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Schools per class/How many are in 5a? Success Factor Update?


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Hello, with the new enrollment numbers out. Can anyone remind me how 5a will go this time? How about a new update on success factor schools. The IHSAA looks a year old on data. 

If you know who is playing up or getting moved down please add to this post. For instance, Chatard is stated to be 4A for 2022-23 on https://www.ihsaa.org/Portals/0/ihsaa/documents/Tournament Success Factor/Football Success Totals 2019-20 2020-21.pdf

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With the meeting's minute notes stating "Point totals from 2020-21 and the current school year will be used to determine Tournament Success Factor movement." I believe this is what that file would/will look like for at least 5A and 4A:

image.png.4fa867ff3197de3e5e72b74c683cb712.png

Where it's going to get tricky is for Chatard, Western Boone, and Lafayette Central Catholic. All three of those schools were bumped up THIS season for their Success Factor Points from the 2019-20 and 2020-2021 seasons. But if the IHSAA is going to use 2020-21 and 2021-22 Success Factor Points to determine what schools get bumped up this time... will those 3 schools points be from two different classes? 

Neither Chatard (4A) or Western Boone (3A) won their sectional this past season, and LCC (2A) won a sectional worth 1 point. I am thinking all three of those teams will get sent down to their previous class, unless they stay due to enrollment (which could be close for Western Boone).

Here is what I think the rest of the classes will look like:

image.png.3d97a8f349b5a0c196e0c354ad8a4edb.png

image.png.77416d35c8adc66b59e9042652284b24.png

 

 

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13 minutes ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

With the meeting's minute notes stating "Point totals from 2020-21 and the current school year will be used to determine Tournament Success Factor movement." I believe this is what that file would/will look like for at least 5A and 4A:

image.png.4fa867ff3197de3e5e72b74c683cb712.png

Where it's going to get tricky is for Chatard, Western Boone, and Lafayette Central Catholic. All three of those schools were bumped up THIS season for their Success Factor Points from the 2019-20 and 2020-2021 seasons. But if the IHSAA is going to use 2020-21 and 2021-22 Success Factor Points to determine what schools get bumped up this time... will those 3 schools points be from two different classes? 

Neither Chatard (4A) or Western Boone (3A) won their sectional this past season, and LCC (2A) won a sectional worth 1 point. I am thinking all three of those teams will get sent down to their previous class, unless they stay due to enrollment (which could be close for Western Boone).

Here is what I think the rest of the classes will look like:

image.png.3d97a8f349b5a0c196e0c354ad8a4edb.png

image.png.77416d35c8adc66b59e9042652284b24.png

 

 

Forgot about Dwenger. Good stuff.

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I think any team who’s only been bumped up for this past year should stay up for this next cycle. I just don’t think it makes logical sense to bump teams up and make other teams stay up because of the past two years and then let other teams bump down based off one year. As most people on here said at the time, IHSAA screwed this whole thing up last year by applying the success factor but not reclassifying enrollments. Now you’re going to have some schools feeling slighted no matter what happens. 

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49 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

I think any team who’s only been bumped up for this past year should stay up for this next cycle. I just don’t think it makes logical sense to bump teams up and make other teams stay up because of the past two years and then let other teams bump down based off one year. As most people on here said at the time, IHSAA screwed this whole thing up last year by applying the success factor but not reclassifying enrollments. Now you’re going to have some schools feeling slighted no matter what happens. 

I find it hard to believe that Chatard and LCC - who are two of the teams the SF was created for (let’s not kid ourselves otherwise) would be allowed to drop back after one year. 

They have shown once before to re-write the rules to prevent Cathedral from dropping down. I expect that to happen again. 

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One thing the IHSAA could do, since there's one bumped-to 4A (Chatard), 3A (WeBo) and 2A (LCC) school in this situation and by my count 317 football-playing schools. 

Put those three in their current classes for this year, so 4A would have 64 schools and the others 63 each. If they get their two points, they stay up for next year. If they don't, they drop back down next year. Design the sectionals so they can drop back with little disruption (e.g., Chatard move into WeBo's sectional, WeBo into LCC's, create a 7-team sectional in 1A where LCC would go). 

