SAC week 4

[jakone]

Carroll at Northrop

Dwenger at Homestead

Luers at Concordia

Snider at South Side

Wayne at North Side

[jakone]

Carroll easily

Dwenger slightly

Concordia by 2td's

Snider easily

North Side kind of easily

[BTF]

Carroll over Northrop - mercy rule will come into play at some point in the game. Not a slam on Northrop, but a compliment to the Carroll pass game.

Dwenger over Homestead - There is a significant gap between these two teams right now. Dwenger by 2 touchdowns.

Luers over Concordia - Unless the Cadets have their QB back, I'm going with the Knights by a touchdown.

Snider over South Side - Mercy rule at some point. 

North Side over Wayne - I'm going with the Legends by 2 touchdowns. Wayne is getting better every week. It would have been 4 touchdowns in Week 1.

 

[Mebuck]

1 hour ago, jakone said:

Carroll at Northrop

Dwenger at Homestead

Luers at Concordia

Snider at South Side

Wayne at North Side

Sorry I missed last week. I was not able to open the website. 

Carroll will win. But not by mercy rule. Carroll has no defense Bruins should be able to run the ball.

Dwenger over Sparty

Luers over Cadets. 

Snider over South.

North over Wayne.

[Prospect]

Carroll at Northrop - Carroll's offense is too much for the Bruins. Carroll by 21.

Dwenger at Homestead - Homestead seems to be getting things figured out, but I dont't think it will be enough. Dwenger by 17.

Luers at Concordia - Concordia missing their QB is going to hurt them. Luers by 7

Snider at South Side - Snider by 28

Wayne at North Side - Don't think Wayne can slow down the offense of Northside. Northside by 21

[SAC_Coach]

Can anyone explain why Sagarin is so down on the SAC this year? I know it has always been affected by having only conference games but it has the SAC ranked exceptionally low this year. Just the gap between Carroll and Dwenger is very confusing. 

 

SUMMIT
CONF. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	42	Carroll (Fort Wayne)	73.45	45.64	169	73.18	43	73.07	42
2	119	Fort Wayne Dwenger	57.05	35.88	224	58.43	113	54.72	128
3	134	Fort Wayne North	53.21	58.24	95	52.04	137	53.60	133
4	148	Homestead	50.61	40.08	206	49.98	151	49.55	152
5	165	Fort Wayne Snider	46.73	53.48	127	45.99	166	45.78	169
6	189	Fort Wayne Northrop	40.44	37.11	222	39.21	191	40.31	189
7	190	Fort Wayne Concordia	40.08	42.50	191	37.23	208	40.73	186
8	199	Fort Wayne Luers	38.40	51.19	138	38.18	200	37.78	203
9	212	Fort Wayne Wayne	36.13	43.56	182	36.89	209	34.99	215
10	258	Fort Wayne South	22.48	45.36	172	21.56	261	22.14	259

[Knightmare]

1	1	Center Grove	110.84	88.05	9	110.86	1	110.68	1
2	3	Lawrence North	101.21	81.13	14	101.83	3	100.62	3
3	4	Hamilton Southeastern	100.11	92.37	5	100.09	5	99.76	4
4	5	North Central (Indianapolis)	99.59	90.75	6	100.79	4	98.42	5
5	8	Warren Central	93.86	106.55	1	92.50	10	94.68	6
6	9	Merrillville	93.85	73.15	34	94.30	7	93.32	9
7	10	Lafayette Jeff	93.59	75.83	24	94.28	8	92.87	10
8	11	Brownsburg	92.46	69.99	48	91.95	11	91.86	12
9	12	Avon	91.30	94.04	4	89.19	12	92.06	11
10	13	Carmel	89.41	100.11	2	88.32	14	89.26	13
11	16	Westfield	86.65	74.85	27	86.09	17	86.34	17
12	20	Lawrence Central	84.77	97.88	3	83.04	23	85.68	19
13	28	Elkhart	80.02	73.16	32	83.84	22	81.77	24
14	32	Fishers	77.06	74.53	30	74.73	37	78.06	32
15	33	Columbus North	76.67	63.49	67	75.54	35	77.33	34
16	38	Ben Davis	74.26	86.29	10	76.48	33	71.83	46
17	42	Carroll (Fort Wayne)	73.45	45.64	169	73.18	43	73.07	42

 

Carroll is grossly underrated.  Brownsburg and Center Grove are the only teams listed above them who I believe would beat Carroll without a doubt.  But as for the rest of the teams on this list, I would put Carroll as the favorite if they played this Friday.

