Bad news from the East

[DanteEstonia]

3 hours ago, Gipper said:

The NFL my take a page out of MLB's playbook:

Rozelle League--Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington First Nations

Cosell League--Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans

Frozen Tundra League--Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, GREEN BAY PACKERS, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings

Walsh League--Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks

I see nothing wrong with this.

[Gipper]

22 minutes ago, DanteEstonia said:

I see nothing wrong with this.

Thanks.  I wonder why steps haven’t been taken yet.  Although some these distances are pretty far like LA-Seattle and Dallas-Seattle, it beats the National Travel like New York-San Francisco, etc.

 

But as I look at my roster, I now realize I left out Carolina and Tampa Bay.  Put them in Cosell and the two Texas teams of Dallas and Houston in the Walsh.

[Plymouthfan91]

4 hours ago, Temptation said:

Possible worse news from the south...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/07/09/texas-high-school-football-doubt-after-dallas-schools-leaders-comments/?outputType=amp

So maybe in April and May we should've listened to the science and stopped mass gatherings, made masks mandatory, and not allowed bars to open.  The American people as a whole are spoiled and when they are asked to do make a sacrifice (I use this term loosely because this really isn't a sacrifice) they pout and say it is their right.  This isn't the "cancel" culture but it is a "selfish" culture that we have.  Now as we go down this path in the South how long before it causes those of us who listened to science and tried to do what was right have to tell our kids they will miss another sports season or another school year because of the "selfishness" of people.  This amazes me bu doesn't surprise me.

[Plymouthfan91]

21 hours ago, DannEllenwood said:

And still charging close to 50K. What a joke. 

They fully recover in days, like 99.9% of the population. 

Last check says that 91% of the cases were patients who either recovered or were discharged.  9% died.  If the population of the US is 331 million then that would account for a little under 31 million deaths.  Now is your 99.9 % rate is correct that would mean 331,000 deaths.  I would assume that the number is somewhere between the 331,000 and 31 million.  We have lost about 135,000 people so far.  Irregardless of the number you use that is a lot of people who die from something that could've been less if we wore masks, practiced social distancing, and listened to science.  I worry that your belief system will be followed by your students and this lack of empathy is what you are teaching them.  I wonder if your local school board has heard your thoughts on this or are you just a keyboard warrior.  

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

Last check says that 91% of the cases were patients who either recovered or were discharged.  9% died.  If the population of the US is 331 million then that would account for a little under 31 million deaths.  Now is your 99.9 % rate is correct that would mean 331,000 deaths.  I would assume that the number is somewhere between the 331,000 and 31 million.  We have lost about 135,000 people so far.  Irregardless of the number you use that is a lot of people who die from something that could've been less if we wore masks, practiced social distancing, and listened to science.  I worry that your belief system will be followed by your students and this lack of empathy is what you are teaching them.  I wonder if your local school board has heard your thoughts on this or are you just a keyboard warrior.  

So I can’t have my own personal thoughts?  Got it. 

[psaboy]

10 hours ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

Last check says that 91% of the cases were patients who either recovered or were discharged.  9% died.  If the population of the US is 331 million then that would account for a little under 31 million deaths.  Now is your 99.9 % rate is correct that would mean 331,000 deaths.  I would assume that the number is somewhere between the 331,000 and 31 million.  We have lost about 135,000 people so far.  Irregardless of the number you use that is a lot of people who die from something that could've been less if we wore masks, practiced social distancing, and listened to science.  I worry that your belief system will be followed by your students and this lack of empathy is what you are teaching them.  I wonder if your local school board has heard your thoughts on this or are you just a keyboard warrior.  

That is fake news. There is not a 9% death rate. You have incorrect information or you are trying to spread more fear. 

[Plymouthfan91]

41 minutes ago, psaboy said:

That is fake news. There is not a 9% death rate. You have incorrect information or you are trying to spread more fear. 

I have posted my source.  Where does the 99.9% number come from?  The point of the 9% is to show that the extremes are there but in reality it is somewhere in the middle. of those numbers.  When people don't like the information that they hear about the virus they instantly want to avoid facts and say it is spreading fear.  All I want to do is listen to the scientists.  Avoid large gathering, wear a mask, social distance, and wash your hands.  If we do those things we will be fine.  The CEO of SJRMC in northern Indiana posted this in his daily email:

