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Cinderella is a myth


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When I see this discussion about "undeserving" teams who have somehow weaseled their way into the tournament and, even when they perform, are still undeserving, I just envision the 50% selection process in the old ping pong room ...

 

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This thread had been really quiet ... and I think I figured out why.

At the start of the tournament, Monrovia was listed as 45th in Class 3A ... entering the post-season at 2-7.

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In the post season, before tonight, they had beaten three teams:

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Going into tonight's game, they were only given a paltry chance to win:

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At the start of the post season, Owen Valley, who entered the post season at 9-0 and tonight's game with Monrovia at an an impressive 12-0 was listed as 12th in Class 3A.

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After tonight ......

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it looks like Monrovia will get at least one more dance at the ball next week.

 

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Cinderella is alive!!! After 7 straight losses, MONROVIA RIPS OFF 4 STRAIGHT POSTSEASON WINS.

Let's finally put this topic to bed. The IHSAA will NEVER, EVER, EVER go back to an invite-only football tournament. 

And for all of those geniuses who say the IHSAA can simply use Sagarin/computers/committee/whatever to determine who gets in, I ask this question. How do you factor in games vs out-of-state opponents? Chatard went 5-4 with 2 out-of-state losses. Do they get qualify because you make the ASSUMPTION that those teams must be really good since they beat Chatard?

Or how about 4-5 FW Luers? They play all conference, all much bigger foes. So would 4-5 Luers qualify due to strength of schedule while some 8-1 team sits at home?

So congratulations to 2-7, now 6-7 MONROVIA. And 8-4 Castle too. 

 

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5 hours ago, slice60 said:

Cinderella is alive!!! After 7 straight losses, MONROVIA RIPS OFF 4 STRAIGHT POSTSEASON WINS.

Let's finally put this topic to bed. The IHSAA will NEVER, EVER, EVER go back to an invite-only football tournament. 

And for all of those geniuses who say the IHSAA can simply use Sagarin/computers/committee/whatever to determine who gets in, I ask this question. How do you factor in games vs out-of-state opponents? Chatard went 5-4 with 2 out-of-state losses. Do they get qualify because you make the ASSUMPTION that those teams must be really good since they beat Chatard?

Or how about 4-5 FW Luers? They play all conference, all much bigger foes. So would 4-5 Luers qualify due to strength of schedule while some 8-1 team sits at home?

So congratulations to 2-7, now 6-7 MONROVIA. And 8-4 Castle too. 

 

To be honest the title of this thread isn't the best. Saying Cinderella is a myth is in a way ignorant (lacking knowledge or awareness in genera). Cinderella doesn't have to be a losing team that would be too low in Sagarin ratings to make the playoffs in a qualify format.

Cinderella team/story is used to refer to situations in which competitors achieve far greater success than would reasonably have been best expected. Monrovia is a prime example of that. There have been several Cinderella teams/stories over the years (it doesn't mean they have to have a losing record). So no Cinderella is not a myth, probably could have been worded better. Regardless nobody expected the Monrovia Bulldogs to win the games they have or be in Semi-State next week except for their belief in themselves. They are a Cinderella story this year and are playing good football right now.

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1 hour ago, FastpacedO said:

To be honest the title of this thread isn't the best. Saying Cinderella is a myth is in a way ignorant (lacking knowledge or awareness in genera). Cinderella doesn't have to be a losing team that would be too low in Sagarin ratings to make the playoffs in a qualify format.

Cinderella team/story is used to refer to situations in which competitors achieve far greater success than would reasonably have been best expected. Monrovia is a prime example of that. There have been several Cinderella teams/stories over the years (it doesn't mean they have to have a losing record). So no Cinderella is not a myth, probably could have been worded better. Regardless nobody expected the Monrovia Bulldogs to win the games they have or be in Semi-State next week except for their belief in themselves. They are a Cinderella story this year and are playing good football right now.

