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SIAC vs. SAC Sagarin Ratings


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I believe this has been discussed before, but does anyone have any idea why the Sagarin Ratings seem to have such a discrepancy dealing with the SAC and the SIAC? Both are closed conferences, but Sagarin seems to overrate the SIAC while underrating the SAC. For example, taking the teams currently leading each conference, Reitz is rated #9 overall in the state (and 1st in the predictor), while Carroll is 50th in the state and #74 in the predictor. Does this make sense to anyone? 

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1 minute ago, scarab527 said:

I believe this has been discussed before, but does anyone have any idea why the Sagarin Ratings seem to have such a discrepancy dealing with the SAC and the SIAC? Both are closed conferences, but Sagarin seems to overrate the SIAC while underrating the SAC. For example, taking the teams currently leading each conference, Reitz is rated #9 overall in the state (and 1st in the predictor), while Carroll is 50th in the state and #74 in the predictor. Does this make sense to anyone? 

The last 2 years the SIAC has been pushed down on sagarin for their rankings.  This year they seem up a lot…especially when I’m looking at Vincennes.  They are very good this year but they are currently ranked higher than Chatard, West Lafayette, and Gibson Southern in 3A. 
 

Reitz is listed as #9….which….maybe….they look awfully convincing this year and 4A is up…. but I’m not convinced they can beat Memorial and I’m not sure anyone is pounding the table saying this memorial team is a top 10 team in the state.  
 

when Memorial was a top 10 team in the state a few years back they were steamrolling their way through the SIAC and Reitz hasn’t been that level of dominant. 
 

i think the postseason will fix sort this out.  7 teams in the top 67 overall….which is basically the top 20% of the entire state.  Something is going to give for sure.  

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17 minutes ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

The last 2 years the SIAC has been pushed down on sagarin for their rankings.  This year they seem up a lot…especially when I’m looking at Vincennes.  They are very good this year but they are currently ranked higher than Chatard, West Lafayette, and Gibson Southern in 3A. 
 

Reitz is listed as #9….which….maybe….they look awfully convincing this year and 4A is up…. but I’m not convinced they can beat Memorial and I’m not sure anyone is pounding the table saying this memorial team is a top 10 team in the state.  
 

when Memorial was a top 10 team in the state a few years back they were steamrolling their way through the SIAC and Reitz hasn’t been that level of dominant. 
 

i think the postseason will fix sort this out.  7 teams in the top 67 overall….which is basically the top 20% of the entire state.  Something is going to give for sure.  

I just don't understand how simultaneously one closed conference is overrated while the other is underrated. The ratings should deal with both in the same way. This makes it seem like there is a hole in the system. 

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7 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

I just don't understand how simultaneously one closed conference is overrated while the other is underrated. The ratings should deal with both in the same way. This makes it seem like there is a hole in the system. 

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Carroll at 6-0 in 6A and only 50th is very puzzling.  
 

more puzzling is how the SIAC has that SoS ranking.  That SoS for the SIAC is basically like saying the SIAC plays the equivalent to a low 6A schedule and that’s simply not the case 

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6 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Sagarins system can't deal with unconnected conferences until they become connected in the playoffs. His ratings are based on common opponents. 

Yes, that has been established. But then why are two unconnected conferences rated so wildly differently? They should either both be overrated or both underrated. One being overrated and the other underrated doesn't make any sense. 

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5 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Yes, that has been established. But then why are two unconnected conferences rated so wildly differently? They should either both be overrated or both underrated. One being overrated and the other underrated doesn't make any sense. 

I agree something seems off.

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3 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Yes, that has been established. But then why are two unconnected conferences rated so wildly differently? They should either both be overrated or both underrated. One being overrated and the other underrated doesn't make any sense. 

Especially considering the many similarities between the two.  I think the SAC is a slightly larger but overall they have similar dynamics of a mix of school sizes with private schools in the mix, based around small cities that are secondary to Indy 

 

The two conferences having a similar setup of being closed off for football is just the icing on the cake.  Practically sister conferences if you will 

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19 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Yes, that has been established. But then why are two unconnected conferences rated so wildly differently? They should either both be overrated or both underrated. One being overrated and the other underrated doesn't make any sense. 

He's using different datapoints to estimate how to weigh them. He's probably looking at previous year's tournament success or something similar. 

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21 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

He's using different datapoints to estimate how to weigh them. He's probably looking at previous year's tournament success or something similar. 

Using different data points would seem to contradict the whole purpose of the Sagarin Ratings to begin with. If teams aren't being judged on the same criteria, how useful are they? 

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47 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Using different data points would seem to contradict the whole purpose of the Sagarin Ratings to begin with. If teams aren't being judged on the same criteria, how useful are they? 

Not useful for unconnected conferences. However, the rankings within a conference should be A OK.

