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2022 3A outlook


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On 9/13/2022 at 3:47 PM, DumfriesYMCA said:

I have no idea about owen valley other than they are the patriots.  And something about them being the patriots makes me want to see GS beat them lol 

But i don’t think it will be the same as playing at Heritage hills 

 

On 9/13/2022 at 3:47 PM, Esso Ayche said:

 

I have zero knowledge about Owen Valley and the WIC other than Rob Gibson must be a Patriot whisperer.  OV is 14-2 since Gibson took the reins as HC in 2021.  The three years prior to him arriving they were 4-26 and got beat in the 2019 playoffs by Princeton (yes, that Princeton).  So far this year they trounced a perpetual .500 2A Brown County by 70, beat a pretty solid 1A South Putnam by three scores, eeked out a 2-point win over 3A Indian Creek who had a pretty bad 2021 but looks to be improving, and a 50-point drubbing over Edgewood who I believe got bumped to 4A this year due to enrollment.  One Edgewood's two wins last year came over zero-win Washington 16-0, so... (no offense, Hatchet fans).  They are beating who they need to beat, but I don't know that they've faced a ton of adversity yet.  The South Putnam team was probably their biggest test so far, standing at 5th in 1A in Sagarin, 103 overall.  They are taking care of business and I think this week's matchup against undefeated 4A Northview may tell us a lot.

OV will be as competitive as any of the top dogs in Sectional 30. They return a large talented senior class from their regional team a year ago (defeated VL 14-0 in sectional championship). This is the same team that defeated the Northview squad that upset then SIAC champ Jasper in Sectional 24.

I know the WIC isn’t exactly the SIAC or PAC, but OV is the defending 30 champs and needs to be taken seriously. 

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Thanks @DumfriesYMCA and @foxbatfor the explanations regarding scheduling. I had been browsing the M@xpreps site and looked at the IN 3A rankings and the strength of schedule numbers really pop out. I know they are meaningless when teams play H2H but it really gives some context to teams records and point differential.

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1 hour ago, Just a dad said:

Thanks @DumfriesYMCA and @foxbatfor the explanations regarding scheduling. I had been browsing the M@xpreps site and looked at the IN 3A rankings and the strength of schedule numbers really pop out. I know they are meaningless when teams play H2H but it really gives some context to teams records and point differential.

You might like this one better:

http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/Indiana_division.htm#3A

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1 hour ago, Just a dad said:

Thanks @DumfriesYMCA and @foxbatfor the explanations regarding scheduling. I had been browsing the M@xpreps site and looked at the IN 3A rankings and the strength of schedule numbers really pop out. I know they are meaningless when teams play H2H but it really gives some context to teams records and point differential.

I wouldn’t put too much faith in maxpreps SoS right now.  It’s too early for it to truly show anything because 1 really bad ranked team on maxpreps will throw it all out the window.

Gibson Southern has played 3 5A schools in the first 4 weeks and then played Washington. With the way maxpreps does their SoS…the 1 game against Washington is the difference between having an SoS rating of 14.5ish and what they currently have of the -8.4.

because maxpreps has a system that goes negative, Washington graded as a -52 on their rating…and quite literally took an SoS that was top 5 for 3A and made it look like it was well below average. 
 

this is happening across the board for their rankings.  Only 4 games logged in their system (until tomorrow when it’s 5) so SoS is extremely skewed. It only takes 1 large negative team ranking to wreck a teams score and because of that most of 3A shows a negative SoS ranking 

Edited by DumfriesYMCA
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Thanks @Titan32 I do like that CalPreps better than Sagarin or MaxPreps. @DumfriesYMCA With SoS, how do they compute out of state opponents? Does it have a significant effect? If I’m just heading down a rabbit hole of nonsense (because they all use their own systems) just let me know. Being new to the state I am just looking for a way to objectively compare teams. If this is an old issue and has already discussed to death then I apologize for rehashing it. 

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8 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

Thanks @Titan32 I do like that CalPreps better than Sagarin or MaxPreps. @DumfriesYMCA With SoS, how do they compute out of state opponents? Does it have a significant effect? If I’m just heading down a rabbit hole of nonsense (because they all use their own systems) just let me know. Being new to the state I am just looking for a way to objectively compare teams. If this is an old issue and has already discussed to death then I apologize for rehashing it. 

Sagarin is the only one for the 3 that doesn’t compute out of state

 

im sure maxpreps and calpreps just have a tracker on between state matchups and what those results have been throughout history. 
 

for your team in Chatard sagarin probably the least effective to look at. I think Chatard usually has 2/3 out of state opponents. 
 

i find myself personally liking Massey Rankings the most.  They give an offensive and defensive rating on top of an overall.  The interface just isn’t the most user friendly while maxpreps is probably the easiest to maneuver 

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21 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Gibson Southern is disadvantaged in the Sagarin ratings and SoS because of their out of state schedule.

So is Chatard though tbf 

 

Outside of cathedral i would have to think the next 2 toughest opponents they have are out of state in Cincy elder and Brothers out of Michigan 

 

they just play a great instate schedule too so people don’t really say anything 

 

GS has just 1 game out of state

Chatard has I think 3 

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34 minutes ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

So is Chatard though tbf 

 

Outside of cathedral i would have to think the next 2 toughest opponents they have are out of state in Cincy elder and Brothers out of Michigan 

 

they just play a great instate schedule too so people don’t really say anything 

 

GS has just 1 game out of state

Chatard has I think 3 

Has Chatard played out of the state yet though? I was talking about currently.

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22 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

So what are the top games in 3A this week?