[jakone]

3 minutes ago, Knightmare said:

1	1	Center Grove	110.84	88.05	9	110.86	1	110.68	1
2	3	Lawrence North	101.21	81.13	14	101.83	3	100.62	3
3	4	Hamilton Southeastern	100.11	92.37	5	100.09	5	99.76	4
4	5	North Central (Indianapolis)	99.59	90.75	6	100.79	4	98.42	5
5	8	Warren Central	93.86	106.55	1	92.50	10	94.68	6
6	9	Merrillville	93.85	73.15	34	94.30	7	93.32	9
7	10	Lafayette Jeff	93.59	75.83	24	94.28	8	92.87	10
8	11	Brownsburg	92.46	69.99	48	91.95	11	91.86	12
9	12	Avon	91.30	94.04	4	89.19	12	92.06	11
10	13	Carmel	89.41	100.11	2	88.32	14	89.26	13
11	16	Westfield	86.65	74.85	27	86.09	17	86.34	17
12	20	Lawrence Central	84.77	97.88	3	83.04	23	85.68	19
13	28	Elkhart	80.02	73.16	32	83.84	22	81.77	24
14	32	Fishers	77.06	74.53	30	74.73	37	78.06	32
15	33	Columbus North	76.67	63.49	67	75.54	35	77.33	34
16	38	Ben Davis	74.26	86.29	10	76.48	33	71.83	46
17	42	Carroll (Fort Wayne)	73.45	45.64	169	73.18	43	73.07	42

 

Carroll is grossly underrated.  Brownsburg and Center Grove are the only teams listed above them who I believe would beat Carroll without a doubt.  But as for the rest of the teams on this list, I would put Carroll as the favorite if they played this Friday.

100% agree.

[Knightmare]

55 minutes ago, jakone said:

100% agree.

Does Jeff Becker have any big offers?  I didn't see anything on 247sports.  He throws a bit of a "moon ball" but his arm strength and accuracy is impressive while making it look effortless.  He can also get out of the pocket and make plays with his feet.  I decided to check out the game against North Side because it was free and didn't cost me $10 and it was the best game on last week.

[BTF]

With regard to the Sagarin Ratings, for whatever reason, being in an island conference hurts their scores. If the same thing happens next year, Dwenger and Carroll will be in the Top 10 next week after an adjustment is made. 

Fact: Dwenger is Top 4 in 5a and Top 10 overall.

Fact: Carroll is Top 10 in 5a

[Justasportsfan]

26 minutes ago, BTF said:

With regard to the Sagarin Ratings, for whatever reason, being in an island conference hurts their scores. If the same thing happens next year, Dwenger and Carroll will be in the Top 10 next week after an adjustment is made. 

Fact: Dwenger is Top 4 in 5a and Top 10 overall.

Fact: Carroll is Top 10 in 5a

Carroll could be top 10 in 6a..it hurts that regionals always ended runs in that class over the last few years for whoever came out of the sac...moving the hounds south helps ..yet diminishes the feat..chargers may have issues with Jeff n eventually mhs..competing with yet alone beating southern 6a programs is no small task..far as this week goes:

Chargers

Saints

Knights

Panthers

Legends

[BTF]

6 minutes ago, Justasportsfan said:

Carroll could be top 10 in 6a..it hurts that regionals always ended runs in that class over the last few years for whoever came out of the sac...moving the hounds south helps ..yet diminishes the feat..chargers may have issues with Jeff n eventually mhs..competing with yet alone beating southern 6a programs is no small task..far as this week goes:

They'll be fine until they hit Penn or Merrillville. I don't know if their defense can carry them to state. 

[Justasportsfan]

1 minute ago, BTF said:

They'll be fine until they hit Penn or Merrillville. I don't know if their defense can carry them to state. 

Can scheme ever beat talent? Ala wc triple option..

[BTF]

Just now, Justasportsfan said:

Can scheme ever beat talent? Ala wc triple option..

Carmel does it all the time. 

[Justasportsfan]

1 minute ago, BTF said:

Carmel does it all the time. 

