2021 Outlook: Over/Under 3.5

[temptation]

Taking a look at the 2021 season now that the weekend at LOS is in the rear view mirror.  If I were to give you the number 3.5 TODAY in terms of repeat champions of 2021 are you taking the over or the under?

Obviously, there will be a new champion in 3A and I believe that Roncalli/Chatard will be the overwhelming favorites in 4A.  Cathedral will once again be expected to repeat in 5A and though they lose some talented players, CG will be favored to repeat in 6A...

What say you?

[Guest DT]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Taking a look at the 2021 season now that the weekend at LOS is in the rear view mirror.  If I were to give you the number 3.5 TODAY in terms of repeat champions of 2021 are you taking the over or the under?

Obviously, there will be a new champion in 3A and I believe that Roncalli/Chatard will be the overwhelming favorites in 4A.  Cathedral will once again be expected to repeat in 5A and though they lose some talented players, CG will be favored to repeat in 6A...

What say you?

1A    Covenent

2A    Luers

3A    Marian

4A    Roncalli

5A    Cathedral

6A    Center Grove

[TheDoctor22]

Cathedral loses some very talented players, but they return the bulk of their team and have several capable playmakers in waiting.  They will be at least as good, and likely better, than they were this year.  They are a lock in 5A.

Same can be said for Roncalli.  This year was just the start for Roncalli.  They have had (and continue to have) a ton of talent coming up through the south deanery CYO schools recently.  They get a much larger majority of their CYO kids than the other deanery catholic schools.  I would throw Memorial in the mix as well, I hear they have a lot coming back next year too.  Unfortunately, Chatard won't even be in the conversation in 4A next year.

I think 3A goes to a public school next year.  Danville should be tough again, Lawrenceburg, Heritage Hills, West Lafayette are all solid contenders, but I think Gibson Southern makes the trip and takes home the crown with their stud QB leading the way.

I don't know enough about 1A or 2A to make an informed opinion, so I'm going to guess only 1 of those goes PP.

I'll take the under.  3 PP champs next year.

[foxbat]

12 minutes ago, TheDoctor22 said:

I don't know enough about 1A or 2A to make an informed opinion, so I'm going to guess only 1 of those goes PP.

 

In 2A, I think Luers brings back a decent amount from what I understand, but I think Pioneer will graduate off a sizeable chunk of talent that will make it harder for them to derail Luers.  WeBo finally moves up out of 2A after what I believe is the only three-peat in the SF era in the same class.  In addition, Southridge will remain in 3A for another cycle having pulled a Pioneer where they failed to pick up points in the first year of their SF exile and then won a regional in the second year of the cycle.

1A will see LCC moving up to 2A.  Winamac and Southwood would be the folks that I wouldn't sleep on in 1A.  I think CC could be in the mix, but again, but there's always the potential for Lutheran to rise up and play spoiler.  I thought I heard in the wings somewhere that enrollment number could see Seeger lurking close to 1A.  If that's the case, I think that definitely throws a wrinkle in things.

Edited November 30, 2020 by foxbat

[scarab527]

I’ll take the under, looks like 3 would be the realistic number of repeat champions we could see next year. Another interesting question would be a 3.5 O/U on P/P champions for next year. On that one, I think I’d have to take the over. 

[TheDoctor22]

8 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Another interesting question would be a 3.5 O/U on P/P champions for next year.

I entirely misread the original question, that's what I thought I was answering.  Every topic on the board these days is centered around P/P, so I must have subconsciously inserted that verbiage in Temp's question.

I will go under 3.5 for both P/P champs and repeat champs.  Roncalli, Cathedral, Center Grove all repeat next year.  Luers, Roncalli, Cathedral all P/P champs next year.

