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Enrollment Numbers Updated


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17 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Will be interesting

Along with Danville and Tri-West, I'd toss West Lafayette into that mix.  WL has been at the top of that 3A pile for a long time ... just teetering on tipping to 4A.  At one time, I believe that WL used to be a closed-district, but talk on the street is that they may be lifting that closed-district restriction.  If that's the case, they were only a couple dozen off from 4A back in the 2019-2020 classification, and with the growth in the county just to the north, a couple of dozen can't be too far away.

I would say Danville is now or in 2 years.  TW has at least 4 years.  

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1 hour ago, 1st_and_10 said:

I am almost 100% certain it will be reclassified this year.  Sectionals realigned with enrollment and success factors.  It's either a 1 year cycle or a 3 year cycle.  It would be nice if the IHSAA would clarify all of this.  Clearly we all have differing opinions of how we interpret what they put out last March/April.  There is a thread somewhere discussing this very thing. 

You are praying WeBo moves back down to 2A.  

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2 minutes ago, superjay said:

I would say Danville is now or in 2 years.  TW has at least 4 years.  

I think WL will beat Tri-West to 4A and may also be moving with Danville.

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12 minutes ago, superjay said:

You are praying WeBo moves back down to 2A.  

Not at all.  I just believe that this is a 1 year cycle and they reset the sectionals this year.  I am giving my opinion on what I think will happen, not "praying" for anything.  

17 minutes ago, superjay said:

I would say Danville is now or in 2 years.  TW has at least 4 years.  

This we agree on.  

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All this talk of moving up.  I will be Mr. Negative.  Who is moving down?  I would assume rural schools, or those communities on an island without much surrounding growth?

Over the last few classifications we have seen Owen Valley and Martinsville drop in the southern half of the state.  I think Crawford County was 3A but has dropped to 2A as well.  Will the EIAC "big school" division be mostly 3A schools now? 

Without much knowledge of individual communities, just speculation, but maybe South Dearborn, Madison, Pike Central, Brownstown and Sullivan drop?   

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20 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

All this talk of moving up.  I will be Mr. Negative.  Who is moving down?  I would assume rural schools, or those communities on an island without much surrounding growth?

Over the last few classifications we have seen Owen Valley and Martinsville drop in the southern half of the state.  I think Crawford County was 3A but has dropped to 2A as well.  Will the EIAC "big school" division be mostly 3A schools now? 

Without much knowledge of individual communities, just speculation, but maybe South Dearborn, Madison, Pike Central, Brownstown and Sullivan drop?   

I was thinking last year that Brownstown, Forest Park, Providence, Clarksville were all candidates to move down. Southridge too possibly. Pike Central was firmly in the middle of 3A I believe.

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18 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

All this talk of moving up.  I will be Mr. Negative.  Who is moving down?  I would assume rural schools, or those communities on an island without much surrounding growth?

Over the last few classifications we have seen Owen Valley and Martinsville drop in the southern half of the state.  I think Crawford County was 3A but has dropped to 2A as well.  Will the EIAC "big school" division be mostly 3A schools now? 

Without much knowledge of individual communities, just speculation, but maybe South Dearborn, Madison, Pike Central, Brownstown and Sullivan drop?   

South Dearborn will for sure be dropping down to 3A, leaves only two 4A schools in the conference (East Central & Connersville), with some expected shake ups on who is "Big School" and "Little School".

Biggest question with the EIAC is how far Franklin County will drop. If not in 2022-23 they may very well be 2A by 2024-25.

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7 minutes ago, Old Man High Pants said:

South Dearborn will for sure be dropping down to 3A, leaves only two 4A schools in the conference (East Central & Connersville), with some expected shake ups on who is "Big School" and "Little School".

Biggest question with the EIAC is how far Franklin County will drop. If not in 2022-23 they may very well be 2A by 2024-25.

What’s happening at Franklin County….or do I even want to know?

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2 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

All this talk of moving up.  I will be Mr. Negative.  Who is moving down?  I would assume rural schools, or those communities on an island without much surrounding growth?

Over the last few classifications we have seen Owen Valley and Martinsville drop in the southern half of the state.  I think Crawford County was 3A but has dropped to 2A as well.  Will the EIAC "big school" division be mostly 3A schools now? 

Without much knowledge of individual communities, just speculation, but maybe South Dearborn, Madison, Pike Central, Brownstown and Sullivan drop?   

I know that Benton Central had yo-yo'd a couple of cycles from 3A down to 2A and are now back up to 3A.  I think their freshman/sophomore classes back in 2019-2020 classification were larger than their junior/senior class, so I'm assuming that they are going to be staying up in 3A.  I'm wondering though about whether Seeger will be dropping back down to 1A.  I think there was some talk about that possibly happening right around the time that COVID started up.  Don't know if anyone has any details on those areas.

