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6A Sectionals - Guessing game


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I like your projected sectionals for the most part, but I actually see Noblesville and Westfield going to S3, not the HSE schools. They are geographically "more North" even though Westfield is not located off I-69. I originally projected HSE and Noblesville in an e-mail volley I had on the 14th, but then I realized, as you pointed out as well, school districts (e.g. HSE) don't get split into different sectionals. I feel there is no chance for any school in the South to move North because it usually goes the other way in the Region's corridor according to a very wise source. The South is overflowing to the North, and there are only ten "True Northern" teams (all S1 and S2, Carroll and Homestead in S3).

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On 1/14/2019 at 3:58 PM, indycoach10 said:

Only reclassify every 2 years. So earliest they could bump is in 2021. 

This is the issue: Elkhart Memorial and Elkhart Central are two 5A schools. Both schools will no longer exist after this coming season (19-20). Then a new 6A school will exist for 20-21. So, what happens?

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1 hour ago, CoachMiller said:

This is the issue: Elkhart Memorial and Elkhart Central are two 5A schools. Both schools will no longer exist after this coming season (19-20). Then a new 6A school will exist for 20-21. So, what happens?

Just like the merger of Muncie Central and Southside, and the merger of Rockville and  Turkey Run, the unified Elkhart High School will remain in the class the two separate schools are placed in for both years of the alignment cycle.  The unified school will be in 5A for one year, then most likely move up to 6A in the next alignment cycle.  The IHSAA won’t move them up because they have no way of knowing what the actual enrollment of the school will be until that school year (2020-21) begins.  It’s too late to make a class change by that time, so they just keep schools in the class they are aligned to at the beginning of the cycle.  If they did move them up, they would have to move the smallest 6A school down, which could require a shift in all of the sectionals in 5A and 6A.

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11 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

Just like the merger of Muncie Central and Southside, and the merger of Rockville and  Turkey Run, the unified Elkhart High School will remain in the class the two separate schools are placed in for both years of the alignment cycle.  The unified school will be in 5A for one year, then most likely move up to 6A in the next alignment cycle.  The IHSAA won’t move them up because they have no way of knowing what the actual enrollment of the school will be until that school year (2020-21) begins.  It’s too late to make a class change by that time, so they just keep schools in the class they are aligned to at the beginning of the cycle.  If they did move them up, they would have to move the smallest 6A school down, which could require a shift in all of the sectionals in 5A and 6A.

Makes sense. With the 4 and 5 team Sectionals in 6A/5A, it wouldn't be that difficult to figure it out, or least much easier than it would be in some other classes, but I get your point.

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8 hours ago, CoachMiller said:

Makes sense. With the 4 and 5 team Sectionals in 6A/5A, it wouldn't be that difficult to figure it out, or least much easier than it would be in some other classes, but I get your point.

Yes, I think this makes it a certainty that the two Elkhart schools will be a part of a 5 team Sectional in 2019 so that it can just drop down to a 4 team in 2020.  A couple of the earlier projections here didn't have it that way, but I think that is the only way to go.

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The points made that Elkhart WILL NOT move up in enrollment in the midst of the two year tranches are correct. If that were the case look at the growth Arsenal had YOY with Indy schools shaking up things. They didn't move them in mid-cycle. So the new, bigger "one Elkhart" will be a very (very) big 5A school in 2020... just like Arsenal was (and Zionsville for that matter). I don't see them getting past Michigan City, Mishawaka (moved up to 5A), FW Dwenger (moved up to 5A) or even New Pal (RETURNING three D1 recruits) with the bigger enrollment and larger selection. Athletic, though they are, still some holes on those lineups in "One Elkhart."

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Let's really get crazy.... Is it possible to have an All-MIC South?  Would definitely be a shake up at the State Championship game for all those who are tired of watching an All MIC state championship game

 

Sectional 1: Crown Point, Lake Central, Merrillville, Portage

Sectional 2: Chesterton, Penn, Valparaiso, Warsaw

Sectional 3: FW Carroll, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Homestead

Sectional 4:Zionsville, Lafayette Jefferson, Noblesville, Westfield

Sectional 5: Lawrence Central, Lawrence North, North Central, Carmel

Sectional 6: Avon, Brownsburg, Pike, Ben Davis

Sectional 7: Arsenal Tech, Warren Central, Perry Meridian, Southport

Sectional 8: Center Grove, Columbus East, Columbus North, Franklin Central

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What was the original intent of forming 6A? To keep the 32 largest schools in an elite meat-grinder class where almost every game would be a tough out. Look at 6A regular season margins of victory. Look at offensive and defensive averages. Not a lot of extremism, huh? Look among your 6A coaches. Most of them love being told they can’t do something (beat Penn, Carmel, the MIC). This alignment you propose is nice for the North but there will be even more grousing from the South and the MIC. The latter(s) are the biggest proponents of seeding. They were especially vocal after the ‘17 Penn-BD title game. There are only ten “true North” teams so all solutions are imperfect. Keep Carmel in NE Indy in S4 and strive to beat them, move two HSE schools to S3 and strive to beat them as well. All the folks looking outside-in with excuses have to wipe away their tears and manage their expectations.

