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18 minutes ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

But, by my count, there were only 3 football starters that didn’t play in the CYO. 
 

Look no farther than the CYO for dominance of the P/Ps in Cathedral, Chatard, and Roncalli. It has little to do with enrollment. 

THAT is the quintessential diamond hard fact that is impossible to dance around in these discussions.

I am not attempting make any sort of point as to whether there is some exceptionalism as to CYO rather than simply stating that these are “our” (collectively) home grown players.

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37 minutes ago, Lysander said:

There is what seems to be a detectable, almost obvious, ebb and flow to your numbers above.  In 2014, only 17% of the titles went to P/Ps which meant that certain winning Publics were going to get Success Factored up.  

 In 2015 and 2016, the P/Ps that had been “bumped” returned down and won again.

In 2017 and 2018, the P/Ps were bumped “up” again and failed to win in the next class.  During that same time for 2 straight years, P/Ps only won 17% of the titles again for 2 straight years.  The implication of that is that most of the schools being bumped will be Publics and the P/Ps that failed will return to class of origin.....moreso than any year prior.

What is the result of that Public domination in 2017 and 2018?  P/Ps (whether existing already in class or returning) won due to the fact that the prior successful Publics had been bumped up due to their success the previous 2 years.

The 67% winning rates of P/Ps in 2020 are a direct result of the inordinate success of Publics who were bumped up due to their successes in 2017 and 2018.

The Success Factor has “worked” but the “yo-yo” effect hasn’t yet been fully solved.....although the switch to 2 points to stay “up” is a step in the right direction.

I would add that it’s always going to take 2-6 years for thing to sort themselves out do to the way the 2 cycles work and how they fall.  Again, going to a rolling cycle should allow thing to shake out much more quickly as to results.

You make a lot of good observations/points. Well done and thought out. I agree 100% with the "ebb/flow" of the success factor cycle.

NOW - one point to consider is, and it is of my opinion only - is that the SF shouldn't apply to those publics. Most are the beneficiaries of successful classes going through the school, and will return to the "mean" after their cycle is through - but yet it's the younger classes (who only get one shot at this high school football thing) having to pay for the success of earlier classes.

You'll say it's the same in the P/Ps?? Sure, but again, with obvious inherent advantages, I do believe they should play by a little bit different set of rules. 

I don't think it will ever happen, but that is my belief. 

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5 minutes ago, jets said:

You make a lot of good observations/points. Well done and thought out. I agree 100% with the "ebb/flow" of the success factor cycle.

NOW - one point to consider is, and it is of my opinion only - is that the SF shouldn't apply to those publics. Most are the beneficiaries of successful classes going through the school, and will return to the "mean" after their cycle is through - but yet it's the younger classes (who only get one shot at this high school football thing) having to pay for the success of earlier classes.

You'll say it's the same in the P/Ps?? Sure, but again, with obvious inherent advantages, I do believe they should play by a little bit different set of rules. 

I don't think it will ever happen, but that is my belief. 

I get your point (and I’m not even saying I disagree) but then I look at Publics Columbus East and New Pal and they have managed sustained success (6 years and counting) in the next higher class essentially dominating it along with Cathedral.....they’ve actually had more success than Cathedral in the years they have shared 5A together.

Is it fair to compare a 4A sized school (CE and NP) to a 1A or a 2A?  Maybe not....but then I see 1A Pioneer who beats 6A Chesterton and barely falls short of a trip to LOS in 2A.

There are some Publics that seem every bit as good as P/Ps including their ability to have sustained success over the years.  In their case, I think the SF is probably appropriate.  

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On 11/26/2020 at 7:58 PM, Purdue Pete said:

I have a pretty narrow focus.  When U look at 3a north over the last 2 yr cycle u see the same 3 teams (Concordia, Marian, Chatard) gobbling up sectional/regional/semi state titles and only Chatard will be affected by the success factor.  Any sort of action that would target PP schools wouldn’t fly.  Unfortunately the success factor is probably as good as we’re going to get despite it falling short of actually leveling the playing field.  
 

Now that Chatard is gone Concordia and Marian will continue to rack up titles.  dominance is just shifted to another PP until Chatard comes back in 2 years.

Brebeuf... 

Then Evansville Memorial will return to 3A (I believe) in two years. That Sectional 32/31 will be loaded depending on who goes where with Southridge always a contender, bounce backs by Gibson Southern and Heritage Hills, Vincennes Lincoln (possibly moving south if they stay in 3A). I don't know if the Mater Dei numbers have them close to the 3A line again...

At least when Chatard was in 3A South, they didn't run their mouths like a certain team from Hendrix County. Speaking of which, are Danville and Tri-West flirting with 4A due to the never ending Indy suburban sprawl (less the eastside)?

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7 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Brebeuf... 

Then Evansville Memorial will return to 3A (I believe) in two years. That Sectional 32/31 will be loaded depending on who goes where with Southridge always a contender, bounce backs by Gibson Southern and Heritage Hills, Vincennes Lincoln (possibly moving south if they stay in 3A). I don't know if the Mater Dei numbers have them close to the 3A line again...

At least when Chatard was in 3A South, they didn't run their mouths like a certain team from Hendrix County. Speaking of which, are Danville and Tri-West flirting with 4A due to the never ending Indy suburban sprawl (less the eastside)?

Actually it looks like Brebeuf is going to be 4A.  It’s very possible that there won’t be any P/P in 3A South for ANOTHER 2 years....making it 4 years in a row.

Neither Danville or TW appear to be going to 4A this cycle.

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2 hours ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy said:

Few clarifications on Cathedral’s roster:

Nathan McCahill attended Cathedral and played freshmen ball before transferring to CG for one year. He then came back and attended CHS for junior and senior years. He was a CYO kid from St. Roch. 
 

