COVID Impact on football season

[Guest]

Ohio set to re-open 5/1.  They are part of the midwest task force I mentioned.  The rest of the states in this task force need to follow suit.

Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Minnesota.

I would presume there will be a new "normal".  Let's ROLL!

[Raven67]

2 hours ago, Staxawax said:

Even if there is a vaccine by September, it is unlikely the FDA would allow it's use after only a few months of clinical trials.

IMO, if you require masks and take each person's temperature when they enter, you would be good to go.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans. 

 

Its in trials now

[JustRules]

1 hour ago, Raven67 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/oxford-vaccine-veteran-lays-out-coronavirus-immunization-plans. 

 

Its in trials now

The article actually mentions several hurdles and say efficacy results by September. Approvals will take place after that. This would be awesome if they can comfortably complete a drug trial by then, but I would be very surprised. There is a reason these trials usually take a lot of time. They don't always go smoothly with the first formulary being valid. That's why they do trials. The FDA provides a lot of validation before approval. And even with a vaccine it's not likely we'll eliminate the virus. Like other viruses it gives us an opportunity to better limit the spread.

[Raven67]

1 hour ago, JustRules said:

The article actually mentions several hurdles and say efficacy results by September. Approvals will take place after that. This would be awesome if they can comfortably complete a drug trial by then, but I would be very surprised. There is a reason these trials usually take a lot of time. They don't always go smoothly with the first formulary being valid. That's why they do trials. The FDA provides a lot of validation before approval. And even with a vaccine it's not likely we'll eliminate the virus. Like other viruses it gives us an opportunity to better limit the spread.

Yea its easy to pick out all the negatives. I was doing that a couple weeks ago. Everyone is saying 18 months. We had a vaccine for swine flu in like 6 months from the time it hit US soil. I agree vaccines will not solve this. There are some interesting numbers coming out from antibody tests and from people that are asymptotic. This virus is running its course full speed ahead. And eventually it will do just that run its course. I would bring up some of the new treatments and protocols that are on the verge of being groundbreaking, but someone would tear them apart too. Just the world we live in.

[Bobref]

23 minutes ago, Raven67 said:

We had a vaccine for swine flu in like 6 months from the time it hit US soil.

It is not appropriate to compare a Coronavirus vaccine to combat a virus that no one knew existed a year ago, with an influenza vaccine, which is a totally different type of virus, and which had been undergoing research on variant strains for literally decades. This article explains very nicely how, under the best of circumstances, mass production of a vaccine is 12-18 mos. away, and there are serious doubts as to how effective it might be, since there’s not adequate time to do the customary trials.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

. 

[Robert]

14 minutes ago, Bobref said:

It is not appropriate to compare a Coronavirus vaccine to combat a virus that no one knew existed a year ago, with an influenza vaccine, which is a totally different type of virus, and which had been undergoing research on variant strains for literally decades. This article explains very nicely how, under the best of circumstances, mass production of a vaccine is 12-18 mos. away, and there are serious doubts as to how effective it might be, since there’s not adequate time to do the customary trials.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

. 

Very good points.  Great article.  

[Raven67]

3 hours ago, Bobref said:

It is not appropriate to compare a Coronavirus vaccine to combat a virus that no one knew existed a year ago, with an influenza vaccine, which is a totally different type of virus, and which had been undergoing research on variant strains for literally decades. This article explains very nicely how, under the best of circumstances, mass production of a vaccine is 12-18 mos. away, and there are serious doubts as to how effective it might be, since there’s not adequate time to do the customary trials.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

. 

Are you telling me the flu vaccine works? I got it this year and tested positive for the flu twice. Since you appear to be well versed in proving stuff wrong, what is it you think we should do for the next 2 years before the vaccine comes out that won't work? 

[Bobref]

14 minutes ago, Raven67 said:

Are you telling me the flu vaccine works? I got it this year and tested positive for the flu twice. Since you appear to be well versed in proving stuff wrong, what is it you think we should do for the next 2 years before the vaccine comes out that won't work? 

The “flu” is actually several different strains of viruses. The annual flu shot is merely an amalgam of 3-4 different vaccines against the strains of the virus that epidemiologists predict will be most prevalent that season. But a flu shot doesn’t protect against any other strain of influenza. So, it’s relatively common for a person to get a “flu” shot, and still get the flu. It’s just a different strain than the ones covered by the vaccine.

