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Post Season Conference Analysis - Trending Up /Trending Down


Guest DT

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Without getting too deep into the woods on sagarin numbers , point differentials, and overall w-l records, some interesting mo ves were made by the big school conferences around the state this year

Trending Up :

Mid State 

Whiteland's very solid year, the continued emergence of Mooresville and the consistent play of Decatur Central are contributing to the Mid States growing reputation as the the states most balanced and , pound for pound , most competitive football conference. 

Whenever there is talk of conference realignment in central Indiana, it generally centers around the Mid State and the fact that several schools would love to get in.  The conference is blessed with a deep stable of long time coaches, excellent facilities, short travel distances and an increasingly competitive and entertaining style of football.  After the top tier, Plainfield, martinsville, Franklin and Greenwood are not far behind.  6A school Pery Meridian needs to step up its game and contribute to the legues growing reputation.  Kudos to the Mid State on a great 2020 season.

SIAC

No conference has more big games every week than the SIAC.  The additions of Vincennnes and Jasper give the SIAC a deep slate of competitive programs, with only Bosse and Harrison holding the league back.  The PPs mix perfectly in the weekly fray with the publics, and some of the PP/Public battles are now the very best in the state.  Coaching and communty support are strong.  The talent is improving.  And we are seeing more SIAC schools make deeper tournament runs than ever before.  This conference will continue to improve.  And the SIAC has proven that a closed 10 team conference really does not need to travel outside the area to find good non con competition.  

Treading Water

MIC

Center Grove has its best team ever, and the MIC Big 4 had their own little South Bracket Semi State party this past weekend, but that was all expected.  Warren had a down season.  NC and Pike were relatively quiet after making lots of noise last year.  The Lawrence Central program, not long ago the envy of the state with Tre Roberson calling the signals, is in deep trouble.   Lawrence North and its high powered offense were the story in The MIC this year, although taking second billing to the CG juggernaut.  

DAC

Merrillville is back on top in The DAC, and the Pirate program has become a transfer magnet for mercinary players looking for a COVID related landing spot.  This Merrillville team. despite having one of the lowest enrollments in the conference, has more size , speed and athleticism than any in program history.  COVID slowed down momentum at both Valpo and Michigan City, disrupting what were possibly very strong seasons for both.  Chesterton was the best of the rest, with Lake Central, Portage, Crown Point and Laporte all trending below average on the season.

NIC (Big School)

Elkhart and Marian have basically traded places with Penn and St Joe for leadership in the conference.  Penn has losts its long time stranglehold on The NIC.  Can they reach back and recapture the magic?  Or is it time for a new direction?  New Prairie slipped back in the post Radtke campaign.  South Bend schools barely made a peep, as expected.  

Trending Down

SAC

Not a good ending on the year for The SAC.  Perhaps a bitter taste after Dwenger and Homestead went down, the former in an ugly loss to Westfield.  Not as many individual stars in the conference this year, and the bottom tier is not showing much improvement.  The SAC has held its own as one of the states best pound for pound for decades, but the league took a step backwards this year.  

Hoosier Crossroads

After many years on the upswing, the HCC had a rough go of it in 2020.  The Fishers schools are not what they used to be 5 to 10 years ago.  Noblesville still has shown little progress.  Franklin Central is not ready for prime time in the HCC.  Avon had its worst season in 5 years.  BBurg once again failed to live up to post season expectations.  Westfield has grabbed this conference by the throat and made it its own.  ZV always plays above its pay grade, and they are doing it once again this year.  Coaching is suspect at many schools in this conference.  Will see soon if many of these schools have the talent, grit and drive to get back in the discussion as to which conference is the best in Indiana.

Northern Lakes Conference

The NLC seems to have fallen off the planet.  None of its schools have made much noise in the post season.  The league has few impact players.  NLC had a few big games early but not much to grab your attention as the season progressed.  This conference is quickly heading toward irrelevance.  I expected more with the addition of Mishawaka.  Plymouth, Concord and Northwood had sub par seasons.  Goshen and Wawasee are bad programs.  This leaguie needs more than just a premiere matchup between Warsaw and Mishawaka every year.  The talent is just not there.