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12 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

One thing the IHSAA could do, since there's one bumped-to 4A (Chatard), 3A (WeBo) and 2A (LCC) school in this situation and by my count 317 football-playing schools. 

Put those three in their current classes for this year, so 4A would have 64 schools and the others 63 each. If they get their two points, they stay up for next year. If they don't, they drop back down next year. Design the sectionals so they can drop back with little disruption (e.g., Chatard move into WeBo's sectional, WeBo into LCC's, create a 7-team sectional in 1A where LCC would go). 

Be careful your interjecting logic into the situation and we just can't have that  .................... 🤪

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One thing - putting 4A South together is going to be a headache because Madison & South Dearborn both moved to 3A and you have a bunch of schools on islands (East Central, Jennings County, Silver Creek, BNL, Northview, Edgewood). The IHSAA has to figure out what it's going to do with the southeastern part of the state especially, and then can put the rest of the state together. 

There are 24 schools in 4A in the Region (6 teams), SB/Elkhart area (8 teams) and the Fort Wayne area (10 teams). That's three sectional fields. 

Sectional 20 is a challenge. You have Logansport-Kokomo-Western-Marion-Mississinewa (and likely Muncie Central) who will almost assuredly be together. Of the remaining schools, do you put two of Jay County, Frankfort or Pendleton Heights with them? - and the key to that is what you do with Connersville, East Central and Shelbyville (do you send them in with Richmond/New Castle/Mt. Vernon/New Pal/Greenfield ... if so, then where does Jennings County go? If not, JC & Frankfort likely go north, PH goes into its old sectional and Shelby likely stays in). 

There are 7 in SW Indiana. The issue then comes as to which "island" school do you group with them - Silver Creek, Northview or BNL? That, then, is the key to the rest of the southern 5 sectional fields and how you split them up. 

And one other question - is Chatard part of 4A or not? That could be another key. 

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50 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

One thing the IHSAA could do, since there's one bumped-to 4A (Chatard), 3A (WeBo) and 2A (LCC) school in this situation and by my count 317 football-playing schools. 

Put those three in their current classes for this year, so 4A would have 64 schools and the others 63 each. If they get their two points, they stay up for next year. If they don't, they drop back down next year. Design the sectionals so they can drop back with little disruption (e.g., Chatard move into WeBo's sectional, WeBo into LCC's, create a 7-team sectional in 1A where LCC would go). 

That actually makes a lot of sense. Maybe one minor issue - like what if WeBo drops because they lose in sectional but LCC wins regional and stays? 
 

So maybe it’s something like 4A 22 - 8 teams including Chatard. 3A 28 - 7 teams including WeBo. 2A 37 - 7 teams including LCC. 

They showed last time two completely different brackets for two years with Carmel being North and South over a 2 year span that it would not be impossible. 

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1 hour ago, crimsonace1 said:

One thing the IHSAA could do, since there's one bumped-to 4A (Chatard), 3A (WeBo) and 2A (LCC) school in this situation and by my count 317 football-playing schools. 

Put those three in their current classes for this year, so 4A would have 64 schools and the others 63 each. If they get their two points, they stay up for next year. If they don't, they drop back down next year. Design the sectionals so they can drop back with little disruption (e.g., Chatard move into WeBo's sectional, WeBo into LCC's, create a 7-team sectional in 1A where LCC would go). 

I get it... but "Point totals from 2020-21 and the current school year (2021-22) will be used to determine Tournament Success Factor movement."  With that, all 3 move back to enrolment based class. 

10 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

That actually makes a lot of sense. Maybe one minor issue - like what if WeBo drops because they lose in sectional but LCC wins regional and stays? 
 

So maybe it’s something like 4A 22 - 8 teams including Chatard. 3A 28 - 7 teams including WeBo. 2A 37 - 7 teams including LCC. 

They showed last time two completely different brackets for two years with Carmel being North and South over a 2 year span that it would not be impossible. 

The sectionals will be completely different... At least sectional 37... Speedway moves up to 3A because of enrolment Seeger appears to be on the border of 2A/1A, Webo appears to be on the border of 3A/2A.  All the sectionals will be completely different... Look at 3A now, you have Andrean, Evansville Mater Dei, and Bishop Luers all moving up because of enrolment... That will have an affect on the sectionals in both 2A & 3A.  

