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Are some coaches too conservative in your opinion?


temptation

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A topic I love talking about from the comfort of my home as I watch football every weekend as I am not being paid millions of dollars to make critical decisions, lol.  Do too many coaches remain conservative in 4th and short situations in choosing to punt/kick FGs instead of keeping the offense on the field?

The name of the book is escaping me, but I did some reading on sports analytics/probability a few years back and I believe that the likelihood of a team converting on 4th and 3 or less is nearly 50 percent.  (This is of course open to a lot of differing variables and what level of competition we are talking about.)  If that is the case, why do many coaches (particularly around midfield or on the edge of FG range) choose to take the offense off of the field?

Understandably, certain in-game situations are unique.  But I am a firm believer that "defense wins championships" is the most overused idiom in modern day football.  Offense wins, especially at the college level.  Very rarely are the top dogs who we see in the playoffs annually being held under 30 points.  You need an elite offense and a competent defense.  A defense that holds their opposition to FGs more often than not is a HUGE win in today's game.

Early in many contests, you will hear the phrase "take the points."  While I do understand that and three points is better than zero, you are not going to win many games if you continue to "take the points" as the game progresses.

The latest incident which got me thinking about this topic was the Seahawks/Colts game last Sunday.  The Colts drove the ball down the field on the opening drive with a solid mix of the run and pass.  They converted a couple of critical third downs but otherwise, were moving the ball at will.  Their opening drive took nearly 9 minutes off the clock.  They then were faced with a 4th and goal from the 2 yard line and chose to "take the points."  That would be their last lead of the day as Seattle then took their first possession right down the field and went up 7-3 and never looked back.

Am I over analyzing one drive?  Perhaps.  But that seemed to set the tone.  Even in the event that you do not convert that 4th and 2, you put the other team's offense in a BAD spot and instead of forcing them to go 65-70 yards to score, they have to go 98+.  Possible?  Sure.  Likely?  Probably not.

Thoughts?

Edited by temptation
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Bill Walsh had a belief that he had to get his trick play in before his opponent did, and that if it gained a yard, it was a success. 

I do believe some are too conservative. As a lineman, something like a 4th and 1 at mid field and especially inside your opponent's territory is just time to man up. It's a gut check. I don't mind trying to draw a team offside; but go ahead and go for it. 

 

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While I say that, I would add be smart. One thing that would drive me nuts about McCarthy in Green Bay as far as play calling was that he loves taking deep shots on 3rd and 5 or less. No underneath routes to just get a first down if the deep shot is not there. One season, people were critical of Crosby for missing so many field goals. I thought well damn, let him kick a few under 50 yards McCarthy. So glad he is gone, and really happy he is in Dallas. 

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1 hour ago, Irishman said:

Bill Walsh had a belief that he had to get his trick play in before his opponent did, and that if it gained a yard, it was a success. 

I do believe some are too conservative. As a lineman, something like a 4th and 1 at mid field and especially inside your opponent's territory is just time to man up. It's a gut check. I don't mind trying to draw a team offside; but go ahead and go for it. 

 

I always worry about a team that plays the odds on 4th and 1 with more or same green behind them than in front of them and kicks it away.  Like you said, it's a gut check ... an affirmation of what your team expects itself to be able to do.  Given that our policy wasn't punting except in extreme situations, it was baked into practices and the team's mindset that we were going to live and die by what the front line could do when called on ... including not jumping on two.

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1 hour ago, temptation said:

Counterpoint, when a team lines up in the shotgun/pistol on 4th and short, I cringe.

No disagreement...whether under center and blasting it up the middle into the teeth of the D with 9 defenders coming hard or in a shotgun and doing something similar, it plays into the strength of the D.  Now, if its a game in which the O line has been dominating the D line, that's a different story.  But it seems with the Colts, IU, etc, there seems to be guts to go for it on 4th down, but very little creativity when it comes down to the play itself

 

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