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6A Season Outlook--Discuss


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Have seen a few of these for the other classes but not one for 6A. 

This offseason has seen some massive shakeups with conference realignment along with the addition of Cathedral bumping up to 6A for a second time since the implementation of the Success Factor. For the first time in a long time the MIC is no longer the premier football conference in Indiana. In fact there's a very real chance the top 3 programs in the state this year will try and win the 6A title under the independent flag. 

Also for the first time in awhile there isn't a clear cut favorite heading into the season. Center Grove is looking to be the first team to 3peat in the largest class since Warren's unprecedented four year title run from 2003-2006. The Trojans have a tall task ahead of them replacing a ridiculously talented 2022 that will go down as the best in their schools history, but the Center Grove is now at the point where they no longer rebuild, the simply reload.

My preseason top 5 (and the 5 teams who I believe have a realistic chance to win it all)

1. Center Grove---28 straight wins, 2 consecutive state titles, they're #1 until someone beats them. Period.

2. Cathedral---newcomer to 6A, my personal (and homeristic) take is that Cathedral is the most talented team in the state this year. All-State caliber QB and WR should make for a very potent offense. Suffered heavy losses on the OL and defensive unit that was extremely stout last year. 

3. Carmel--Greyhounds failed to make it out of sectionals for the first time since 2012 last year. Carmel has a pair of Purdue commits anchoring their defense and should greatly benefit from their move back to the north end of the bracket and should be heavy favorites to represent come Thanksgiving Weekend. 

4. Brownsburg--Feel like this is put up or shut up time in this spot. Very talented squad who returns a fair amount from last year and should be the early favorites to win the HCC

5. Westfield---one of the fastest rising programs in the state. Lose a trio of D1 players from a squad who made it to back to back championship games but have enough left in the tank to get there a third time.

HSE, Warren, and Ben Davis are who I would consider the best of the rest. 

Edited by Footballking16
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16 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Have seen a few of these for the other classes but not one for 6A. 

This offseason has seen some massive shakeups with conference realignment along with the addition of Cathedral bumping up to 6A for a second time since the implementation of the Success Factor. For the first time in a long time the MIC is no longer the premier football conference in Indiana. In fact there's a very real chance the top 3 programs in the state this year will try and win the 6A title under the independent flag. 

Also for the first time in awhile there isn't a clear cut favorite heading into the season. Center Grove is looking to be the first team to 3peat in the largest class since Warren's unprecedented four year title run from 2003-2006. The Trojans have a tall task ahead of them replacing a ridiculously talented 2022 that will go down as the best in their schools history, but the Center Grove is now at the point where they no longer rebuild, the simply reload.

My preseason top 5 (and the 5 teams who I believe have a realistic chance to win it all)

1. Center Grove---28 straight wins, 2 consecutive state titles, they're #1 until someone beats them. Period.

2. Cathedral---newcomer to 6A, my personal (and homeristic) take is that Cathedral is the most talented team in the state this year. All-State caliber QB and WR should make for a very potent offense. Suffered heavy losses on the OL and defensive unit that was extremely stout last year. 

3. Carmel--Greyhounds failed to make it out of sectionals for the first time since 2012 last year. Carmel has a pair of Purdue commits anchoring their defense and should greatly benefit from their move back to the north end of the bracket and should be heavy favorites to represent come Thanksgiving Weekend. 

4. Brownsburg--Feel like this is put up or shut up time in this spot. Very talented squad who returns a fair amount from last year and should be the early favorites to win the HCC

5. Westfield---one of the fastest rising programs in the state. Lose a trio of D1 players from a squad who made it to back to back championship games but have enough left in the tank to get there a third time.

HSE, Warren, and Ben Davis are who I would consider the best of the rest. 

Agree but I think you are actually being a bit too modest about your Irish.  I’ve never bought into the “they are #1 until they are beaten” mantra.  CG’s graduation losses are well known.  Flip your top two and you are spot on.

Splitting hairs I know.  Good analysis.

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Just now, temptation said:

Agree but I think you are actually being a bit too modest about your Irish.  I’ve never bought into the “they are #1 until they are beaten” mantra.  CG’s graduation losses are well known.  Flip your top two and you are spot on.

Splitting hairs I know.  Good analysis.

While Cathedral didn't lose the magnitude of players that CG lost, they still lost 9/11 starters on defense and their entire offensive line. While I don't doubt Cathedral's ability to reload, just like Center Grove, still a tough task moving up to this level of competition. You could certainly make a case for Cathedral being #1 and I wouldn't necessarily disagree with it, I do believe CG has earned the right to be #1 until proven otherwise. 