 

 

 

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SAC

thought it was impressive that they sent 6,5,3,2A representation to regional.  Disappointing only Luers advances in 2A.

Concordia was competitive but Chatard was the better team.

Dwenger wins that game 7x out of 10. At which point I think the Narrative on the SAC changes to “Neutral”

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14 minutes ago, Purdue Pete said:

SAC

thought it was impressive that they sent 6,5,3,2A representation to regional.  Disappointing only Luers advances in 2A.

Concordia was competitive but Chatard was the better team.

Dwenger wins that game 7x out of 10. At which point I think the Narrative on the SAC changes to “Neutral”

Dwenger should have never had to travel to Zionsville.

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I disagree with your analysis of the DAC. I think the DAC has to be considered trending up. Valpo has won 3 straight regionals, Merrillville 2 straight. Valpo overcame a lot of covid and injury adversity to get there. Merrillville took down a good Elkhart team despite throwing 3 INTs, the Pirates were cruising up 14-0 until the turnover party began. Chesterton beat Penn, admittedly in a down year, but you tell me the last time when the 3rd best team in the DAC beat Penn in the playoffs. The Trojans then took Elkhart down to the wire and nearly won that game. Coach Mason told me before the season that he thought Michigan City was “a year away”, but they still took Valpo down to the wire in the sectional and had a good win over Warsaw in the regular season. I think Coach Mason feels great about his team’s prospects for next year. LaPorte played Valpo tougher than anyone expected in the sectional and had a great win over Michigan City in the regular season. I think that program is trending up. Crown Point was hit the hardest by covid this year, but this program is only a couple years away from winning 3 straight 6A sectionals. They’ll recover. Portage hasn’t been good in over a decade and definitely wasn’t going to be good this season after the Radtke fiasco combined with covid. LC is admittedly trending in the wrong direction. 

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1 hour ago, DT said:

Trending Up:

Mid State 

Whenever there is talk of conference realignment in central Indiana (usually coming from YOU 😄), it generally centers around the Mid State and the fact that several schools would love to get in.

Trending Down:

SAC

Not a good ending on the year for The SAC.  Perhaps a bitter taste after Dwenger and Homestead went down, the former in an ugly loss to Westfield.  Not as many individual stars in the conference this year, and the bottom tier is not showing much improvement.  The SAC has held its own as one of the states best pound for pound for decades, but the league took a step backwards this year.  

Northern Lakes Conference

The NLC seems to have fallen off the planet.  None of its schools have made much noise in the post season.  The league has few impact players.  NLC had a few big games early but not much to grab your attention as the season progressed.  This conference is quickly heading toward irrelevance.  I expected more with the addition of Mishawaka.  Plymouth, Concord and Northwood had sub par seasons.  Goshen and Wawasee are bad programs.  This league needs more than just a premiere matchup between Warsaw and Mishawaka every year.  The talent is just not there.

Agree with @Purdue Pete here. I'd say the SAC is in the "Treading Water" category. It's hard to have a lot of postseason success come from the class 6A and 5A schools when they are all lumped together in Sectional 3 and Sectional 11. That eliminates at least 4 SAC teams from any sort of sectional title every year. As well, when 3 of the best teams (Homestead, Carroll and Snider) are among that group, you're going to unfortunately see some good teams fall early.

While Dwenger and Homestead both losing in Regionals is tough, they also both had to make 2 hour bus rides in doing so. Not sure being at home would have helped the Spartans out that much, but it definitely played a factor in it. As well, while they did not win, Luers proved it is still a force to be reckoned with in 2A no matter how they fair in SAC play, and Concordia just had a hell of a tournament run in 3A against teams with a combined record of 28-7. Throw in the fact that bottom dwellers South Side and Wayne both won sectional games against non-SAC oppenents, I would say the SAC is far from trending down. Out of the 5 sectionals in which SAC teams compete in, a SAC member won the sectional title in 4 of them! 

With the NLC, I agree it was a bit of a down year across the board. Plymouth, Concord, and NorthWood (3 teams that have either won or shared the conference title in 15 of the last 16 years prior to this season) combined for 14 losses and a combined winning percentage of .417 😲 Heck, only 3 teams had winning seasons this year. Take out NLC newbie Mishawaka and there would have been ZERO NLC sectional champs. Granted, they only have the potential for 4 at most, but I agree it was a weak showing from the NLC this year.