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2 hours ago, Lysander said:

What’s happening at Franklin County….or do I even want to know?

A few work friends of mine graduated from there had told me a lot of the Millennial generation left and didn't come back. They live in Cincinnati, Harrison & Lawrenceburg now and have no desire to move back. 

Unfortunately they had to let go multiple certified and uncertified positions at the end of last year because of lack of student funding.

Multiple rumors about the future of the district now which include Franklin County staying in tact and falling to 2A, outlying areas like Laurel and Mt. Carmel being consolidated into other districts, or all of Franklin County being consolidated.

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3 hours ago, Old Man High Pants said:

South Dearborn will for sure be dropping down to 3A, leaves only two 4A schools in the conference (East Central & Connersville), with some expected shake ups on who is "Big School" and "Little School".

Biggest question with the EIAC is how far Franklin County will drop. If not in 2022-23 they may very well be 2A by 2024-25.

Franklin County (732) had more students than South Dearborn (723) in 2020-21.  Both would have been in the top 20 largest 3A schools and still about 200 more than the largest 2A.

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7 minutes ago, HoopsCoach said:

Franklin County (732) had more students than South Dearborn (723) in 2020-21.  Both would have been in the top 20 largest 3A schools and still about 200 more than the largest 2A.

Believe Franklin County's big issue area is below the high school level. Enrollment has been declining for years there, they consolidated their middle schools four or five years ago. The layoffs happened at the elementary level. While they still are a few hundred away from 2A it's not impossible for it to happen soon.

https://wrbiradio.com/2021/05/17/five-teacher-contracts-canceled-by-franklin-county-school-board/?epik=1638301537990

Could be wrong. That's just what I'm hearing.

South Dearborn could possibly be leveling out. The Dearborn County Country Club shut down from COVID and there has been talk of them building a subdivision on the land. Though I don't think South Dearborn would want to get back to 4A, they'll have a good chance of winning their first ever sectional by being in 3A.

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1 hour ago, Old Man High Pants said:

Believe Franklin County's big issue area is below the high school level. Enrollment has been declining for years there, they consolidated their middle schools four or five years ago. The layoffs happened at the elementary level. While they still are a few hundred away from 2A it's not impossible for it to happen soon.

https://wrbiradio.com/2021/05/17/five-teacher-contracts-canceled-by-franklin-county-school-board/?epik=1638301537990

Could be wrong. That's just what I'm hearing.

South Dearborn could possibly be leveling out. The Dearborn County Country Club shut down from COVID and there has been talk of them building a subdivision on the land. Though I don't think South Dearborn would want to get back to 4A, they'll have a good chance of winning their first ever sectional by being in 3A.

You’re right about Franklin County and their enrollment trend.  They have lost roughly 200 students at the high school level over the last 10 years.  They went from around 950 students in 2010 to 750 in 2020.  It has fallen around 20-40 students per year during that time so they could be headed towards 2A three or four alignment cycles from now.  Certainly could be sooner if their enrollment drop is greater at the younger levels right now.

SD would probably be in a 3A sectional with county rival Lawrenceburg.

Edited by HoopsCoach
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4 hours ago, Old Man High Pants said:

Multiple rumors about the future of the district now which include Franklin County staying in tact and falling to 2A, outlying areas like Laurel and Mt. Carmel being consolidated into other districts, or all of Franklin County being consolidated.

I thought the entirety of Franklin County was already consolidated as of the mid-80s.  Just what other existing districts could Laurel and/or Mt. Carmel opt for?  In the case of Laurel, the closest existing school District (I believe) is Connersville - which is in Fayette County.

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10 hours ago, Lysander said:

Noticed that and wondered if that should be enough to put them in 4A.  I also heard commentary at various places over the last few weeks as to whether Gibson Southern and Tri-West might be headed toward 4A enrollments - if not this upcoming period then in the near future.

Does anyone know whether this might be the case?

 

9 hours ago, foxbat said:

Will be interesting

Along with Danville and Tri-West, I'd toss West Lafayette into that mix.  WL has been at the top of that 3A pile for a long time ... just teetering on tipping to 4A.  At one time, I believe that WL used to be a closed-district, but talk on the street is that they may be lifting that closed-district restriction.  If that's the case, they were only a couple dozen off from 4A back in the 2019-2020 classification, and with the growth in the county just to the north, a couple of dozen can't be too far away.

