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812FB Side by Side Computer Ranking Systems - The SIAC Glitch


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To my knowledge, the three high school computer ranking systems widely used are Sagarin, Calpreps and Massey. I thought it would be interesting to point out how each system ranked 812FB this week. I'll put down the top 20ish or so to demonstrate the stark contrast between the three. 

  Sagarin Calpreps Massey
East Central 4 1 1
Evansville Reitz 2 3 4
Bloomington South 3 4 3
Gibson Southern 9 2 2
Castle 1 9 6
Columbus North 11 5 5
Linton-Stockton 13 6 7
Evansville Mater Dei 8 15 8
Evansville North 7 12 13
Evansville Memorial 5 19 9
Vincennes Lincoln 6 11 16
Owen Valley 12 8 18
Southridge 18 7 14
Lawrenceburg 14 16 10
Columbus East 15 14 11
Terre Haute South 20 10 12
Northview 15 13 15
South Dearborn 17 18 19
North Decatur 10 21 26

Since the SIAC became a closed conference schedule I have noticed Sagarin might have a algorithm bias to the conference. I understand Sagarin doesn't include out of state schools in the code so I'm wondering if that is the reason for the apparent bias? If you take a look at a school like Gibson Southern or Southridge you'll see the assumed bias I'm pointing out. The other system I find interesting is Calpreps. It looks like that system might have the opposite effect of Sagarin with the SIAC. And Massey claims that his system doesn't do any weighting of conferences, but that might be applied to just college only. Who knows. Regardless the differences, the SIAC closed conference schedule looks to be causing a 'glitch' with the code to these ranking systems. And so that begs the question....

In your opinion, which of these systems is the most accurate? 

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There are two things that impact the ratings, although I'm not a math guy enough to figure out exactly how much they impact.

1. The rating systems use a legacy measure of some sort. I think Calpreps (and maybe Massey) have some sort of input to that effect.  For example, 2021 Evansville Central was positively affected by its 12-1 sectional championship team in 2020, even though the eye test would tell you that the program took a turn after the coaching change. It might even stretch multiple years by I'm not sure. In a conference like the Hoosier Hills, PAC, MSC, or PLAC where there is a lot of crossover early in the season this goes away.  With the SIAC, not only is the conference closed but even Sectional 24 causes issues.  Look at Central and Harrison who only played SIAC schools including sectional opponents last year. 

http://calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2007/ratings_fixes3.pl

2. I think Sagarin more than the other two is dependent on SOS.  If you think about the SIAC regular season, every win means a loss for another team.  The conference will finish 45-45 on the year.  Every opponent's opponent's SOS will be identical.  Only your SOS will be slightly different (Reitz can't play a 5-0 team and Central can't play an 0-5 team.) In other words, when Reitz played Central, the lowest SOS team will beat the highest SOS team by a considerable margin. 

If Mater Dei and Vincennes Lincoln win rounds 1 and 2 in sectionals, and Castle/North don't play each other in round 1, there will still be a lot of fluctuation.  Only then would I try to compare the SIAC to the rest of the state. 

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Gibson Southern is more hurt by playing Washington/Washington scoring 14 points in the 4th against the JV/backups on a fumble return td and KR td.  
 

sure taking a 0 for SoS on sagarin for south warren wasn’t ideal but Washington having such a low ranking + showing they scored 20 really messed with things

 

regarding the SIAC 

last year I thought that sagarin and other rankings were biased against the SIAC.  There were moments last year where good SIAC teams were ranking incredibly low.  
 

it is weird to see such a shift but ultimately I think the shift this year is more “normal”

 

while the SIAC is closed off…it’s incredibly important for them to make playoff runs.  These ranking systems need SIAC teams to play as many out of conference games in playoffs as possible…which is kinda hard when almost an entire 4A sectional is SIAC 

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Sagarin has made a significant adjustment to the weighting of the SIAC relative to years past.  The following is a chart showing the rankings of the 1st, 2nd, 9th, and 10th ranked teams after games 9 and state.  The current season ranking has the SIAC in line with where they have finished in the final rankings after state the past two years.

 

              After game 9                 Final ranking after state.

2020      80:137:289:308                  21:38:213:255  

2021      65:83:240:244                   25:26:148:150

2022      20:21:163:166  (rankings after game 5)

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26 minutes ago, Alduflux said:

Sagarin has made a significant adjustment to the weighting of the SIAC relative to years past.  The following is a chart showing the rankings of the 1st, 2nd, 9th, and 10th ranked teams after games 9 and state.  The current season ranking has the SIAC in line with where they have finished in the final rankings after state the past two years.

 

              After game 9                 Final ranking after state.

2020      80:137:289:308                  21:38:213:255  

2021      65:83:240:244                   25:26:148:150

2022      20:21:163:166  (rankings after game 5)

What were the rankings like before the SIAC became 10 teams 

 

similar to 2022 currently? 

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One big difference this year is the strength of the middle.  I didn't look at it in my chart above.  Teams 5-6 are a good deal stronger then year's past.  It could be the product of a deep conference or it could just be comparing week 5 to week 9.  The middle might weaken out by week 9 this year.

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2 hours ago, Alduflux said:

One big difference this year is the strength of the middle.  I didn't look at it in my chart above.  Teams 5-6 are a good deal stronger then year's past.  It could be the product of a deep conference or it could just be comparing week 5 to week 9.  The middle might weaken out by week 9 this year.

The other thing is the ‘traditional powers’ of the 8-team SIAC have a backloaded schedule. Reitz still has Castle and Memorial on the schedule. Plus MD/Reitz and Castle/Memorial are always week 9 matchups. And usually Bosse/Harrison in week 9 hurt each other’s SOS for the final standings. 

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