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6 hours ago, Grover said:

Last year was last year.  Gotta put Cathedral #1 going in to the season.

Agreed.  
 

For fun, the Temp’s preseason top 10 would look like this:

1.  Cathedral

2.  Center Grove 

3.  Carmel

4.  Westfield

5.  Brownsburg

6.  Warren Central

7.  Ben Davis

8.  Hamilton Southeastern

9.  Fishers

10.  North Central

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19 minutes ago, temptation said:

Agreed.  
 

For fun, the Temp’s preseason top 10 would look like this:

1.  Cathedral

2.  Center Grove 

3.  Carmel

4.  Westfield

5.  Brownsburg

6.  Warren Central

7.  Ben Davis

8.  Hamilton Southeastern

9.  Fishers

10.  North Central

Whats the logic on the North Central pick at #10?  

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22 minutes ago, temptation said:

Agreed.  
 

For fun, the Temp’s preseason top 10 would look like this:

1.  Cathedral

2.  Center Grove 

3.  Carmel

4.  Westfield

5.  Brownsburg

6.  Warren Central

7.  Ben Davis

8.  Hamilton Southeastern

9.  Fishers

10.  North Central

Potentially sleeping on the Lawrences? 

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22 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Potentially sleeping on the Lawrences? 

Eh, need to see how LN fares losing their playmaker at WR.  Think LC will be much improved but not ready to rank them top ten yet.

I think Mallory is among the most overlooked coaches in Indiana and loved Patterson’s answers to the Facebook group.

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53 minutes ago, DT said:

Whats the logic on the North Central pick at #10?  

Too well coached to stay down and it’s a make it break year for O’Shea.

They’ve got a few dudes…

2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

O’Shea might be the best coach in that conference and they have just as many D1 commits as anybody else in that league.

Typed my response before reading yours, lol.

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1 hour ago, temptation said:

Agreed.  
 

For fun, the Temp’s preseason top 10 would look like this:

1.  Cathedral

2.  Center Grove 

3.  Carmel

4.  Westfield

5.  Brownsburg

6.  Warren Central

7.  Ben Davis

8.  Hamilton Southeastern

9.  Fishers

10.  North Central

Can’t argue too much with that. I’d think Zionsville would be better than Fishers though?

Any input on teams north of metro Indy? Elkhart the biggest “threat” out of sectional 1 or 2?

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13 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Can’t argue too much with that. I’d think Zionsville would be better than Fishers though?

Any input on teams north of metro Indy? Elkhart the biggest “threat” out of sectional 1 or 2?

Carroll lost some studs. I'm not sure they are a program that is top level every year, but I think Dinan has them on the cusp. They certainly have the student body and facilities to succeed. The Chargers should have a fighting chance in Sectional 2. Homestead is probably the team to beat in the Northeast. They seem to be pretty good every year without fail. But Sectional 3 will be brutal with HSE and Fishers. 

Temp says: "SAC good." There ya go Temp, now you don't have to post it yourself. 

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28 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Can’t argue too much with that. I’d think Zionsville would be better than Fishers though?

Any input on teams north of metro Indy? Elkhart the biggest “threat” out of sectional 1 or 2?

I am not predicting Zionsville’s demise like a couple of others I saw but they will have an uphill climb replacing significant talent in their first year in 6A.

Fishers has 1500 more students than Zionsville thus I think they have less growing pains/a less steep climb into the top ten.

I see no one past 7 in my list as a significant state title contender however.

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2 hours ago, temptation said:

Eh, need to see how LN fares losing their playmaker at WR.  Think LC will be much improved but not ready to rank them top ten yet.

I think Mallory is among the most overlooked coaches in Indiana and loved Patterson’s answers to the Facebook group.

Patterson has an NFL mentality.  I really like his approach and outlook.  If you look at The MIC over the past 15 years, LC is probably the closest to WC in terms of true athletic talent in numbers.  CG and Carmel have more football players, but LC has always had athletes, and lots of them.  Pike also has a chance to surprise some people this year.  They have struck out on their last two coaches, and hopes are high that Brevard is the guy that is going to bring back Pike football to the Moyers era level of success.  

O'Shea has followed the blue print of Tom Dilley.  Great PP success, failure at a big public.  I just dont see NC having enough to overcome the MIC 6 plus CG and CA.  I read something here on The GID once that inferred that O'Shea's move to NC was more for financial-pension related reasons than for taking on the monumental challenge of making NC a winner in The MIC.  And for the record, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that choice/decision.  We all make decisions through the course of our careers for different reasons and with different motivations.  After all these years at NC, OSheas teams and his program still have not developed an identity.  That is a big failure in my view, even more so than the won - loss record.