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16 minutes ago, temptation said:

 

No one will take the 6A schools in the SAC seriously until they take down the HCC/MIC in November...

Hell, being competitive would be a step in the right direction for the SAC big boys...

Its getting worse every year, but the cycle can trend up, being the 2nd largest populous urban area in the state, and hopefully give the central Indiana schools some competition.

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16 minutes ago, temptation said:

Because the IHSAA stuck to their “fewer home games in the tournament” rule after Zionsville’s sectional opponent forfeited due to covid.

Ideally the IHSAA should have treated the Zionsville “forfeit win” like a “bye” game is treated in Sectionals (the time with the “bye” always travels their next game). 

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8 minutes ago, Lysander said:

Ideally the IHSAA should have treated the Zionsville “forfeit win” like a “bye” game is treated in Sectionals (the time with the “bye” always travels their next game). 

And this week they do the exact opposite and change the South Adams at LCC game TO LCC at South Adams. I'm beginning to see a trend here.

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1 hour ago, temptation said:

No one will take the HCC seriously until they take down the MIC in November...

No one will take the 6A schools in the SAC seriously until they take down the HCC/MIC in November...

Hell, being competitive would be a step in the right direction for the SAC big boys...

Being familiar with opponents may help programs win games..or at least be competitive..carrol n homestead are still attempting to build a postseason culture..knew their first meeting (I think) would be eye opening..

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3 hours ago, southend said:

Its getting worse every year, but the cycle can trend up, being the 2nd largest populous urban area in the state, and hopefully give the central Indiana schools some competition.

2nd largest City.  But Lake County (da Region) far exceeds Fort Wayne. 

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9 hours ago, DT said:

Without getting too deep into the woods on sagarin numbers , point differentials, and overall w-l records, some interesting mo ves were made by the big school conferences around the state this year

Trending Up :

Mid State 

Whiteland's very solid year, the continued emergence of Mooresville and the consistent play of Decatur Central are contributing to the Mid States growing reputation as the the states most balanced and , pound for pound , most competitive football conference. 

Whenever there is talk of conference realignment in central Indiana, it generally centers around the Mid State and the fact that several schools would love to get in.  The conference is blessed with a deep stable of long time coaches, excellent facilities, short travel distances and an increasingly competitive and entertaining style of football.  After the top tier, Plainfield, martinsville, Franklin and Greenwood are not far behind.  6A school Pery Meridian needs to step up its game and contribute to the legues growing reputation.  Kudos to the Mid State on a great 2020 season.

SIAC

No conference has more big games every week than the SIAC.  The additions of Vincennnes and Jasper give the SIAC a deep slate of competitive programs, with only Bosse and Harrison holding the league back.  The PPs mix perfectly in the weekly fray with the publics, and some of the PP/Public battles are now the very best in the state.  Coaching and communty support are strong.  The talent is improving.  And we are seeing more SIAC schools make deeper tournament runs than ever before.  This conference will continue to improve.  And the SIAC has proven that a closed 10 team conference really does not need to travel outside the area to find good non con competition.  

Treading Water

MIC

Center Grove has its best team ever, and the MIC Big 4 had their own little South Bracket Semi State party this past weekend, but that was all expected.  Warren had a down season.  NC and Pike were relatively quiet after making lots of noise last year.  The Lawrence Central program, not long ago the envy of the state with Tre Roberson calling the signals, is in deep trouble.   Lawrence North and its high powered offense were the story in The MIC this year, although taking second billing to the CG juggernaut.  

DAC

Merrillville is back on top in The DAC, and the Pirate program has become a transfer magnet for mercinary players looking for a COVID related landing spot.  This Merrillville team. despite having one of the lowest enrollments in the conference, has more size , speed and athleticism than any in program history.  COVID slowed down momentum at both Valpo and Michigan City, disrupting what were possibly very strong seasons for both.  Chesterton was the best of the rest, with Lake Central, Portage, Crown Point and Laporte all trending below average on the season.

