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Cinderella is a myth


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1 minute ago, Basementbias said:

Absolutely!

Also instead of a zoom call, have the coaches anonymously seed the sectionals with a secure return format from 1-8 or 1-4. Then have the IHSAA determine the top 4 in 1-8 sectionals & top 2 on 1-4 sectionals based on those anonymous results. Definitely will need tie breaker scenarios in place going into it. Then have the brackets revealed with pairings show. Maybe have one where the top seeds are revealed beforehand. 

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10 minutes ago, Basementbias said:

Also instead of a zoom call, have the coaches anonymously seed the sectionals with a secure return format from 1-8 or 1-4. Then have the IHSAA determine the top 4 in 1-8 sectionals & top 2 on 1-4 sectionals based on those anonymous results. Definitely will need tie breaker scenarios in place going into it. Then have the brackets revealed with pairings show. Maybe have one where the top seeds are revealed beforehand. 

Nah no anonymous stuff


if we are going to have coaches seed it then they gotta be willing to put their name by their seeding.  
 

As for tiebreakers….I think it would be pretty cool if they put the tiebreaker as “most points based on IFCA coaches poll over the entire season)

I know it’s a bit of a wild idea….but it would actually mean that a poll matters.  Every week when they cast their top 10 or whatever it is…it will matter and not just be a talking point. 

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18 minutes ago, foxbat said:

And therein lies the problem.  It's not whether a computer can do the math, it's the question of the algorithm employed ...  and, as this thread has shown, we haven't even gotten anywhere close to algorithms yet.

I cosine this hypotenuse.

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17 minutes ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

Nah no anonymous stuff


if we are going to have coaches seed it then they gotta be willing to put their name by their seeding.  
 

As for tiebreakers….I think it would be pretty cool if they put the tiebreaker as “most points based on IFCA coaches poll over the entire season)

I know it’s a bit of a wild idea….but it would actually mean that a poll matters.  Every week when they cast their top 10 or whatever it is…it will matter and not just be a talking point. 

Now you've done it.  If you thought there were arguments around Sagarin for qualifications, you know the sentiments, and "discussions," that surround the polls.  At least you didn't suggest the AP poll.

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4 minutes ago, 812FB said:

Is Norwell the overall #1 seed for the entire tournament?

Using Sagarin, yes Norwell is the #1 rated team in 3A.

I use Sagarin because its readily available and it's unique only to Indiana High School football.

If a playoff format was ever implemented using a predictive rating measure, I highly doubt Sagarin would be used as it doesn't factor in out of state competition. Massey and Calpreps do however. 

Edited by Footballking16
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29 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Now you've done it.  If you thought there were arguments around Sagarin for qualifications, you know the sentiments, and "discussions," that surround the polls.  At least you didn't suggest the AP poll.

Lol

 

i mean…I just find it weird that coaches always say “polls mean nothing” but yet they are all voting in the IFCA on them every week. 
 

might as well make them good for something.

 

but this will probably never happen so I can float out all the wild ideas I want 

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2 minutes ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

Lol

 

i mean…I just find it weird that coaches always say “polls mean nothing” but yet they are all voting in the IFCA on them every week. 
 

might as well make them good for something.

 

but this will probably never happen so I can float out all the wild ideas I want 

Like the guys at the Oscars who aren't favorites to win their category.  They always say something like, "It's an honor just to be nominated amongst all of these talented people." :classic_smile:

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4 minutes ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

Lol

 

i mean…I just find it weird that coaches always say “polls mean nothing” but yet they are all voting in the IFCA on them every week. 
 

might as well make them good for something.

 

but this will probably never happen so I can float out all the wild ideas I want 

Do all HS coaches vote in the IFCA poll or only the district heads?

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13 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Using Sagarin, yes Norwell is the #1 rated team in 3A.

I use Sagarin because its readily available and it's unique only to Indiana High School football.

If a playoff format was ever implemented using a predictive rating measure, I highly doubt Sagarin would be used as it doesn't factor in out of state competition. Massey and Calpreps do however. 

OK, that makes sense. I was wondering why you were using Sagarin as an example. I appreciate your response here. Frankly, I think all systems have their defects here in the state of Indiana. I'll cover that below. I personally could be sold on a 'take an average' of the three systems approach. However, if I'm being completely honest, I could really be sold to a 'committee of coaches' (CoC) approach. I say this because I tend to think coaches have a better pulse on the IHSAA football landscape then some dudes in the Bay Area, CA or Jefferson City, TN. But more importantly the CoC will cover the computer ranking system (CRS) defect. 

The major issue with using a CRS in the state of Indiana is there are two metro areas/conferences (SIAC and SAC) that have self-contained units. This is basically the statistical math kiss of death for any statistician on the planet. They can't solve this problem effectively. However this can be effectively solved by subjective pollsters or a CoC.