"I have had several separate conversations recently about the prevalence of younger positive COVID cases, and good friends suggesting that we should "just let the kids catch it so that we can get to heard immunity". Not a far-fetched idea, but I strongly urge anyone considering that to wipe that thought from your mind because we have no idea what the long-term effects will be. Would you really allow your child to catch an infectious disease for which there is no treatment, no way of knowing how their body will react, no way of knowing what long-term organ damage might occur, and how do you keep him / her away from other vulnerable people in your family? And, if herd immunity requires about 70% with antibodies, that would mean roughly 630,000 people just within our Michiana service area of 900,000. We are still seeing roughly 5% nationally of those confirmed cases to require time in the ICU before an amazing recovery or death. That would mean 31,500 needing one of our 25 ICU beds. Yes, Saint Joseph can increase our ICU beds to 82 if we shut down the rest of our non-COVID business, but then where will the typical non-COVID strokes, heart attacks, and fragile diabetics go for life saving care? If or when we begin to see a surge, does anyone have suggestions how we begin to decide who gets the beds and ventilators? Folks, this is getting real, and this actual scenario is beginning to play out right now in some areas of Arizona, Texas, and Florida. Hospitals there may reach capacity soon and new cases are accelerating. They are preparing for some very difficult decisions in their surge planning.

Based on what we do know, this is not the flu; this is not chickenpox. This has only been in our country about four to six months, and it is possible we will eventually hear some good news about this virus. But so far, its daunting and we must take this seriously. Please wear a mask when you cannot maintain a safe distance, and please wash your hands more frequently than you ever have before in your life. There are so many decisions we face every day to which our answer is "Ok, no problem". Why pick a fight now in this time of uncertainty because Houston, we really do have a problem."

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Plymouthfan91

[wabashalwaysfights]

6 minutes ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

All I want to do is listen to the scientists. 

 

*pokes head out*

Which scientists though?

*ducks to avoid shrapnel*

 

In all seriousness though, I think @Raven67was one of the first to float this months ago, but I find myself contemplating spring high school football more and more. Still don't like it, still don't want it to happen, but whereas I was 100% sure it wouldn't happen 12 weeks ago, I'm only like 95% sure it won't happen today. But it's also July 10, 2020 at 8:27am.

[psaboy]

12 hours ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

Last check says that 91% of the cases were patients who either recovered or were discharged.  9% died.  If the population of the US is 331 million then that would account for a little under 31 million deaths.  Now is your 99.9 % rate is correct that would mean 331,000 deaths.  I would assume that the number is somewhere between the 331,000 and 31 million.  We have lost about 135,000 people so far.  Irregardless of the number you use that is a lot of people who die from something that could've been less if we wore masks, practiced social distancing, and listened to science.  I worry that your belief system will be followed by your students and this lack of empathy is what you are teaching them.  I wonder if your local school board has heard your thoughts on this or are you just a keyboard warrior.  

Well, obviously you are challenged by simple math. Your source states 135,838 deaths. If you divide that by your population figure of 331 million, that equals a death rate of less than 0.5%

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

Last check says that 91% of the cases were patients who either recovered or were discharged.  9% died.  If the population of the US is 331 million then that would account for a little under 31 million deaths.  Now is your 99.9 % rate is correct that would mean 331,000 deaths.  I would assume that the number is somewhere between the 331,000 and 31 million.  We have lost about 135,000 people so far.  Irregardless of the number you use that is a lot of people who die from something that could've been less if we wore masks, practiced social distancing, and listened to science.  I worry that your belief system will be followed by your students and this lack of empathy is what you are teaching them.  I wonder if your local school board has heard your thoughts on this or are you just a keyboard warrior.  

What an embarrassing response by you, specifically your last two statements.

I am willing to bet that Mr. Ellenwood has been a PROFESSIONAL educator for quite sometime now and is probably pretty damn good at his job.  There is a big difference between PERSONAL beliefs and PROFESSIONAL beliefs AND there is a time and place for BOTH.

I’m sure that he will take the PROFESSIONAL route and follow whatever district guidelines his corporation states when it comes to masks, etc.  It comes with the job.  

This HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORUM is not a reflection of real life.  It’s nerf.  It’s an Internet forum.  Stop pretending you know someone based on a few posts that you disagree with.  Having an opinion does not make him a “keyboard warrior” and he’s not on the clock at work so he can form/state his own opinion (even if you disagree with it) on his own time.  His “local school board” is irrelevant.

Just stop it.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Guest

[Guest]

2 hours ago, psaboy said:

That is fake news. There is not a 9% death rate. You have incorrect information or you are trying to spread more fear. 

🎯 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Temptation said:

What an embarrassing response by you, specifically your last two statements.

I am willing to bet that Mr. Ellenwood has been a PROFESSIONAL educator for quite sometime now and is probably pretty damn good at his job.  There is a big difference between PERSONAL beliefs and PROFESSIONAL beliefs AND there is a time and place for BOTH.

I’m sure that he will take the PROFESSIONAL route and follow whatever district guidelines his corporation states when it comes to masks, etc.  It comes with the job.  

This HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORUM is not a reflection of real life.  It’s nerf.  It’s an Internet forum.  Stop pretending you know someone based on a few posts that you disagree with.  Having an opinion does not make him a “keyboard warrior” and he’s not on the clock at work so he can form/state his own opinion (even if you disagree with it) on his own time.  His “local school board” is irrelevant.