There’s nothing wrong with the thread title. Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be ranked outside the top half of Sagarin. They are an extreme outlier in this case study. Bottom half Sagarin rated teams went 2-76 in the first round against top half Sagarin rated teams. That’s par for the course. Monrovia didn’t factor into that first round figure because due to a flaw in the postseason format played the worst team not only in their sectional, but in 3A.

Props to Monrovia for continuing to strap it up and overcome, but it doesn’t change the fact the postseason format is broken. The numbers speak for themself.

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7 hours ago, slice60 said:

And for all of those geniuses who say the IHSAA can simply use Sagarin/computers/committee/whatever to determine who gets in, I ask this question. How do you factor in games vs out-of-state opponents? Chatard went 5-4 with 2 out-of-state losses. Do they get qualify because you make the ASSUMPTION that those teams must be really good since they beat Chatard?

CalPreps and Massey are computer rankings that factor in out of state competition. Chatard was a top 10 team in both and would have effortlessly qualified for a playoff format that effectively cut the field in half.

*And if you’ve followed throughout, I’ve acknowledged Sagarin likely wouldn’t be the formula the IHSAA uses as it doesn’t factor out of state opponents. I personally used Sagarin because it’s readily accessible and through John Harrell’s website ranks each sectional by Sagarin.

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33 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

There’s nothing wrong with the thread title. Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be ranked outside the top half of Sagarin.

Props to Monrovia for continuing to strap it up and overcome

Funny how you’ve been provided examples of “extreme outliers” both this year and the past….and yet you ignore them.

So a team must be a sectional champ to get your acknowledgment?  Sectional finalist this year doesn’t count?

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1 minute ago, Bash Riprock said:

Funny how you’ve been provided examples of “extreme outliers” both this year and the past….and yet you ignore them.

So a team must be a sectional champ to get your acknowledgment?  Sectional finalist this year doesn’t count?

How many sectional finalist advanced by beating top half rated teams? If you’re referring to Pike Central, somebody out of that quadrant had to make the sectional finals given the nature of how a single elimination tournament works. Pike Central was the winner of this flawed system in this specific scenario.

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2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

There’s nothing wrong with the thread title. Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be ranked outside the top half of Sagarin. They are an extreme outlier in this case study. Bottom half Sagarin rated teams went 2-76 in the first round against top half Sagarin rated teams. That’s par for the course. Monrovia didn’t factor into that first round figure because due to a flaw in the postseason format played the worst team not only in their sectional, but in 3A.

Props to Monrovia for continuing to strap it up and overcome, but it doesn’t change the fact the postseason format is broken. The numbers speak for themself.

I think you missed my point. Cinderella doesn't have to be a team ranked outside the top half of sagarin. Cinderella  is used to refer to situations in which competitors achieve far greater success than would reasonably have been best expected. Nowhere does it say outside the Top 25, Top 10, etc. A cinderella is a team that beats a team/teams they were not reasonably expected to (ie Monrovia this year) there have been several teams to do that. My use of ignorance wasn't to put you or a qualify format tournament down. Just pointing out the title doesn't fit what a Cinderella team is, nothing more nothing less.

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2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

How many sectional finalist advanced by beating top half rated teams? If you’re referring to Pike Central, somebody out of that quadrant had to make the sectional finals given the nature of how a single elimination tournament works. Pike Central was the winner of this flawed system in this specific scenario.

At least one in Sectional 29 alone ... and now in regional between 29 and 30.

Just curious, and I'm not really interested in hearing about Pike because that's a "squirrel" distraction, does Monrovia not only meet, but surpass that highlighted first-sentence?

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At the end of the day, an all in tournament that is either partially or fully seeded with neutral sites for regional and semi state games is the answer. You only need 24 locations for regional and 12 (which could be half of the same regional locations) for semi state games. Partially seeding also allows for the random draw the IHSAA loves so much. All in leaves zero argument as everyone had their chance to get the job done.