 

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5 minutes ago, DT said:

Patterson has an NFL mentality.  I really like his approach and outlook.  If you look at The MIC over the past 15 years, LC is probably the closest to WC in terms of true athletic talent in numbers.  CG and Carmel have more football players, but LC has always had athletes, and lots of them.  Pike also has a chance to surprise some people this year.  They have struck out on their last two coaches, and hopes are high that Brevard is the guy that is going to bring back Pike football to the Moyers era level of success.  

O'Shea has followed the blue print of Tom Dilley.  Great PP success, failure at a big public.  I just dont see NC having enough to overcome the MIC 6 plus CG and CA.  I read something here on The GID once that inferred that O'Shea's move to NC was more for financial-pension related reasons than for taking on the monumental challenge of making NC a winner in The MIC.  And for the record, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that choice/decision.  We all make decisions through the course of our careers for different reasons and with different motivations.  After all these years at NC, OSheas teams and his program still have not developed an identity.  That is a big failure in my view, even more so than the won - loss record.

 

Let’s revisit the O’Shea talk in 4 months.

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2 hours ago, DT said:

Patterson has an NFL mentality.  I really like his approach and outlook.  If you look at The MIC over the past 15 years, LC is probably the closest to WC in terms of true athletic talent in numbers.  CG and Carmel have more football players, but LC has always had athletes, and lots of them.  Pike also has a chance to surprise some people this year.  They have struck out on their last two coaches, and hopes are high that Brevard is the guy that is going to bring back Pike football to the Moyers era level of success.  

O'Shea has followed the blue print of Tom Dilley.  Great PP success, failure at a big public.  I just dont see NC having enough to overcome the MIC 6 plus CG and CA.  I read something here on The GID once that inferred that O'Shea's move to NC was more for financial-pension related reasons than for taking on the monumental challenge of making NC a winner in The MIC.  And for the record, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that choice/decision.  We all make decisions through the course of our careers for different reasons and with different motivations.  After all these years at NC, OSheas teams and his program still have not developed an identity.  That is a big failure in my view, even more so than the won - loss record.

 

Define failure? Not win a state title? They won 9 games a few years ago. They had 9 wins the previous 5 years combined.

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13 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Define failure? Not win a state title? They won 9 games a few years ago. They had 9 wins the previous 5 years combined.

Coach Record
Tom Deem (1963-1963) 0-9
Carol Purichia (1964-1968) 36-13-1
Dick Dullaghan (1969-1972) 35-5
Steve Purichia (1973-1982) 86-19
Chuck Schwanekamp (1983-1986) 47-6
Bill Tucker (1987-1987) 8-3
Tom Blanck (1988-1989) 8-10
Craig Barr (1990-1998) 73-31
Tom Dilley (1999-2002) 35-16  .686
Vince Lorenzano (2003-2016) 157-40
Rob Doyle (2017-2021) 52-16
OVERALL 537-168-1

 

Coach Record
Doug Reeser (1976-1994) 133-61
Steve Collier (1995-1998) 12-28
Kevin King (1999-2002) 13-27
Tom Dilley (2003-2012) 45-61  .424
Patrick Mallory (2013-2021) 31-62
OVERALL 234-239
John Jardine (1958-1958) 1-6
unknown (1959-2007) 231-224-4
Paul LaRocca (1963-1976) 25-7-1
Scott Muncy (1999-1999) 14-0
Kevin O'Shea (2008-2016) 114-10  .919
Don Coller (2017-2017) 4-8
Brian Nay (2018-2021) 30-19
OVERALL 419-274-5

 

William Smith (1956-1962) 40-23
Byron Weaver (1963-1974) 82-30-4
George Pappas (1975-1991) 125-54
Al Harants (1992-2001) 71-40
Rick Streiff (2002-2005) 19-25
Mark Haste (2006-2008) 14-19
Keith Shelton (2009-2013) 16-38
Keith Kreinhagen (2014-2016) 1-29
Kevin O'Shea (2017-2021) 25-27  .480
OVERALL 393-285-4

 

Charts show comparison of Dilley-OShea transitioning from PP to Public.  Both experienced a significant decline in winning percentage.  O'Shea certainly inherited a mess from his predecessor, but I doubt a .480 winning percentage after 5 seasons was what he was looking for or expecting.  