Just stop it.

Yes sir. If my bosses say wear a mask, I’ll wear a mask. Just as I did on the airplane to Florida. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Temptation said:

What an embarrassing response by you, specifically your last two statements.

I am willing to bet that Mr. Ellenwood has been a PROFESSIONAL educator for quite sometime now and is probably pretty damn good at his job.  There is a big difference between PERSONAL beliefs and PROFESSIONAL beliefs AND there is a time and place for BOTH.

I’m sure that he will take the PROFESSIONAL route and follow whatever district guidelines his corporation states when it comes to masks, etc.  It comes with the job.  

This HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORUM is not a reflection of real life.  It’s nerf.  It’s an Internet forum.  Stop pretending you know someone based on a few posts that you disagree with.  Having an opinion does not make him a “keyboard warrior” and he’s not on the clock at work so he can form/state his own opinion (even if you disagree with it) on his own time.  His “local school board” is irrelevant.

Just stop it.

Thank you for the kind words. 

 

[wabashalwaysfights]

8 minutes ago, DannEllenwood said:

Yes sir. If my bosses say wear a mask, I’ll wear a mask. Just as I did on the airplane to Florida. 

Ditto.

[foxbat]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

Well, obviously you are challenged by simple math. Your source states 135,838 deaths. If you divide that by your population figure of 331 million, that equals a death rate of less than 0.5%

Before we all shoot from the hip, let's read the sources that folks are using.  You may not agree with them, but the number is there ... see below with the red circle.  That's where the 9% came from ... not from @Plymouthfan91 own calculations.  Similarly, there's a problem in your using the total population and the current deaths as it is mixing population with sample and would pre-suppose that EVERYONE in the US has already contracted COVID AND had the eventual resolution.  Also, the 135,838 divided by 331 million would yield a rate of .041% which would certainly be less than .5%, but misleading somewhat in seemingly attempting to paint 135,838 as the cap in the .5% range.

Even using the total COVID cases and applying the deaths against it, you run into a number somewhere around 4.2% ... this would assume that all of the non-recovered/discharged folks ended up being recovered/discharged and none of them died.  Extrapolate that to the population as a whole and you run into somewhere around over 13 million dead ... and that's at the 4.2% rate.  With that said, the 135K+ deaths that we currently have includes folks who were part of the front-end of the pandemic before social distancing/lockdown, etc.  In essence, the potential death rate if you CONTRACT COVID seems to be somewhere in the 9% upper range and 4.2%, or possibly lower, taking to account that the 4.2% is currently spanning a minimum of two different response environments.  Looking at the post lockdown/social distancing numbers would, potentially, give a better indication of lower end.  Nonetheless, applying 4.2% against the country population and you come up with a number north of 13 million deaths.  Even taking a death rate after contraction of just 2%, it ends up being some 7 million+. 

Ultimately, what is more important in the overall scheme of figuring out "return to normal" is determining the likelihood of ANYONE getting this.  The # of tests done in the US is around 40 million.  Of that, we have around 3.2 million cases.  As such, extrapolating that out, you have around a 7.9% rate of HAVE COVID vs. tested for.  That number is likely to be a bit high because folks being tested likely think they have it or are pre-supposed to get tested.  Nonetheless, it's where we mainly are on testing, so assuming roughly a similar infection and death rate, you are looking at around a .3% death rate of those that die vs. those tested and using tested as a surrogate for the population.  That still clocks in at just under 1 million people against the population.  Going back to @Plymouthfan91's original post, whether you are talking about 1 million dead or 7 million dead or 13 million dead, those numbers are worth being smart about especially when you consider that last year was one of the worst years on record for flu deaths and that was around 80,000 ... we are already at 50% more than that with COVID so far.

[Plymouthfan91]

1 hour ago, DannEllenwood said:

🎯

Where does your 99.9% come from?

[Raven67]

Just an opinion, Our nursing homes in Indiana got slammed. And alot of our deaths (1220 out of 2567) were from these facilities. Currently our nursing homes have had 5581 patients test positive. Thats 299 facilities with at least 1 positive case and 199 facilities with atleast 1 death. Currently there are 239 positive cases in nursing homes and they added 54 deaths over the course of the the week before last week. Most of the new deaths that get added recently are nursing homes. I have back checked number of new deaths per day with numbers of nursing home deaths per week (since it only updates once a week) and they are very very close. When we were in our peak our nursing homes were getting ravaged. Now that 5581 nursing home patients have already been infected and 1220 died, our death rate will steady out. COVID went through our most vulnerable population in nursing homes already. Its fits the narrative. We all just heard of the 30 year old that died in texas. So when a 30 yr old dies, it makes national news.... We dont hear it alot do we? 