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12 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

That actually makes a lot of sense. Maybe one minor issue - like what if WeBo drops because they lose in sectional but LCC wins regional and stays? 
 

So maybe it’s something like 4A 22 - 8 teams including Chatard. 3A 28 - 7 teams including WeBo. 2A 37 - 7 teams including LCC. 

They showed last time two completely different brackets for two years with Carmel being North and South over a 2 year span that it would not be impossible. 

4A would have 64 teams in this scenario, 3A and 2A would have 63, so if Chatard drops and WeBo stays, or if WeBo drops and LCC stays, so you put the 7-team sectionals in a spot where they could absorb another team (and thankfully, WeBo/Chatard and WeBo/LCC are close enough where they could fit in each other's sectional fields. It's not like we're deciding between Angola and an Evansville school). 

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12 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

One thing - putting 4A South together is going to be a headache because Madison & South Dearborn both moved to 3A and you have a bunch of schools on islands (East Central, Jennings County, Silver Creek, BNL, Northview, Edgewood). The IHSAA has to figure out what it's going to do with the southeastern part of the state especially, and then can put the rest of the state together. 

There are 24 schools in 4A in the Region (6 teams), SB/Elkhart area (8 teams) and the Fort Wayne area (10 teams). That's three sectional fields. 

Sectional 20 is a challenge. You have Logansport-Kokomo-Western-Marion-Mississinewa (and likely Muncie Central) who will almost assuredly be together. Of the remaining schools, do you put two of Jay County, Frankfort or Pendleton Heights with them? - and the key to that is what you do with Connersville, East Central and Shelbyville (do you send them in with Richmond/New Castle/Mt. Vernon/New Pal/Greenfield ... if so, then where does Jennings County go? If not, JC & Frankfort likely go north, PH goes into its old sectional and Shelby likely stays in). 

There are 7 in SW Indiana. The issue then comes as to which "island" school do you group with them - Silver Creek, Northview or BNL? That, then, is the key to the rest of the southern 5 sectional fields and how you split them up. 

And one other question - is Chatard part of 4A or not? That could be another key. 

4A South has been a headache for recent classifications.  Marion or Muncie Central have both been "south" over the last 4-5 years.  Based on the numbers posted it looks like Brebeuf and Evansville Bosse are moving up to 4A and BNL is moving down to 4A, which adds some south flexibility.   I also imagine Chatard will be there too. IF Bosse drops (and I'm still not sold on that, there have been issues in the past with their counts) that means Northview is free to be moved somewhere else. 

Greenwood, Beech Grove, Martinsville, and Mooresville are probably a block that stays together IMO.  

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22 minutes ago, jets said:

So Pioneer and SR are the public school sacrificial lambs in this scenario?? And from what I'm reading, Chatard and LCC get a move down? 

Ya- this whole thing makes a ton of sense. 

Bravo IHSAA, bravo

Pioneer and SR both earned 2 points in 2020 and success factor points are calculated over the two years prior to the reclassification. 

We don't know what the IHSAA will do with Chatard, WeBo & LCC, but neither accumulated two points last year in their new class. 

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26 minutes ago, jets said:

So Pioneer and SR are the public school sacrificial lambs in this scenario?? And from what I'm reading, Chatard and LCC get a move down? 

Ya- this whole thing makes a ton of sense. 

Bravo IHSAA, bravo

How are they sacrificial lambs? They earned 2 points in the latest 2 year cylce while being bumped up a class.... that's the rule that keeps them up a class for another cycle.

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1 minute ago, crimsonace1 said:

Pioneer and SR both earned 2 points in 2020 and success factor points are calculated over the two years prior to the reclassification. 

We don't know what the IHSAA will do with Chatard, WeBo & LCC, but neither accumulated two points last year in their new class. 

Correct- and to my understanding - the SF is suppose to be a 2 year window, correct? 

SO, if SR does not accumulate any SF points in the upcoming football season, we can move back down for the 23 season? 

Potentially, SR/Pioneer get 3 years stays without accumlating any SF points, and Chatard/LCC get 1 year passes? 

Got it- makes a ton of sense. 