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So, I am simply curious, when one looks at enrollment numbers, why couldn't they just do this:

2019

6A Sectional 2-Valpo, Chesterton, Penn, Warsaw

5A Sectional 9-Munster, Michigan City, LaPorte, SB Adams

5A Sectional 10-Mishawaka, Elkhart Memorial, Elkhart Central, Concord, Goshen

2020

6A Sectional 2- Chesterton, Penn, Warsaw, Elkhart

5A Sectional 9-Munster, Michigan City, LaPorte, Valpo

5A Sectional 10-Mishawaka, Concord, Goshen, SB Adams

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12 minutes ago, CoachMiller said:

So, I am simply curious, when one looks at enrollment numbers, why couldn't they just do this:

2019

6A Sectional 2-Valpo, Chesterton, Penn, Warsaw

5A Sectional 9-Munster, Michigan City, LaPorte, SB Adams

5A Sectional 10-Mishawaka, Elkhart Memorial, Elkhart Central, Concord, Goshen

2020

6A Sectional 2- Chesterton, Penn, Warsaw, Elkhart

5A Sectional 9-Munster, Michigan City, LaPorte, Valpo

5A Sectional 10-Mishawaka, Concord, Goshen, SB Adams

I think you might be onto something here. I've heard rumblings that something like this is a very real possibility (one rumor is that it's a done deal though not official yet).

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On 1/24/2019 at 6:55 PM, CoachMiller said:

This is the issue: Elkhart Memorial and Elkhart Central are two 5A schools. Both schools will no longer exist after this coming season (19-20). Then a new 6A school will exist for 20-21. So, what happens?

If the way the IHSAA has done things in the past holds, the combined school would remain in 5A for 2020 and then move up and be reclassified for 2021-22. 

After absorbing Muncie South mid-cycle, Muncie Central competed in 4A (football) and 3A (basketball) with 1,600 students for one year. I believe a bylaw change would have to take place for that to change, so keep an eye on the IHSAA board meeting. I wrote a proposal and submitted it to my principal to be considered (that a school that consolidates mid-cycle would be reclassified with its new enrollment), but I'm not sure if it was ever submitted to the IHSAA. 

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10 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

If the way the IHSAA has done things in the past holds, the combined school would remain in 5A for 2020 and then move up and be reclassified for 2021-22. 

After absorbing Muncie South mid-cycle, Muncie Central competed in 4A (football) and 3A (basketball) with 1,600 students for one year. I believe a bylaw change would have to take place for that to change, so keep an eye on the IHSAA board meeting. I wrote a proposal and submitted it to my principal to be considered (that a school that consolidates mid-cycle would be reclassified with its new enrollment), but I'm not sure if it was ever submitted to the IHSAA. 

Exactly. There's already a precedent set as to what they'll do. Also, who cares if the combine Elkhart schools stay in 5A for 1 year. I'll be surprised if it truly matters all that much. If they go on to win the 2020 5A State Championship.... then I guess that'll make for good banter/conversations on this forum!

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 Thank you for herding the cats on this issue. There is a precedent that is set for significant enrollment change, and we have yet to see a football team who played with heavy enrollment in a lower division actually do anything worthwhile in terms of state tournament advancement to make us change the way they do it. If they’re going to do that what’s the point in doing biannual enrollment figures? 2020 Elkhart will be competitive, not great!

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

If the way the IHSAA has done things in the past holds, the combined school would remain in 5A for 2020 and then move up and be reclassified for 2021-22. 

After absorbing Muncie South mid-cycle, Muncie Central competed in 4A (football) and 3A (basketball) with 1,600 students for one year. I believe a bylaw change would have to take place for that to change, so keep an eye on the IHSAA board meeting. I wrote a proposal and submitted it to my principal to be considered (that a school that consolidates mid-cycle would be reclassified with its new enrollment), but I'm not sure if it was ever submitted to the IHSAA. 

Forgive me for not knowing the history, but was the closing of Muncie South, and the related change in school size, known two years in advance?  Just wondering if it truly is an apples to apples comparison.

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Full disclosure, what I posted was not my idea, just something someone else said.

Also, I asked why COULDN'T they do that. Saying "this is they way they have done it before" is an answer to why WOULDN'T they do that. I also am interested in the answer to Knight82's question, since I have very limited knowledge on the Muncie situation, too.

