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Do Cincinnati/Michigan Have a Shot?


temptation

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I do think Michigan can beat Georgia.....I was not impressed with Bennett against the Bama defense. I think the Michigan defense will dominate. If they can pull it off, they are back in Indy; close to home; a slight advantage having just played in that building. Cincy's offense might be able to move the ball, but I do not think they have the defense to stop Bama. 

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16 hours ago, Irishman said:

I do think Michigan can beat Georgia.....I was not impressed with Bennett against the Bama defense. I think the Michigan defense will dominate. If they can pull it off, they are back in Indy; close to home; a slight advantage having just played in that building. Cincy's offense might be able to move the ball, but I do not think they have the defense to stop Bama. 

Wow. Are you basing this on Georgia's one performance against 'Bama?  I think UM can be in this game, but domination by the defense is a reach.

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I dunno.  With the exception of sometimes Ohio State every time I watch a B10 team play an SEC team in a big bowl game the B10 players look to just be 1-3 steps slower across the board than their SEC counterparts.  And that makes all the difference in the world.

 

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1 hour ago, Staxawax said:

Wow. Are you basing this on Georgia's one performance against 'Bama?  I think UM can be in this game, but domination by the defense is a reach.

While Bama exposed him more than others, I have seen them play a few times and have not been impressed with the Georgia offense as a whole. 

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Cincinnati's been surprising us all season long. First it was the road win at Notre Dame. Then it was the pasting of SMU, East Carolina, and Houston after we all left them for dead when they beat lowly Tulsa by 8 points and Navy by 7. Alabama is just plain hot and cold this year. Florida, Texas A&M, and Auburn all proved that the Tide are vulnerable this year. Let's face it, Bama is lucky to even be here. Of course Cincy has a shot. But as Temp said in an different thread, I wouldn't bet against Saban and his roster of 40 five star athletes. 

Unfortunately for Michigan, they will be going up against a pissed off Georgia team. My money is with the Bulldogs. That being said, Michigan has a chance to win this game. They've been pretty consistent all season long and beat the team that I said was better than Alabama. So why can't they beat the team that got waxed by the team that I said was inferior to the team that the Wolverines beat? I'll be rooting for the Blue in this one. 

No offense to Cincinnati and Notre Dame, but how cool would it have been to see Michigan and Ohio State stack up with Georgia and Alabama. Although I'm not convinced that the Buckeyes could beat the Irish or Bearcats on a neutral field, I do think their offense would give the SEC teams fits. In other words, Ohio State matches up better against Bama and Georgia than Cincinnati does. Oh well, just a thought.  

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

Cincinnati's been surprising us all season long. First it was the road win at Notre Dame. Then it was the pasting of SMU, East Carolina, and Houston after we all left them for dead when they beat lowly Tulsa by 8 points and Navy by 7. Alabama is just plain hot and cold this year. Florida, Texas A&M, and Auburn all proved that the Tide are vulnerable this year. Let's face it, Bama is lucky to even be here. Of course Cincy has a shot. But as Temp said in an different thread, I wouldn't bet against Saban and his roster of 40 five star athletes. 

Unfortunately for Michigan, they will be going up against a pissed off Georgia team. My money is with the Bulldogs. That being said, Michigan has a chance to win this game. They've been pretty consistent all season long and beat the team that I said was better than Alabama. So why can't they beat the team that got waxed by the team that I said was inferior to the team that the Wolverines beat? I'll be rooting for the Blue in this one. 

No offense to Cincinnati and Notre Dame, but how cool would it have been to see Michigan and Ohio State stack up with Georgia and Alabama. Although I'm not convinced that the Buckeyes could beat the Irish or Bearcats on a neutral field, I do think their offense would give the SEC teams fits. In other words, Ohio State matches up better against Bama and Georgia than Cincinnati does. Oh well, just a thought.  


So much to unpack here…

1.  No one left Cincinnati for dead.  They went through the motions and played down to their competition.  They got everyone’s best shot.  People overreact too much in college football on a week to week basis.  Too many analysts speak in absolutes based on the most recent contest without looking at the big picture.

2.  Saban calls the media out repeatedly for their “rat poison.”  Usually he uses it to keep his players grounded after everyone in the media tells them how great they are.  He went on record as stating the opposite was true when no one said they had a shot against Georgia.  Bama plays their best football when it matters.