[Knightmare]

Does anyone else see that this is a problem?  We have the same 4 champions in 6A and P/P are over represented in State Titles compared to the number of P/P schools in the state.  If you remove the Big 4 in 6A and all P/P from State Title leaders, here is your list:

Sheridan 9

Penn 5

Hobart 4

Jimtown 4

Tri-West 4

Franklin Central 4

 

No public school under 6A has been able to maintain consistent dominance in any level like the P/P schools and the Big 4 in 6A.  This is a problem that needs addressed.  I think the answer is moving up those P/P schools from 3A-5A into 6A and 1A-2A into 4A.  Because I think Cathedral or Roncalli would have had a chance to win 6A and Luers could have beat Hobart in 4A.  Why can't the P/P schools "get better" instead of putting the blame on public schools?  It's not like Peru can just reload with kids every year because they have minimal access to kids because of their location whereas Concordia has probably 10x the access to kids compared to Peru.

 

I don't know.... I just think there's a problem with competitive balance when we have the same teams winning over and over again.  It comes to a point where it's not about the whole "get better, quit complaining, fix your feeder program" and it's time to take a real look at how to create some competitive balance

[Obi-Wan]

4 minutes ago, Knightmare said:

Does anyone else see that this is a problem?  We have the same 4 champions in 6A and P/P are over represented in State Titles compared to the number of P/P schools in the state.  If you remove the Big 4 in 6A and all P/P from State Title leaders, here is your list:

Sheridan 9

Penn 5

Hobart 4

Jimtown 4

Tri-West 4

Franklin Central 4

 

No public school under 6A has been able to maintain consistent dominance in any level like the P/P schools and the Big 4 in 6A.  This is a problem that needs addressed.  I think the answer is moving up those P/P schools from 3A-5A into 6A and 1A-2A into 4A.  Because I think Cathedral or Roncalli would have had a chance to win 6A and Luers could have beat Hobart in 4A.  Why can't the P/P schools "get better" instead of putting the blame on public schools?  It's not like Peru can just reload with kids every year because they have minimal access to kids because of their location whereas Concordia has probably 10x the access to kids compared to Peru.

 

I don't know.... I just think there's a problem with competitive balance when we have the same teams winning over and over again.  It comes to a point where it's not about the whole "get better, quit complaining, fix your feeder program" and it's time to take a real look at how to create some competitive balance

I think that this topic won't go away anytime soon, but a few other threads on here talk multiplier or seeding, in all honesty I feel like we need to get to a spot where the conference means more. Actually having to qualify to the state tournament rather than everyone gets a shot. That's my take but not I will sit back and listen to why I am dumb for that... At least I didn't say all P/P schools should be in their own class.

[fenderbender]

33 minutes ago, Knightmare said:

Does anyone else see that this is a problem?  We have the same 4 champions in 6A and P/P are over represented in State Titles compared to the number of P/P schools in the state.  If you remove the Big 4 in 6A and all P/P from State Title leaders, here is your list:

Sheridan 9

Penn 5

Hobart 4

Jimtown 4

Tri-West 4

Franklin Central 4

 

No public school under 6A has been able to maintain consistent dominance in any level like the P/P schools and the Big 4 in 6A.  This is a problem that needs addressed.  I think the answer is moving up those P/P schools from 3A-5A into 6A and 1A-2A into 4A.  Because I think Cathedral or Roncalli would have had a chance to win 6A and Luers could have beat Hobart in 4A.  Why can't the P/P schools "get better" instead of putting the blame on public schools?  It's not like Peru can just reload with kids every year because they have minimal access to kids because of their location whereas Concordia has probably 10x the access to kids compared to Peru.

 

I don't know.... I just think there's a problem with competitive balance when we have the same teams winning over and over again.  It comes to a point where it's not about the whole "get better, quit complaining, fix your feeder program" and it's time to take a real look at how to create some competitive balance

WeBo - 4

[fenderbender]

 

 

42 minutes ago, Knightmare said:

Does anyone else see that this is a problem?  We have the same 4 champions in 6A and P/P are over represented in State Titles compared to the number of P/P schools in the state.  If you remove the Big 4 in 6A and all P/P from State Title leaders, here is your list:

Sheridan 9

Penn 5

Hobart 4

Jimtown 4

Tri-West 4

Franklin Central 4

 

