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Do Cincinnati/Michigan Have a Shot?


temptation

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58 minutes ago, temptation said:

I think I like Utah in that Rose Bowl matchup honestly.  They will treat that thing like their Super Bowl and I'd be shocked if the Buckeyes don't have a few opt outs.

Michigan has been notorious for letting Ohio State beat them twice at the end of the year over the last two decades and it usually manifests itself into a bowl loss due to lack of interest and motivation.  No doubt the Buckeyes are the superior team but when looking at these bowl matchups, interest and motivation is tough to measure but can not be ignored.

As for the original question/topic.  

As of this moment (I can change my mind over the next three weeks), I give Cincinnati a 15% chance and Michigan a 45% shot.

I'll roll with 30% for Cincy. They'll be motivated. People have been doubting them all year. Alabama will underestimate them and won't know what hit them until it's possibly too late. 

I've got Michigan at 35%. I think they are pretty good and wanted to give them more, but Georgia will be on a mission. The Bulldogs feel that this is their year and want another crack at Alabama............but that could be an undoing of it's own. 

I'll take Ohio State by 14+ in the Rose Bowl. The west just doesn't pose much of a threat anymore. 

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3 hours ago, BTF said:

I'll roll with 30% for Cincy. They'll be motivated. People have been doubting them all year. Alabama will underestimate them and won't know what hit them until it's possibly too late. 

I've got Michigan at 35%. I think they are pretty good and wanted to give them more, but Georgia will be on a mission. The Bulldogs feel that this is their year and want another crack at Alabama............but that could be an undoing of it's own. 

I'll take Ohio State by 14+ in the Rose Bowl. The west just doesn't pose much of a threat anymore. 

Why so confident in Georgia?  Who’d they beat?  

Kentucky is their best win and they were elevated to an elite pedestal for holding what turned out to be an overrated Clemson squad to 3 points.

Look, I’m not saying Michigan will win as the Big Ten’s performance in the playoff is well stated but I give the Wolverines one hell of a shot.

 

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10 hours ago, temptation said:

Why so confident in Georgia?  Who’d they beat?  

Kentucky is their best win and they were elevated to an elite pedestal for holding what turned out to be an overrated Clemson squad to 3 points.

Look, I’m not saying Michigan will win as the Big Ten’s performance in the playoff is well stated but I give the Wolverines one hell of a shot.

 

After Notre Dame, I root for Indiana and Purdue. Then I pull for our midwestern neighbors. I'm with you on this. I want Michigan to win badly for the Big Ten. They have as good of a shot as anyone in my opinion after their eye opening 42-3 victory over Iowa.

Why Georgia? Mainly because they beat every team they played in the SEC by a decisive margin leading up the Bama game. And I think we can agree that the SEC is the best conference in the country. I was really impressed during their three week stretch against Arkansas (37-0), Auburn (34-10), and Kentucky (30-13). Then they thumped Florida on their home their home field. A Florida team that is a few plays away from being a two loss team. They pass the eye test for me. In my opinion, based on their body of work for the entire season, they are still the #1 team in the country. Why they laid an egg against Bama is beyond me. We'll find out more in the playoffs..........where I'll be rooting for Blue! 

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15 hours ago, BTF said:

I'll take Ohio State by 14+ in the Rose Bowl. The west just doesn't pose much of a threat anymore. 

I think OSU will win as well...but intrigued by this game.  The Rose Bowl will mean everything for the Utes and their fans.  Utah spanked Oregon twice....and OSU lost to the Ducks at home.  But, something didn't seem right at Oregon at the end, as their give a crap factor seemed to go out the door.  Maybe Mario knew for awhile he was headed back home.......

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21 minutes ago, BTF said:

After Notre Dame, I root for Indiana and Purdue. Then I pull for our midwestern neighbors. I'm with you on this. I want Michigan to win badly for the Big Ten. They have as good of a shot as anyone in my opinion after their eye opening 42-3 victory over Iowa.

Why Georgia? Mainly because they beat every team they played in the SEC by a decisive margin leading up the Bama game. And I think we can agree that the SEC is the best conference in the country. I was really impressed during their three week stretch against Arkansas (37-0), Auburn (34-10), and Kentucky (30-13). Then they thumped Florida on their home their home field. A Florida team that is a few plays away from being a two loss team. They pass the eye test for me. In my opinion, based on their body of work for the entire season, they are still the #1 team in the country. Why they laid an egg against Bama is beyond me. We'll find out more in the playoffs..........where I'll be rooting for Blue! 

