Breaking News: Warsaw and Warren Central sign a 2-year deal to play home and home in 2024 and 2025

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

What top 5 club was Center Grove in for any of their state championships?

Did I mention Center Grove? I don't recall mentioning Bloomington South, Snider, or Castle either. 

[Footballking16]

19 minutes ago, temptation said:

You do realize that four of the teams listed above are probably still top 20-25 programs in the state, correct?  North Central, Pike, HSE and Fishers play BRUTAL schedules and their final W-L record makes them appear worse than they are.

Well duh they're still "good programs" when compared to the other 350 some playing football programs in this state. Not sure that makes it some kind of accomplishment, especially considering they have mega-enrollments and/or very high socioeconomic demographics, the two metrics you claim no program can overcome regardless of how untrue that statement may be. 

 

21 minutes ago, temptation said:

I've already stated that there is no excuse for Noblesville and Lake Central and those programs' lack of success falls at the feet of the coaching staff/athletic department.

So clearly high enrollment and SES aren't the only two metrics impossible to overcome? Glad we got that out of the way

 

24 minutes ago, temptation said:

As for your last question, there is no doubt that the commitment at Warren is higher than it is at Pike, but I will also add in that the westside suburban sprawl from Marion County to Zionsville, Brownsburg and Avon is playing a larger role at Ben Davis and Pike than it is at Warren Central as it would relate to New Pal/Greenfield.  The east side may eventually catch up but right now, the western suburbs are booming and players who would normally be at Pike/Ben Davis are popping up in Hendricks/Boone County.

There's 3500 kids at Pike and 3700 kids at North Central. I don't care who is moving where, that isn't a crutch. Isn't it coincidental that once North Central hired a proven coach and made a commitment to its football program you started to see results? Shocking I know. Nearly happened last time they tried it, Streiff just didn't stick around long enough even though NC was on their way. 

[Major]

Peru vs. Logansport.  Wow that is interesting.

[foxbat]

2 hours ago, Bobref said:

I would phrase it slightly differently, by saying that enrollment, socioeconomic status, coaching, and other factors can confer a significant advantage on those programs able and willing to utilize them. Not everyone is.

This is the issue that I've seen with the arguments so far and also, to a degree also speaks to the issue of correlation and causality.  Just because enrollment CAN have an impact and just because it does for the one outlier school in the state, doesn't mean that it does for everyone in the state nor that it happens on some type of sliding scale such that for every 100 kids you add over your opponent's enrollment your chances of reaching LOS increase by 2%.  Carmel is a singular datapoint and it's hard to determine trend lines with a single datapoint ... much less policy.

Regarding SES, I also think that there's a very non-linear impact that may exist.  I haven't done the detailed analysis, but given that the new rules on FRL allow schools with 40% of more of their students to provide free lunch to ALL students to avoid the need for paperwork collection, it would seem that 40% is a good starting point for considering a school to be in a category of SES impact.  We can certainly argue whether that number should be 35% or 40% or 45% or 31.5%, but again, I'll use 40% ... we can probably mostly agree that it's probably not an item that should be higher than 50%.

In looking at 6A, eight programs have represented the class at LOS in the last decade.  Of those, half of the teams have a FRL percentage of more than 40% ... FW Snider, Warren Central, Ben Davis, and Lawrence Central.  The others represent teams with roughly 20% or less ... Carmel,  Westfield, Center Grove, and Penn.  I then analyzed the results and asked the question, "Did the team with lower FRL percentage beat a team with higher FRL percentage?"  In this analysis, I didn't look at degree or classification of the FRL, just whether it was higher or lower in absolute terms.  In other words, when Westfield and Center Grove play, they are both below 20% FRL and only 3.5% separate them, which really isn't statistically significant in this case, but Westfield is considered a lower FRL program than Center Grove.  The results?  In 10 meetings, four times the team with a lower FRL percentage won while in six of the meetings, the team with the higher FRL percentage won.  I then looked at it in terms of categorization ... that is, teams with 40% or more in the "low-SES" group and those with under 40% in the "high SES" group.  Note that, because of the huge discrepancy in represented teams, the "high SES" group actually ends up being folks with roughly 20% FRL or less vs. all of the other teams with 40% or more ... the "low SES" group ... and this allows for even clearer delineation of the low/high SES argument.  The findings?  In ten matchups:

• A high SES team, one with FRL at 20% or lower, played a low SES team, one with 40% or more FRL, in four of ten matches.  In the other six, the matchup was either two low SES teams playing each other or two high SES teams playing each other.
• In the four matchups where a high SES team played a low SES team, which was four matchups, the low SES team won all four times.
• In general categorization terms, regardless of who played who, teams in the low SES group won five matchups while teams in the high SES won five too.
• Again, as presented earlier, in absolute terms, not looking at categorization, just absolute FRL percentages, the lower FRL percentage team only won against a higher FRL percentage team 40% of the time.  Given the two bulletpoints above as well as this one, it would point to the idea that SES is a driving factor for blue ring success doesn't lie in SES.

