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Why are Avon Sports Downtrending?


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With enrollment approaching 3300 and at an all time high, one would think that Avon High School athletics would be flying high.

Just the opposite seems to be the case.

Avon football was 1-9 in 2021.

Avon basketball is 15-31 over the past two seasons.

Avon baseball finished 7th in the HCC this spring.

Avon dropped a 65-3 wrestling dual match to rival Brownsburg in December.  Ouch!

Avon finished 7th in the HCC All Sports Standings for the 20-21 school year.

??????????????????

Is Avon overmatched in the HCC?

Is Avon getting outcoached?

Are kids transferring out to play elsewhere?

Is the dreaded free and reduced lunch rate to blame?

Are changing demographics and socio economics the culprits?

Inquiring minds would like to know.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by HHF
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1.  They are trending the opposite direction of the other HCC schools in terms of SES.  They hit the sweet spot 5-10 years go.

2.  Avon has outgrown itself in many areas (drive down US 36 anytime between 4-6pm on a weekday evening.  Families are more likely to flock to Brownsburg, Plainfield or Zionsville today.

3.  The lack of middle school commitment by their athletic department.  They use the intermediate school model (k-4, 5-6, 7-8, 9-12)...many 6th graders get lost in the shuffle and do not participate in athletics until 7th grade.  This puts them at a disadvantage compared to their counterparts.  

 

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Danville's football numbers are at an all time high, with a 3A roster at 110 players compared to just 70 three years ago, according to Coach Jayme Comer.  It has been suggested that Avon may be losing talent to neighbor Danville.  

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1 hour ago, HHF said:

Danville's football numbers are at an all time high, with a 3A roster at 110 players compared to just 70 three years ago, according to Coach Jayme Comer.  It has been suggested that Avon may be losing talent to neighbor Danville.  

1990's:  IPS talent flocks to the county schools.

2000's-2010's:  County talent flocks to the suburban Indy schools.

2020's:  Suburban talent continues to flock outward.

 

Pretty simple to me.

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20 minutes ago, temptation said:

1990's:  IPS talent flocks to the county schools.

2000's-2010's:  County talent flocks to the suburban Indy schools.

2020's:  Suburban talent continues to flock outward.

 

Pretty simple to me.

And yet Avon enrollment continues to grow.  Up 18% from 2016.  (2700 to 3300)  Is the student body changing?

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Schools - especially public schools - go through cycles. Avon had a wave of talent come through a few years ago - football was a perennial threat to go deep in the tourney, boys basketball won a sectional, their volleyball and wrestling programs have traditionally been state powers - but it may simply be that the talent has dried up a bit, especially compared to its neighbors. They made a hire in girls basketball a few years ago that I thought was a bad fit at the time and things quickly unraveled from there.

While they're huge, they're not on the same socioeconomic level as the other schools in their conference (who are equally huge) so they're likely more prone to those big swings in talent whereas an HSE or Zionsville can simply reload in a lot of sports. 

Have heard from some the school admin is more interested in performing arts (and their band/choir programs are first-rate), but their athletic facilities, at least, show a pretty strong commitment to athletics. 

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The demographic makeup of the school is changing, especially in the total number of African American and Hispanic students.

In 2015, Avon had 2700 students with 12% AA population (324 students)

In 2015, Avon had 2700 students with 6% Hispanic population (162 students)

Total AA/Hisp in 2015 - 486/2700 = 18%

 

In 2022, Avon has 3250 students with 17.5 % AA population (569 students)

In 2022, Avon has 3250 students with 10.6% Hispanic population (345 students)

Total AA/Hisp in 2022 - 914/3250 = 28%

 

Is there any correlation relative to the increase in minority student population and the decrease in overall competitive performance of Avon athletics?

 

 

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Everything that has been posted has truth to it.  But, one bad year in football IS NOT a trend. Basketball has not been competitive since we've lived here (2 sectional championships since 1970ish). Softball, volleyball, boys track all have recent state titles.  Let's revisit this in 5 years.

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28 minutes ago, HHF said:

And yet Avon enrollment continues to grow.  Up 18% from 2016.  (2700 to 3300)  Is the student body changing?

Avon in 2022 is akin to the top Marion County schools in the mid to late 90s when it comes to SES and enrollment. 

10 minutes ago, HHF said:

The demographic makeup of the school is changing, especially in the total number of African American and Hispanic students.

In 2015, Avon had 2700 students with 12% AA population (324 students)

In 2015, Avon had 2700 students with 6% Hispanic population (162 students)

Total AA/Hisp in 2015 - 486/2700 = 18%

 

In 2022, Avon has 3250 students with 17.5 % AA population (569 students)

In 2022, Avon has 3250 students with 10.6% Hispanic population (345 students)

Total AA/Hisp in 2022 - 914/3250 = 28%

 

Is there any correlation relative to the increase in minority student population and the decrease in overall competitive performance of Avon athletics?

 

 

Some folks do not like to hear it but certain sports lend themselves much more to students of varying socioeconomic backgrounds and ethnicities.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Staxawax said:

Everything that has been posted has truth to it.  But, one bad year in football IS NOT a trend. Basketball has not been competitive since we've lived here (2 sectional championships since 1970ish). Softball, volleyball, boys track all have recent state titles.  Let's revisit this in 5 years.

I agree here and while your point is on the mark, it is still concerning.  I made the analogy above to Avon being akin to the top Marion County schools in the late 90's and we saw what they were still able to do, particularly Warren Central in football.  I have made the point that at a certain point the enrollment at schools like Ben Davis and Warren offset their SES disadvantages to an extent and while Avon is not there yet (near 4000+ students), I assume they can get there and still have time.

Its a steep climb in the HCC though.  Avon is treading water while most (if not all) other conference schools are trending in the opposite direction.  Think CG and Carmel in the MIC...only the case could be made that the HCC will have 5-6 "CG's and Carmel's" by the end of the current decade.

 

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We've become accustomed to seeing D1 talent on the recruiting boards out of Avon over the past decade. Looks' like the pool is starting to run dry.

 

Look for the minority enrollment population to hit 40% in 3 to 5 years.  You will likely also see the first minority head coach in the HCC at Avon before too long as well.  

 

https://247sports.com/Season/2021-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&State=IN

 

 

 

Edited by HHF
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Let's not forget that Avon has had some issues in the Athletic Department that have resulted in a change of leadership. I'm sure that might have something to do with the state of things on Oriole Way.

Edited by BDGiant93
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6 minutes ago, BDGiant93 said:

Let's not forget that Avon has had some issues in the Athletic Department that have resulted in a change of leadership. I'm sure that might have something to do with the state of things on Oriole Way.

Which begs the question…which came first?  The chicken or the egg?

Edited by temptation
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