I hear where you are coming from, but the SEC East this year was not the SEC West...but a long shot.  While Arkansas improved, they are not among the SEC elite and Auburn was also down.  Florida was a trash can fire...and it cost their coach his job.  Clemson was way down.  So I think GA got some blessings playing a weaker than normal SEC schedule.  You have to have QB play to win, and I am not sold on the GA QB.  (in fairness not sold on the Michigan QB)  Should be a game that features defense, and it will be interesting to see the impact of the Dogs speed vs Michigan.  I think the Dogs can win and I agree after their butt spanking in the SEC conference title game, they have much to prove.

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1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

I hear where you are coming from, but the SEC East this year was not the SEC West...but a long shot.  While Arkansas improved, they are not among the SEC elite and Auburn was also down.  Florida was a trash can fire...and it cost their coach his job.  Clemson was way down.  So I think GA got some blessings playing a weaker than normal SEC schedule.  You have to have QB play to win, and I am not sold on the GA QB.  (in fairness not sold on the Michigan QB)  Should be a game that features defense, and it will be interesting to see the impact of the Dogs speed vs Michigan.  I think the Dogs can win and I agree after their butt spanking in the SEC conference title game, they have much to prove.

All good points, but I'm still rolling with the Dawgs. I've been wrong before, I'll probably be wrong again. I put a lot of stock into how two teams did against a similar opponent. Maybe too much stock? Possibly. 

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1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

I hear where you are coming from, but the SEC East this year was not the SEC West...but a long shot.  While Arkansas improved, they are not among the SEC elite and Auburn was also down.  Florida was a trash can fire...and it cost their coach his job.  Clemson was way down.  So I think GA got some blessings playing a weaker than normal SEC schedule.  You have to have QB play to win, and I am not sold on the GA QB.  (in fairness not sold on the Michigan QB)  Should be a game that features defense, and it will be interesting to see the impact of the Dogs speed vs Michigan.  I think the Dogs can win and I agree after their butt spanking in the SEC conference title game, they have much to prove.

SEC East = Big Ten West

1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

I think OSU will win as well...but intrigued by this game.  The Rose Bowl will mean everything for the Utes and their fans.  Utah spanked Oregon twice....and OSU lost to the Ducks at home.  But, something didn't seem right at Oregon at the end, as their give a crap factor seemed to go out the door.  Maybe Mario knew for awhile he was headed back home.......

Leaving Oregon for Miami seems nuts on the surface.

Will be fun to see how it plays out.

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1 hour ago, temptation said:

SEC East = Big Ten West

Leaving Oregon for Miami seems nuts on the surface.

Will be fun to see how it plays out.

I agree with your equation above.  

Well Mario is a U guy....I am sure he wants to return them back to what they were in their glory years.  We all know they used to be a major power.  I am guessing he will be a good recruiter in his home state..and this is the time to strike in Florida with both FSU and UF down as well.  UCF is moving to the Big 12, and they will also be competition.

I think I also read that Mario's mother is in poor health and she lives back in Miami...family may have also been a factor.

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

All good points, but I'm still rolling with the Dawgs. I've been wrong before, I'll probably be wrong again. I put a lot of stock into how two teams did against a similar opponent. Maybe too much stock? Possibly. 

I am not saying you are wrong....I guess I won't be surprised with either winner.  I am riding the fence on this one.  I just feel UGA was blessed to get the #3 seed....I thought the panel was kind.

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17 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I agree with your equation above.  

Well Mario is a U guy....I am sure he wants to return them back to what they were in their glory years.  We all know they used to be a major power.  I am guessing he will be a good recruiter in his home state..and this is the time to strike in Florida with both FSU and UF down as well.  UCF is moving to the Big 12, and they will also be competition.

I think I also read that Mario's mother is in poor health and she lives back in Miami...family may have also been a factor.

Ah, gotcha.  Can't put a price tag on going home, but the facilities, fan support, resources and lack of in-state competition for elite recruits makes it a daunting task.

Going from 60k screaming fans at Autzen to a stadium that'll be one-third full and is 10+ miles away from campus will be an adjustment.

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19 minutes ago, temptation said:

Ah, gotcha.  Can't put a price tag on going home, but the facilities, fan support, resources and lack of in-state competition for elite recruits makes it a daunting task.

