Chatard v. Concordia - Regional Championship

[clhs2man]

1 hour ago, southend said:

I think the strength of regular season ,competition difference ,will shine through.  Game won’t be in doubt.  Even if the cadets score first. Which Might happen.  I don’t think it will be a shutout.  But Catholics over the Lutherans. 

Not very much difference in SOS according to Sagarin. Chatard #27 and Concordia #41. Of the remaining teams in 3A that Chatard will play, Concordia has by far the best SOS. I think the game comes down to depth. Halftime score last year was 21-14, but the second half was pretty much all Chatard. This was the only game last year, other than Cathedral, that the opponent was within 7 points at half and where they gave up more than 21 points for the entire game. Hoping for a close competitive game.

[BTF]

8 minutes ago, Purdue Pete said:

Watched the Norwell v Concordia game in person and then again today on film.  Also watched the Chatard sectional final yesterday.

I’ll be routing for Concordia but am afraid it will be in the 28-0 / 24-3 ball park.

Sagarin must not be to impressed with Oak Hill or Norwell. He has Chatard as a 27 point favorite. 

[TheDoctor22]

45 minutes ago, clhs2man said:

Not very much difference in SOS according to Sagarin.

I hadn't checked Sagarin but was just thinking the same thing reading through this.  Concordia plays in one of the better conferences in the state, so strength of schedule is not going to be a factor.  Both teams have played a tough schedule and both of won and lost some of those games.  I don't know enough about Concordia to really comment on how good they are, but I'm pretty certain its not going to be a 20+ win for either team.  

[Prospect]

1 minute ago, TheDoctor22 said:

I hadn't checked Sagarin but was just thinking the same thing reading through this.  Concordia plays in one of the better conferences in the state, so strength of schedule is not going to be a factor.  Both teams have played a tough schedule and both of won and lost some of those games.  I don't know enough about Concordia to really comment on how good they are, but I'm pretty certain its not going to be a 20+ win for either team.  

Concordia's defense is really good. Their offense has been hit or miss all season even when Davis has been in the lineup. I just don't think they can score enough against and I think it will be similar to last year and the Trojan's will extend the lead in the second half.

[Lysander]

7 minutes ago, Prospect said:

Concordia's defense is really good. Their offense has been hit or miss all season even when Davis has been in the lineup. I just don't think they can score enough against and I think it will be similar to last year and the Trojan's will extend the lead in the second half.

I’d just emphasize to everyone that this year’s Trojan squad is different than last year’s.  Last year’s group could put 21 on you if you blinked your eyes.  This year’s group is a little more methodical.  
 

One big difference this year will be the field.  It was grass last year and it was pretty wet and muddy.   It really slowed down both teams last year.

[Prospect]

Just now, Lysander said:

I’d just emphasize to everyone that this year’s Trojan squad is different than last year’s.  Last year’s group could put 21 on you if you blinked your eyes.  This year’s group is a little more methodical.  
 

One big difference this year will be the field.  It was grass last year and it was pretty wet and muddy.   It really slowed down both teams last year.

Offensively for Chatard I would agree. Looks like they are averaging about 11 less points a game than last year, but their defense is also really good. I still like Chatard by 3 tds, but we could also see a 10-0 type of game.

[Lysander]

4 minutes ago, Prospect said:

Offensively for Chatard I would agree. Looks like they are averaging about 11 less points a game than last year, but their defense is also really good. I still like Chatard by 3 tds, but we could also see a 10-0 type of game.

Running clock games were the norm last year during the regular season with Cathedral (as a losing effort) probably the only exception.  

Yeah, last year’s group played fast and the conditions at Concordia last Fall took a little getting used to.  

Edited November 11, 2020 by Lysander

[Prospect]

4 minutes ago, Lysander said:

Running clock games were the norm last year during the regular season with Cathedral (as a losing effort) probably the only exception.  

Yeah, last year’s group played fast and the conditions at Concordia last Fall took a little getting used to.  

It's was always fun watching the stadium's grass disappear from week to week 😂

[BTF]

2 hours ago, Prospect said:

It's was always fun watching the stadium's grass disappear from week to week 😂

There's no longer a game there each and every week, so that's gotta help.

[Hoosier1102]

17 hours ago, Prospect said:

Offensively for Chatard I would agree. Looks like they are averaging about 11 less points a game than last year, but their defense is also really good. I still like Chatard by 3 tds, but we could also see a 10-0 type of game.

I think this is a fair guess. Offense is completely different than last year, still a good offense no doubt, just not the explosive big name offense it was last year. Defense on the other hand is still an elite unit like it was last year, lots of juniors and now seniors stepping up in the absence of big names from last year(Mastrian, Schrader, Shepherd). As mentioned before they’ve only allowed 10 total points in the first 3 weeks of playoffs. Could see a score being somewhere around 35-7 or 28-3

[Prospect]

2 hours ago, Hoosier1102 said:

I think this is a fair guess. Offense is completely different than last year, still a good offense no doubt, just not the explosive big name offense it was last year. Defense on the other hand is still an elite unit like it was last year, lots of juniors and now seniors stepping up in the absence of big names from last year(Mastrian, Schrader, Shepherd). As mentioned before they’ve only allowed 10 total points in the first 3 weeks of playoffs. Could see a score being somewhere around 35-7 or 28-3

Totally agree. Concordia's offense is going to really need to step it up this week and the defense cannot afford to fall apart like the Carroll game. If Concordia plays a perfect, mistake free game then this will be close.

[BCstate]

Concordia was a very good team and gave Chatard all they could handle. 

[clhs2man]

Was really concerned when I found out Friday that we would be playing without our starting running back. Perhaps playing so many games short handed during the season actually helped us last night and despite being handicapped Concordia acquitted themselves very well. Chatard really won the field position part of the game forcing the Cadets to start deep in their own territory. Pinning Concordia back on their own 1 yard line late was perhaps the winning play of the game. Will be interesting to see if any other 3A team plays Chatard that close the rest of the tournament. 

[George Orwell 2]

3 hours ago, BCstate said:

Concordia was a very good team and gave Chatard all they could handle. 

Agree.  Really impressed with Concordia last night.  They had a lot of talent on the field.  Not enough players, but, the ones that were out there were really good.  Fortunately, we were able to make up the difference with depth.  Congrats on a good year.  It is too bad that these two teams won't meet again next year.  

[Lysander]

14 minutes ago, clhs2man said:

Was really concerned when I found out Friday that we would be playing without our starting running back. Perhaps playing so many games short handed during the season actually helped us last night and despite being handicapped Concordia acquitted themselves very well. Chatard really won the field position part of the game forcing the Cadets to start deep in their own territory. Pinning Concordia back on their own 1 yard line late was perhaps the winning play of the game. Will be interesting to see if any other 3A team plays Chatard that close the rest of the tournament. 

I kept looking for him all night.  I’m not big on “what if’s” but I’m not sure Chatard would have pulled it off had he been on the field given as well as the Cadets played last night.  Outside of the loss to Cathedral, last night’s game was clearly the toughest game that Chatard has played so far this year.

It’s hard to give the Cadets enough credit.  That game could have fallen either way.  As was said earlier, my sense is that Chatard’s depth and that late 4th Quarter punt to the 1 yard line sealed it.

 

BTW - Chatard is now officially in 4A.

Edited November 14, 2020 by Lysander