3.  Admittedly I am a homer but if it takes you getting your ass kicked for you to be “pissed off” then you don’t belong in the playoff.  Michigan, even though I’m not a huge believer in this type of stuff, is really starting to believe in themselves and will use the same tactic Saban is above to motivate themselves all month.  Due to what @Muda69 said above, and there is some truth to it, Michigan will hear all month how they do not have a shot.  Hell, they are the #2 seed and are a touchdown underdog!  Am I saying they will win?  No.  But it’ll be close in my opinion.

4.  I think November 27 was the perfect storm for Ohio State to lose.  They are still one of the top three most talented teams in the country and will have a dozen guys drafted in April.  Michigan was motivated and used some of those same tactics I mentioned above.  Notre Dame and Cincinnati would get blown out against the Buckeyes, especially if Hamilton is not 100%.

Edited by temptation
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2 hours ago, Irishman said:

While Bama exposed him more than others, I have seen them play a few times and have not been impressed with the Georgia offense as a whole. 

I agree Irish....SEC East was down this year.  What was Georgia's biggest win?  Kentucky?  Auburn?  When one studies their schedule, it doesn't really impress.  Their opening win against a really down Clemson was a 10-3 score.  I know I am alone on an island, but I thought Georgia deserved the #4 seed and while not sexy for viewers, should have had to prove themselves against Bama again for that really bad game.

I am torn on Cincy...I want them to compete well against Bama.  But I was at the Cincy/IU game.  IU led at the half and was in that game until the end.  This was after multiple turnovers, getting stopped on 4th down giving up an easy FG for 3, and losing Micah McFadden (their best player) in the first half when leading 14-0.  If Cincy plays the way they did in the IU game, they are in for a long day against Bama.

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48 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I agree Irish....SEC East was down this year.  What was Georgia's biggest win?  Kentucky?  Auburn?  When one studies their schedule, it doesn't really impress.  Their opening win against a really down Clemson was a 10-3 score.  I know I am alone on an island, but I thought Georgia deserved the #4 seed and while not sexy for viewers, should have had to prove themselves against Bama again for that really bad game.

I am torn on Cincy...I want them to compete well against Bama.  But I was at the Cincy/IU game.  IU led at the half and was in that game until the end.  This was after multiple turnovers, getting stopped on 4th down giving up an easy FG for 3, and losing Micah McFadden (their best player) in the first half when leading 14-0.  If Cincy plays the way they did in the IU game, they are in for a long day against Bama.

One could argue CINCINNATI has a more impressive win on their resume than UGA, no?

Now, do I think the Bearcats would have run the table with Georgia’s schedule?  No.

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2 minutes ago, temptation said:

One could argue CINCINNATI has a more impressive win on their resume than UGA, no?

Now, do I think the Bearcats would have run the table with Georgia’s schedule?  No.

1. correct

2. mmmmmmmmmmaaaaaayyyyyyybe....who beats them? 

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3 hours ago, temptation said:


So much to unpack here…

1.  No one left Cincinnati for dead.  They went through the motions and played down to their competition.  They got everyone’s best shot.  People overreact too much in college football on a week to week basis.  Too many analysts speak in absolutes based on the most recent contest without looking at the big picture.

2.  Saban calls the media out repeatedly for their “rat poison.”  Usually he uses it to keep his players grounded after everyone in the media tells them how great they are.  He went on record as stating the opposite was true when no one said they had a shot against Georgia.  Bama plays their best football when it matters.

3.  Admittedly I am a homer but if it takes you getting your ass kicked for you to be “pissed off” then you don’t belong in the playoff.  Michigan, even though I’m not a huge believer in this type of stuff, is really starting to believe in themselves and will use the same tactic Saban is above to motivate themselves all month.  Due to what @Muda69 said above, and there is some truth to it, Michigan will hear all month how they do not have a shot.  Hell, they are the #2 seed and are a touchdown underdog!  Am I saying they will win?  No.  But it’ll be close in my opinion.

4.  I think November 27 was the perfect storm for Ohio State to lose.  They are still one of the top three most talented teams in the country and will have a dozen guys drafted in April.  Michigan was motivated and used some of those same tactics I mentioned above.  Notre Dame and Cincinnati would get blown out against the Buckeyes, especially if Hamilton is not 100%.

1.  Cincinnati had a three week run where they didn't even look like a Top 25 team. Show me your receipt that tells us you weren't a bit skeptical at that point. 

2.  Saban does his best Bob Knight impersonation and fails miserably. The only one who can pull it off is Mike Leach, and that's because he's genuine. Saban looks like a complete idiot when he gets in front of the media. He wins football games though. In the end, that's what matters. I'll give him that much. 