NIC (Big School)

Elkhart and Marian have basically traded places with Penn and St Joe for leadership in the conference.  Penn has losts its long time stranglehold on The NIC.  Can they reach back and recapture the magic?  Or is it time for a new direction?  New Prairie slipped back in the post Radtke campaign.  South Bend schools barely made a peep, as expected.  

Trending Down

SAC

Not a good ending on the year for The SAC.  Perhaps a bitter taste after Dwenger and Homestead went down, the former in an ugly loss to Westfield.  Not as many individual stars in the conference this year, and the bottom tier is not showing much improvement.  The SAC has held its own as one of the states best pound for pound for decades, but the league took a step backwards this year.  

Hoosier Crossroads

After many years on the upswing, the HCC had a rough go of it in 2020.  The Fishers schools are not what they used to be 5 to 10 years ago.  Noblesville still has shown little progress.  Franklin Central is not ready for prime time in the HCC.  Avon had its worst season in 5 years.  BBurg once again failed to live up to post season expectations.  Westfield has grabbed this conference by the throat and made it its own.  ZV always plays above its pay grade, and they are doing it once again this year.  Coaching is suspect at many schools in this conference.  Will see soon if many of these schools have the talent, grit and drive to get back in the discussion as to which conference is the best in Indiana.

Northern Lakes Conference

The NLC seems to have fallen off the planet.  None of its schools have made much noise in the post season.  The league has few impact players.  NLC had a few big games early but not much to grab your attention as the season progressed.  This conference is quickly heading toward irrelevance.  I expected more with the addition of Mishawaka.  Plymouth, Concord and Northwood had sub par seasons.  Goshen and Wawasee are bad programs.  This leaguie needs more than just a premiere matchup between Warsaw and Mishawaka every year.  The talent is just not there.

 

 

 

I thought you weren't posting until the playoffs were over?

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13 hours ago, Lysander said:

Ideally the IHSAA should have treated the Zionsville “forfeit win” like a “bye” game is treated in Sectionals (the time with the “bye” always travels their next game). 

 

Add to that they now hold the tie breaker over Valpo and will host Semi-State at home as well. So Zionsville did not play a sectional championship and will host both Regional and Semi-State. 

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8 hours ago, TheStatGuy said:

I thought you weren't posting until the playoffs were over?

I changed my mind.  We can coexist peacefully.  You stay in your realm of little boy football.  Ill hang with the big guys.  Works for me.

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In regards to the NIC and NLC, it has been years since they have been the force that they once were.  Still good football in the area, just is not what it use to be.  Demographics have changed, coaches have left, and interest as a whole seem to be waning.  The Indy area schools are the heartbeat of the state, Fort Wayne schools are always tough, the Region will have a team or 2 to deal with occasionally, Lafayette holds its own. Deep down along the Wabash and Ohio, there is good ball being played.  The Michiana teams aren't caring their weight like they use to.

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19 minutes ago, MarshallCounty said:

In regards to the NIC and NLC, it has been years since they have been the force that they once were.  Still good football in the area, just is not what it use to be.  Demographics have changed, coaches have left, and interest as a whole seem to be waning.  The Indy area schools are the heartbeat of the state, Fort Wayne schools are always tough, the Region will have a team or 2 to deal with occasionally, Lafayette holds its own. Deep down along the Wabash and Ohio, there is good ball being played.  The Michiana teams aren't caring their weight like they use to.

 

19 minutes ago, MarshallCounty said:

In regards to the NIC and NLC, it has been years since they have been the force that they once were.  Still good football in the area, just is not what it use to be.  Demographics have changed, coaches have left, and interest as a whole seem to be waning.  The Indy area schools are the heartbeat of the state, Fort Wayne schools are always tough, the Region will have a team or 2 to deal with occasionally, Lafayette holds its own. Deep down along the Wabash and Ohio, there is good ball being played.  The Michiana teams aren't caring their weight like they use to.

As this area becomes more affluent, it also becomes more enamored with the lake life style, RVs and traveling, and general leisure.  Hard core activities like football, hunting, and  ice fishing are becoming passe'   They take too much time and effort.  

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