I think SARS-CoV-2 is a game changer. I think we are going to be pushed to the ethical brink by having to make a choice between the deaths we are willing to absorb in the name of keeping the economy going the way it was before vs. maximum infection control.If all we were interested in was keeping the most people healthy, there would be no large gatherings until there was a vaccine that worked, or until we had an effective, readily deliverable treatment that keeps people off ventilators and out of ICUs. As far as which way it’s going to play out, I predict the pressure to “restart” the economy — especially in an election year — will become too great. Restrictions will be relaxed. As a result, we’ll experience a secondary wave of infections and deaths, probably this Fall. There will be some restrictions re-imposed, but probably not to the extent before. So, until there is a vaccine, we’ll keep seeing infections and deaths. The numbers will depend on what restrictions we are willing to put up with to protect the vulnerable segment of the population.

[Raven67]

3 minutes ago, Bobref said:

 or until we had an effective, readily deliverable treatment that keeps people off ventilators and out of ICUs. 

THIS is what I have been saying for awhile. I honestly think we will have something sooner than later... as far as large gathers, meijer is one everyday.

[Bobref]

9 minutes ago, Raven67 said:

THIS is what I have been saying for awhile. I honestly think we will have something sooner than later... as far as large gathers, meijer is one everyday.

I get to go to “senior hours.”

[gonzoron]

25 minutes ago, Bobref said:

I get to go to “senior hours.”

That's just as many people, they just all move slower. Voice of experience.

[psaboy]

As I think we are seeing, most of the general public is ready to get back out there. All jobs are essential to that person and/or family. The protests are starting to gain traction and the states will need to start opening up soon. The U.S. government can't keep writing checks and printing money, it will be devalued further, need to get economy going again.

[Irishman]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

As I think we are seeing, most of the general public is ready to get back out there. All jobs are essential to that person and/or family. The protests are starting to gain traction and the states will need to start opening up soon. The U.S. government can't keep writing checks and printing money, it will be devalued further, need to get economy going again.

I hope we can see things moving soon too; but how soon is too soon????? I am not as optimistic as some on here are though.  As Bob said, we have an ethical dilemma we have to face up to here. What is the death toll that becomes an acceptable thing, to where we say ok; in the long run, it was a good move to lift the restrictions? Along those lines; what number makes us say, well, we certainly made the wrong move there? 

 

[JustRules]

5 minutes ago, Irishman said:

I hope we can see things moving soon too; but how soon is too soon????? I am not as optimistic as some on here are though.  As Bob said, we have an ethical dilemma we have to face up to here. What is the death toll that becomes an acceptable thing, to where we say ok; in the long run, it was a good move to lift the restrictions? Along those lines; what number makes us say, well, we certainly made the wrong move there? 

 

We already do that with a number of other things. This is not to compare the impact of COVID-19 to flu and other causes of death, because I hate when people do that to downplay the significance of this virus. But we could wipe out a lot of lunch cancer by completely eliminating tobacco. We could eliminate DWI and severe injuries and deaths causes by drunk drivers by completely eliminating alcohol. Both of course assume compliance which wouldn't happen. But we still allow tobacco and alcohol and accept that some people will die because of that. Nobody wants people to die because we re-open the economy, but it will inevitably happen. Antibody testing will help. Increased diagnostic testing will help. Isolation and contact tracing will help. Therapies will help. Vaccines will help. Some of those will be available sooner than later.

I'm an optimist, but I"m also a realist. I expect students to be back in school in the Fall. I expect sports to be played (with some potential crowd limitations). People will change behaviors. People will be smarter. Those will help flatten the next curve. If the curve stays below the capacity of what our medical facilities can handle, we may have to accept that. We also have to be prepared to shut some things down again. That's the realist in me.

The one absolute I do know is I'm not an expert on any of this. I'm not even knowledgeable. We need to rely on those people who are. Like it or not we need to rely on the experts identified by our leaders who we elected. Don't rely on the expert who has a web site or posts a YouTube video. Don't be a lemming either, but be smart on who you listen to.