Sidenote: 
Man, using Sagarin, Gibson Southern would get the shaft at an overall 7 seed when they're ranked 3 in both Calpreps and Massey. Instead of hosting a regional game they're most likely on the road.

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1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

Using Sagarin, yes Norwell is the #1 rated team in 3A.

I use Sagarin because its readily available and it's unique only to Indiana High School football.

If a playoff format was ever implemented using a predictive rating measure, I highly doubt Sagarin would be used as it doesn't factor in out of state competition. Massey and Calpreps do however. 

Off topic but I think Norwell is barely top 5 in 3A…(ducks head on way out).

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14 minutes ago, 812FB said:

OK, that makes sense. I was wondering why you were using Sagarin as an example. I appreciate your response here. Frankly, I think all systems have their defects here in the state of Indiana. I'll cover that below. I personally could be sold on a 'take an average' of the three systems approach. However, if I'm being completely honest, I could really be sold to a 'committee of coaches' (CoC) approach. I say this because I tend to think coaches have a better pulse on the IHSAA football landscape than some dudes in the Bay Area, CA or Jefferson City, TN. But more importantly the CoC will cover the computer ranking system (CRS) defect. 

Computer polls are only imputing and calculating data. There’s no bias in the algorithms like you see with the human element. A computer model is much more likely to spit out an accurate reading for a team like Luers despite being 4-5 than a coach in Southern Indiana who has nothing to go by other than W-L record. You’re taking the bias out of the equation by using computers. Computers aren’t a 100% science but they’re generally better than the human element.

 

18 minutes ago, 812FB said:

The major issue with using a CRS in the state of Indiana is there are two metro areas/conferences (SIAC and SAC) that have self-contained units. This is basically the statistical math kiss of death for any statistician on the planet. They can't solve this problem effectively. However this can be effectively solved by subjective pollsters or a CoC.

I’ve always proposed in my format that a tenth regular season game be added (for those detractors who think that high school athletes are somehow entitled to a tenth game) and the field then be effectively cut in half. That leaves landlocked conferences like the SIAC and SAC one OOC game a year.

 

26 minutes ago, 812FB said:

Sidenote: 
Man, using Sagarin, Gibson Southern would get the shaft at an overall 7 seed when they're ranked 3 in both Calpreps and Massey. Instead of hosting a regional game they're most likely on the road.

Sagarin unfortunately does not factor in GS win over the team from Kentucky or any of the data from the teams they played. Hurts GS in this scenario. It significantly helped a team like Chatard in the Massey Poll who played Elder and Christian Brothers, two teams who are both highly rated in national polls.

13 minutes ago, temptation said:

Off topic but I think Norwell is barely top 5 in 3A…(ducks head on way out).

Don’t know the first thing about Norwell. Was shocked West Lafayette wasn’t #1. Can tell that out of state opponents not being factored into Chatard and GS Sagarin equation has helped Norwell.

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3 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Computer polls are only imputing and calculating data. There’s no bias in the algorithms like you see with the human element. A computer model is much more likely to spit out an accurate reading for a team like Luers despite being 4-5 than a coach in Southern Indiana who has nothing to go by other than W-L record. You’re taking the bias out of the equation by using computers. Computers aren’t a 100% science but they’re generally better than the human element.

 

I’ve always proposed in my format that a tenth regular season game be added (for those detractors who think that high school athletes are somehow entitled to a tenth game) and the field then be effectively cut in half. That leaves landlocked conferences like the SIAC and SAC one OOC game a year.

 

Sagarin unfortunately does not factor in GS win over the team from Kentucky or any of the data from the teams they played. Hurts GS in this scenario. It significantly helped a team like Chatard in the Massey Poll who played Elder and Christian Brothers, two teams who are both highly rated in national polls.

Don’t know the first thing about Norwell. Was shocked West Lafayette wasn’t #1. Can tell that out of state opponents not being factored into Chatard and GS Sagarin equation has helped Norwell.

I slept on them a bit in my weekly poll.  Their SOS was a limiting factor but actually better than I had though when I went back and looked.

I think they are borderline top 50.

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I have always appreciated a simple approach to the tournament

1. A team must have 4 wins to qualify (only two results of a game are possible).  You know what you have to do.

2. The playoffs would start the same week of our second round of the sections in order to get the pairings together based on the teams that qualified (the classes may not be equal, but refer to rule 1)

3. ADs would adjust their schedules accordingly.  It may take a couple of years, but the schedules will work out.

4. The issue would be teams that get their sixth loss may tank games. You would hope that wouldn't happen, but that is the reality of any situation.

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20 minutes ago, temptation said:

I slept on them a bit in my weekly poll.  Their SOS was a limiting factor but actually better than I had though when I went back and looked.

I think they are borderline top 50.

Ouch. 

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

Ouch. 

