Follow the Science? How COVID Authoritarians Get It Wrong

[Alduflux]

5 hours ago, swordfish said:

Unrealistically I would remove all mandates and let people do as they wish.  

 

You mean like Sweden?

Sweden did no such thing.

[Alduflux]

8 hours ago, Muda69 said:

School Threatens 12-Year-Old With Arrest for Allegedly Missing 90 Minutes of Zoom Class

https://reason.com/2020/10/23/school-zoom-class-arrest-lafayette-mark-mastrov/

Government, and that it includes the public school system, will take any opening it can to insert itself into the private lives of citizens.

 

To be fair this instance has nothing to do with science or covid.

[Muda69]

14 hours ago, Alduflux said:

To be fair this instance has nothing to do with science or covid.

It most certainly does.  It is covid that is the reason behind the "virtual learning" trend, is it not?

 

[swordfish]

15 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Sweden did no such thing.

Maybe your right - technically they didn't start with "mandates"......

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

Sweden’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic is out of step with much of the world. The government never ordered a “shutdown” and kept day care centers and primary schools open. While cities worldwide turned into ghost towns, Swedes could be seen chatting in cafés and working out at the gym. The contrast evoked both admiration and alarm in other countries, with journalists and experts debating whether the strategy was brilliant—or whether Tegnell, its main architect, had lost the plot.

 

 

[Alduflux]

8 hours ago, Muda69 said:

It most certainly does.  It is covid that is the reason behind the "virtual learning" trend, is it not?

 

Of course Covid is responsible for virtual learning.  Your  point of contention isn't with virtual learning, but rather enforcing a rule that was written before Covid existed.

[Alduflux]

8 hours ago, swordfish said:

Maybe your right - technically they didn't start with "mandates"......

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/it-s-been-so-so-surreal-critics-sweden-s-lax-pandemic-policies-face-fierce-backlash

Sweden’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic is out of step with much of the world. The government never ordered a “shutdown” and kept day care centers and primary schools open. While cities worldwide turned into ghost towns, Swedes could be seen chatting in cafés and working out at the gym. The contrast evoked both admiration and alarm in other countries, with journalists and experts debating whether the strategy was brilliant—or whether Tegnell, its main architect, had lost the plot.

 

 

I suppose it depends on the difference between a mandate and a restriction.

 

-----------------------

Scally said the report also sought to tackle the “myths” that Sweden had not imposed any restrictions to curb the spread of covid-19.

The report highlighted that on 17 March, Sweden moved to online learning only for all children 16 and over and university students, and did not return to face-to-face teaching until the middle of June. Schools for children under 16 stayed open, but have had small class sizes, social distancing, and hygiene measures put in place.

It also noted that Sweden has had other restrictions such as a ban on travel from outside the European Union (in place until November 2020), a ban on visiting retirement homes until October 2020, and a continuing ban on gatherings of more than 50 people.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3765

[Muda69]

14 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Of course Covid is responsible for virtual learning.  Your  point of contention isn't with virtual learning, but rather enforcing a rule that was written before Covid existed.

Would a child get threatened with arrest for missing the first 90 minutes of a physical school day?

 

[Muda69]

From our friends in Gitma Nation East:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8888639/Government-stop-large-families-meeting-Christmas-bloc-cross-tier-gatherings.html

Quote

Ministers are prepared to act to stop illegal large family gatherings this Christmas, a Cabinet minister warned today.

Environment Secretary George Eustice also said that even festive gatherings that adhere to the Rule of Six could be outlawed if they include people living in different lockdown tiers.

His comments came as Boris Johnson was presented with a Christmas nightmare by Sage scientific advisers who warned that the second wave of coronavirus will be  even deadlier than the first. 

Speaking to LBC this morning Mr Eustice said it is 'too early to say' how lockdowns could affect festivities, but added 'Obviously if we do need to have restrictions in place, and prevent families from coming together in large gatherings, if that's necessary to control the virus that's what we'll have to do.'

Asked on Times Radio if families from different tiers would be able to spend Christmas together, he added this is 'not provided for currently'. 