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As others have stated Sagarin cannot compare teams that are not connected.  Both conferences will not be connected until the playoffs.  Last year the same happened only in reverse.  The SAC was over-weighted during the season and the SIAC was under-weighted.  Playoff results will have outsized influence on both conferences final rating.

Last year's rankings for both conferences top five teams were as follows:

                         After week 9                           After state

SAC                3,8,11,12,19                                20,48,60,68,70     (yes, Sagarin thought 5 of the top 20 regular season teams were in the SAC)

SIAC               65, 83, 88, 113, 137                  25, 26, 31, 44, 69

 

One year ago there was a discussion on this board about why the SAC was valued so highly.

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I really appreciate that this thread was created and agree that there's something going on with Sagarin's algorithm. Last week I posted about what I call the Sagarin SIAC Glitch. It appears there's a weighted bias to the SIAC in his algorithm compared to the SAC. And it really makes it difficult for data guys like myself to evaluate. 😉 But I digress. 

Here are all the schools in both conferences and how they sit with the computer systems (Sagarin, Calpreps, Massey). 

School Sagarin Calpreps Massey Average Ranking
Reitz 9 22 33 21.3
Carroll 50 15 12 25.6
Snider 55 27 26 36
Mater Dei 23 65 55 47.6
North Side 81 37 40 52.6
Castle 31 69 58 52.6
Vincennes 21 61 82 54.6
Ev. North 34 78 86 66
Memorial 54 87 60 67
Dwenger 124 63 43 76.6
Jasper 67 102 79 82.6
Homestead 118 79 54 83.6
Luers 140 91 64 98.3
Harrison 108 149 142 133
Wayne 203 141 112 152
Concordia 228 165 106 166.3
Bosse 149 184 179 170.6
Central 155 206 174 178.3
Northrop 248 195 135 192.6
South Side 254 227 192 224.3

 

I've highlighted some numbers that jump out to me. The discrepancy of Carroll and Snider is extreme and tells me that the formula/algorithm is either flawed or bias. Having been to a lot of the games in the SIAC area I can say with confidence that I don't think Vincennes is a top 21 school in the entire state. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, 812FB said:

I really appreciate that this thread was created and agree that there's something going on with Sagarin's algorithm. Last week I posted about what I call the Sagarin SIAC Glitch. It appears there's a weighted bias to the SIAC in his algorithm compared to the SAC. And it really makes it difficult for data guys like myself to evaluate. 😉 But I digress. 

Here are all the schools in both conferences and how they sit with the computer systems (Sagarin, Calpreps, Massey). 

School Sagarin Calpreps Massey Average Ranking
Reitz 9 22 33 21.3
Carroll 50 15 12 25.6
Snider 55 27 26 36
Mater Dei 23 65 55 47.6
North Side 81 37 40 52.6
Castle 31 69 58 52.6
Vincennes 21 61 82 54.6
Ev. North 34 78 86 66
Memorial 54 87 60 67
Dwenger 124 63 43 76.6
Jasper 67 102 79 82.6
Homestead 118 79 54 83.6
Luers 140 91 64 98.3
Harrison 108 149 142 133
Wayne 203 141 112 152
Concordia 228 165 106 166.3
Bosse 149 184 179 170.6
Central 155 206 174 178.3
Northrop 248 195 135 192.6
South Side 254 227 192 224.3

 

I've highlighted some numbers that jump out to me. The discrepancy of Carroll and Snider is extreme and tells me that the formula/algorithm is either flawed or bias. Having been to a lot of the games in the SIAC area I can say with confidence that I don't think Vincennes is a top 21 school in the entire state. 

 

 

The difference for homestead/LCC is also a pretty large change 

Edited by DumfriesYMCA
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16 hours ago, Alduflux said:

As others have stated Sagarin cannot compare teams that are not connected.  Both conferences will not be connected until the playoffs.  Last year the same happened only in reverse.  The SAC was over-weighted during the season and the SIAC was under-weighted.  Playoff results will have outsized influence on both conferences final rating.

Last year's rankings for both conferences top five teams were as follows:

                         After week 9                           After state

SAC                3,8,11,12,19                                20,48,60,68,70     (yes, Sagarin thought 5 of the top 20 regular season teams were in the SAC)

SIAC               65, 83, 88, 113, 137                  25, 26, 31, 44, 69

 

One year ago there was a discussion on this board about why the SAC was valued so highly.

Yes, we all know that Sagarin cannot compare closed conferences until they play noncon opponents. That doesn't explain why two closed conferences are being treated so differently. This just shows the problem has been ongoing. The fact that it was reversed last year makes it even more bizarre. 

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7 hours ago, scarab527 said:

Yes, we all know that Sagarin cannot compare closed conferences until they play noncon opponents. That doesn't explain why two closed conferences are being treated so differently. This just shows the problem has been ongoing. The fact that it was reversed last year makes it even more bizarre. 

