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Bobref

Comments On A Return To Competition

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20 minutes ago, TheStatGuy said:

Always thinks hes the smartest man on the digest too. 

No, I don't.  That is your assumption, not mine friend.

There are numerous individuals on this forum more intelligent than I am.

 

 

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2 hours ago, US31 said:

Should be rephrased to what happens when you FIND out 5-20% of your team is ALREADY infected and asymptomatic?  Keep in mind some of the things we do KNOW about all this.  

  • Most people are asymptomatic (especially young healthy people - high school athletes).
  • It would go without saying, temperature checks will NOT identify these individuals (which will be almost all of the players who are positive).  However, once someone tests positive and the contact tracing starts....expect to find that anywhere from 5-20% (based on reported data) of a "random" population will test positive for either COVID or Antibodies.

I teach Human Anat/Phys and Vertebrate Zoology.  I promise you my kids did not get what they should have from the course.  They did ok with the watered down version they were forced into.

 

re: Grandpa & Grandma being forced to make the decision about having a burger with their grandkids.  Total red herring question.   Are these kids NOT going to school?  Football should not be in the calculus for that decision, if you are worried about that...the kids are already riding buses and sitting in classrooms with hundreds/thousands of other kids each day.  That should already force that decision. 

Here's the reality....unless we go back to eLearning, kids are going to be in class and on buses much like they always were (schools may tell you otherwise, but I don't see it).  Football or other sports is NOT significantly raising their risks above what they are encountering during the school day.

Good post.  This is why we will have school and why we will have sports.  If a kid gets sick they will be asked to go home and quarantine.  The rest of the time there will be (some significant percentage) of kids walking around asymptomatic and no one will know or care.  Just as there are at the graduations and grad parties we have been at, baseball tournaments, summer basketball, Lacrosse tournaments, Walmart etc. this summer.  At the big Toyota plant in Gibson county they wear masks and have a walk through temperature scanner.   Sick people don't come to work.  No pressure to close that place ...there are 7,000 employees in there at least.  And yes to Bobrefs point...more people are going to die because of this head in the sand methodology.   I'm a 50 year old fat guy...I'm concerned for my safety.  My youngest two will be freshmen...they will walk the halls and play sports.

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4 hours ago, DannEllenwood said:

Not really. It’s their choice. 

About eating though. It’s odd. For example on my southwest flight, we were informed to wear masks at all times except while eating and drinking. So there’s always that option. The “virus” seems to know how to take a break when people are eating and drinking. Beats me. 

It's about managing risk. Think of it on a scale of 0 to 100. To achieve a risk of 0 you would avoid the flight entirely. To achieve a risk of 100 you would attend the flight in a packed plane with nobody wearing a masks, no deep cleaning between flights and flight attendants shaking your hand as you get off an one. Empty middle seats, spacing on lines to board, pre-packaged food you grab yourself, everyone wearing masks would have a risk of 20. Taking your mask off for the purpose of eating maybe increases your risk to 25 or 30. I'm making up these numbers for demonstration purposes, but you get the idea. Yes, taking off your mask to eat increases your risk, but only slightly compared to not doing anything. And the only way to completely eliminate the risk is to not get on the plane in the first place.

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Posted (edited)

if college starts moving in this direction.....

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29385354/ivy-league-pondering-conference-only-spring-football-season

I am hearing more discussions about college football in the spring.....

This projection does not help.....

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/coronavirus-in-college-football-hospitalizations-deaths-projected-by-data-analysts-if-fbs-plays-in/

A noted University of Illinois computer science professor has some troubling data to consider regarding widespread infection and even death.

Dr. Sheldon Jacobson told CBS Sports he expects a 30%-50% infection rate of the approximately 13,000 players competing in FBS this season. Based on his research, he also projects 3-7 deaths among those players due to COVID-19.

"A few of them could end up in the hospital, and you'll have a small number who could die," Jacobson told CBS Sports. "I don't want to sugar coat it for you. I just want to give you the facts. … If everybody comes together under normal circumstances, we'll probably see that kind of outcome."

Also minor league baseball just officially cancelled their season

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-2020-minor-league-season-is-canceled-so-what-happens-next/

 

 

Edited by TrojanDad

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4 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

Michigan.......

ADE402D6-8E1A-4060-BB1C-46774A4E0EDF.jpeg

Some football (no matter when played) is better than NO football...though Michigan is a unique case.

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Think ihsaa should start first 4 weeks of season making all fans wear masks , only 50% capacity, and maybe even not allowing people over age 75 into games.  I don't really know what right way to do it would be but I just want a football season.   