Mr Eustice was speaking after a police chief warned that Christmas family celebrations could be broken up by police officers entering homes if they flout lockdown rules.

David Jamieson, the West Midlands police and crime commissioner, said officers will investigate reports of rule-breaking over the festive period.

The West Midlands is currently under Tier 2 restrictions, meaning people cannot mix with any other households or bubbles inside.

.....

Police State indeed.

 

[Muda69]

Meanwhile, tyranny in California looks a lot like this:

 

[Alduflux]

9 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Would a child get threatened with arrest for missing the first 90 minutes of a physical school day?

 

Do you even bother reading the articles you post?  Again, this article has nothing to do with science or covid.

 

 

"The law says any kid who misses three full days of school or is tardy for a 30-minute class period on three separate occasions can face jail time.

The policy was obviously intended to cover unexcused absences for in-person education, but the district apparently intends to apply it to virtual education as well."

[Muda69]

5 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Do you even bother reading the articles you post?  Again, this article has nothing to do with science or covid.

 

 

"The law says any kid who misses three full days of school or is tardy for a 30-minute class period on three separate occasions can face jail time.

The policy was obviously intended to cover unexcused absences for in-person education, but the district apparently intends to apply it to virtual education as well."

Yes, I read it thoroughly.  Now are you going to answer my question?

 

[Alduflux]

14 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Would a child get threatened with arrest for missing the first 90 minutes of a physical school day?

 

Of course not.  That should be obvious from the "three separate occasions" part of the law if you bothered reading it.  The "90 minutes" part of the article is just a quote from a overreacting parent.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Alduflux

[DanteEstonia]

6 hours ago, Alduflux said:

but the district apparently intends to apply it to virtual education as well.

And therein lies the problem- the State of California didn't mandate that distance ed attendance policies apply to situations like this. In the Great State of Nevada we are using the State's distance ed guidelines. 

[Muda69]

10 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Of course not.  That should be obvious from the "three separate occasions" part of the law if you bothered reading it.  The "90 minutes" part of the article is just a quote from a overreacting parent.

Who are you, or the state for that matter,  to make the determination that a parent is overreacting when their child is threatened with incarceration for being late to Zoom meeting?

[Muda69]

A New Round of COVID-19 Restrictions Drives Illinois Eateries to Rebellion

https://reason.com/2020/10/28/a-new-round-of-covid-19-restrictions-drives-illinois-eateries-to-rebellion/

Quote

With their survival on the line amidst a new round of government restrictions targeted at slowing the spread of COVID-19, many Illinois restaurants and bars are refusing to comply. It's the sort of defiance that erupted during the early days of the pandemic, but more widespread and better organized by business owners who say they have nothing to lose, since their only other option is disaster.

This is a rebellion that could have been foreseen by anybody who understands how people necessarily respond when their backs are against the wall. In fact, it was predicted, repeatedly. That needs to be taken into account by government officials already imposing new lockdowns and poised to inflict yet more pain on a public growing increasingly unwilling to submit.

"Unless the state of Illinois takes a more reasonable approach to mitigation, thousands of restaurants are at risk of permanent closure," the Illinois Restaurant Association (IRA) warned last week. "To be clear—the IRA is not advising for operators to disobey any state orders while we strongly advocate for necessary changes to the state's mitigation plan."

But restaurateurs don't need advice on how to respond as they grapple with orders that ban indoor dining, restrict outdoor seating, limit operating hours, and implicitly promise doom.

"Stagecoach WILL be open for INDOOR dining/carry out/and delivery until further notice," the Lockport Stagecoach of Lockport, Illinois, notes on its Facebook page. "We have over 30 employees (most of whom live in Lockport with children) that depend on Stagecoach for their livelihoods."

"We are NOT trying to be rebellious or are anti-masks, anti-people's health or any of the other nonsense. This is a decision out of survival," the post adds.

More than 30 bars and restaurants in Winnebago County have been written up for ignoring pandemic restrictions, according to the Chicago Tribune. In Kankakee County, "70 area business owners met Thursday night and agreed to keep serving customers inside their establishments, despite the state's order that some counties stop indoor service to slow the coronavirus," reports Chicago's NBC affiliate.