 

As far as spring ball... it will be hard, but atleast it will give student athletes a chance to play. Even if its a shortened season. New Mexico announced they were doing it. Illinois is expected to announce a plan later this week. I still think we should play this fall and there is no reason that with some hoops and bumps here and there we get a season in, but spring is not out of the question. 

You know, the athletes are actually only screened because they are playing. They are being held accountable to their health by there coaches. If it wasnt for sports would they be going through this type of screening and oversight by people....NOPE.... they would be hanging out with friends, going to the beach, mall, and everything else freely without being held accountable for something like football. Lets play. 

[DanteEstonia]

1 hour ago, Raven67 said:

Just an opinion, Our nursing homes in Indiana got slammed. And alot of our deaths (1220 out of 2567) were from these facilities. Currently our nursing homes have had 5581 patients test positive. Thats 299 facilities with at least 1 positive case and 199 facilities with atleast 1 death. Currently there are 239 positive cases in nursing homes and they added 54 deaths over the course of the the week before last week. Most of the new deaths that get added recently are nursing homes. I have back checked number of new deaths per day with numbers of nursing home deaths per week (since it only updates once a week) and they are very very close. When we were in our peak our nursing homes were getting ravaged. Now that 5581 nursing home patients have already been infected and 1220 died, our death rate will steady out. COVID went through our most vulnerable population in nursing homes already. Its fits the narrative. We all just heard of the 30 year old that died in texas. So when a 30 yr old dies, it makes national news.... We dont hear it alot do we? 

@DannEllenwood sais it was the Dems fault that people were dying in nursing homes.

[Raven67]

12 minutes ago, DanteEstonia said:

@DannEllenwood sais it was the Dems fault that people were dying in nursing homes.

I'm not on here to get in between a HS aged feud between adults and a keyboard. ESPECIALLY a political one. New York, democratic or not, made a huge mistake on policy early on which cause a HUGE nursing home death rate. But I never brought anything political in my post. Some of you political storks need to be asymptomatic when it comes to your opinions, just stay away.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, DanteEstonia said:

@DannEllenwood sais it was the Dems fault that people were dying in nursing homes.

I did in regards to certain states. Just read about Indiana’s deaths too. And we have a Republican Governor 

5 hours ago, DanteEstonia said:

@DannEllenwood sais it was the Dems fault that people were dying in nursing homes.

I’ll accept your apology whenever. 😉 

[Plymouthfan91]

On 7/10/2020 at 12:07 PM, Plymouthfan91 said:

Where does your 99.9% come from?

Still waiting...

[wabashalwaysfights]

Perhaps some good news, depending on your where you stand of course...

https://www.mywabashvalley.com/sports/gold-division-wins-wabash-football-all-star-game/

Did anybody on here go to/coach in the game?

[Plymouthfan91]

Our Federal Government has messed this up since we went on lockdown.  They had standards that needed to be met by states before they should've started to reduce restrictions.  When they saw that states couldn't meet these requirements as quickly as they thought they allowed states to reopen too early.  These states are in a serious situation right now.  Instead of admitting they were wrong they instead act like everything is fine.  The ignoring of the science is what has us in this situation today.  

Gov. Holcomb has been very deliberate in his reopening plan.  I expect us to stay in 4.5 for at least another two weeks.  We are in a good place but not an ideal place.  Should we start school on time?  YES!!!!! But 6-feet of social distancing and mask wearing needs to be mandatory.  This is what the science says.  

What about sports?  If we enter phase 2 of the IHSAA plan I see more teams having positive tests.  This will result in an extended down time for a lot of teams.  Playing a set schedule may become difficult.  Schools may have to change opponents based on which schools shutdown their programs and which ones don't.  It will be interesting to see how schools handle this.  This could be a fluid situation.  We may have a game with Warsaw scheduled but on Tuesday find out they can't play.  Then we see that Knox also had an opponent cancel.  Do we play them instead?

Fans in the stands?  Only if they social distance.  Families sit together and I would only allow the families of players to attend.  Student sections at least for now will be a thing of the past.  Paid online streaming of games is a possibility for the rest of the fans to watch from home.  Plus this could become a new revenue stream for the future for fans who live out of state and want to watch the games.

I am trying to keep a positive attitude about this and I feel we can do this but we need to keep an eye on the science and not open everything up until it is safe to.  

[MarshallCounty]

In my corner of the state it looks as though masks will be optional. 

[Plymouthfan91]

5 hours ago, MarshallCounty said:

In my corner of the state it looks as though masks will be optional. 

Optional isn't the word in Marshall County.  Masks will be required of all students and staff.  They will be worn when social distancing can't be maintained.  In public schools especially in our county keeping socially distant in the classroom will be close to impossible.  Everyone will be wearing masks or they will be taking classes online.