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8 minutes ago, Mayo77 said:

Think ihsaa should start first 4 weeks of season making all fans wear masks , only 50% capacity, and maybe even not allowing people over age 75 into games.  I don't really know what right way to do it would be but I just want a football season.   

Folks over 75 (or any age fit they matter) should be given the same opportunity as all others.  
 

They should understand the risks.

Not sure you can mandate anything.

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18 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

Michigan.......

ADE402D6-8E1A-4060-BB1C-46774A4E0EDF.jpeg

I don’t see any problems here.

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I will go out on limb here and say things are heading in wrong direction. Schools & sports will either open and then pull back after a month or so (maybe sooner) after they figure out this is to hard to control/monitor/manage. Hate to say it, have kids in school, but just think this problem is way to big to handle at this time

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2 hours ago, psaboy said:

I will go out on limb here and say things are heading in wrong direction. Schools & sports will either open and then pull back after a month or so (maybe sooner) after they figure out this is to hard to control/monitor/manage. Hate to say it, have kids in school, but just think this problem is way to big to handle at this time

If it heads in that direction, the IHSAA could cut the regular season to as little as 4 games. That’s the minimum # needed to qualify for the tournament under the current bylaws. But there will be a tournament. Economics dictates that.

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12 minutes ago, Bobref said:

If it heads in that direction, the IHSAA could cut the regular season to as little as 4 games. That’s the minimum # needed to qualify for the tournament under the current bylaws. But there will be a tournament. Economics dictates that.

Thinking outside the box a bit; let's say there are a number of teams that have shut down for the season because of the number of cases they have in program, school, or even district. The IHSAA could consider adjusting classes; whatever that would look like. It could make for some interesting post season match ups. 

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9 minutes ago, Bobref said:

If it heads in that direction, the IHSAA could cut the regular season to as little as 4 games. That’s the minimum # needed to qualify for the tournament under the current bylaws. But there will be a tournament. Economics dictates that.

Hope there is some form of games and tourney. It will be interesting to see how smaller schools can handle outbreaks vs larger schools. Smaller schools/teams (1A thru 3/4A), as you know are not as deep 5A/6A that could handle a 20-30 kid exposure outbreak. We will see, but I'm not holding up to much hope. 

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17 minutes ago, boilerfan87 said:

The TSSAA (Tennessee) announced they are delaying the season. 

 

https://www.wbir.com/article/sports/tssaa-football-and-girls-soccer-to-be-delayed-due-to-extended-state-of-emergency-in-tennessee/51-7c70d34c-22b1-4dc1-a745-c387260ce2c0

 

No details yet on how they will proceed. 

Interesting news, and I’m not totally shocked.  

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If (let me stress IF) fall sports are canceled (fully/partially), I pray all stakeholders (parents, athletes, teachers, schools, coaches, boards, etc.) really take a stand. If the riots, looting, burning, vandalizing, pride parades, protests of all kinds, etc are allowed to occur with nothing be done, then sports must be allowed to go on. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, DannEllenwood said:

If (let me stress IF) fall sports are canceled (fully/partially), I pray all stakeholders (parents, athletes, teachers, schools, coaches, boards, etc.) really take a stand. If the riots, looting, burning, vandalizing, pride parades, protests of all kinds, etc are allowed to occur with nothing be done, then sports must be allowed to go on. 

Try as I might, I cannot see the logic behind this. It reminds me of when I was a little kid, and one of my friends got to do something I wanted to do, but my parents wouldn’t let me because they thought it was unsafe. I would stamp my foot and wail about the unfairness of kids getting to do something that I couldn’t. I guess I’ve sort of answered my own question: it’s “little kids logic.”

Edited by Bobref
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1 hour ago, Bobref said:

Try as I might, I cannot see the logic behind this. It reminds me of when I was a little kid, and one of my friends got to do something I wanted to do, but my parents wouldn’t let me because they thought it was unsafe. I would stamp my foot and wail about the unfairness of kids getting to do something that I couldn’t. I guess I’ve sort of answered my own question: it’s “little kids logic.”

I didn't see it that way.  I see it more about being consistent about controlling the risk....I think what makes this challenging is agreement to the magnitude of the risk.

If fall sports is shut down. Coach DE is saying shut it all down.  Shut down schools, shut down all sports, etc.  If the risk is too great to play high school sports in those venues, what sense does it make for a city to allow countless thousands to mass together to protest, gather in pro stadiums, etc?  Youth sports is going on in many places with crowds gathering, no masks, no social distancing, etc.  People are going back to work, restaurants open, etc.  

