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Cathedral vs Westfield on Friday!


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16 minutes ago, Jon said:

I don't think the numbers support the claim of "should've". Here are some numbers from last years CG vs Cathedral:

Total yards:           Cathedral 180  CG 332
Rushing yards:      Cathedral 54    CG 148
Passing yards:      Cathedral 126   CG 184
Offensive points:  Cathedral 6(1 td)   CG 17 
Int:                         Cathedral 0       CG 1
I will let these numbers speak for themselves. 
 
Now that this is Westfield vs Cathedral thread I will give some numbers that relate to Westfield.
West fields numbers against Center Grove.

Total yards:      293
Rushing yards: 133
Passing yards: 160 
Offensive points:  14
Int: 2

Cathedral with the ball leading 13-10, less than 2 minutes, 4th and half a yard, no TO's for CG. The probability of Center Grove winning at that juncture of the game was very slim. It's a game Cathedral should've won but didn't. Everything had to go right for Center Grove and everything wrong for Cathedral for the outcome to turn the way it did. 

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21 minutes ago, Jon said:

So you are saying this great Cathedral O-line could not come up with a half yard when it counted  

I'm saying Cathedral ran a terrible 4th and a half yard play instead of running it behind their offensive line. Or simply punt.

To win that game Center Grove had to:

a) Stop Cathedral on 4th and half a yard

b) Go 50+ yards with no timeouts with a little over a minute left

c) Not only score, but score a TD

To win that game Cathedral had to:

a) gain half a yard

If you don't understand probability and how it relates to the likelihood of an outcome occurring at a certain juncture of time that's fine, just say you don't understand. Cathedral absolutely should have won that game. They didn't. 

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1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

I'm saying Cathedral ran a terrible 4th and a half yard play instead of running it behind their offensive line. Or simply punt.

To win that game Center Grove had to:

a) Stop Cathedral on 4th and half a yard

b) Go 50+ yards with no timeouts with a little over a minute left

c) Not only score, but score a TD

To win that game Cathedral had to:

a) gain half a yard

If you don't understand probability and how it relates to the likelihood of an outcome occurring at a certain juncture of time that's fine, just say you don't understand. Cathedral absolutely should have won that game. They didn't. 

Interesting view.  I might contend you are oversimplifying the game and basing it down to one play.  As Grover pointed out, had there not been a 70 yd interception return earlier, your comments about the game end don't even come into play.  There were several factors in that game that led to the final outcome...not just the last series of plays and decisions.

Cathedral had difficulty moving the ball during the game.  They had one offensive TD, that occurred from a missed tackle on the sideline.  Cathedral had a total of 183 yds....60 of it rushing.

https://www.maxpreps.com/games/10-16-2020/football-fall-20/cathedral-vs-center-grove.htm?c=bYaraJJVeU25NW4LqacUTQ#tab=box-score&schoolid=

image.png.0e7bcc7eb0dc98f1b37905376d060382.png

At the end of the day, it was a great game.  Kids were not injured (a great thing given its a year end non-conference regular season game, with nothing at stake other than bragging rights) with both teams winning their class state championships.  It was in 2020...as someone else said...its history.

Question...why the tone above? Isn't it ok on a discussion forum for people to have different takes? 

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17 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Interesting view.  I might contend you are oversimplifying the game and basing it down to one play.  As Grover pointed out, had there not been a 70 yd interception return earlier, your comments about the game end don't even come into play.  There were several factors in that game that led to the final outcome...not just the last series of plays and decisions.

Cathedral had difficulty moving the ball during the game.  They had one offensive TD, that occurred from a missed tackle on the sideline.  Cathedral had a total of 183 yds....60 of it rushing.

https://www.maxpreps.com/games/10-16-2020/football-fall-20/cathedral-vs-center-grove.htm?c=bYaraJJVeU25NW4LqacUTQ#tab=box-score&schoolid=

image.png.0e7bcc7eb0dc98f1b37905376d060382.png

At the end of the day, it was a great game.  Kids were not injured (a great thing given its a year end non-conference regular season game, with nothing at stake other than bragging rights) with both teams winning their class state championships.  It was in 2020...as someone else said...its history.

Question...why the tone above? Isn't it ok on a discussion forum for people to have different takes? 

I'm not arguing whether Center Grove dominated the stat sheet or not. That's really irrelevant from the point I'm making. Despite being outgained, Cathedral had the ball, leading, with a half yard to win the game with a little over a minute left. If that scenario occurred 100 times the likelihood of Cathedral winning occurs ~90 times. Absolutely everything had to go right for Center Grove to win that game and everything wrong for Cathedral to lose given what transpired.

You're right it is all history and nothing that happened last year has an effect this year. 

