They had some great runs in 1A, but haven’t made it out of their sectional in 2A with Southridge and Mater Dei.  They would probably welcome a return to 1A, but their enrollment likely keeps them in 2A for the next cycle.

They won a Sectional (lost to Scecina in Regionals in 2017) and 2 State Championships.

On ‎4‎/‎11‎/‎2020 at 3:45 PM, DT said:

Some might infer that Boone is a bully, a true 3A playing down and dominating smaller 2A competition.  

As XSTAR pointed out... When enrollment has been 3A they have played 3A... When 2A, we play 2A.  And if we are honest, Webo dominated the Sagamore the last 2 years in which there are 4A, 3A, and just a couple 2A schools.  One of those 3A schools went to Semi State in 2019 and in 2018 there were 2 Sectional Champs that they beat (3A Tri-West & 5A Lafayette Harrison) during the regular season.  If Webo has to move up due to enrollment or success factor, then they move up.  

Edited by 1st_and_10
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, 1st_and_10 said:

They won a Sectional (lost to Scecina in Regionals in 2017) and 2 State Championships.

As XSTAR pointed out... When enrollment has been 3A they have played 3A... When 2A, we play 2A.  And if we are honest, Webo dominated the Sagamore the last 2 years in which there are 4A, 3A, and just a couple 2A schools.  One of those 3A schools went to Semi State in 2019 and in 2018 there were 2 Sectional Champs that they beat (3A Tri-West & 5A Lafayette Harrison) during the regular season.  If Webo has to move up due to enrollment or success factor, then they move up.  

Let's just hope the next 6 years they stay in 2A 😁

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...