 

 

 

[Bobref]

12 minutes ago, foxbat said:

it would point to the idea that SES is a driving factor for blue ring success doesn't lie in SES.

Small sample size, but we work with what we’ve got.

[foxbat]

Just now, Bobref said:

Small sample size, but we work with what we’ve got.

Yeah, I was going to add the caveats of the fact that the teams that make it to LOS represent eight out of a pool of around 32 ... a bit more due to the Success Factor issue.  Also a couple of items in there on the small number side as well including the fact that it's only 6A ... although that seems to be most applicable to the topic teams.

Then again, given that I've seen some "analysis" done with a datapoint of one, policy dictated by an outlier, and argument against policy also done with an outlier, I figured eight was a treasure trove of data.  😀  Like you said though, you work with what the data gods provide.

[Bobref]

Just now, foxbat said:

I figured eight was a treasure trove of data.  😀 

😂🤣😅 It’s all relative. To paraphrase that antihistamine commercial, 8 is better than 1.

[Footballking16]

38 minutes ago, foxbat said:

This is the issue that I've seen with the arguments so far and also, to a degree also speaks to the issue of correlation and causality.  Just because enrollment CAN have an impact and just because it does for the one outlier school in the state, doesn't mean that it does for everyone in the state nor that it happens on some type of sliding scale such that for every 100 kids you add over your opponent's enrollment your chances of reaching LOS increase by 2%.  Carmel is a singular datapoint and it's hard to determine trend lines with a single datapoint ... much less policy.

Regarding SES, I also think that there's a very non-linear impact that may exist.  I haven't done the detailed analysis, but given that the new rules on FRL allow schools with 40% of more of their students to provide free lunch to ALL students to avoid the need for paperwork collection, it would seem that 40% is a good starting point for considering a school to be in a category of SES impact.  We can certainly argue whether that number should be 35% or 40% or 45% or 31.5%, but again, I'll use 40% ... we can probably mostly agree that it's probably not an item that should be higher than 50%.

In looking at 6A, eight programs have represented the class at LOS in the last decade.  Of those, half of the teams have a FRL percentage of more than 40% ... FW Snider, Warren Central, Ben Davis, and Lawrence Central.  The others represent teams with roughly 20% or less ... Carmel,  Westfield, Center Grove, and Penn.  I then analyzed the results and asked the question, "Did the team with lower FRL percentage beat a team with higher FRL percentage?"  In this analysis, I didn't look at degree or classification of the FRL, just whether it was higher or lower in absolute terms.  In other words, when Westfield and Center Grove play, they are both below 20% FRL and only 3.5% separate them, which really isn't statistically significant in this case, but Westfield is considered a lower FRL program than Center Grove.  The results?  In 10 meetings, four times the team with a lower FRL percentage won while in six of the meetings, the team with the higher FRL percentage won.  I then looked at it in terms of categorization ... that is, teams with 40% or more in the "low-SES" group and those with under 40% in the "high SES" group.  Note that, because of the huge discrepancy in represented teams, the "high SES" group actually ends up being folks with roughly 20% FRL or less vs. all of the other teams with 40% or more ... the "low SES" group ... and this allows for even clearer delineation of the low/high SES argument.  The findings?  In ten matchups:

• A high SES team, one with FRL at 20% or lower, played a low SES team, one with 40% or more FRL, in four of ten matches.  In the other six, the matchup was either two low SES teams playing each other or two high SES teams playing each other.
• In the four matchups where a high SES team played a low SES team, which was four matchups, the low SES team won all four times.
• In general categorization terms, regardless of who played who, teams in the low SES group won five matchups while teams in the high SES won five too.
• Again, as presented earlier, in absolute terms, not looking at categorization, just absolute FRL percentages, the lower FRL percentage team only won against a higher FRL percentage team 40% of the time.  Given the two bulletpoints above as well as this one, it would point to the idea that SES is a driving factor for blue ring success doesn't lie in SES.

 

 

 

Good analysis. Appreciate it.

@temptationwill spin this in a way that shows a low SES can be overcome by a mega-enrollment only to sit on his hands and not be able to explain the decades long struggles of North Central, Pike, and Lake Central who have SES similar to Warren and Ben Davis as well enrollment. Rinse, wash, repeat. 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Footballking16

[temptation]

16 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Good analysis. Appreciate it.

@temptationwill spin this in a way that shows a low SES can be overcome by a mega-enrollment only to sit on his hands and not be able to explain the decades long struggles of North Central, Pike, and Lake Central who have SES similar to Warren and Ben Davis as well enrollment. Rinse, wash, repeat. 