Touche' 

[psaboy]

Carroll at Northrop - Carroll by 27

Dwenger at Homestead - Saints by 13

Luers at Concordia - Cadets by 6 in OT

Snider at South Side - Snider by 28

Wayne at North Side - Legends by 10

Edited September 10, 2020 by psaboy

[psaboy]

10 hours ago, BTF said:

They'll be fine until they hit Penn or Merrillville. I don't know if their defense can carry them to state. 

I don't think Penn will be an issue this year. They may not make it out of sectional this year with Elkhart mega there now.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

I don't think Penn will be an issue this year. They may not make it out of sectional this year with Elkhart mega there now.

They looked pretty good against Valpo, who is probably Top 10 regardless of class. I'm not sure I'd consider Penn's loss to Cathedral. They will do that to a lot of good teams this year.

[psaboy]

12 hours ago, BTF said:

They looked pretty good against Valpo, who is probably Top 10 regardless of class. I'm not sure I'd consider Penn's loss to Cathedral. They will do that to a lot of good teams this year.

I think the game vs East Noble will give us more indication of how good they are/can be. 

 

[Robert]

I'm a little out of the loop.  How is attendance handled this week? 

Carroll at Northrop

Dwenger at Homestead

Luers at Concordia

Snider at South Side

Wayne at North Side

 

My head

Chargers

Saints

Cadets if QB, no QB Knights

Panthers

Legends

My heart

Chargers

Saints

Knights

Snider

Generals

[SAC_Insider]

Would not be shocked if This week goes chalk.....and also would not be surprised if we get some major upsets. What a great year to be a SAC fan! 

 

Carroll at Northrop.......Chargers hopefully have learned from 2018 and don't crap the bed vs Bruins.....Chargers by 18

Dwenger at Homestead.................I want to pick Homestead, I think its close but......BD by 3

Luers at Concordia...................Cadets by closer than people think......CLHS by 10

Snider at South Side....................Snider is good.......Snider by 30+

Wayne at North Side..................I am going with an upset special here, something about these Generals I like. IF they can hold the ball and limit the time North is on offense I think they can do it.......Wayne by 1 

[WilELee]

On 9/9/2020 at 1:40 PM, SAC_Coach said:

Can anyone explain why Sagarin is so down on the SAC this year? I know it has always been affected by having only conference games but it has the SAC ranked exceptionally low this year. Just the gap between Carroll and Dwenger is very confusing. 

I think Sagarin's early season ratings are heavily weighted by last year's postseason runs. The SAC didn't go very deep last year. As the season moves on and last years postseason falls off the table, Sagarin's ratings breakdown for the isolated SAC, at least when trying to compare to non-conference teams. This seems to happen every year.

As far as comparing to Dwenger to Carroll, they have one common opponent, North Side. Dwenger's margin of victory was 13, Carroll's 28. This 15 point differential matches pretty well to Sagarin's 16.5 delta.

Looking at it as a fan instead of as a computer, I'd say Dwenger's style of play leads to lower margins of victory so I'll give them another touchdown against NS. I'll also say I've heard grumbling that Carroll ran up the score in the 4th, I don't agree, but they definitely didn't try to run out the clock so I'll take away a touchdown. Take 14 away from Sagarin's 16.5 and you get Carroll by a field goal. I don't think too many people would call that a crazy prediction.

 

[BTF]

5 hours ago, WilELee said:

I think Sagarin's early season ratings are heavily weighted by last year's postseason runs. The SAC didn't go very deep last year. As the season moves on and last years postseason falls off the table, Sagarin's ratings breakdown for the isolated SAC, at least when trying to compare to non-conference teams. This seems to happen every year.

As far as comparing to Dwenger to Carroll, they have one common opponent, North Side. Dwenger's margin of victory was 13, Carroll's 28. This 15 point differential matches pretty well to Sagarin's 16.5 delta.

Looking at it as a fan instead of as a computer, I'd say Dwenger's style of play leads to lower margins of victory so I'll give them another touchdown against NS. I'll also say I've heard grumbling that Carroll ran up the score in the 4th, I don't agree, but they definitely didn't try to run out the clock so I'll take away a touchdown. Take 14 away from Sagarin's 16.5 and you get Carroll by a field goal. I don't think too many people would call that a crazy prediction.

 

The same thing happened last year. Not one SAC team in the Top 50 and the very next week there were three in the Top 10.

[BTF]

Six SAC teams in this weeks Sagarin Top 28.