No public school under 6A has been able to maintain consistent dominance in any level like the P/P schools and the Big 4 in 6A.  This is a problem that needs addressed.  I think the answer is moving up those P/P schools from 3A-5A into 6A and 1A-2A into 4A.  Because I think Cathedral or Roncalli would have had a chance to win 6A and Luers could have beat Hobart in 4A.  Why can't the P/P schools "get better" instead of putting the blame on public schools?  It's not like Peru can just reload with kids every year because they have minimal access to kids because of their location whereas Concordia has probably 10x the access to kids compared to Peru.

 

I don't know.... I just think there's a problem with competitive balance when we have the same teams winning over and over again.  It comes to a point where it's not about the whole "get better, quit complaining, fix your feeder program" and it's time to take a real look at how to create some competitive balance

And if 2013 is considered the start of the SF era, no one has won more titles than Webo.   (Cathedral and Chatard both have 3 like Webo)

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by fenderbender

[Knightmare]

19 minutes ago, fenderbender said:

WeBo - 4

John Harrell must not have updated his site otherwise I would have thrown Webo in there.  

10 minutes ago, fenderbender said:

And if 2013 is considered the start of the SF era, no one has won more titles than Webo.   (Cathedral and Chatard both have 3 like Webo)

 

Interesting... Webo is on a great run and maybe they will be able to maintain it?  But, I think Webo was fortunate to make it to state and needed a FG to win it. While Chatard, Cathedral, and Roncalli all won by double digits.  And this isn't the first time we've seen those schools do that.  It's not Chatard, Cathedral, or Roncalli's fault that they are that much better than the rest of 3A, 4A, and 5A, but we've NEVER seen a public school do that.

I'm a reasonable guy, and I will not sit here and say these schools recruit.  Because they don't need too.  But, clearly there's something going on here, right?  Why won't those schools push to move up and gain more national exposure?  Those 3 schools are the only schools who could push the Big 4 and potentially win a 6A title from what I've seen over the years.

[foxbat]

5 hours ago, Knightmare said:

Does anyone else see that this is a problem?  We have the same 4 champions in 6A and P/P are over represented in State Titles compared to the number of P/P schools in the state.  If you remove the Big 4 in 6A and all P/P from State Title leaders, here is your list:

Sheridan 9

No public school under 6A has been able to maintain consistent dominance in any level like the P/P schools and the Big 4 in 6A.  This is a problem that needs addressed.  I think the answer is moving up those P/P schools from 3A-5A into 6A and 1A-2A into 4A. 

I don't know.... I just think there's a problem with competitive balance when we have the same teams winning over and over again.  It comes to a point where it's not about the whole "get better, quit complaining, fix your feeder program" and it's time to take a real look at how to create some competitive balance

The brush is a bit broad if 1A is getting drawn into that.  I've pointed out before that LCC has been around for about 60+ years.  They have a total of 8 state titles, which is less than Sheridan's 9.

Also, since 2013 and through 2020, when SF started, here's what 1A looks like in terms of multiple LOS appearances:

• LCC 2 times - 2015 and 2019 - two wins
• Linton 2 times - 2015 and 2016 - one win (lost to PP)
• North Vermillion 2 times - 2014 and 2018 - one win (lost to public)
• Pioneer 4 times - 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018 - two wins (two losses to publics)

Sectional wins, where it all starts, in 1A since SF ... minimum 3?

• Lutheran - 6
• Pioneer - 6
• Adams Central - 4
• LCC - 4
• Linton - 4
• North Vermillion - 4
• South Adams - 4
• South Putnam - 3
• Southwood - 3
• West Washington - 3
• Winamac - 3

For all the mystique, I'm not seeing the dominance outside of Lutheran with 6 sections ... and, for all the good it got them was one trip to LOS.  Pioneer had just as many and finished with 2 blue and 2 red rings for their efforts.

