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Schools per class/How many are in 5a? Success Factor Update?


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21 hours ago, 1st_and_10 said:

Mater Dei will be in 3A because of enrolment.  

Where do you see this 

 

ihsaa document of 2022-2024 enrollments is unavailable to me for some reason (idk maybe they took down the pdf file) 

but the last enrollment number I have found is about 535.  

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3 hours ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

Where do you see this 

 

ihsaa document of 2022-2024 enrollments is unavailable to me for some reason (idk maybe they took down the pdf file) 

but the last enrollment number I have found is about 535.  

The numbers the IHSAA sent out were not correct.  535 would be 3A.  That number likely isnt correct

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We're all guessing here (unless someone has insider info from the IHSAA) so I will share my guesses too.

Guess #1 - The IHSAA will place each team into their class for the whole 2-year cycle for the 2022 & 2023 football seasons. There will be no mid-year Success Factor cycle changes (for teams like Chatard, WeBo, LCC or Southridge, Pioneer) if they do not earn the 1 or 2 points in the 2022 season.

Guess #2 - As others have pointed out, Southridge & Pioneer will probably be kept up for another this upcoming 2-year cycle after earning just 2 points over the past 3 seasons. Using that same logic, I believe Chatard, WeBo, LCC (just moved up in 2021) should stay up because they each earned more than 2 points over the past 2 seasons, even though the 2020 season was in a lower class.

Even though the Success Factor is based solely on 2-year cycles, part of my rationale is based upon those schools extraordinary level of success throughout the years-- 15 state titles for Chatard, 8 titles for LCC, 4 titles for WeBo (3 straight in 18-19-20). And actually, WeBo may be the best example why these teams should remain up for the '22 & '23 seasons-- 1pt '17 + 4pts '18 = stayed in 2A, 4pts '19 + 4pts '20 = up to 3A. 0pts in '21 playing up in 3A. IMO there's no way that a team who won 3 straight state championships should ONLY spend 1 year in the higher class before being moved back down. Same goes for Chatard & LCC with their 23 combined state titles.

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Southridge would be 3A on enrollment anyway. They and Pioneer won't "probably" be kept up. They *will* be kept up. They have achieved two points in their higher class in the last two years. 

The question marks are Chatard, Western Boone & LCC. Each bumped last year, but didn't win the regional and thus doesn't have two points. My guess is they will be up for the start of the cycle and then drop back down if they don't get their two points this year (except WeBo, which will likely stay up in 3A due to enrollment). 

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Merrillville and Chesterton fall from 6A to 5A. That’s gonna mess up the north in 5A! There are 8 schools from NWI. Which will push the Mishawaka sectional to the “semistate” which will push the laffyette or fw schools to the south bracket. The north has 18 or 19 schools in north bracket of 5A and only 13 or 14 on south.!! 

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39 minutes ago, Piratefan101 said:

Merrillville and Chesterton fall from 6A to 5A. That’s gonna mess up the north in 5A! There are 8 schools from NWI. Which will push the Mishawaka sectional to the “semistate” which will push the laffyette or fw schools to the south bracket. The north has 18 or 19 schools in north bracket of 5A and only 13 or 14 on south.!! 

The north/south line is determined by number of schools. 

Here's how I see 5A playing out

9: Hammond Central, Morton, Munster, Merrillville
10: Valpo, Chesterton, MC, LaPorte
11: SB Adams, Mishawaka, Concord, Goshen
12: Dwenger, North, Snider, Anderson

With the southern half, there's a lot of ways you can go
13: McCutcheon, Harrison, Plainfield, Decatur Central
14: TH North, TH South, Bloomington North, Bloomington South
15: Seymour, Columbus East, Franklin, Whiteland
16: Ev. North, Castle, Floyd Central, New Albany

Basically, the main questions are do you split up McC/Harrison and send Harrison to 12 (and Anderson back south) or do you make Anderson make the long trip? I anticipate the IHSAA is going to try to keep the pairs together, and Anderson's location on I-69 makes it an easy send to Fort Wayne. 

In the south, you have multiple pairs - McC/Harrison, Plainfield/DC, the TH & Bloomington schools, Seymour/East, Franklin/Whiteland, EvN/Castle, Floyd/NA. You can mix & match those pairs in a lot of different ways. You could flip Plainfield/DC with the TH schools (and if that happens, pair Franklin/Whiteland with Plainfield/DC, then likely the Bloomington schools with the two Evansville schools, putting Seymour/East with Floyd/NA). 

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On 3/3/2022 at 10:11 AM, jets said:

I was under the impression the SF was a 2 year cycle- but I get blasted every time I try and point out SR/Pioneer could potentially get 3 years under this decision. 

On 3/3/2022 at 11:31 AM, NLCTigerFan07 said:

It's hard to follow how you laid it out, so let me try a different way.

image.png.be90893dd69c00d3bba53c7243878bcf.png

I believe technically, it's going to be a 6 year stay, all based on the 2020 Regional Championship while in 3A.

The 6 points accumulated from the 2017 and 2018 seasons in 2A bumped them up to 3A.

In the next two-year cylce, 2 points were accumulated thanks to the Regional Championship in 2020. So NO MATTER WHAT - Southridge was going to stay in 3A for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. So next year playing in 3A would have happened COVID be damned.

However, it looks like that 2020 Regional Championship will keep Southridge in 3A for the 2022 and 2023 seasons as well. So I see what you are saying.

Hey @jets - Just following up here. With the updated enrollment numbers, it looks like Southridge will be in 3A due to enrollment anyway. I show them as the 3rd smallest school via enrollment in class 3A.

image.png.eb7664a37b12a945f45f2caf51c882d2.png


Even if Chatard gets bumped to stay in class 4A and Western Boone gets bumped to stay in class 3A, Southridge will still stay in 3A.

Edited by NLCTigerFan07
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6 hours ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

Hey @jets - Just following up here. With the updated enrollment numbers, it looks like Southridge will be in 3A due to enrollment anyway. I show them as the 3rd smallest school via enrollment in class 3A.

image.png.eb7664a37b12a945f45f2caf51c882d2.png


Even if Chatard gets bumped to stay in class 4A and Western Boone gets bumped to stay in class 3A, Southridge will still stay in 3A.

Ya - seems all the SF mumble jumble jocking was a moot point after all. I didn't think the 517 number would be enough to keep us in 3A , seeing as how we were actually larger in our 2017 State Championship year (2A)- but I guess that's how the numbers played out. 

Now, for the IHSAA sectional alignments to play out. (Please fix sectional 30!) 

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44 minutes ago, jets said:

Ya - seems all the SF mumble jumble jocking was a moot point after all. I didn't think the 517 number would be enough to keep us in 3A , seeing as how we were actually larger in our 2017 State Championship year (2A)- but I guess that's how the numbers played out. 

Now, for the IHSAA sectional alignments to play out. (Please fix sectional 30!) 

There's always 28; especially when Chatard comes back. 😃

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44 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

FYI, we have confirmation from the IHSAA that Chatard will stay in 4A, Western Boone in 3A and LCC in 2A for both years of the upcoming cycle. 

Looks like WeBo is 3A - especially with a growing enrollment - for good as it is. 

Source?

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