Closed conferences should be treated differently.  Case in point, a closed conference of the mega football schools (Cathedral, Center Grove, etc) should not have the same strength of schedule as a closed conference of 1a schools.  Sagarin is probably using some aspect of last years playoff results to weight the conferences.  The SAC did not have as much playoff success in 2021 as in 2020.  The SIAC did better in 2021 then in 2020.  The "switching" of their conference strength is probably related to playoff performance.  No it is not perfect but unfortunately the only way to connect the conferences in season is to use something from last year to compare them.

The fact it was reversed is explained by the difference in playoff performance changing from 2020 to 2021

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12 hours ago, Alduflux said:

Closed conferences should be treated differently.  Case in point, a closed conference of the mega football schools (Cathedral, Center Grove, etc) should not have the same strength of schedule as a closed conference of 1a schools.  Sagarin is probably using some aspect of last years playoff results to weight the conferences.  The SAC did not have as much playoff success in 2021 as in 2020.  The SIAC did better in 2021 then in 2020.  The "switching" of their conference strength is probably related to playoff performance.  No it is not perfect but unfortunately the only way to connect the conferences in season is to use something from last year to compare them.

The fact it was reversed is explained by the difference in playoff performance changing from 2020 to 2021

A lot of folk, including myself, enjoy computer rating systems (CRS). For me, it's more of a statistical data driven aspect thing that I enjoy about it.

Switching gears here, if seeding becomes a reality instead of a desire for us fans I have a feeling this currently flawed CRS will be what is used to determine the seedings. I say that because Sagarin is a Hoosier. I understand seeding might just be pipe dream but I also never thought in a million years we would see the success factor rule. 

Curious, does anyone know if other states use a CRS to determine playoffs and/or seeding?  

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6 hours ago, 812FB said:

A lot of folk, including myself, enjoy computer rating systems (CRS). For me, it's more of a statistical data driven aspect thing that I enjoy about it.

Switching gears here, if seeding becomes a reality instead of a desire for us fans I have a feeling this currently flawed CRS will be what is used to determine the seedings. I say that because Sagarin is a Hoosier. I understand seeding might just be pipe dream but I also never thought in a million years we would see the success factor rule. 

Curious, does anyone know if other states use a CRS to determine playoffs and/or seeding?  

If we move to seeding it would entirely be up to the coaches of the given class.  Maybe they break it down by regional or semi state…who knows

 

but when coaches are asked about the topic they often can heard saying something along the lines of “if 15 wrestling coaches can sit down and seed an entire tournament across multiple weight classes with a hundred kids then I think it’s possible for football coaches to sort out seeding a sectional” 

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On 9/27/2022 at 11:20 AM, 812FB said:

I really appreciate that this thread was created and agree that there's something going on with Sagarin's algorithm. Last week I posted about what I call the Sagarin SIAC Glitch. It appears there's a weighted bias to the SIAC in his algorithm compared to the SAC. And it really makes it difficult for data guys like myself to evaluate. 😉 But I digress. 

Here are all the schools in both conferences and how they sit with the computer systems (Sagarin, Calpreps, Massey). 

School Sagarin Calpreps Massey Average Ranking
Reitz 9 22 33 21.3
Carroll 50 15 12 25.6
Snider 55 27 26 36
Mater Dei 23 65 55 47.6
North Side 81 37 40 52.6
Castle 31 69 58 52.6
Vincennes 21 61 82 54.6
Ev. North 34 78 86 66
Memorial 54 87 60 67
Dwenger 124 63 43 76.6
Jasper 67 102 79 82.6
Homestead 118 79 54 83.6
Luers 140 91 64 98.3
Harrison 108 149 142 133
Wayne 203 141 112 152
Concordia 228 165 106 166.3
Bosse 149 184 179 170.6
Central 155 206 174 178.3
Northrop 248 195 135 192.6
South Side 254 227 192 224.3

 

I've highlighted some numbers that jump out to me. The discrepancy of Carroll and Snider is extreme and tells me that the formula/algorithm is either flawed or bias. Having been to a lot of the games in the SIAC area I can say with confidence that I don't think Vincennes is a top 21 school in the entire state. 

 

 

I'll preface by saying I too find it a little shocking to see Lincoln as high as they are when compared to the best in the state (but not necessarily complaining haha). The Alices are a legit threat in 3A no doubt, but there's a lot left to prove just in the SIAC alone, not to mention Sectional 30.

But to question VL's ranking you absolutely have to look at Reitz at #9, since the two teams are so closely tied together.  VL's near defeat of the Panthers in Week 2 seems to have carried A LOT of weight. Reitz faces Memorial this Friday followed by VL/Memorial in Week 8...so we're about to get a more realistic picture of this. 