[Irishman]

10 minutes ago, JustRules said:

We already do that with a number of other things. This is not to compare the impact of COVID-19 to flu and other causes of death, because I hate when people do that to downplay the significance of this virus. But we could wipe out a lot of lunch cancer by completely eliminating tobacco. We could eliminate DWI and severe injuries and deaths causes by drunk drivers by completely eliminating alcohol. Both of course assume compliance which wouldn't happen. But we still allow tobacco and alcohol and accept that some people will die because of that. Nobody wants people to die because we re-open the economy, but it will inevitably happen. Antibody testing will help. Increased diagnostic testing will help. Isolation and contact tracing will help. Therapies will help. Vaccines will help. Some of those will be available sooner than later.

I'm an optimist, but I"m also a realist. I expect students to be back in school in the Fall. I expect sports to be played (with some potential crowd limitations). People will change behaviors. People will be smarter. Those will help flatten the next curve. If the curve stays below the capacity of what our medical facilities can handle, we may have to accept that. We also have to be prepared to shut some things down again. That's the realist in me.

The one absolute I do know is I'm not an expert on any of this. I'm not even knowledgeable. We need to rely on those people who are. Like it or not we need to rely on the experts identified by our leaders who we elected. Don't rely on the expert who has a web site or posts a YouTube video. Don't be a lemming either, but be smart on who you listen to.

I get all that, and sure there are inherent risks involved in a number of things in life. But this one is different. We are talking about putting people deliberately at risk here. We shut things down to avoid a number of things; to keep from overtaxing our hospitals, and to prevent vulnerable people from getting this and dying. It seems those are no longer concerns in the push to re open things. I agree that nobody wants people to die as a result; but it's no longer a focal point among the crowds that are protesting. 

I don't want to sound like a naysayer here, and I really do hope everything gets started on time this Fall; The realist in me can see it likely won't though. 

[Bobref]

4 hours ago, Irishman said:

I get all that, and sure there are inherent risks involved in a number of things in life. But this one is different. We are talking about putting people deliberately at risk here. We shut things down to avoid a number of things; to keep from overtaxing our hospitals, and to prevent vulnerable people from getting this and dying. It seems those are no longer concerns in the push to re open things. I agree that nobody wants people to die as a result; but it's no longer a focal point among the crowds that are protesting. 

I don't want to sound like a naysayer here, and I really do hope everything gets started on time this Fall; The realist in me can see it likely won't though. 

Whether we will or won’t lift some restrictions and what the effect of that will be are interesting question. But the most interesting question, to me, is not what will happen, but what should happen. 

[EricFeller]

It will be interesting to see how the IHSAA handles all of this. I'm sure most of it will be determined by the DOE and Governor.  

The biggest question is: Will schools even be allowed to be 'open' during the summer for sports.

2nd thing, Even if they are allowed to open, it takes until Phase 3 before "GYMS" do NOT have to adhere to STRICT physical distancing.  I would think high school weight rooms will have to adhere to gym rules.  It's going to be very hard to police.   I'm sure some schools won't being adhering to the use of the word "STRICT" if weight rooms are allowed open but I just don't know how the IHSAA or other state organizations are going to handle this.

3rd, On top of all this, how many coaches will stop coaching even if we're allowed to restart?

Edited April 20, 2020 by EricFeller

[JustRules]

11 hours ago, Irishman said:

I get all that, and sure there are inherent risks involved in a number of things in life. But this one is different. We are talking about putting people deliberately at risk here. We shut things down to avoid a number of things; to keep from overtaxing our hospitals, and to prevent vulnerable people from getting this and dying. It seems those are no longer concerns in the push to re open things. I agree that nobody wants people to die as a result; but it's no longer a focal point among the crowds that are protesting. 

I don't want to sound like a naysayer here, and I really do hope everything gets started on time this Fall; The realist in me can see it likely won't though. 

I'm by far not an expert, but my thinking is those are still concerns, but we now have other things in place that can still help accomplish those things. They include additional capacity (beds, ventilators), fewer people susceptible (have immunity due to already contracting the virus), more knowledge of the virus (how it spreads, how it impacts different people), potential therapies that appear to help some people, and a more dedicated approach to person efforts (hygiene, masks, distancing). We are also coming to late Spring and early Summer when most viruses don't survive. With that knowledge and change in context the experts may still feel confident we don't overtax our hospitals by opening things up again. I still feel a huge factor in the immediate future (3-6 months) is the antibody test. Once we know 20% of the people or 60% of the people (or something in between) have already been infected will have a HUGE impact on the models going forward. The higher the number the more people will be comfortable returning to normal activities.