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On 2/1/2019 at 1:53 PM, Knight82 said:

Forgive me for not knowing the history, but was the closing of Muncie South, and the related change in school size, known two years in advance?  Just wondering if it truly is an apples to apples comparison.

The closing of Southside was known in advance.  However, there was no way to know what their combined enrollment would be.  It’s not as simple as adding the 2 together.  Central and Southside each had right at 900 students, but the consolidated Muncie Central ended up with around 1600.  Many left to go to the surrounding county schools.  The same could certainly happen for Elkhart.  Adding the enrollments of Central and Memorial would put them at just under 3200.  I would honestly be surprised if they even end up with 3000 when they merge.

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On 2/1/2019 at 12:33 PM, CoachMiller said:

So, I am simply curious, when one looks at enrollment numbers, why couldn't they just do this:

2019

6A Sectional 2-Valpo, Chesterton, Penn, Warsaw

5A Sectional 9-Munster, Michigan City, LaPorte, SB Adams

5A Sectional 10-Mishawaka, Elkhart Memorial, Elkhart Central, Concord, Goshen

2020

6A Sectional 2- Chesterton, Penn, Warsaw, Elkhart

5A Sectional 9-Munster, Michigan City, LaPorte, Valpo

5A Sectional 10-Mishawaka, Concord, Goshen, SB Adams

They would have to change the bylaws to allow a mid-cycle change.  Also, the IHSAA would have to consider the precedent they set by making that change.  It may work out during this cycle because of the location of the schools that would be effected.  But what if the logistics don’t work the next time soemthing like this happens?  What if Columbus East wasn’t moving up and it was Jeffersonville instead of Valpo switching classes?  The IHSAA would not want to be in a position where they have to say: Well we made the change last time because it was easy to switch a few schools from the same area.  It doesn’t work this time, so we’re not doing it.

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17 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

The IHSAA would not want to be in a position where they have to say: Well we made the change last time because it was easy to switch a few schools from the same area.  It doesn’t work this time, so we’re not doing it.

Why would that be a problem? The IHSAA is, at least in part, a decision making institution, right? If member schools believe the decision is in the best interest of high school athletics, it should OK in this case, and not necessarily applicable down the road. I don't think that precedence is always the deciding factor.

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I would agree with Bullhorn99 - nothing wrong with looking at each situation on its own and making case-specific decisions.  If the numbers would work in this case, why not do it?  It isn't the Supreme Court - precedence doesn't have to be a guiding principle.  Unlike the Muncie situation, there is no question that even if they lose more than 30% of the combined Central/Memorial student count, they will still be a 6A size.

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  • 2 months later...
On 1/14/2019 at 12:34 PM, NLCTigerFan07 said:

Posting this topic as one where users can make their guesses on what the new 6A sectional alignments will be. Here is what I would propose:

Sectional 1: Crown Point, Lake Central, Merrillville, Portage

Sectional 2: Chesterton, Penn, Valparaiso, Warsaw

Sectional 3: FW Carroll, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Homestead

Sectional 4: Carmel, Lafayette Jefferson, Noblesville, Westfield

Sectional 5: Lawrence Central, Lawrence North, North Central, Warren Central

Sectional 6: Avon, Brownsburg, Pike, Zionsville

Sectional 7: Arsenal Tech, Ben Davis, Perry Meridian, Southport

Sectional 8: Center Grove, Columbus East, Columbus North, Franklin Central

 

On 1/16/2019 at 10:39 AM, NLCTigerFan07 said:

Zionsville will 100% be placed in 6A South.

Pretty close on my predictions and was accurate that Zionsville would be put in 6A south and had all the 6A south groupings correct. Just didn't predict they would send Jeff up I-65 to the region. Part of me still thinks you could have done something like this:

Sectional 1: Crown Point, Lake Central, Merrillville, Portage

Sectional 2: Chesterton, Penn, Valparaiso, Warsaw (Elkhart still replacing Valpo in 2020)

Sectional 3: FW Carroll, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Homestead

Sectional 4: Carmel, Lafayette Jefferson, Noblesville, Westfield

My thought process with sending HSE/Fishers up I-69 is their proximity to the highway. Yes, Noblesville is further north than both of those schools, but Fishers and HSE are boht quicker trips TIME wise FW Carroll and Homestead than Noblesville is. And you have a sectional of 4 schools with 2 schools both close to each other. Noblesville definitely got the shaft travel wise in 6A.

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1 hour ago, cw13 said:

So does one think that the Bronchos level of competition throughout the season will have them prepared to enter the region sectional?

From the region here....

what coach and crew are doing at LJ, YES!!!

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