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6 hours ago, DT said:
Coach Record
Tom Deem (1963-1963) 0-9
Carol Purichia (1964-1968) 36-13-1
Dick Dullaghan (1969-1972) 35-5
Steve Purichia (1973-1982) 86-19
Chuck Schwanekamp (1983-1986) 47-6
Bill Tucker (1987-1987) 8-3
Tom Blanck (1988-1989) 8-10
Craig Barr (1990-1998) 73-31
Tom Dilley (1999-2002) 35-16  .686
Vince Lorenzano (2003-2016) 157-40
Rob Doyle (2017-2021) 52-16
OVERALL 537-168-1

 

Coach Record
Doug Reeser (1976-1994) 133-61
Steve Collier (1995-1998) 12-28
Kevin King (1999-2002) 13-27
Tom Dilley (2003-2012) 45-61  .424
Patrick Mallory (2013-2021) 31-62
OVERALL 234-239
John Jardine (1958-1958) 1-6
unknown (1959-2007) 231-224-4
Paul LaRocca (1963-1976) 25-7-1
Scott Muncy (1999-1999) 14-0
Kevin O'Shea (2008-2016) 114-10  .919
Don Coller (2017-2017) 4-8
Brian Nay (2018-2021) 30-19
OVERALL 419-274-5

 

William Smith (1956-1962) 40-23
Byron Weaver (1963-1974) 82-30-4
George Pappas (1975-1991) 125-54
Al Harants (1992-2001) 71-40
Rick Streiff (2002-2005) 19-25
Mark Haste (2006-2008) 14-19
Keith Shelton (2009-2013) 16-38
Keith Kreinhagen (2014-2016) 1-29
Kevin O'Shea (2017-2021) 25-27  .480
OVERALL 393-285-4

 

Charts show comparison of Dilley-OShea transitioning from PP to Public.  Both experienced a significant decline in winning percentage.  O'Shea certainly inherited a mess from his predecessor, but I doubt a .480 winning percentage after 5 seasons was what he was looking for or expecting.  

I’m giving O’Shea the benefit of the doubt for the time being.  
 

We will find out which was the anomaly soon enough:  2018 or 2021.

They had a great chance to beat that 2018 undefeated Warren squad and gave them as good of a game as anyone else in the state in the regional.

Warren ended their seasons in 2019 and 2020 by one possession.

I have a hard time seeing them winning more than 3-4 regular season games with their brutal schedule but even then, that would be tremendous progress as they weren’t event competitive last season.

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38 minutes ago, temptation said:

I’m giving O’Shea the benefit of the doubt for the time being.  
 

We will find out which was the anomaly soon enough:  2018 or 2021.

They had a great chance to beat that 2018 undefeated Warren squad and gave them as good of a game as anyone else in the state in the regional.

Warren ended their seasons in 2019 and 2020 by one possession.

I have a hard time seeing them winning more than 3-4 regular season games with their brutal schedule but even then, that would be tremendous progress as they weren’t event competitive last season.

I have not heard if NC plans to continue playing CA and CG in future non con games.  Anyone have any insight on this?  I would think it would be beneficial to NC to avoid CA and CG in future regular season play and try to pick up some winnable non conference games.  Plainfield, Whiteland, Franklin, Terre Hautes, Bloomingtons, Columbus N, Southport, Perry Meridian would all be good options.  

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10 hours ago, DT said:

O'Shea has followed the blue print of Tom Dilley.  Great PP success, failure at a big public.  I just dont see NC having enough to overcome the MIC 6 plus CG and CA.  I read something here on The GID once that inferred that O'Shea's move to NC was more for financial-pension related reasons than for taking on the monumental challenge of making NC a winner in The MIC.  And for the record, there is absolutely nothing wrong with that choice/decision.  We all make decisions through the course of our careers for different reasons and with different motivations.  After all these years at NC, OSheas teams and his program still have not developed an identity.  That is a big failure in my view, even more so than the won - loss record.

 

Let's be honest, a lot of coaches *and teachers* go from p/p to public for financial reasons, and the pension/retirement is a part of it. It's one reason I've stayed in education when I had opportunities to leave. But the way you're phrasing it is that it's a parachute job that he's not putting anything into, which couldn't be further from the truth. O'Shea isn't putting less into NC's program than he did at LCC, but it takes a lot to build up a culture where there hadn't been one. 

I hesitate to call what O'Shea has done at NC a "failure."

He took over a program that hadn't had a winning season in 11 years and one that had gone 1-29 in the three previous years. Since, he's posted three winning seasons playing one of the state's toughest schedules (they play Fishers & HSE in addition to the MIC schedule - a real meat-grinder). They struggled last year, but the body of work of North Central with O'Shea has been pretty darned good. 