The poll will extend into the postseason.  They’ll get their shot against the sectional 28 winner to prove me wrong and even a close loss validates your skepticism.

Their loss against Columbia City (who was also fringe top 50 all season) didn’t help their cause.

 

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11 minutes ago, temptation said:

The poll will extend into the postseason.  They’ll get their shot against the sectional 28 winner to prove me wrong and even a close loss validates your skepticism.

Their loss against Columbia City (who was also fringe top 50 all season) didn’t help their cause.

 

Valid. Small town schools have the opportunity to gain their respect in the tournament. 

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It's been awhile, but since my AD is on vacation and won't chastise me for posting what I think here here is my thought.

We should take our sectionals and play a round robin.  Then seed the sectional from that data.  The last games of the season would be against a natural rival who lives close by.  I would love to see our Rockies take on the Glenn Falcons or the CMA Eagles.  Both of those game make more sense than the current games against East Noble and Kokomo.

Each school still gets that one opponent who they love to hate or just have someone who isn't too far away and save the kids a trip.  

But more importantly you get true seedings for the sectional.  After that play the rest of the rest of the tournament on the home field of the team who plays the least number of away games as we currently do.  Or if you want to use a computer ranking then let the sags determine the home team.  

Having coaches vote is not the answer.  I agree with FootballKing16 in that the bias would creep in and not give a best case seeding.  

Let's be honest, the conference championships are a joke because in most cases the same teams win them every year.  So drop conferences and play a round robin in each sectional to seed the tourney.  How much fun would that be?

Edited by Plymouthfan91
misspell
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22 minutes ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

It's been awhile, but since my AD is on vacation and won't chastise me for posting what I think here here is my thought.

We should take our sectionals and play a round robin.  Then seed the sectional from that data.  The last games of the season would be against a natural rival who lives close by.  I would love to see our Rockies take on the Glenn Falcons or the CMA Eagles.  Both of those game make more sense than the current games against East Noble and Kokomo.

Each school still gets that one opponent who they love to hate or just have someone who isn't too far away and save the kids a trip.  

But more importantly you get true seedings for the sectional.  After that play the rest of the rest of the tournament on the home field of the team who plays the least number of away games as we currently do.  Or if you want to use a computer ranking then let the sags determine the home team.  

Having coaches vote is not the answer.  I agree with FootballKing16 in that the bias would creep in and not give a best case seeding.  

Let's be honest, the conference championships are a joke because in most cases the same teams win them every year.  So drop conferences and play a round robin in each sectional to seed the tourney.  How much fun would that be?

Just for the record I haven't even read your post. I read first paragraph and literally laughed. Just wanted to make that clear so it doesnt come across like i think your post is a joke. Now....ill read the rest. 🤣

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1 hour ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

It's been awhile, but since my AD is on vacation and won't chastise me for posting what I think here here is my thought.

We should take our sectionals and play a round robin.  Then seed the sectional from that data.  The last games of the season would be against a natural rival who lives close by.  I would love to see our Rockies take on the Glenn Falcons or the CMA Eagles.  Both of those game make more sense than the current games against East Noble and Kokomo.

Each school still gets that one opponent who they love to hate or just have someone who isn't too far away and save the kids a trip.  

But more importantly you get true seedings for the sectional.  After that play the rest of the rest of the tournament on the home field of the team who plays the least number of away games as we currently do.  Or if you want to use a computer ranking then let the sags determine the home team.  

Having coaches vote is not the answer.  I agree with FootballKing16 in that the bias would creep in and not give a best case seeding.  

Let's be honest, the conference championships are a joke because in most cases the same teams win them every year.  So drop conferences and play a round robin in each sectional to seed the tourney.  How much fun would that be?

A very novel idea, to be sure. A snowball's chance in Hades of happening, but I applaud the originality (I think? At least I don't think I've ever heard of such a system).

At first I thought you meant something like a typical  or even abbreviated regular season followed by a pool play type of scenario to seed the overall tournament. Again, novel, and fun to think about and discuss. But I've a better chance of shacking up with upcoming divorcee Giselle Brady than this being implemented.

Appreciate the idea and you can throwing it out there tho! Sure beats the crap outta me just scratchin my butt and hoping everything figures itself out. Fodder for discussion if good.

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What’s wrong with adopting the Illinois format? Fully transparent no outside  rankings used (Sagarin). What’s even more intriguing with the Illinois format is that you don’t know what class you are till the qualifiers are determined. 
sorry luers you’d probably have to switch conferences under this firmst

source

https://www.ihsa.org/data/fb/playoffs.htm

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16 hours ago, 812FB said:

Boss, which one of these programs effectively solved the problem?
3A class rank of Norwell - Sagarin: 1 Calpreps: 6 Massey: 4

 

The answer is 3.66.  

Or 42.  Take your pick.

 

Edited by Muda69
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