 

Wait, did you just say that Lake Central has a similar SES to those other programs mentioned above?

You really are lost.

Mega enrollments can overcome/negate a high FRL population...
 

I never said it was the ONLY deciding factor but these two are far and away the two most important factors.

I wouldn’t expect someone from Cathedral to understand.  

[Guest DT]

1 hour ago, MICFan34 said:

Could it be something intangible, like tradition? Except for a few years under Moyers, Pike has very little to no tradition, while WC is arguably one of the most tradition-rich programs in the Midwest. 

In my view, bantam and pee wee level feeder systems are what separate good programs from great programs.

For decades, CYO Youth Programs were the standard for early player development.  When public schools started developing these youth programs, we began to see select publics emerge as the creme of the crop.  Schools that were consistently in state championship contention but had neither great enrollment advantages or CYO connections developed their own youth feeders as a means to identify and grow taent up to the varsity level.  Schools like Hobart, Sheriden, Jimtown, Griffith, Jasper, New Pal , Columbus East, Brownstown, eastbrook, Pioneer, and Center Grove never had a numbers advantage over anyone, yet all dominated for years with programs driven primarily by great youth development initiatives.  

[Footballking16]

16 minutes ago, temptation said:

Wait, did you just say that Lake Central has a similar SES to those other programs mentioned above?

You really are lost.

I was looking at Lake Station FRL %, my mistake, which is extremely high. Lake Central has an enrollment and SES similar to that of the Hamilton Co HCC schools. They don't have a good football program which furthers my point that enrollment and SES don't mean a thing.

 

18 minutes ago, temptation said:

Mega enrollments can overcome/negate a high FRL population...

Again, has worked out well for Pike and North Central over the years. How is it that 3 schools within a 20 miles radius (North Central/Pike/Warren) with similar enrollments and SES can be be on such opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to football success. Surely has nothing to do with coaching/culture/commitment, right?

 

20 minutes ago, temptation said:

I never said it was the ONLY deciding factor but these two are far and away the two most important factors.

They aren't. I've given you half a dozen examples of why that simply isn't true. You have no rebuttal. Show me a successful program who doesn't have a combination of strong coaching/culture/commitment. Those are the most important factors. Clearly.

 

22 minutes ago, temptation said:

I wouldn’t expect someone from Cathedral to understand.

What does me attending Cathedral over 15 years ago have anything to do with this? I haven't mentioned Cathedral once. 

[Guest DT]

5 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I was looking at Lake Station FRL %, my mistake, which is extremely high. Lake Central has an enrollment and SES similar to that of the Hamilton Co HCC schools. They don't have a good football program which furthers my point that enrollment and SES don't mean a thing.

 

Again, has worked out well for Pike and North Central over the years. How is it that 3 schools within a 20 miles radius (North Central/Pike/Warren) with similar enrollments and SES can be be on such opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to football success. Surely has nothing to do with coaching/culture/commitment, right?

 

They aren't. I've given you half a dozen examples of why that simply isn't true. You have no rebuttal. Show me a successful program who doesn't have a combination of strong coaching/culture/commitment. Those are the most important factors. Clearly.

 

What does me attending Cathedral over 15 years ago have anything to do with this? I haven't mentioned Cathedral once. 

Lake Central had a great football program not too long ago.  They went toe to toe with some of the best Ben Davis teams ever.  

LC football has fallen due primarily to three main reasons :

1. Dysfunctional , poorly coordinated and mismanaged feeder program

2. Below average coaching staffs with higher than average staff turnover

3. Administrative support redirected to other sports including baseball, soccer and girls athletics.

All of these issues can be addressed if LC makes it a priority to do so.  

 

[Footballking16]

18 minutes ago, DT said:

Lake Central had a great football program not too long ago.  They went toe to toe with some of the best Ben Davis teams ever.  

LC football has fallen due primarily to three main reasons :

1. Dysfunctional , poorly coordinated and mismanaged feeder program

2. Below average coaching staffs with higher than average staff turnover

3. Administrative support redirected to other sports including baseball, soccer and girls athletics.

All of these issues can be addressed if LC makes it a priority to do so.  

 

Correct. All three reasons you’ve listed ascribe lack of coaching/culture/commitment to a T. 

[BTF]

1 hour ago, DT said:

Lake Central had a great football program not too long ago.  They went toe to toe with some of the best Ben Davis teams ever.  

LC football has fallen due primarily to three main reasons :

1. Dysfunctional , poorly coordinated and mismanaged feeder program

2. Below average coaching staffs with higher than average staff turnover

3. Administrative support redirected to other sports including baseball, soccer and girls athletics.

All of these issues can be addressed if LC makes it a priority to do so.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

What does me attending Cathedral over 15 years ago have anything to do with this? I haven't mentioned Cathedral once. 