3.  Georgia doesn't belong in the playoff now? Every team could use a wake up call now and then.

4.  Ohio State lost to Oregon at home, lost to Michigan by two touchdowns, barely beat Penn State and Nebraska, but would blow out Notre Dame? Now I've heard it all. I'm not sure the Buckeyes could beat the Irish with Hamilton on the bench. 

Edited by BTF
Grammer - GID is a rough crew when it comes to that
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1 hour ago, BTF said:

1.  Cincinnati had a three week run where they didn't even look like a Top 25 team. Show me your receipt that tells us you weren't a bit skeptical at that point. 

2.  Saban does his best Bob Knight impersonation and fails miserably. The only one who can pull it off is Mike Leach, and that's because he's genuine. Saban looks like a complete idiot when he gets in front of the media. He wins football games though. In the end, that's what matters. I'll give him that much. 

3.  Georgia doesn't belong in the playoff now? Every team could use a wake up call now and then.

4.  Ohio State lost to Oregon at home, lost to Michigan by two touchdowns, barely beat Penn State and Nebraska, but would blow out Notre Dame? Now I've heard it all. I'm not sure the Buckeyes could beat the Irish with Hamilton on the bench. 

1.  Skepticism is nowhere near being “left for dead.”

2.  I dislike Saban as much as anyone but he is a master motivator/salesman.

3.  You took my words out of context.  Georgia belongs in but if they need to be motivated for a playoff game by a loss then they’ve already lost.

4.  Catching Ohio State early in the season or catching a motivated rival in a weather environment that is not conducive to an explosive offense played huge roles in both of Ohio State’s losses this year.  ND has a shot in 2022 but would get rolled by an OSU team with something to play for this year.

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14 hours ago, BTF said:

4.  Ohio State lost to Oregon at home, lost to Michigan by two touchdowns, barely beat Penn State and Nebraska, but would blow out Notre Dame? Now I've heard it all. I'm not sure the Buckeyes could beat the Irish with Hamilton on the bench. 

Who exactly did Notre Dame beat this year? They play a limited ACC schedule yet somehow avoided the two best ACC teams and lost (at home) to their one worthy opponent. Is 8-4 Wisconsin their best win?

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3 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Who exactly did Notre Dame beat this year? They play a limited ACC schedule yet somehow avoided the two best ACC teams and lost (at home) to their one worthy opponent. Is 8-4 Wisconsin their best win?

Let's talk about it after Notre Dame beats Oklahoma State. Wait, no one will want to talk about that. Just like a couple of years ago how everyone was talking about how good Iowa State was. Then Notre Dame beat them by a wider margin than anyone else on their schedule. All of a sudden, Iowa State wasn't that great of a team. 

This year it's all about Oklahoma State. How they were 6" away from making the playoffs..............well, not really. Just a couple of clowns on ESPN stating that they would have jumped Cincinnati. After Notre Dame takes care of business against them, and they will, all of a sudden the talk will be about how they really weren't that good after all and that the Big 12 was overrated. It won't have anything to do with Notre Dame being a pretty damn good football team. 

It's not like Notre Dame's schedule was weak or something. It was rated 41st by Sagarin. Speaking of Sagarin, he takes a lot of things into count when coming up with his ranking. All being said, he has Ohio State beating ND by 4pts............hardly a blowout. I think the committee looked at Notre Dame's consistency and how they took care of business all season long against teams they were suppose to beat. Purdue turned out to be a good win. Wisconsin was a good win. Their loss against the Bearcats came when they didn't even know who their QB was and the offensive line was still trying to figure things out. I think it really comes down to the eye test. Should beating Georgia Tech by a wider margin than Georgia did be considered? Maybe, maybe not. But there's a lot of folks out there that think the Irish are pretty darn good this year. 

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20 minutes ago, BTF said:

Let's talk about it after Notre Dame beats Oklahoma State. Wait, no one will want to talk about that. Just like a couple of years ago how everyone was talking about how good Iowa State was. Then Notre Dame beat them by a wider margin than anyone else on their schedule. All of a sudden, Iowa State wasn't that great of a team. 

This year it's all about Oklahoma State. How they were 6" away from making the playoffs..............well, not really. Just a couple of clowns on ESPN stating that they would have jumped Cincinnati. After Notre Dame takes care of business against them, and they will, all of a sudden the talk will be about how they really weren't that good after all and that the Big 12 was overrated. It won't have anything to do with Notre Dame being a pretty damn good football team. 