Going from 60k screaming fans at Autzen to a stadium that'll be one-third full and is 10+ miles away from campus will be an adjustment.

No disagreement....I think he will have plenty of competition for in-state recruits.

Back in their glory days, did they play in the old Orange Bowl?  They used to fill that, but not sure the distance from Coral Gables.  I am not sure how their resources compare.  Perhaps the admin is making some promises....

https://247sports.com/college/miami/Article/Resources-key-for-Miami-Hurricanes-football-in-Mario-Cristobal-era-177718098/

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3 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

I am not saying you are wrong....I guess I won't be surprised with either winner.  I am riding the fence on this one.  I just feel UGA was blessed to get the #3 seed....I thought the panel was kind.

I'm not sure how you can put Cincinnati over Georgia. Remember, the committee stresses the importance over body of work over the entire season. Georgia's resume is a bit more impressive than Cincinnati's.  I actually thought they got the seedings correct. I think, if anything, Michigan could have made a push for #1. In the end, I think they got it right. 

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17 minutes ago, BTF said:

I'm not sure how you can put Cincinnati over Georgia. Remember, the committee stresses the importance over body of work over the entire season. Georgia's resume is a bit more impressive than Cincinnati's.  I actually thought they got the seedings correct. I think, if anything, Michigan could have made a push for #1. In the end, I think they got it right. 

Both went out and scheduled a solid non conference game (though Cincinnati’s was on the road and Georgia’s was at a neutral site).

Obviously Georgia’s body of work was more impressive but Cincinnati has the better win.

Even though they won’t admit it, the committee didn’t want a rematch in the semifinal because I think Michigan nearly quadrupling the spread and still getting leapfrogged by a Bama team that everyone left for dead last week is more egregious than Georgia over Cincinnati.

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

I'm not sure how you can put Cincinnati over Georgia. Remember, the committee stresses the importance over body of work over the entire season. Georgia's resume is a bit more impressive than Cincinnati's.  I actually thought they got the seedings correct. I think, if anything, Michigan could have made a push for #1. In the end, I think they got it right. 

Temptation covered it most.

Again, not saying I am right and you have a solid point about a body of work.  Cincy did everything asked of them...they ran the table and beat a ranked team significantly in their conference championship.  They are conference champions.  Georgia played a decent schedule (not great) and got blown out in the conference championship game, hosted in Atlanta...not far from Athens.  Got taken to the woodshed, and bare butt spanked.  It was ugly.  

Based on that performance...they should have to prove why they are in the playoffs, and no better way that having to face the team that just slapped you around.  I hate they are getting a pass for that lackluster performance with a conference championship at hand.  That's why I put an undefeated team and conference champion ahead of them.

Not saying that makes me correct...but that's my line of thought.

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12 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Temptation covered it most.

Again, not saying I am right and you have a solid point about a body of work.  Cincy did everything asked of them...they ran the table and beat a ranked team significantly in their conference championship.  They are conference champions.  Georgia played a decent schedule (not great) and got blown out in the conference championship game, hosted in Atlanta...not far from Athens.  Got taken to the woodshed, and bare butt spanked.  It was ugly.  

Based on that performance...they should have to prove why they are in the playoffs, and no better way that having to face the team that just slapped you around.  I hate they are getting a pass for that lackluster performance with a conference championship at hand.  That's why I put an undefeated team and conference champion ahead of them.

Not saying that makes me correct...but that's my line of thought.

Should Cincinnati and Notre Dame have bumped Georgia? 

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34 minutes ago, temptation said:

No.

 

I don't think so either, but he does make a decent point. Should any team that gets waxed at the end of the season go to the playoffs? The committee thinks so. Notre Dame last year and Georgia this year...............body of work. I'm good with that. 

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10 minutes ago, BTF said:

I don't think so either, but he does make a decent point. Should any team that gets waxed at the end of the season go to the playoffs? The committee thinks so. Notre Dame last year and Georgia this year...............body of work. I'm good with that. 

Eh, I’m not sure I would say “waxed.”  The pick six makes the final score appear more lopsided than it was.

As a fan of a team that has had some great seasons only to get blown out on Thanksgiving weekend, I get your point.

You can lose late and still be one of the best four teams but you better have a large margin for error like Georgia did.

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13 minutes ago, temptation said:

Eh, I’m not sure I would say “waxed.”  The pick six makes the final score appear more lopsided than it was.

As a fan of a team that has had some great seasons only to get blown out on Thanksgiving weekend, I get your point.