Re: all of Marion County recruiting - we have kids from over 50 middle schools in the halls of CHS. So, yes, we absolutely need to advertise across the whole town to keep our enrollment numbers up. At $15,500/annual, it is no small task getting parents to commit to that. But, by my count, there were only 3 football starters that didn’t play in the CYO. 
 

Look no farther than the CYO for dominance of the P/Ps in Cathedral, Chatard, and Roncalli. It has little to do with enrollment. 

Probably could also mention that Nathan McCahill only became starting QB his Senior year. They had a 2 year starter at QB last year and McCahill switched to WR to just get on the field. I think he was a great team player doing whatever was needed last year and this year to help the team. He hit the ground running at 100% when he took over at QB. To me the best thing was seeing his huge success at QB this year. State game he did it more with his arm than legs, but it was probably more vindicating to play like he has all year especially after his fumble against New Pal on a big play at WR last year. He came out with a vengeance this year. Just a little added clearification.

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16 hours ago, Lysander said:

Actually it looks like Brebeuf is going to be 4A.  It’s very possible that there won’t be any P/P in 3A South for ANOTHER 2 years....making it 4 years in a row.

Neither Danville or TW appear to be going to 4A this cycle.

Mater Dei could, but I think I've seen in other threads that they have smaller classes coming up (not 100% sure)...

There's been talk of the establishment (maybe re-establishment) of a "northside" Evansville Catholic school, but of course that's up to the deanery. Evansville Day is the largest (and only non-Catholic private HS in Evansville), but have very low numbers and usually are barely able to field a competitive basketball team, but who knows -- the eastside and northside of Evansville are growing and some non-Catholic families will want to send their children to private schools. 

There have always been rumors of a Catholic High School in Dubois County and that would pull talent from Jasper, Southridge, Forest Park, Heritage Hills, and some surrounding schools which don't have football but have some very good athletic programs... It's unlikely to happen the high school (not the new one) baseball field is so close to the Church that if you hit a foul ball it goes into their cemetary...

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@hhpatriot4.  Evansville Christian started a high school a couple of years ago, so Day School is not the only non-Catholic HS. And there is zero official talk of the Evansville diocese starting (or restarting) a third high school in Evansville.  Mater Dei and Memorial are both fighting for their lives as enrollment has remained stagnant or dropped.  Evansville couldn’t support 3 40 years ago when parishes and feeder schools were full, no way we could support 3 now when feeders are no where near capacity.  The diocese can’t just close a school and build a new one 5 miles away like EVSC did with North.  

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5 hours ago, tango said:

@hhpatriot4.  Evansville Christian started a high school a couple of years ago, so Day School is not the only non-Catholic HS. And there is zero official talk of the Evansville diocese starting (or restarting) a third high school in Evansville.  Mater Dei and Memorial are both fighting for their lives as enrollment has remained stagnant or dropped.  Evansville couldn’t support 3 40 years ago when parishes and feeder schools were full, no way we could support 3 now when feeders are no where near capacity.  The diocese can’t just close a school and build a new one 5 miles away like EVSC did with North.  

Our Sacred Catholicism is dwindling in this country.  The US is becoming a nation of atheists and non believers.  Fortunately we have a growing Hispanic population that will keep the faith enduring as they become the majority ethnic group in America in 30 years.

Do you have much of a Hispanic population in the Evansville area?

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35 minutes ago, DT said:

The US is becoming a nation of atheists and non believers.  

Do you have much of a Hispanic population in the Evansville area?

I wouldn't go that far, but there is no question fewer people are claiming organized religion now.  The Church has to find ways to attract and retain young people, but that is a topic for a whole other discussion outside of the GID. And if we could solve that problem and write a book....

Yes, we do.  As a diocese I think we are getting better at inclusion, but still have a long way to go.  That is certainly an area of potential enrollment growth.      

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I don't think recruiting is an issue and we know kids move around to publics in the current environment so I'm not sure why this keeps coming up.  It's not the issue.  There are publics all over the state who have CYO like youth leagues, feeder systems etc. but all things being equal they are still disadvantaged in comparison to their enrollment equal on the private side of the fence....why?  It's been said here already, it's not what privates have....it's what they don't have.  They don't have a subset of the student population that doesn't do anything related to extracurriculars at all.  They don't have to deal with that type of Human.  In addition, EVERY public has this situation regardless of the socioeconomic status of the neighborhood the building happens to be in.  All of them.

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2 hours ago, DT said:

Our Sacred Catholicism is dwindling in this country.  The US is becoming a nation of atheists and non believers.  Fortunately we have a growing Hispanic population that will keep the faith enduring as they become the majority ethnic group in America in 30 years.

Do you have much of a Hispanic population in the Evansville area?

Yes, but will they choose American tackle football over soccer, the world's game?

 

 

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On 11/26/2020 at 12:57 PM, Lysander said:

I argued this for weeks with Coach Gallogly in 2012 when the SF was announced (largely because I thought the SF wouldn’t result in what Publics wanted) and was a lone (REALLY LONE) voice..........

So despite my earlier dislike of the SF, I’ve come around to it because it is a targeted, thoughtful and surgical approach rather than the slapdash “one size fits all” approach of an automatic bump or multiplier. 

 

Glad to see you came around Lysander 🙂  Hope you are doing well my friend. 

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6 hours ago, CoachGallogly said:

Glad to see you came around Lysander 🙂  Hope you are doing well my friend. 

Hey Coach G!

Yeah.....welllll...finally seeing your perspective a bit more clearly.  I think it’s the best of an imperfect situation at this point.

I hope things are great for you and yours up North and I do miss our little chats....particularly some of the in-game PM/texts.  

I hope you might be rejoining us more frequently in the future as well.

 

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