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Interesting way to think about things now ... Monrovia will be playing this weekend in 3A semi-state.  That puts them as one of only four remaining teams in 3A ... one of 64.  Further of interest is that they are one of just 24 teams still alive out of 316 teams that had Sagarin ratings.  Incidentally, their Sagarin rating currently places them 135 in the state across all classes ... in the top half of ALL schools in the state, but just not in 3A. 

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On 11/12/2022 at 8:10 AM, Footballking16 said:

How many sectional finalist advanced by beating top half rated teams? If you’re referring to Pike Central, somebody out of that quadrant had to make the sectional finals given the nature of how a single elimination tournament works. Pike Central was the winner of this flawed system in this specific scenario.

Wasn't Warsaw a sectional finalist as well? Lost to Carroll I believe.  Earlier, I showed you using Sagarin, they would not have made your top 50% in 6A.

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5 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Wasn't Warsaw a sectional finalist as well? Lost to Carroll I believe.  Earlier, I showed you using Sagarin, they would not have made your top 50% in 6A.

Warsaw beat a fellow bottom half Sagarin rated team (Elkhart) to advance to the sectional final due to a flaw in the current postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success. Neither should have been in the tournament to begin with under my proposal and in any format that recognizes regular season success would have faced Penn or Carroll in the opening round.

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24 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Warsaw beat a fellow bottom half Sagarin rated team (Elkhart) to advance to the sectional final due to a flaw in the current postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success. Neither should have been in the tournament to begin with under my proposal and in any format that recognizes regular season success would have faced Penn or Carroll in the opening round.

Then again, as was pointed out above, but never addressed, Monrovia is a bottom half team that advanced to a sectional final beating a Top 20 and then a Top 25 team, for the sectional title, who had in turn beaten a Top 25, Top 10, and Top 5 teams.  Then Monrovia stepped into regionals and beat a Top 15 team that had also beaten a Top 30 team and a Top 10 team. 

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4 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Then again, as was pointed out above, but never addressed, Monrovia is a bottom half team that advanced to a sectional final beating a Top 20 and then a Top 25 team, for the sectional title, who had in turn beaten a Top 25, Top 10, and Top 5 teams.  Then Monrovia stepped into regionals and beat a Top 15 team that had also beaten a Top 30 team and a Top 10 team. 

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I’ve discussed them ad nauseam in this very thread. I’ve even congratulated them.

Did you conveniently forget that Monrovia played not only the worst team in their sectional, but the worst team in 3A in their first round matchup? That doesn’t happen in a postseason format that rewards regular season success. 

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3 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I’ve discussed them ad nauseam in this very thread. I’ve even congratulated them.

Did you conveniently forget that Monrovia played not only the worst team in their sectional, but the worst team in 3A in their first round matchup? That doesn’t happen in a postseason format that rewards regular season success. 

Nope, didn't forget it all all ... not that it matters in the overall results.  Of course, given that they knocked off a Top 20, Top 25, and Top 15 for their last three games, which includes a sectional and regional championship, that's where the focus should be.  The distraction of PolyTech and Pike Central shouldn't even be included at this point because that's all it is.  They aren't here ... Monrovia is ... that's what I conveniently remember. 

In the end, it's about results and Monrovia bucked your prediction because 1) they made it out of a sectional, 2) they advanced more than "a round, sometimes two ...",  3) the sectional wasn't "exclusively chalk," and possibly the most interesting and 4) Cinderella runs in Indiana High School football do seem to exist ... even if every once in a while.  It may well end this weekend for Monrovia, but there's no denying that their run has been 1) unexpected, especially given the season record, 2) something that defied the numbers, and 3) Cinderellaesque.   

 

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5 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Nope, didn't forget it all all ... not that it matters in the overall results.  Of course, given that they knocked off a Top 20, Top 25, and Top 15 for their last three games, which includes a sectional and regional championship, that's where the focus should be.  The distraction of PolyTech and Pike Central shouldn't even be included at this point because that's all it is.  They aren't here ... Monrovia is ... that's what I conveniently remember. 

