Fairfield02 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 From the John Harrell website: Friday, Sep. 13 Concord at Wawasee ©, 7 pm Goshen at NorthWood ©, 7 pm Northridge at Plymouth ©, 7 pm Warsaw at Memorial ©, 7 pm My guesses are: Concord 42 Wawasee 14....I think this might be the easiest pick of the night for the NLC. Goshen 14 Northwood 28...Goshen might not have the fire power to keep of with Northwood. Northridge 29 Plymouth 28 Double OT...based off of Swordfish's comment, i like the Raiders...however Plymouth might be the team to beat this year in the NLC. Warsaw 35 Memorial 21 ...Close at the half, but "Bart Ball" gets the best of Memorial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick John Picanos Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Slick John here reporting on a Friday the 13th with a Full Moon, no less!!! Also- a reminder from your local handicapper----don't bet with your heart! Concord (-21) @ Wawasee: Could this be a trap game for Concord? Long bus ride coming off a solid win last week could lead to some "flatness" from the Minutemen. Goshen @ Northwood (-21): Depending on how well the Redhawks defense can play, they could keep this close for awhile (similar to Central game), or at least somewhat low scoring. It might only take 8 points to beat them though, with the way their offense is playing. Northridge @ Plymouth (-6): There was no hangover from the Blueberry Festival last week by the Rockies. However, those blueberries have had an extra week to ferment after a big win in a rivalry game. We will see if the Rockies can keep the momentum going. I have to beleive Northridge will be just as, if not more physical. Warsaw (-14.5) @ Memorial: The longest distance to travel between two schools in the league (unofficial). Extremely interesting game when keeping in mind what happened last week. Memorial had a solid outing and they can ride confidence as well as any team, historically. Warsaw will identify whether they were "crowned" too early by some of the patrons on this site. If Bart Ball stalls early, I can see Memorial keeping in this one longer than expected. Bonus Odds! Odds to win at least share of NLC Varsity Football Championship Plymouth (2:1)- Great win last week. Considering who they have played, they are in the driver's seat thus far. Concord (3:1)- current league leader (by 1/2 game). Toughest games ahead. Northridge (3:1)- Three solid wins. Biggest game of season so far tonight. Warsaw (7:2)- No longer control their own destiny. NorthWood (5:1)- Lost against a good team. Nappanee isn't dead yet....but a lot of citezens are probably wishing the Wakarusa Dime Store sold more than candy. Memorial (10:1)- Things looked better last week Wawasee/Goshen (300:1)- COMBO PICK!!!! Both still mathematically alive! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRRaider2001 Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 My quick picks for the games tonight. Concord over Wawasee by 35+ Northwood over Goshen by a similar margin Northridge over Plymouth by 1 in the TV46 game of the week. Warsaw over Memorial by double digits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadwarrior75 Posted September 14, 2019 Share Posted September 14, 2019 Rockies roll yet again..... might be time to give them a little respect .... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRRaider2001 Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 ᵣₑₛₚₑ𝒸ₜ Good game by the Pilg....Rockies Friday night. We looked to have the momentum going into halftime down 4, but fumbling the ball on the first play of the second half, and again, and rinse and repeat, isn't a recipe for success. A couple of ill timed penalties including a "late" hit on Baron all but sealed the game. Best part is it should be a couple years before we get the pleasure of hearing the most obnoxious PA voice in three states, unless fortune finds both teams on a deep tournament run as we're no longer in the same sectional/regional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairfield02 Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Looks like Plymouth is the team to beat this year in the NLC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadwarrior75 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 I'll say this right now for those who haven't seen him: The Barron kid @ Plymouth is the real deal. 46 GOTW showed he makes some boy throws. Has some dudes around him too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NLCTigerFan07 Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 Hard for me to believe Warsaw and NorthWood are still "ranked" higher than Concord and Plymouth per Jeff Sagarin ratings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairfield02 Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Though they may not be truly reflecting where teams are right now...in about week 7 or 8...Sagarin Ratings are VERY accurate. (They don't take in account injuries though 🙂 ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarshallCounty Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Give Sagarin a few more weeks to be accurate. It doesn't truly get dialed in until sectionals. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NLCTigerFan07 Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Fairfield02 said: Though they may not be truly reflecting where teams are right now...in about week 7 or 8...Sagarin Ratings are VERY accurate. (They don't take in account injuries though 🙂 ) 1 hour ago, MarshallCounty said: Give Sagarin a few more weeks to be accurate. It doesn't truly get dialed in until sectionals. Yeah well aware that those ratings are more accurate later/longer into the season. Still just intriguing. It's almost as if his ratings early are inflated by "good" losses (i.e. Warsaw to Plymouth, NorthWood to Cathedral and Concord) more so than the wins themselves! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 22 hours ago, MarshallCounty said: Give Sagarin a few more weeks to be accurate. It doesn't truly get dialed in until sectionals. A little late in my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarshallCounty Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Steve said: A little late in my opinion That is the way statistics work, they get more dialed in with more data points. The more games you have to draw from the more accurate the numbers are. Truthfully, sagarin is generally right on after the state championships. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairfield02 Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 This week's NLC match-ups per the John Harrell website: Friday, Sep. 20 Concord at Goshen ©, 7 pm Northridge at Warsaw ©, 7 pm Plymouth at Memorial ©, 7 pm Wawasee at NorthWood ©, 7 pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 On 9/17/2019 at 2:14 AM, Roadwarrior75 said: I'll say this right now for those who haven't seen him: The Barron kid @ Plymouth is the real deal. 46 GOTW showed he makes some boy throws. Has some dudes around him too. You’re right, Barron is good, but it’s those dudes around him that are making a major difference in the games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Predictions for this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NLCTigerFan07 Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 Quick predictions for tonight: Concord @ Goshen : Minutemen by 35+ ... Concord can score as many as they want Wawasee @ NorthWood : Panthers by 35+ ... see above Plymouth @ Memorial : Rockies by 17... Memorial is a tough squad, but Plymouth is hot Northridge @ Warsaw : Tigers by 2... Northridge's 3 wins came against opponents with a combined record of 1-11. However, Warsaw is pretty banged up. I expect this to be a great game tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairfield02 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Concord 49 Goshen 7 (Concord is playing some good football this year...and Goshen just got beat pretty badly by Northwood, a team Concord was able to beat). Wawasee 0 Northwood 45...a lopsided match-up. Plymouth 21 Memorial 17....I actually think this one could be close. However, based on the previous weeks, Plymouth should not be picked against at this point...even though I am going to say there COULD be an upset.... Northridge 21 Warsaw 28...I feel like the Raiders might have a hard time stopping the option tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, Fairfield02 said: Concord 49 Goshen 7 (Concord is playing some good football this year...and Goshen just got beat pretty badly by Northwood, a team Concord was able to beat). Wawasee 0 Northwood 45...a lopsided match-up. Plymouth 21 Memorial 17....I actually think this one could be close. However, based on the previous weeks, Plymouth should not be picked against at this point...even though I am going to say there COULD be an upset.... Northridge 21 Warsaw 28...I feel like the Raiders might have a hard time stopping the option tonight. I think the Rundell/Winkle factor of Plymouth will increase the margin of victory for the Memorial game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick John Picanos Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Concord (-40) @ Goshen : Alabama vs. [insert Sun Belt opponent here] type spread here. Two teams that don't like each other, but the Minutemen have been able to shift their focus to bigger and better goals. 1999 state runners-up reunion provides a potential spark. Lucky for both Concord and Goshen- Otis Shannon will not be in attendance. Wawasee @ NorthWood (-43)- Ugly. Nate Andrews might have to sacrifice a live chicken to get his boys up for this one, but NorthWood could sleep walk through this and still have time to polish two sets of helmets. Plymouth (-14) @ Memorial : Spread is based on previous results, I would take the Chargers to cover. Their athleticism is better on the perimeter than what Plymouth has seen. Combine that with a long bus trip and some over-confidence and Plymouth could find themselves in a battle in the 2nd half. Northridge @ Warsaw (-7.5) : Tigers have to be favored in this one, but Northridge could bring some physicality between the tackles that could give Warsaw some problems. Bonus Odds! Odds to win at least share of NLC Varsity Football Championship Plymouth (2-0) (9:5)- The pride of Marshall County heads north for a sneaky tough matchup. Concord (3-0) (5:2)- current league leader (by 1/2 game). Toughest games ahead (not including this week) Warsaw (1-1)(5:1)- Could it be there were some weaknesses exposed last week and some over-hype? Jury is still out on how good of a win Michigan City was. Northridge (1-1)(5:1)- Has to be somewhat of a disappointing result last week. Great chance to rebound vs. Warsaw. NorthWood (1-1)(5:1)- Something tells me this team will play a role in deciding the champion. Memorial (1-2)(15:1)- Had their chance last week, and almost came through. Wawasee/Goshen (0-2) (400:1)- COMBO PICK!!!! Both still mathematically alive! Rumor Mill Not to be one to gossip too much, (actually, I am- what else are these sites for) but I have heard rumblings of the Mangy Lion being in the incorrect school right now. Rumors have it that Elkhart Central used an ineligible player in that game (and the following 3). By IHSAA rule, that would be forfieture of said contests. Any other insight on this??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadwarrior75 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Predictions: Concord and NW handily. Honestly don't even want to post a possible score. Plymouth over Memorial, but it could be close. Memorial has speed, as does Plymouth. Plymouth struggles at times against the run, BUT, the run game in not Memorials strong suit. Will be a battle of skill positions. 31-21. Warsaw over Northridge. Close game, low scoring, but the Tigers prevail late. 24-17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRRaider2001 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Concord over Goshen by 35 Northwood over Wawasee by 28 Warsaw over Northridge by 10 Memorial over Plymouth by 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roadwarrior75 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 1 hour ago, NRRaider2001 said: Concord over Goshen by 35 Northwood over Wawasee by 28 Warsaw over Northridge by 10 Memorial over Plymouth by 1 You and John Harrell think a lot alike ...................... hm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRRaider2001 Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 53 minutes ago, Roadwarrior75 said: You and John Harrell think a lot alike ...................... hm Haven't checked his site for predictions all year, but sounds like im in pretty good company, guy is an Indiana legend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 After watching the Ply/Mem game, I will say, Memorial has some pretty good talent. Overall it was just a sloppy game on both sides of the ball. Multiple mistakes on the Plymouth end could have easily led to the game to have the opposite outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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