Why single out high school sports if all of the other is allowed?

I think he is saying be consistent.  What is good for the goose......

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18 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

I didn't see it that way.  I see it more about being consistent about controlling the risk....I think what makes this challenging is agreement to the magnitude of the risk.

If fall sports is shut down. Coach DE is saying shut it all down.  Shut down schools, shut down all sports, etc.  If the risk is too great to play high school sports in those venues, what sense does it make for a city to allow countless thousands to mass together to protest, gather in pro stadiums, etc?  Youth sports is going on in many places with crowds gathering, no masks, no social distancing, etc.  People are going back to work, restaurants open, etc.  

Why single out high school sports if all of the other is allowed?

I think he is saying be consistent.  What is good for the goose......

Couldn’t agree more about consistency, and if that’s the argument he’s trying to make, he’s done a poor job of it. It’s the part about riots and protests that strikes me as wrongheaded ... and makes me think his statement is more about politics than public health.

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1 minute ago, Bobref said:

Couldn’t agree more about consistency, and if that’s the argument he’s trying to make, he’s done a poor job of it. It’s the part about riots and protests that strikes me as wrongheaded ... and makes me think his statement is more about politics than public health.

Perhaps so...I don't know.  But politics aside...if this is truly about controlling exposure, it would seem there is a ton of inconsistency.  If sports is the focus, especially outdoor high school venues, then there are so many other things that should be ceased first...and that would include indoor schools, mass gatherings for protests or any other large gathering, etc.

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8 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

Perhaps so...I don't know.  But politics aside...if this is truly about controlling exposure, it would seem there is a ton of inconsistency.  If sports is the focus, especially outdoor high school venues, then there are so many other things that should be ceased first...and that would include indoor schools, mass gatherings for protests or any other large gathering, etc.

YES!!!

The consistency piece is what makes me scratch my head.

Minor league baseball (an activity that requires less than 100 essential personnel) just canceled their season yesterday... Yet we are talking about packing thousands of kids into schools In a few weeks.

I just don’t get it.

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2 hours ago, Bobref said:

Try as I might, I cannot see the logic behind this. It reminds me of when I was a little kid, and one of my friends got to do something I wanted to do, but my parents wouldn’t let me because they thought it was unsafe. I would stamp my foot and wail about the unfairness of kids getting to do something that I couldn’t. I guess I’ve sort of answered my own question: it’s “little kids logic.”

It absolutely is not Bob. 

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2 hours ago, Bobref said:

Try as I might, I cannot see the logic behind this. It reminds me of when I was a little kid, and one of my friends got to do something I wanted to do, but my parents wouldn’t let me because they thought it was unsafe. I would stamp my foot and wail about the unfairness of kids getting to do something that I couldn’t. I guess I’ve sort of answered my own question: it’s “little kids logic.”

Then folks in charge of those cities where these things occur, should have been working as hard as they could to get rid of all that negativity. 

28 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Couldn’t agree more about consistency, and if that’s the argument he’s trying to make, he’s done a poor job of it. It’s the part about riots and protests that strikes me as wrongheaded ... and makes me think his statement is more about politics than public health.

Just because you don’t like the way I stated something or “went about it”, doesn’t mean I am wrong. 

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49 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

I didn't see it that way.  I see it more about being consistent about controlling the risk....I think what makes this challenging is agreement to the magnitude of the risk.

If fall sports is shut down. Coach DE is saying shut it all down.  Shut down schools, shut down all sports, etc.  If the risk is too great to play high school sports in those venues, what sense does it make for a city to allow countless thousands to mass together to protest, gather in pro stadiums, etc?  Youth sports is going on in many places with crowds gathering, no masks, no social distancing, etc.  People are going back to work, restaurants open, etc.  

Why single out high school sports if all of the other is allowed?

I think he is saying be consistent.  What is good for the goose......

I am NOT saying shut it all down. 

29 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Couldn’t agree more about consistency, and if that’s the argument he’s trying to make, he’s done a poor job of it. It’s the part about riots and protests that strikes me as wrongheaded ... and makes me think his statement is more about politics than public health.

Lay out your plan then, Bob, about consistency. 

 

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2 minutes ago, DannEllenwood said:

I am NOT saying shut it all down. 

Lay out your plan then, Bob, about consistency. 

 

I know you are not....and perhaps I stated incorrectly.  But I saw your post with a central theme of inconsistency.  Perhaps I misinterpreted.  

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