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Indianapolis Star Polls Central Indiana Football Coaches On Seeding the IHSAA Tournament


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56 minutes ago, XStar said:

I haven't a clue how wrestling works.  I'm just playing it out through the lens of a football coach who has stake in how things could be seeded and how that could influence their seeding.

I'm not for seeding at all, but if they did go to that why not just used something like Sagarin or another computer ranking system.  It could be flawed or have certain holes in it but those can always be tweaked to get to where you want.  When you start allowing humans and bias into the process you can expect trouble.  

The Coaches would use stats, they do it in Wrestling. You want some guy 150 miles away determining seeding depending solely on stats? That's not any better than the system that's in place now(ping pong balls.)

It's usually pretty obvious who should be seeded where by the coaches who actually know their teams. I'm guessing for football, Sectional seeding could be done in an hour or less in a conference call by the Coaches of the teams in the Sectional. After that level, seeding isn't really needed for Regionals, SS or State.

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2 hours ago, XStar said:

I haven't a clue how wrestling works.  I'm just playing it out through the lens of a football coach who has stake in how things could be seeded and how that could influence their seeding.

I'm not for seeding at all, but if they did go to that why not just used something like Sagarin or another computer ranking system.  It could be flawed or have certain holes in it but those can always be tweaked to get to where you want.  When you start allowing humans and bias into the process you can expect trouble.  

Sagarin doesn't take into count out of state opponents. That affects a lot of teams in the state.

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It should not be that difficult in my opinion. There definitely could be some type of mix between sagarin and coaches polling.

I believe 5A and 6A should be seeded throughout the entire tournament. 16 on the north and 16 on the south. With home field advantage going to the higher seed.

1A-4A, I believe the best way is to seed the sectionals 1-8. There is not a perfect answer, but something can be done.

Another issue that I will continue to hope for is neutral site regionals and semi states. These are big time championship games and having a neutral site is very important for these. It will create a bigger feel as well. At the least, semi state needs to be neutral!

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57 minutes ago, Indiana Fan said:

It should not be that difficult in my opinion. There definitely could be some type of mix between sagarin and coaches polling.

I believe 5A and 6A should be seeded throughout the entire tournament. 16 on the north and 16 on the south. With home field advantage going to the higher seed.

1A-4A, I believe the best way is to seed the sectionals 1-8. There is not a perfect answer, but something can be done.

Another issue that I will continue to hope for is neutral site regionals and semi states. These are big time championship games and having a neutral site is very important for these. It will create a bigger feel as well. At the least, semi state needs to be neutral!

I like the idea of neutral regionals and semistates *in theory* but in practice, the last three weeks of the tourney are where the IHSAA makes its money to fund operations (sectional revenue is split between the schools). 

The main problem with going neutral is you limit the casual fans who will travel. Every community has that large throng that will come to a home game, but a significant number of those are the "we're here for the community event" crowd and won't travel. So you essentially have two "road game" crowds, which will hold down attendance a bit. 

Think of it this way - if we have a neutral site, I'll get, say, 60% of School A's usual home crowd and 60% of School B's usual home crowd. 

If the game is played at one of the participating schools, we'll get 100% of School A's home crowd and, because of the longer distance, School B only brings 50% of its fanbase. Assume each school's usual home crowd is 2,000 ... the neutral game brings in 2,400 fans (and thus $24,000 in revenue at $10/person). The "home" game brings in 3,000 fans and thus an extra $6,000 in revenue.   

Those are hypothetical numbers, and it changes. At a smaller, community-based school with a passionate fanbase, the differential between home/away might only be 15-20% of the fanbase. At some suburban schools where there are a ton of entertainment options in town and the fanbase outside of the parents is a bit more casual, a home game might bring in 100% of the fanbase but the road game (or a bad-weather night) might only bring in 20-25%. 

In theory, I like neutral sites as much as possible (and I think it's time for neutral semistates), but there's an economic reason they don't happen. 

There's another reason, as well - finding hosts. ADs and administrators are pretty tapped out by November. Assuming a different site for each game, you'll need 24 regional venues and 12 semistate ones. That's a lot of ADs who now have to work an extra few days (and putting on a football game takes a few days of work) and squirrel together game workers (concessions, chain gang, ticket takers, PA/scoreboard, custodial). The host site's expenses are covered and there's a small stipend beyond that, but the reward is primarily in concessions. The small financial reward isn't necessarily worth the work for a lot of ADs to host a neutral game. As a result, the IHSAA would likely have to "rent" facilities at a much larger cost than the typical $150 or so beyond expenses they pay a regional or semistate host now. 

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23 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

I like the idea of neutral regionals and semistates *in theory* but in practice, the last three weeks of the tourney are where the IHSAA makes its money to fund operations (sectional revenue is split between the schools). 

The main problem with going neutral is you limit the casual fans who will travel. Every community has that large throng that will come to a home game, but a significant number of those are the "we're here for the community event" crowd and won't travel. So you essentially have two "road game" crowds, which will hold down attendance a bit. 

Think of it this way - if we have a neutral site, I'll get, say, 60% of School A's usual home crowd and 60% of School B's usual home crowd. 

If the game is played at one of the participating schools, we'll get 100% of School A's home crowd and, because of the longer distance, School B only brings 50% of its fanbase. Assume each school's usual home crowd is 2,000 ... the neutral game brings in 2,400 fans (and thus $24,000 in revenue at $10/person). The "home" game brings in 3,000 fans and thus an extra $6,000 in revenue.   

Those are hypothetical numbers, and it changes. At a smaller, community-based school with a passionate fanbase, the differential between home/away might only be 15-20% of the fanbase. At some suburban schools where there are a ton of entertainment options in town and the fanbase outside of the parents is a bit more casual, a home game might bring in 100% of the fanbase but the road game (or a bad-weather night) might only bring in 20-25%. 