In response, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker threatens retaliation against the eatery insurgency. "If we need to close down restaurants and bars, or take away their liquor licenses, take away their gaming licenses, we will do that," he huffed during a daily briefing.

That may not be terribly persuasive to businesses that face closure, anyway, if they aren't allowed to serve customers. And why should they sacrifice themselves when Pritzker—among other political figures—has happily exempted himself and his family from inconvenient pandemic rules?

Even if people for some reason trusted Pritzker and the rest of officialdom, another round of lockdowns is exhausting when authorities keep moving the goalposts on how long restrictions are supposed to last—well beyond the 15 days we were promised back in March.

"Shutting down the economy and society for an unspecified period of time can have large economic and psychological costs," note Guglielmo Briscese, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, Mirco Tonin for VOXEU, an economics website. "Extending the lockdown after creating the expectation that it would end by a certain date, however, might reduce people's acceptance, trust in public authorities, and ultimately reduce compliance with the rules."

Realistically, those large economic and psychological costs can't continue indefinitely. Eventually, they deplete even the most patient people's savings, attenuate relationships with customers, and erode the ability to endure hardship.

"A more stringent lockdown deepens the recession which implies that poorer parts of society find it harder to subsist," Ricardo Hausmann and Ulrich Schetter find in a working paper for the Center for International Development at Harvard University which looks at less-developed countries but is applicable to any society. "This reduces their compliance with the lockdown, and may cause deprivation of the very poor, giving rise to an excruciating trade-off between saving lives from the pandemic and from deprivation."

As we see, many people, including a large number of restaurant and bar owners in Illinois, are done with suffering government-ordered deprivation as a means of combating the pandemic. And their fears are far from exaggerated.

Yelp reported in September that restriction-related business closures are up across the country, with a majority of those closures permanent. "The restaurant industry continues to be among the most impacted with an increasing number of closures—totaling 32,109 closures as of August 31, with 19,590 of these business closures indicated to be permanent (61%)."

It's not difficult to imagine the desperation of struggling entrepreneurs contemplating a similar fate for their own livelihoods.

And fatigue with seemingly endless impositions is hardly confined to Illinois. Germans, Italians, and Spaniards took to the streets this week to protest against new limits on their lives in the name of public health.

"Protests against a fresh round of coronavirus restrictions hit about a dozen cities in Italy on Monday evening amid a surge in infection numbers across the country and the continent," according to NBC News. "Dozens of demonstrators in Turin in northern Italy threw huge firecrackers and bottles at the regional government's headquarters. Police responded with volleys of tear gas as they tried to restore order in the city."

By contrast, a multitude of eateries serving burgers and beer to paying customers in defiance of intrusive rules seems wonderfully restrained, no matter how much it upsets Pritzker.

As suggested by the Lockport Stagecoach's Facebook post, those businesses aren't just ignoring health risks. The Illinois Restaurant Association calls for "a pragmatic, tiered approach" that allows for indoor dining with reduced capacity. Many of the rebellious restaurant owners give press interviews while wearing face masks and boasting of their hygiene procedures. And, of course, they cater only to customers who voluntarily enter their premises. By all appearances, they're willing to make an effort—but not to be forced into destitution.

Officials might not agree with members of the public on how best to limit the spread of COVID-19. But letting people make their own decisions and voluntarily do business with like-minded others makes a lot more sense than pursuing an unwinnable enforcement campaign against a fed-up population.

 

[swordfish]

I remember "14 days to flatten the curve".......In early March - 8 months ago......That's a lot of 14 days there.....

[Muda69]

The Seen and the Unseen of Covid-19

https://mises.org/wire/seen-and-unseen-covid-19

Quote

...

Well, another terrifying statistic came out recently, showing the grim if entirely predictable effects all this inhuman regimentation has been having on the young, particularly those between 18 and 24. Now, the federal government has a Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. And they, among other things, look at percentages of people who have considered suicide within the previous twelve months. Now typically, before all these lockdowns occurred, in the 18–25 group, it fluctuates between just under 7 percent and 11 percent of those people have contemplated suicide in the previous 12 months. What we now know is that just in June—not twelve months, just one month—it’s now over 25 percent of them have contemplated suicide in just one month. Now why is that? We’ve taken away everything they love, deprived them of the opportunity to socialize and to experience those irreplaceable moments of youth and demanded they accept this dystopia as the new normal and tell them there’s something wrong with them if they long for normal human life, the kind that is lived by humans. Yeah, that’s selfish, that right there. That’s selfish.