Do I expect NC to become a potential perennial state championship contender? Not necessarily. NC is a really difficult school to win at. There may be no Indy-area suburban public school that gets hit harder by transfers than NC (Cathedral, Chatard & Brebeuf are all in - or right next to - NC's district and they lose a lot of students and athletes to those schools). Their district has suffered a lot of out-migration, especially to Carmel, over the last 30-40 years. While that's happening elsewhere (Pike->Brownsburg/Zionsville, Southport/Perry Meridian->Center Grove, LN->HSE/Fishers, Ben Davis->Avon/Brownsburg, more recently LN/LC->Mt. Vernon and Warren Central->Mt. Vernon/New Pal), that pattern seemed to hit NC before it hit those other communities. 

Success is measured in different ways. We tend to think of it as "are you playing on Thanksgiving weekend?" But to a lot of programs - especially in this open enrollment era - just simply being above .500 or having a chance to win a conference/sectional is a win for a lot of programs. 

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12 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

Let's be honest, a lot of coaches *and teachers* go from p/p to public for financial reasons, and the pension/retirement is a part of it. It's one reason I've stayed in education when I had opportunities to leave. But the way you're phrasing it is that it's a parachute job that he's not putting anything into, which couldn't be further from the truth. O'Shea isn't putting less into NC's program than he did at LCC, but it takes a lot to build up a culture where there hadn't been one. 

I hesitate to call what O'Shea has done at NC a "failure."

He took over a program that hadn't had a winning season in 11 years and one that had gone 1-29 in the three previous years. Since, he's posted three winning seasons playing one of the state's toughest schedules (they play Fishers & HSE in addition to the MIC schedule - a real meat-grinder). They struggled last year, but the body of work of North Central with O'Shea has been pretty darned good. 

Do I expect NC to become a potential perennial state championship contender? Not necessarily. NC is a really difficult school to win at. There may be no Indy-area suburban public school that gets hit harder by transfers than NC (Cathedral, Chatard & Brebeuf are all in - or right next to - NC's district and they lose a lot of students and athletes to those schools). Their district has suffered a lot of out-migration, especially to Carmel, over the last 30-40 years. While that's happening elsewhere (Pike->Brownsburg/Zionsville, Southport/Perry Meridian->Center Grove, LN->HSE/Fishers, Ben Davis->Avon/Brownsburg, more recently LN/LC->Mt. Vernon and Warren Central->Mt. Vernon/New Pal), that pattern seemed to hit NC before it hit those other communities. 

Success is measured in different ways. We tend to think of it as "are you playing on Thanksgiving weekend?" But to a lot of programs - especially in this open enrollment era - just simply being above .500 or having a chance to win a conference/sectional is a win for a lot of programs. 

Nailed it.

Washington Twp had (has?) one of the worst youth programs forever and not sure if there's been anything done to fix it and it may just be out of Coach O'Shea's control. Several Washington Twp kids end up playing CYO ball and ultimately settle at the three P/P's you just mentioned who are all right near NC stomping grounds. 

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2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Nailed it.

Washington Twp had (has?) one of the worst youth programs forever and not sure if there's been anything done to fix it and it may just be out of Coach O'Shea's control. Several Washington Twp kids end up playing CYO ball and ultimately settle at the three P/P's you just mentioned who are all right near NC stomping grounds. 

I think you are both spot on with your assessments.  However, I think its also fair to assume that Coach O'Shea was fully aware of all of these potential roadblocks and challenges when he took the job.  BD, WC and CA have all opened at times over the past decade and OShea certainly was qualified to coach any of them, yet he chose The MICs most bottom level performer.  Coach Streiff should also be included in this conversation, as he also did the PP/Public Shuffle, with similar results to Dilley and OShea.  People get upset and take it personally when the word "failure" is used.  But lets call it what it is.  

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2 minutes ago, DT said:

I think you are both spot on with your assessments.  However, I think its also fair to assume that Coach O'Shea was fully aware of all of these potential roadblocks and challenges when he took the job.  BD, WC and CA have all opened at times over the past decade and OShea certainly was qualified to coach any of them, yet he chose The MICs most bottom level performer.  Coach Streiff should also be included in this conversation, as he also did the PP/Public Shuffle, with similar results to Dilley and OShea.  People get upset and take it personally when the word "failure" is used.  But lets call it what it is.  

Again define "failure"? What one school deems failure, another school doesn't. Kevin O'shea and Jason Simmons were hired a year apart. While Simmons has the better resume on paper, I don't think you'd find many people who'd agree that Jason Simmons has done a better managing expectations than O'Shea. 

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