 

 

 

 

[BTF]

Over/Under 2.5.   Number of SAC teams playing in Indy next year on Thanksgiving weekend. I'll take the over. Luers in 2a (no one will stop them). Concordia in 3a (Chatard bumps up paving the way for the Cadets). Dwenger in 4a. Snider in 5a. 

 

5A North:

In: Snider

Out: Zionsville, Dwenger, Valpo

Really? Snider vs Cathedral for the state championship. Mark it down. 

[scarab527]

19 minutes ago, BTF said:

5A North:

In: Snider

Out: Zionsville, Dwenger, Valpo

Really? Snider vs Cathedral for the state championship. Mark it down. 

I believe both Dwenger and Valpo will still be in 5A next year. 

[BTF]

Just now, scarab527 said:

I believe both Dwenger and Valpo will still be in 5A next year. 

Dwenger's enrollment ranks 105. That puts them in 4a.

Valpo ranks 31. That should put them in 6a.

[scarab527]

2 minutes ago, BTF said:

Dwenger's enrollment ranks 105. That puts them in 4a.

Valpo ranks 31. That should put them in 6a.

Dwenger was 5A the last cycle and got the 2 points necessary to stay up. They will be 5A for this cycle. I saw in the enrollment thread that Valpo is projected to be in 5A for the next cycle, but that could be wrong. 

[BTF]

2 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Dwenger was 5A the last cycle and got the 2 points necessary to stay up. They will be 5A for this cycle. I saw in the enrollment thread that Valpo is projected to be in 5A for the next cycle, but that could be wrong. 

I think you are right about Dwenger. I forgot about the "stay up" rule. 

The enrollment figures I'm looking at has Valpo at 31.

https://www.ihsaa.org/Portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/Enrollments & Classifications/Enrollments 19202021.pdf

[Purdue Pete]

11 hours ago, TheDoctor22 said:

Cathedral loses some very talented players, but they return the bulk of their team and have several capable playmakers in waiting.  They will be at least as good, and likely better, than they were this year.  They are a lock in 5A.

Same can be said for Roncalli.  This year was just the start for Roncalli.  They have had (and continue to have) a ton of talent coming up through the south deanery CYO schools recently.  They get a much larger majority of their CYO kids than the other deanery catholic schools.  I would throw Memorial in the mix as well, I hear they have a lot coming back next year too.  Unfortunately, Chatard won't even be in the conversation in 4A next year.

I think 3A goes to a public school next year.  Danville should be tough again, Lawrenceburg, Heritage Hills, West Lafayette are all solid contenders, but I think Gibson Southern makes the trip and takes home the crown with their stud QB leading the way.

I don't know enough about 1A or 2A to make an informed opinion, so I'm going to guess only 1 of those goes PP.

I'll take the under.  3 PP champs next year.

Danville (Along with GS, LB, etc) could return their entire team and not challenge Marian.  Will have to see how sectional 28 shakes out next year but top 5 teams in 3A were from the north in 3a this year.  South was a joke.

[PhilLee]

4 minutes ago, Purdue Pete said:

Danville (Along with GS, LB, etc) could return their entire team and not challenge Marian.  Will have to see how sectional 28 shakes out next year but top 5 teams in 3A were from the north in 3a this year.  South was a joke.

From the starters from the game on Saturday, Danville only returns 3 starters on offense.  Western Boone will likely be in the southern half of 3A, if the IHSAA doesn't screw it up again.  Gibson Southern has a Purdue recruit back at QB.  Lawrenceburg returns their QB, who threw for 2000 yards and ran for 1000.  Plus 2 of 3 leading receivers and 4 top tacklers. 

[PhilLee]

12 hours ago, TheDoctor22 said:

 

Same can be said for Roncalli.  This year was just the start for Roncalli.  They have had (and continue to have) a ton of talent coming up through the south deanery CYO schools recently.  They get a much larger majority of their CYO kids than the other deanery catholic schools.  I would throw Memorial in the mix as well, I hear they have a lot coming back next year too.  Unfortunately, Chatard won't even be in the conversation in 4A next year.