One of my friends has a friend in Melbourne, Australia, which is under a severe lockdown. Here’s what this friend wrote:

It’s been three months since I saw another human face besides [my partner’s].

Seven months since [my partner] and I had a little break together in the form of going and having a coffee down the street.

Over a year since I last sat out in nature. Sitting staring at the wall for two hours, again, unable to move.

Despair

Horrible negative emotions virtually all day.

Awake and tired nights, distress.

I can’t think of anything to look forward to because I don’t know when we will be allowed to do anything.

Just go for a drive, go to the forest.

Just go somewhere together, far from all this.

We are not allowed.

The police could enter our homes at any point and arrest us if we say the “wrong” thing online. That has happened.

This doesn’t feel human.

I don’t smile.

I don’t laugh.

I worked out the other day and I felt nothing, no pain.

Nothing would register as pain.

I couldn’t feel anything.

I feel far away from myself.

Sometimes I forget how long the day has been going for.

Does it matter?

You’re not allowed to leave, even if family members are terminally ill. They could die before we are let out of Melbourne. We got told it isn’t a good enough reason to be let out.

You aren’t allowed more than five kilometers from your house.

You aren’t allowed to buy a takeaway coffee and sit under a tree or on the ground anywhere that isn’t your house.

This isn’t human.

This isn’t human.

This isn’t human.

This isn’t human.

There is no empathy here.

No price is too high.

Suicide is not too great a price to pay.

Self-harm is not too great a price to pay.

Structural brain changes in large portions of the population is not too high a price to pay.

Do you know what prolonged social isolation does to the brain?

We are made to feel it does not matter because all we are, are numbers.

We are not people; we are the masses without a say

Without a time period to look forward to when we can hug again

I am sharing my experience because you should know the truth.

Sincerely,

A faceless number in Melbourne.

[From the 2020 Supporters Summit, presented at the historic Jekyll Island Club Resort on Jekyll Island, Georgia, on October 9, 2020. Read and see the full lecture.] 

Chilling.  And sad.

 

[swordfish]

2 hours ago, Muda69 said:

The Seen and the Unseen of Covid-19

https://mises.org/wire/seen-and-unseen-covid-19

Chilling.  And sad.

 

Yeahbut - Coronavirus......

[Alduflux]

8 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Who are you, or the state for that matter,  to make the determination that a parent is overreacting when their child is threatened with incarceration for being late to Zoom meeting?

We are a nation of laws written by our elected representatives.  Law breakers should be punished. 

The state didn't say the parent overreacted.  I did because he is.

[Alduflux]

...and he wasn't late for a zoom meeting.  He had three unexcused absences from school.

[swordfish]

[Muda69]

On 10/29/2020 at 4:27 PM, Alduflux said:

We are a nation of laws written by our elected representatives.  Law breakers should be punished. 

The state didn't say the parent overreacted.  I did because he is.

Yes, punish the children by incarcerating them for being late for a Zoom class.   That will teach them to respect and love the state.

Have you ever broken a law, Alduflux?

 

 

 

[Alduflux]

7 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Yes, punish the children by incarcerating them for being late for a Zoom class.   That will teach them to respect and love the state.

Have you ever broken a law, Alduflux?

 

 

 

Of course not.

I don't recall anyone saying anything about teaching kids to love the state.  Is that a desire of yours?

Edited November 3, 2020 by Alduflux

[Muda69]

16 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Of course not.

Hmm.  I find this hard to believe.  Do you live in your mom's basement and never leave?

 

16 hours ago, Alduflux said:

I don't recall anyone saying anything about teaching kids to love the state.  Is that a desire of yours?

Please, educate yourself on one of the primary goals behind government education.    And no, I have no desire to teach children to love the state.  Do you have such a desire?

 

[swordfish]

23 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Of course not.