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3 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I'm not arguing whether Center Grove dominated the stat sheet or not. That's really irrelevant from the point I'm making. Despite being outgained, Cathedral had the ball, leading, with a half yard to win the game with a little over a minute left. If that scenario occurred 100 times the likelihood of Cathedral winning occurs ~90 times. Absolutely everything had to go right for Center Grove to win that game and everything wrong for Cathedral to lose given what transpired.

You're right it is all history and nothing that happened last year has an effect this year. 

Thank you for your response.  We will simply agree to disagree about the depth of an entire game being irrelevant to its final outcome.  I am also not sure I agree on that 4th and 1 that CG only had a 10% chance to win the play.  That sounds like pretty subjective probability to me. (but I am no statistician....just enough during college years to be dangerous)

If I follow your logic that its really about one play, bottom line one team got it done and the other didn't....that is as simple as it gets.  

Good luck to the Irish tonight and this season...they continue to have an outstanding team.

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9 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Thank you for your response.  We will simply agree to disagree about the depth of an entire game being irrelevant to its final outcome.  I am also not sure I agree on that 4th and 1 that CG only had a 10% chance to win the play.  That sounds like pretty subjective probability to me. (but I am no statistician....just enough during college years to be dangerous)

I’m not sure how it isn’t irrelevant? Despite being significantly outgained Cathedral still had the ball with the lead and one play to win the game.

I guess what probability would you give then for a team to:

a) get a 4th and 1 stop

b) go 50+ yards with no TO’s

c) not only score but score a TD

all with just over a little minute left to play.

If I would have offered you even money prior to the 4th down play that Center Grove was going to win the game would you have seriously taken that bet?

Edited by Footballking16
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43 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Interesting view.  I might contend you are oversimplifying the game and basing it down to one play.  As Grover pointed out, had there not been a 70 yd interception return earlier, your comments about the game end don't even come into play.  There were several factors in that game that led to the final outcome...not just the last series of plays and decisions.

Cathedral had difficulty moving the ball during the game.  They had one offensive TD, that occurred from a missed tackle on the sideline.  Cathedral had a total of 183 yds....60 of it rushing.

https://www.maxpreps.com/games/10-16-2020/football-fall-20/cathedral-vs-center-grove.htm?c=bYaraJJVeU25NW4LqacUTQ#tab=box-score&schoolid=

image.png.0e7bcc7eb0dc98f1b37905376d060382.png

At the end of the day, it was a great game.  Kids were not injured (a great thing given its a year end non-conference regular season game, with nothing at stake other than bragging rights) with both teams winning their class state championships.  It was in 2020...as someone else said...its history.

Question...why the tone above? Isn't it ok on a discussion forum for people to have different takes? 

I agree 100% that Cathedral struggled to move the ball and score throughout the game. Actually Center Grove struggled to score too. Both teams struggled to score and it was 13-10 with about 1 minute left to go.

From an outside perspective. Cathedral's RB was running very well behind the Offensive Line in that 4th qtr. I believe most of his yards came on Cathedral's last drive. He was at the time the hot player. The gamble was on that 4th and half a yard instead of handing it to him they ran their Jet play. The Jet play had been a good play for Cathedral. To Center Grove's Defensive coaches and players, they were very well prepared for it. They ended up stopping the Irish. That and the CG QB avenged his pick 6 with a terrific drive to score the go ahead TD.

 

In hindsight yes the Irish HC said he wished he could take it back and give the ball to the hot player, but took a gamble with a play they run very well. CG on the other hand was well coached, scouted that play very well, and ultimately came up with the stop. 

It all doesn't matter now the outcome was what it was and the game lived up to being one of the best games in the State last year. Best of luck to both in 2021!

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28 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I’m not sure how it isn’t irrelevant? Despite being significantly outgained Cathedral still had the ball with the lead and one play to win the game.

I guess what probability would you give then for a team to:

a) get a 4th and 1 stop

b) go 50+ yards with no TO’s

c) not only score but score a TD

all with just over a little minute left to play.

If I would have offered you even money prior to the 4th down play that Center Grove was going to win the game would you have seriously taken that bet?

Will the HCTV be televising this game on IHSAATV tonight? Or will it only be on the radio only?

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4 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

Will the HCTV be televising this game on IHSAATV tonight? Or will it only be on the radio only?

I didn’t see it on there yesterday. Thought I saw LC-HSE and Noblesville and whoever their opponent is. Cathedral streamed a few games on their Facebook page last year, not sure if that will be the case this year.

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1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

I’m not sure how it isn’t irrelevant? Despite being significantly outgained Cathedral still had the ball with the lead and one play to win the game.

I guess what probability would you give then for a team to:

a) get a 4th and 1 stop

b) go 50+ yards with no TO’s

c) not only score but score a TD

all with just over a little minute left to play.