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2 minutes ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

How are they sacrificial lambs? They earned 2 points in the latest 2 year cylce while being bumped up a class.... that's the rule that keeps them up a class for another cycle.

I was under the impression the SF was a 2 year cycle- but I get blasted every time I try and point out SR/Pioneer could potentially get 3 years under this decision. 

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Just now, jets said:

I was under the impression the SF was a 2 year cycle- but I get blasted every time I try and point out SR/Pioneer could potentially get 3 years under this decision. 

But they aren't... look above. The 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons are getting counted into the Success Factor point totals this year. Both Pioneer and Southridge won Regionals Championships (worth 2 points) within that 2 year cycle, not 3 years.

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52 minutes ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

But they aren't... look above. The 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons are getting counted into the Success Factor point totals this year. Both Pioneer and Southridge won Regionals Championships (worth 2 points) within that 2 year cycle, not 3 years.

Granted, I'm not a smart guy, so I'll try and lay this out (football years listed)

17- Won State

18- Semi-State appearance 

19&20 - bumped up due to SF

19- sectional loss (no points)

20- semi-state appearance

21&22 - stay up due to semi-state appearance

21- sectional loss

22- ??

23 - ?? 

So, as stated previously - that is a 3 year stay based on the SF? 

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Just now, jets said:

Granted, I'm not a smart guy, so I'll try and lay this out (football years listed)

17- Won State

18- Semi-State appearance 

19&20 - bumped up due to SF

19- sectional loss (no points)

20- semi-state appearance

21&22 - stay up due to semi-state appearance

21- sectional loss

22- ??

23 - ?? 

So, as stated previously - that is a 3 year stay based on the SF? 

It's hard to follow how you laid it out, so let me try a different way.

image.png.be90893dd69c00d3bba53c7243878bcf.png

I believe technically, it's going to be a 6 year stay, all based on the 2020 Regional Championship while in 3A.

The 6 points accumulated from the 2017 and 2018 seasons in 2A bumped them up to 3A.

In the next two-year cylce, 2 points were accumulated thanks to the Regional Championship in 2020. So NO MATTER WHAT - Southridge was going to stay in 3A for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. So next year playing in 3A would have happened COVID be damned.

However, it looks like that 2020 Regional Championship will keep Southridge in 3A for the 2022 and 2023 seasons as well. So I see what you are saying.

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1 hour ago, jets said:

I was under the impression the SF was a 2 year cycle- but I get blasted every time I try and point out SR/Pioneer could potentially get 3 years under this decision. 

The SF is a 2-year cycle, but the last enrollment cycle was a three-year one because of COVID screwing with the enrollment numbers. Because SR & Pioneer's latest regional title came in what will now be the *first* year of the new two-year cycle, they'll get an extra year. New Pal & a couple other schools drop back down a year early, too. Someone is going to benefit and someone's going to stay up an extra year. You're not going to come up with a system that pleases everyone. 

As I read the IHSAA's notes on their Success Factor page, what I think will be the only mid-cycle adjustment will be Chatard, WeBo & LCC will stay up for the first year of the cycle and move back down. But that's a stab and hasn't been confirmed with the IHSAA. 

Southridge may be moving up on enrollment in 2024 as it is. 

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31 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

The SF is a 2-year cycle, but the last enrollment cycle was a three-year one because of COVID screwing with the enrollment numbers. Because SR & Pioneer's latest regional title came in what will now be the *first* year of the new two-year cycle, they'll get an extra year. New Pal & a couple other schools drop back down a year early, too. Someone is going to benefit and someone's going to stay up an extra year. You're not going to come up with a system that pleases everyone. 

As I read the IHSAA's notes on their Success Factor page, what I think will be the only mid-cycle adjustment will be Chatard, WeBo & LCC will stay up for the first year of the cycle and move back down. But that's a stab and hasn't been confirmed with the IHSAA. 

Southridge may be moving up on enrollment in 2024 as it is. 

Exactly- I guess someone had to fall on the sword. 

While LCC and Chatard get to move back down (maybe)

That makes a ton of sense. 

And you're more than likely right about enrollment- but at 517 would have liked one last go around in 2A instead of an extra SF year. 

-

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