It's not like Notre Dame's schedule was weak or something. It was rated 41st by Sagarin. Speaking of Sagarin, he takes a lot of things into count when coming up with his ranking. All being said, he has Ohio State beating ND by 4pts............hardly a blowout. I think the committee looked at Notre Dame's consistency and how they took care of business all season long against teams they were suppose to beat. Purdue turned out to be a good win. Wisconsin was a good win. Their loss against the Bearcats came when they didn't even know who their QB was and the offensive line was still trying to figure things out. I think it really comes down to the eye test. Should beating Georgia Tech by a wider margin than Georgia did be considered? Maybe, maybe not. But there's a lot of folks out there that think the Irish are pretty darn good this year. 

What a rant lol.

I'm genuinely asking who Notre Dame beat this year? Not sure what that has to do with Oklahoma State or Iowa State three years ago or whoever else you decided to throw in there. Notre Dame beat probably the worst Wisconsin team the Badgers have put on the field in a decade and struggled to beat an ok Purdue team, a team Ohio State hung nearly half a hundred on.....in the first half. 

But to answer the linger question, yes I do think Ohio State would beat Notre Dame convincingly this year, with or without Kyle Hamilton. 

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16 hours ago, temptation said:

1.  Skepticism is nowhere near being “left for dead.”

2.  I dislike Saban as much as anyone but he is a master motivator/salesman.

3.  You took my words out of context.  Georgia belongs in but if they need to be motivated for a playoff game by a loss then they’ve already lost.

4.  Catching Ohio State early in the season or catching a motivated rival in a weather environment that is not conducive to an explosive offense played huge roles in both of Ohio State’s losses this year.  ND has a shot in 2022 but would get rolled by an OSU team with something to play for this year.

1.  I'll give you that.

2.  That one too. But I still think there are a handful of coaches out there who could do the same thing if they had his talent. 

3.  I guess we'll find out. I think they beat Bama in Round 2...........if there is a Round 2.

4.  Why is Ohio State the only team in the country who might be a bit rusty early in the season? If you wanna say Ohio State would beat Notre Dame this, that's fine, I can live with that. But "rolled"? Nah. IF Ohio State did beat ND this year, it wouldn't be by more than 10 points. Notre Dame's not Michigan State. 

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5 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

What a rant lol.

I'm genuinely asking who Notre Dame beat this year? Not sure what that has to do with Oklahoma State or Iowa State three years ago or whoever else you decided to throw in there. Notre Dame beat probably the worst Wisconsin team the Badgers have put on the field in a decade and struggled to beat an ok Purdue team, a team Ohio State hung nearly half a hundred on.....in the first half. 

But to answer the linger question, yes I do think Ohio State would beat Notre Dame convincingly this year, with or without Kyle Hamilton. 

After Notre Dame beats Oklahoma State by 14 and Ohio State beats Utah by 14, you'll still come on here and say that the Buckeyes would beat Notre Dame convincingly. The Committee, the AP, and Sagarin all disagree with you. It's no secret that you don't like the Irish. 

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32 minutes ago, BTF said:

After Notre Dame beats Oklahoma State by 14 and Ohio State beats Utah by 14, you'll still come on here and say that the Buckeyes would beat Notre Dame convincingly. The Committee, the AP, and Sagarin all disagree with you. It's no secret that you don't like the Irish. 

I dislike Ohio State a lot more than I dislike the Irish. Don't kid yourself here. There's no secret agenda to push here. 

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

After Notre Dame beats Oklahoma State by 14 and Ohio State beats Utah by 14, you'll still come on here and say that the Buckeyes would beat Notre Dame convincingly. The Committee, the AP, and Sagarin all disagree with you. It's no secret that you don't like the Irish. 

I think I like Utah in that Rose Bowl matchup honestly.  They will treat that thing like their Super Bowl and I'd be shocked if the Buckeyes don't have a few opt outs.

Michigan has been notorious for letting Ohio State beat them twice at the end of the year over the last two decades and it usually manifests itself into a bowl loss due to lack of interest and motivation.  No doubt the Buckeyes are the superior team but when looking at these bowl matchups, interest and motivation is tough to measure but can not be ignored.

As for the original question/topic.  

As of this moment (I can change my mind over the next three weeks), I give Cincinnati a 15% chance and Michigan a 45% shot.

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