If I would have offered you even money prior to the 4th down play that Center Grove was going to win the game would you have seriously taken that bet?

Gotta give you an A for perseverance....

I would have absolutely taken that bet on 4th and 1 when you coach elected not to punt.  No way was Cathedral going to put the ball in the air and CG was sending everyone and the kitchen sink.  With the level of D talent...absolutely would have taken that bet. Now if your coach had punted......that's a different question about odds...

Once the stop was made, momentum completely changed. Cathedral's heads went down and CG was a ball of fire.  It was like a hot knife going through butter.  Not only scored, but left time for Cathedral to get the ball back.

Look, we are hijacking the thread and I don't want to be that guy.  Plus I notice how you argue and it turns into a vicious loop.  No interest in going there.  Let's just agree to disagree on your probability odds, and how everything else in the game was inconsequential to the outcome.  

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17 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I would have absolutely taken that bet on 4th and 1 when you coach elected not to punt.  No way was Cathedral going to put the ball in the air and CG was sending everyone and the kitchen sink.  With the level of D talent...absolutely would have taken that bet. Now if your coach had punted......that's a different question about odds...

Lol taken it for even money??? Obviously it's easy for you to say that in hindsight given the outcome.

Look, if you took that bet in a similar situation on Saturday's or Sunday's where you're allowed to legally bet in a real life setting you'd be down more money than you could count in a hurry. I subscribe to a forum where handicappers give picks and there was an article 2-3 years ago where one of the handicappers had compiled a list of data over a 10-15 year period in both college and NFL on the winning % of teams who possess the ball under two minutes with a one score lead in which the opposing team had zero timeouts. I forget the actual hard # (I'll have to find the article) but it was staggering. It was something like 675-45. Over 90% of the time the team with the ball and the lead won. 

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Cathedral with a 14-0 win tonight to open the season. That defense from Cathedral was extremely good. Picking off Westfield 4 times.. O'Neil from Cathedral throwing for 261 yards.. helluva showing by a Sophmore QB. 

20 hours ago, FBfanatic40 said:

I'm taking Westfield by 2 scores in this one. 

You got the 2 score margin correct... you just picked the wrong team... you actually have to score to win a game.. weird concept, I know 

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4 minutes ago, Olympian06 said:

Cathedral with a 14-0 win tonight to open the season. That defense from Cathedral was extremely good. Picking off Westfield 4 times.. O'Neil from Cathedral throwing for 261 yards.. helluva showing by a Sophmore QB. 

O’Neil looked great. Took him a couple series to get his feet under him but he’s going to be a treat the next 3 years. Offensive line didn’t look very good and that was with Popeye Williams absent from the game.

Cathedral was a train wreck in the red zone in the first half. Dumb penalties, dumb play calling, poor execution, definitely left a few points off the board.

Defense showed out all night. Was on the field a ton in the 2nd half, especially in the 3rd quarter, but turned Westfield away every time forcing key turnovers.

Credit Westfield, they played extremely well. Was down their best defensive player and really controlled the line of scrimmage.

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7 plays inside the Irish 5 yard line to start the 4th quarter. Stonewalled. #11gold is the real deal. Wondering who scores on them. Maybe LaSalle? Maybe CG? 
 

Lots of nerves this game especially in the first half. Couple O'Neill passes that could have been picked were not. Two missed bunnies from our all-world kicker. Delay of game at the 3yard line in Q2. Etc. We'll work out the offense and kicking. 
 

Westfield played their hearts out. Fantastic game. Any game that is 0-0 at half is my kind of football. 

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1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

O’Neil looked great. Took him a couple series to get his feet under him but he’s going to be a treat the next 3 years. Offensive line didn’t look very good and that was with Popeye Williams absent from the game.

Cathedral was a train wreck in the red zone in the first half. Dumb penalties, dumb play calling, poor execution, definitely left a few points off the board.

Defense showed out all night. Was on the field a ton in the 2nd half, especially in the 3rd quarter, but turned Westfield away every time forcing key turnovers.

Credit Westfield, they played extremely well. Was down their best defensive player and really controlled the line of scrimmage.

Westfield also was without QB Maximus Webster for a lot of the second and third quarter, after taking a hit early second quarter. Backup Cole Ballard (Colt's GM's son) threw three of the four pics, the last two when Westfield was knocking on the door to score. Westfield also had a TD taken away via a penalty after Ballard ran it in. The next play he was knocked out with a knee injury, and Webster came back in.

Westfield had no answer for that huge, quick Cathedral defense. They almost totally shut down the run game and were in the QBs face almost all game. Credit Westfield's defense, down their best player, but still held the Irish to 14 poinits, and if not for two very costly Ballard errant throws deep in Irish territory, could have actually won this game.

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