 

 

Roncalli has had zero success in recent years dealing with Chatard.  Plus Chatard's younger classes coming up are loaded. I would not be so quick to eliminate them from the conversation. 

[Purdue Pete]

28 minutes ago, PhilLee said:

From the starters from the game on Saturday, Danville only returns 3 starters on offense.  Western Boone will likely be in the southern half of 3A, if the IHSAA doesn't screw it up again.  Gibson Southern has a Purdue recruit back at QB.  Lawrenceburg returns their QB, who threw for 2000 yards and ran for 1000.  Plus 2 of 3 leading receivers and 4 top tacklers. 

Let’s hope they can keep the game within 40

[fenderbender]

9 hours ago, PhilLee said:

 

Roncalli has had zero success in recent years dealing with Chatard.  Plus Chatard's younger classes coming up are loaded. I would not be so quick to eliminate them from the conversation. 

Chatard's SO class is not your typical Chatard group and someone from Chatard on the forum confirmed it.  They said they expect two down years for Chatard.  Roncalli SO beat them as FR 30-6 and the game was not that close.  Roncalli also won the JV game this year with 4 SO lineman starting varsity and and the expected SO QB missing the season with a knee injury .   

They did say their FR class is very good.

[TheDoctor22]

1 hour ago, fenderbender said:

Chatard's SO class is not your typical Chatard group and someone from Chatard on the forum confirmed it.  They said they expect two down years for Chatard.  Roncalli SO beat them as FR 30-6 and the game was not that close.  Roncalli also won the JV game this year with 4 SO lineman starting varsity and and the expected SO QB missing the season with a knee injury .   

They did say their FR class is very good.

Agree with all of this.  Just looking at freshman/JV records and number of players getting varsity playing time, the current sophomore class is one of the most "down" in recent memory.  The next two years could be difficult for Chatard fans, but I think many of the current freshman will get varsity playing time next year, which should reap benefits down the road.  I have also been extremely impressed with the coaching staff's ability to develop players and get the most out of the talent on hand.  I was skeptical all year that Chatard could repeat 2019's performance with how much they graduated, but they absolutely did so.  I'm admittedly biased, but I think the current coaching staff is as good as any in the state, so I'm not going to completely count the Trojans out yet.  But I do think Roncalli will be the overwhelming favorite to win the Circle City and whatever sectional they and Chatard inevitably end up in.

[Purdue Pete]

14 hours ago, BTF said:

Over/Under 2.5.   Number of SAC teams playing in Indy next year on Thanksgiving weekend. I'll take the over. Luers in 2a (no one will stop them). Concordia in 3a (Chatard bumps up paving the way for the Cadets). Dwenger in 4a. Snider in 5a. 

 

5A North:

In: Snider

Out: Zionsville, Dwenger, Valpo

Really? Snider vs Cathedral for the state championship. Mark it down. 

Concordia losses a ton of seniors

[1st_and_10]

 

21 hours ago, Knightmare said:

John Harrell must not have updated his site otherwise I would have thrown Webo in there.  

Interesting... Webo is on a great run and maybe they will be able to maintain it?  But, I think Webo was fortunate to make it to state and needed a FG to win it. While Chatard, Cathedral, and Roncalli all won by double digits.  And this isn't the first time we've seen those schools do that.  It's not Chatard, Cathedral, or Roncalli's fault that they are that much better than the rest of 3A, 4A, and 5A, but we've NEVER seen a public school do that.

I'm a reasonable guy, and I will not sit here and say these schools recruit.  Because they don't need too.  But, clearly there's something going on here, right?  Why won't those schools push to move up and gain more national exposure?  Those 3 schools are the only schools who could push the Big 4 and potentially win a 6A title from what I've seen over the years.

Fortunate to make it to State?  Webo Dominated everyone in the South of 2A.  HC gave them some problems in the 1st half, but Webo still won by 2 scores.  Yes, they needed a FG to win state, but Webo had the ball 32 of the 48 minutes.