Overall though I'm not about to question Sagarin's feel for the SIAC, as they've been low balled the past two years (as explained by @Alduflux). Me personally, I would knock off 10-15 points for SIAC teams and that would put you in the ballpark.

Massey has got it all wrong. No way that Reitz and VL are 50 spots apart. 

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6 hours ago, SEAL_63 said:

I'll preface by saying I too find it a little shocking to see Lincoln as high as they are when compared to the best in the state (but not necessarily complaining haha). The Alices are a legit threat in 3A no doubt, but there's a lot left to prove just in the SIAC alone, not to mention Sectional 30.

But to question VL's ranking you absolutely have to look at Reitz at #9, since the two teams are so closely tied together.  VL's near defeat of the Panthers in Week 2 seems to have carried A LOT of weight. Reitz faces Memorial this Friday followed by VL/Memorial in Week 8...so we're about to get a more realistic picture of this. 

Overall though I'm not about to question Sagarin's feel for the SIAC, as they've been low balled the past two years (as explained by @Alduflux). Me personally, I would knock off 10-15 points for SIAC teams and that would put you in the ballpark.

Massey has got it all wrong. No way that Reitz and VL are 50 spots apart. 

I agree VL is better than 82nd in the state.

 

on the Nick Hart show this week he was talking about sectional 30 a little bit and said something along the lines of “I don’t know how VL can have the schedule they have and not be ranked in the polls.  To me they are a top 5 3A in the state” 

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On 9/27/2022 at 10:20 AM, 812FB said:

Here are all the schools in both conferences and how they sit with the computer systems (Sagarin, Calpreps, Massey). 

School Sagarin Calpreps Massey Average Ranking
Reitz 9 22 33 21.3
Carroll 50 15 12 25.6
Snider 55 27 26 36
Mater Dei 23 65 55 47.6
North Side 81 37 40 52.6
Castle 31 69 58 52.6
Vincennes 21 61 82 54.6
Ev. North 34 78 86 66
Memorial 54 87 60 67
Dwenger 124 63 43 76.6
Jasper 67 102 79 82.6
Homestead 118 79 54 83.6
Luers 140 91 64 98.3
Harrison 108 149 142 133
Wayne 203 141 112 152
Concordia 228 165 106 166.3
Bosse 149 184 179 170.6
Central 155 206 174 178.3
Northrop 248 195 135 192.6
South Side 254 227 192 224.3

Correction on this list. It looks like Mater Dei and Vincennes should be switched with the Sagarin ranking. I must have fat fingered it or something. My apologies. Regardless, I've seen both teams play down here and neither of them probably don't match up well with a 25 ranked Penn who's only losses were to Cathedral and St. X (Cincy, OH). I would even venture to say Carroll and Snider on this list would probably give the entire SIAC a run for their money.

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11 hours ago, SEAL_63 said:

I'll preface by saying I too find it a little shocking to see Lincoln as high as they are when compared to the best in the state (but not necessarily complaining haha). The Alices are a legit threat in 3A no doubt, but there's a lot left to prove just in the SIAC alone, not to mention Sectional 30.

But to question VL's ranking you absolutely have to look at Reitz at #9, since the two teams are so closely tied together.  VL's near defeat of the Panthers in Week 2 seems to have carried A LOT of weight. Reitz faces Memorial this Friday followed by VL/Memorial in Week 8...so we're about to get a more realistic picture of this. 

Overall though I'm not about to question Sagarin's feel for the SIAC, as they've been low balled the past two years (as explained by @Alduflux). Me personally, I would knock off 10-15 points for SIAC teams and that would put you in the ballpark.

Massey has got it all wrong. No way that Reitz and VL are 50 spots apart. 

Yeah no knock on your Alices was intended. You got a solid ball club up there in Knox County. That QB is something special. And I agree, I personally think Sagarin has weighed the SIAC 10-15 points too high. 

19 hours ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

If we move to seeding it would entirely be up to the coaches of the given class.  Maybe they break it down by regional or semi state…who knows

 

but when coaches are asked about the topic they often can heard saying something along the lines of “if 15 wrestling coaches can sit down and seed an entire tournament across multiple weight classes with a hundred kids then I think it’s possible for football coaches to sort out seeding a sectional” 

Thanks for sharing. That would make sense. 

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The Sagarin top ten by predictor are as follows after week 7

1 Reitz

2 VL

3 Castle

4 Mater Dei

5 E North

6 Memorial

7 Brownsburg

8 Jasper

9 Evansville Harrison

10 Center Grove

 

Bosse and Central need to start carrying their weight and kick those paperweights Brownsburg and CG out of the top ten.  I can't imagine why anyone would think the SIAC is weighted incorrectly. 😁

Edited by Alduflux
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