In theory, I like neutral sites as much as possible (and I think it's time for neutral semistates), but there's an economic reason they don't happen. 

There's another reason, as well - finding hosts. ADs and administrators are pretty tapped out by November. Assuming a different site for each game, you'll need 24 regional venues and 12 semistate ones. That's a lot of ADs who now have to work an extra few days (and putting on a football game takes a few days of work) and squirrel together game workers (concessions, chain gang, ticket takers, PA/scoreboard, custodial). The host site's expenses are covered and there's a small stipend beyond that, but the reward is primarily in concessions. The small financial reward isn't necessarily worth the work for a lot of ADs to host a neutral game. As a result, the IHSAA would likely have to "rent" facilities at a much larger cost than the typical $150 or so beyond expenses they pay a regional or semistate host now. 

Very informative and 100% correct IMO. Thanks. 

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... and for those who follow the last point and say "but basketball has neutral sites." 

After the sectional, each basketball host has four teams (so only 1/4 of the crowd would be a "home crowd") - and there is a decent chance the host school or a nearby school from its sectional will be among the four and thus bring a "home crowd." 

Also, basketball requires a much smaller commitment. Smaller venue means fewer workers (for example, don't have to have a chain crew, there's less need to have people control sideline access, likely fewer concession stands) and they're indoors, rather than working outdoors in November for a game featuring two different teams. The amount of work it takes to put on a football game vs. a basketball game (even a *big* basketball game like a regional or semistate) is astronomically greater. 

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Come on now guys - it's really NOT THAT HARD. 

We do it in wrestling every year. You don't need sagarin or CalPreps or any other computer system. 

No anonymous voting. 

You get the head coaches in a room with a tournament director. You have a list of criteria (Head to head, common opponents, etc..) and you hash it out. 

It FINALLY gives some credence to a good regular season. 

Everyone wins in this scenario.  

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Thought from being at various venues over four plus decades: home court advantage seems much more valuable in most gyms/arenas than most football fields/stadiums I have been to at hs level. There are places that were the exception such as Evansville Reitz (but it is an awesome venue).

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16 minutes ago, ragdoll said:

The big advantage I see to home field for most hs football playoff games is having a team travel to your location, which, in my experience, can be horrific. 

Lawrenceburg definitely knows about this

 

either they are traveling 3 hours for a regional game or someone is traveling 3 hours to them.  Long bus rides 

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Is there really a differential posed by home field advantage on the overall score and outcome ... or at least in balance to the issue of neutral sites?  Conventional wisdom says "yes," however, do the numbers support that idea?  In 2021, Sagarin indicated, statistically, that home field gave an advantage of 1.28 on the odds.  I did a quick back-of-the-napkin look and, last season, there were ten regional/semi games that were decided by 10 points or less across the six classes.  In five of those, the home team won and in five the visitor won.  Of the 10 games, two were decided by 3 points or less and the split between home/visitor was 1-1. 

Granted, it's just a single season and I haven't looked at historically over time, but if seasons tend to look like last season, then there's less impact on scores/outcomes and @crimsonace1's analysis looms bigger in successfully engaging fans and also reducing the potential for glitches such as not having enough volunteer/paid coverage for concessions, security, etc. to make the post-season more successful.

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4 minutes ago, ragdoll said:

Also, in regard to the home field in playoffs, it is Bobby Cox's balls that have been determining it vs what results would be different if higher seed hosts. 

I see what you did there.

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6 hours ago, foxbat said:

Is there really a differential posed by home field advantage on the overall score and outcome ... or at least in balance to the issue of neutral sites?  Conventional wisdom says "yes," however, do the numbers support that idea?  In 2021, Sagarin indicated, statistically, that home field gave an advantage of 1.28 on the odds.  I did a quick back-of-the-napkin look and, last season, there were ten regional/semi games that were decided by 10 points or less across the six classes.  In five of those, the home team won and in five the visitor won.  Of the 10 games, two were decided by 3 points or less and the split between home/visitor was 1-1. 

Granted, it's just a single season and I haven't looked at historically over time, but if seasons tend to look like last season, then there's less impact on scores/outcomes and @crimsonace1's analysis looms bigger in successfully engaging fans and also reducing the potential for glitches such as not having enough volunteer/paid coverage for concessions, security, etc. to make the post-season more successful.

It makes a difference at LaRocca, I swear to God it does!

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On 7/25/2022 at 2:22 PM, XStar said:

I haven't a clue how wrestling works.  I'm just playing it out through the lens of a football coach who has stake in how things could be seeded and how that could influence their seeding.

I'm not for seeding at all, but if they did go to that why not just used something like Sagarin or another computer ranking system.  It could be flawed or have certain holes in it but those can always be tweaked to get to where you want.  When you start allowing humans and bias into the process you can expect trouble.  

Kinda the YEARLY 'bitch-sessions" that happen with the officials selected for various playoff assignments?  

 

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On 7/25/2022 at 9:37 PM, jets said:

Come on now guys - it's really NOT THAT HARD. 

We do it in wrestling every year. You don't need sagarin or CalPreps or any other computer system. 

No anonymous voting. 

You get the head coaches in a room with a tournament director. You have a list of criteria (Head to head, common opponents, etc..) and you hash it out. 

It FINALLY gives some credence to a good regular season. 

Everyone wins in this scenario.  

This. I'd argue that the coaches seeding has to be public, though. 

And to avoid the match-up game, only seed the best four, put No. 1 and 2 on opposite ends of the bracket, then randomly draw the opponents from the bottom half of the sectional. 

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