West Lafayette - 743

Danville - 739

Gibson Southern - 728

Tri-West - 578

In recent years the 3A/4A cutoff has fallen right around 800.  If reclassification would have happened for this year, Brebeuf would have been 4A with an enrollment of 816.

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1 hour ago, HoopsCoach said:

 

West Lafayette - 743

Danville - 739

Gibson Southern - 728

Tri-West - 578

In recent years the 3A/4A cutoff has fallen right around 800.  If reclassification would have happened for this year, Brebeuf would have been 4A with an enrollment of 816.

Of interest is that three of those four schools have gotten smaller compared to their 2019-2020; with GS being the exception and increasing a couple of dozen.  I'm surprised that WL numbers are down; especially given the growth on that side of the Wabash.

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58 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Of interest is that three of those four schools have gotten smaller compared to their 2019-2020; with GS being the exception and increasing a couple of dozen.  I'm surprised that WL numbers are down; especially given the growth on that side of the Wabash.

The WL district is basically landlocked, and without taking students from out of the district, their enrollment growth will be pretty gradual.  It was about 650 in the early 2000s and has grown to roughly 750 in 20 years.  Over that same period of time, Harrison has gone from 1500 to 2100.  The demographics of WL resemble those of Central Catholic and I think they are happy with that.

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13 hours ago, Lysander said:

I thought the entirety of Franklin County was already consolidated as of the mid-80s.  Just what other existing districts could Laurel and/or Mt. Carmel opt for?  In the case of Laurel, the closest existing school District (I believe) is Connersville - which is in Fayette County.

Yeah sorry should have clarified better. The talk was the existing Franklin County school district would be split up and consolidated into other schools. Laurel would become a part of Fayette County (Connersville), Mt Carmel Union County, there was even talk of Brookville consolidating into Sunman Dearborn (East Central). Right now it's all just hearsay but my dad always told me there's the slightest bit of truth in everything you hear so who knows?

15 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

You’re right about Franklin County and their enrollment trend.  They have lost roughly 200 students at the high school level over the last 10 years.  They went from around 950 students in 2010 to 750 in 2020.  It has fallen around 20-40 students per year during that time so they could be headed towards 2A three or four alignment cycles from now.  Certainly could be sooner if their enrollment drop is greater at the younger levels right now.

SD would probably be in a 3A sectional with county rival Lawrenceburg.

This next cycle I would think the entire 3A EIAC will be in the same sectional. You have Rushville, Greensburg, Batesville, Franklin County, Lawrenceburg and South Dearborn. Add in a team or two from either Indianapolis of Louisville area depending on which way the IHSAA sends them.

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d. If a school which has participated in a higher enrollment class during the previous reclassification period achieves a tournament series success point value of Two (2), Three (3), Four (4) or Five (5) points in a specific sport, such school shall remain in the same enrollment class in that sport for the next reclassification period. The foregoing notwithstanding, if there is a change in the school’s enrollment which would result in the school being placed in a higher enrollment class than the enrollment class dictated by this section, then in that circumstance the school shall be placed in the enrollment class determined by the school’s enrollment for the next reclassification period.

 

I’m not sure if I read this correctly, but if success factor is calculated using this year and last year.  Both Chatard and WeBo will stay up for the next reclassification because both have 4 points.

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On 11/29/2021 at 7:35 PM, HoopsCoach said:

This is probably true.

From the 2020 fall count day, here were the bottom 10 of 6A (with 32 schools) and the top 10 of 5A.  The numbers are close enough, especially among the schools that had 2000-2100, that there could be some shuffling if realignment actually happens.

23 Portage 2301
24 Lawrence Central 2268
25 Zionsville 2151
26 Jeffersonville 2134
27 Columbus North 2090
28 Indianapolis Arsenal Tech 2089
29 Chesterton 2081
30 Lafayette Jefferson 2066
31 Warsaw 2059
32 Harrison (West Lafayette) 2050

 

1 Fort Wayne Northrop 2046
2 Valparaiso 2035
3 Merrillville 2022
4 Whiteland 2007
5 Goshen 1973
6 South Bend Adams 1949
7 Castle 1884
8 Floyd Central 1867
9 New Albany 1859
10 Fort Wayne Snider 1830

warsaw is 2159

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On 11/30/2021 at 10:29 AM, Old Man High Pants said:

A few work friends of mine graduated from there had told me a lot of the Millennial generation left and didn't come back. They live in Cincinnati, Harrison & Lawrenceburg now and have no desire to move back. 

I'm not trying to be rude, but what's there to do for work in Franklin County?

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4 hours ago, DanteEstonia said:

I'm not trying to be rude, but what's there to do for work in Franklin County?

Nothing, Have to drive somewhere else to work. The school corporation I'm guessing is the biggest employer 

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