I thought he already explained it. On the surface, Cathedral (1200 students), appears to be this small school that rumbles with the best of the best...........the 6A giants. But they have no boundaries. They have a metropolis of 2 million people to recruit from. So it's easy for someone to from Cathedral to say enrollment doesn't play a VERY large role in the success of a program. That being said, I have no beef with the Irish of Cathedral. Catholic kids just play at a different level for some reason. But the fact that they have no district barriers is why no one wants to hear the opinion of a Catholic regarding strength of enrollment. 

[Footballking16]

16 minutes ago, BTF said:

 

I thought he already explained it. On the surface, Cathedral (1200 students), appears to be this small school that rumbles with the best of the best...........the 6A giants. But they have no boundaries. They have a metropolis of 2 million people to recruit from. So it's easy for someone to from Cathedral to say enrollment doesn't play a VERY large role in the success of a program. That being said, I have no beef with the Irish of Cathedral. Catholic kids just play at a different level for some reason. But the fact that they have no district barriers is why no one wants to hear the opinion of a Catholic regarding strength of enrollment. 

Lol. I grew up in Washington Twp and live in Fishers today, both schools in the same metropolis with 3000+ kids who don’t have good football programs. There’s about 400-450 kids who apply to Cathedral a year from the same metropolis that have the same ability to go to HSE or North Central as they please. Not sure what that comment has to do with anything?

[temptation]

55 minutes ago, BTF said:

 

I thought he already explained it. On the surface, Cathedral (1200 students), appears to be this small school that rumbles with the best of the best...........the 6A giants. But they have no boundaries. They have a metropolis of 2 million people to recruit from. So it's easy for someone to from Cathedral to say enrollment doesn't play a VERY large role in the success of a program. That being said, I have no beef with the Irish of Cathedral. Catholic kids just play at a different level for some reason. But the fact that they have no district barriers is why no one wants to hear the opinion of a Catholic regarding strength of enrollment. 

Don’t forget...ZERO percent F/R/L.

Someone with Cathedral ties speaking about the lack of impact socioeconomics has on an athletic program is akin to LeBron James lecturing folks about racial inequality and human rights...oh wait.

 

[BTF]

30 minutes ago, temptation said:

Don’t forget...ZERO percent F/R/L.

Someone with Cathedral ties speaking about the lack of impact socioeconomics has on an athletic program is akin to LeBron James lecturing folks about racial inequality and human rights...oh wait.

 

I like Bob Knight's quote from 2003. "I would have rather listened to Saddam Hussein speak on civil rights."

[Footballking16]

57 minutes ago, temptation said:

Don’t forget...ZERO percent F/R/L.

Someone with Cathedral ties speaking about the lack of impact socioeconomics has on an athletic program is akin to LeBron James lecturing folks about racial inequality and human rights...oh wait.

 

Lol.

Yet you still can’t explain why 6 of the 10 largest high schools in the state (and 3 of those with <20% FRL) have average to terrible football programs, despite meeting the two metrics (mega-enrollment/SES) that are impossible to overcome. It’s no surprise you continue to dance around and talk in circles, because it doesn’t fit your narrative.

[temptation]

4 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Lol.

Yet you still can’t explain why 6 of the 10 largest high schools in the state (and 3 of those with <20% FRL) have average to terrible football programs, despite meeting the two metrics (mega-enrollment/SES) that are impossible to overcome. It’s no surprise you continue to dance around and talk in circles, because it doesn’t fit your narrative.

Never been a great dancer honestly.

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

Never been a great dancer honestly.

Clearly

[temptation]

9 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Clearly

They offer dance classes as an elective at The University of Cathedral?  

If so, hook me up.

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

They offer dance classes as an elective at The University of Cathedral?  

If so, hook me up.

You’d be better off at North Central. Don’t let the fact that they have a large FRL % fool you, NC has one of the best theater and drama programs in the state. And it’s free!

[DE]

55 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

You’d be better off at North Central. Don’t let the fact that they have a large FRL % fool you, NC has one of the best theater and drama programs in the state. And it’s free!

Nothing in life is free. 😉 

Not even admittance to the Warsaw/WC match up in a few years. 

[temptation]

10 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

You’d be better off at North Central. Don’t let the fact that they have a large FRL % fool you, NC has one of the best theater and drama programs in the state. And it’s free!

Cool.  Thanks for the heads up.  I couldn't afford the tuition at U of C anyway.

[BDGiant93]

15 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Good analysis. Appreciate it.

@temptationwill spin this in a way that shows a low SES can be overcome by a mega-enrollment only to sit on his hands and not be able to explain the decades long struggles of North Central, Pike, and Lake Central who have SES similar to Warren and Ben Davis as well enrollment. Rinse, wash, repeat. 

 

Pike yes. North Central, Lake Central no. They don't have the same SES.