Chatard/Guerin 

Norwell/East Noble 

Gibson So/Heritage Hills

Owen Valley/Sullivan 

 

these were the ones that stood out to me as games to watch.  Obviously teams like west Lafayette/Southridge/Tri West/Webo and plenty of others should be followed but from my quick glance these stood out 

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1 hour ago, Just a dad said:

Thanks @DumfriesYMCA. What about specific players? Upper classmen? Under classmen? Under the radar? 

For 3A….I think last year was about as great as you can get for top players.  3A was absolutely stacked 

 

this year idk…I think every team has a few kids they can pound the table for but nobody has a kid where they can say “they are by far and away the best at their position in 3A” 

 

personally I think the best football players in the state are at the highest enrollment classes. Definitely a gap from the top of 4A to 3A/2A…which hasn’t been the case lately 

Edited by DumfriesYMCA
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1 hour ago, Just a dad said:

Thanks @DumfriesYMCA. What about specific players? Upper classmen? Under classmen? Under the radar? 

I have it on background that GS has been actively recruiting out of state for a new QB1.  He probably won't be ready this week, but should be by the time we hit the Mt Vernon/Princeton/Boonville home stretch.  The hope is that those three games will get him familiar with the offensive scheme by the time sectionals roll around.  Word is that he's not quite the speedy running QB that GS historically has had, but Coach Hart really wanted to get back to that pocket passer type of guy since we had some success with it last couple of years.  I did hear something about possibly having some eligibility issues, but I'm sure the GS admin can get that sorted out.

#ThinkFastRunFast
#FastChad
#Homeschooled

Chad.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Esso Ayche said:

I have it on background that GS has been actively recruiting out of state for a new QB1.  He probably won't be ready this week, but should be by the time we hit the Mt Vernon/Princeton/Boonville home stretch.  The hope is that those three games will get him familiar with the offensive scheme by the time sectionals roll around.  Word is that he's not quite the speedy running QB that GS historically has had, but Coach Hart really wanted to get back to that pocket passer type of guy since we had some success with it last couple of years.  I did hear something about possibly having some eligibility issues, but I'm sure the GS admin can get that sorted out.

#ThinkFastRunFast
#FastChad
#Homeschooled

Chad.jpg

I wish I had more reactions for this 

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10 minutes ago, Esso Ayche said:

I have it on background that GS has been actively recruiting out of state for a new QB1.  He probably won't be ready this week, but should be by the time we hit the Mt Vernon/Princeton/Boonville home stretch.  The hope is that those three games will get him familiar with the offensive scheme by the time sectionals roll around.  Word is that he's not quite the speedy running QB that GS historically has had, but Coach Hart really wanted to get back to that pocket passer type of guy since we had some success with it last couple of years.  I did hear something about possibly having some eligibility issues, but I'm sure the GS admin can get that sorted out.

#ThinkFastRunFast
#FastChad
#Homeschooled

Chad.jpg

Is that Igor? Ivan Renko's boy?

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Call it what ever you want @titan32. Thanks for stopping by to add to the conversation. Now, do you have something constructive to add? If not, it’s just as easy to not type words. The added bonus is that it makes you look like less of a child. While you are here though, why don’t you tell me a little bit about Gibson Southern. I’d love to learn a few things about your boys. Good luck to them this year. 

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34 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

Call it what ever you want @titan32. Thanks for stopping by to add to the conversation. Now, do you have something constructive to add? If not, it’s just as easy to not type words. The added bonus is that it makes you look like less of a child. While you are here though, why don’t you tell me a little bit about Gibson Southern. I’d love to learn a few things about your boys. Good luck to them this year. 

A new guy with 11 posts calling out a longtime booster. That’s kinda funny I swear to God it is 

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@Donnie BakerWhen the “longtime booster” has nothing positive to add I will call him out. It seems this board is ok with internet bullies. All I’ve done in this thread is ask general questions. Just trying to learn but it seems that a Chatard parent isn’t permitted to ask questions. There are quite a few helpful people in here and I appreciate their feedback. You, like Titan, don’t ow the internet. If you don’t approve of my questions then don’t read them. Take a walk, breathe some fresh air, lose the anger. 

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51 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

Call it what ever you want @titan32. Thanks for stopping by to add to the conversation. Now, do you have something constructive to add? If not, it’s just as easy to not type words. The added bonus is that it makes you look like less of a child. While you are here though, why don’t you tell me a little bit about Gibson Southern. I’d love to learn a few things about your boys. Good luck to them this year. 

Lighten up spanky, I might be an @ss but I'm no child.  Since 2012 we have been the best PUBLIC 3A school in Indiana for at least a handful of years and in the top 3 for the rest, arguably/subjectively.  I would estimate our "effective" enrollment somewhere around 500, actual enrollment 704 as compared to Chatards effective enrollment of 667, actual enrollment 667.  My oldest son lost to Chatard in Semi-State in 2015. 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/high-school/2015/11/21/semistate-chatard-beats-gibson-southern-war/76203244/

My middle son lost by 1 point to a HH team that went to the State Championship and lost to Chatard 34-3 in 2019.  I have a friend who sent his sons to Chatard.  My youngest son was the sophomore RB/SLOT on our state championship team last year and does the same thing this year but has an additional role of strong safety.  I dedicated 20 years to our youth league, middle school (the cool kids call that feeder) and strength programs in leadership and coaching roles.  I was on the search committee who interviewed Coach Hart.  I am a professional who works in Evansville, however, we chose to stay in Gibson County and commute, otherwise my kids might have attended Mater Dei or Memorial (not a big fan of the EVSC).

Here is an aerial view of the Gibson Southern and nearby communities.

 

image.thumb.png.1cad58ad214c3d512a40933694d618cb.png

 

 

 

 

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