You can lose late and still be one of the best four teams but you better have a large margin for error like Georgia did.

And they were up 10-0 at one point early in the game. It takes a good team to do that.  

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40 minutes ago, BTF said:

And they were up 10-0 at one point early in the game. It takes a good team to do that.  

Eh, emotion can propel a team to a fast start but eventually the cream rises to the top and it comes down to execution.

UGA looked like a deer in headlights when they had to rely on their offense to dig them out of a hole and climb back into the game.

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44 minutes ago, temptation said:

UGA looked like a deer in headlights when they had to rely on their offense to dig them out of a hole and climb back into the game.

They didn't know what hit them. Too many expectations to win that game. They weren't ready for what Alabama brought to the table. They'll do better as the underdog next time around, if there is one. 

What is your spread on Georgia/Michigan? Without looking at the Vegas odds, I'm gonna say Bulldogs by 4. 

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4 hours ago, BTF said:

Should Cincinnati and Notre Dame have bumped Georgia? 

I would have certainly put Cincy over UGA based over performance in conference championship games.  I think UGA needs to prove themselves by playing Bama again.  If they can't handle them, I'd rather see it in the semifinal than in the final.  UGA is the only conference runner-up in the playoffs and the manner in which they lost their conference championship should have them at the bottom.  UGA got waxed basically playing a home game in Atlanta.

Would I have ND bump UGA?  I would say no...same losses with ND playing one less game.  While UGA's schedule was not overly impressive, I would rank it over ND.  ND losing at home to Cincy and almost losing at home to Toledo still sticks in my head.

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18 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I would have certainly put Cincy over UGA based over performance in conference championship games.  I think UGA needs to prove themselves by playing Bama again.  If they can't handle them, I'd rather see it in the semifinal than in the final.  UGA is the only conference runner-up in the playoffs and the manner in which they lost their conference championship should have them at the bottom.  UGA got waxed basically playing a home game in Atlanta.

Would I have ND bump UGA?  I would say no...same losses with ND playing one less game.  While UGA's schedule was not overly impressive, I would rank it over ND.  ND losing at home to Cincy and almost losing at home to Toledo still sticks in my head.

I can't really argue other than "almost losing to Toledo at home." Notre Dame is a far much different team not than they were then. Their new quarterback and entire offensive line was trying to find their stride at that point in the season. That being said, Notre Dame is where they deserve to be at #5. 

Some people will make a case for Ohio State, but I'm going to stick with what I said a couple of weeks ago. No team with two losses should be in the playoffs. If you lose two games in the regular season, you can't call yourself champions in the NCAA. 

On a different note. I just saw that Kyren Williams opted out of the game against Oklahoma State. Not sure how I feel about this. We come down hard on coaches for leaving before the post season. Should it be ok for a player to say, "nah, I'm not playing in the game. " What's to stop them I guess, they could just quit. 

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

They didn't know what hit them. Too many expectations to win that game. They weren't ready for what Alabama brought to the table. They'll do better as the underdog next time around, if there is one. 

What is your spread on Georgia/Michigan? Without looking at the Vegas odds, I'm gonna say Bulldogs by 4. 

I’ll be honest, I think the SEC vs Big Ten narrative is setting this line.  Both teams have monster defenses and one could argue, MICHIGAN has the better offense (definitely the better QB).

Folks are used to seeing Bama shred Big Ten teams in the playoff (see OSU/MSU, save for 2014) and using that to make their predictions.

Georgia is not as good as folks thought they were all season and it turns out Michigan is much better and has been improving each week.  As I stated above, the dogs were elevated to a pedestal for slowing down a Clemson outfit that was vastly overrated as it turns out.

When it comes to talent however, Georgia, along with Ohio State and Alabama are easily the three most talented teams in the country.  They will each have double figure draft picks in April.

Michigan‘s offensive coordinator, along with their head coach just won coach of the year.  They will have to outscheme the Georgia defense as Michigan’s bread and butter is running between the tackles and that just simply won’t work against Georgia.

I am not saying Michigan should be favored, but I do not see it being a blowout in either direction.

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I just saw that Vegas has Georgia as a 7.5 favorite. This game may be the most fascinating of the entire football season. 

Of the four contests pitting the SEC vs the Big 10, Vegas has the Big 10 winning three. I'm looking forward discussing who the best conference in the country is after the post season. Right now I give the edge to the SEC. We shall see. 

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