In the end, it's about results and Monrovia bucked your prediction because 1) they made it out of a sectional, 2) they advanced more than "a round, sometimes two ...",  3) the sectional wasn't "exclusively chalk," and possibly the most interesting and 4) Cinderella runs in Indiana High School football do seem to exist ... even if every once in a while.  It may well end this weekend for Monrovia, but there's no denying that their run has been 1) unexpected, especially given the season record, 2) something that defied the numbers, and 3) Cinderellaesque.   

 

-78 first round match-ups that pitted a top half Sagarin team vs a bottom half Sagarin rated team. Bottom half teams went 2-76 and both promptly lost the next round.

-Monrovia was the ONLY bottom half Sagarin team in the entire state to advance to a sectional final by virtue of beating a top half Sagarin team. Literally a statistical anomaly. They also drew the worst rated team in the entire class by virtue of a postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success.

-A run like Monrovia is on happens once in a blue moon, they’d happen even less if the IHSAA put on a tournament that acknowledged a 2.5 month regular season took place prior. Keeping a flawed postseason for the sake of a statistical anomaly doesn’t make sense, it never will.

This exercise I believe has run its course and the numbers don’t lie. They never have. Add a tenth regular season game, eliminate half the field at the conclusion of the regular season, acknowledge, reward, and seed teams based on regular season success just as it’s done everywhere else and hope for a better, more competitive tournament throughout. 

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this is boring, why are you all even arguing about it still. (all in format sucks)

 

4 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

-78 first round match-ups that pitted a top half Sagarin team vs a bottom half Sagarin rated team. Bottom half teams went 2-76 and both promptly lost the next round.

-Monrovia was the ONLY bottom half Sagarin team in the entire state to advance to a sectional final by virtue of beating a top half Sagarin team. Literally a statistical anomaly. They also drew the worst rated team in the entire class by virtue of a postseason format that doesn’t reward regular season success.

-A run like Monrovia is on happens once in a blue moon, they’d happen even less if the IHSAA put on a tournament that acknowledged a 2.5 month regular season took place prior. Keeping a flawed postseason for the sake of a statistical anomaly doesn’t make sense, it never will.

This exercise I believe has run its course and the numbers don’t lie. They never have. Add a tenth regular season game, eliminate half the field at the conclusion of the regular season, acknowledge, reward, and seed teams based on regular season success just as it’s done everywhere else and hope for a better, more competitive tournament throughout. 

can we compromise and add 6 games to the regular season instead, 15 seems like a good number.

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I get tired, as much as the next person, of reading about this year after year....but it's something the IHSAA should feel obligated to look into with the annual controversy surrounding the format.  

-I don't want to ever see a qualification system, keep it all inclusive...there will always be an opportunity for a Monrovia type team to make a run and that should never be fully eliminated. It's a great thing for all sports to have an underdog story. 

-But SEED THE SECTIONALS...this is the easiest middle ground solution!  Sectional 30, for example, literally had the top 4 out of 8 in the top half of the bracket..This cannot be allowed to happen!

-Someone brought up having regional and semi state games at neutral sites...I can definitely see the upside of this. There are a plentiful amount of football facilities (college and high school) that have popped up in the last 20 years, that you didn't have at the turn of the century.  If I'm the IHSAA, I look at this as a way to highlight growth of the sport in our state. Why not play your biggest games of the year at the premier stadiums??

But at the same time..there's something special about a high school program getting to host a late tournament game...such a big event for the community. 

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On 11/12/2022 at 7:28 AM, Footballking16 said:

There’s nothing wrong with the thread title. Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be ranked outside the top half of Sagarin. They are an extreme outlier in this case study. Bottom half Sagarin rated teams went 2-76 in the first round against top half Sagarin rated teams. That’s par for the course. Monrovia didn’t factor into that first round figure because due to a flaw in the postseason format played the worst team not only in their sectional, but in 3A.

Props to Monrovia for continuing to strap it up and overcome, but it doesn’t change the fact the postseason format is broken. The numbers speak for themself.

I've always respected your posts and thoughts. After re-reading it really baffles me with this mindset.

You state there is nothing wrong with the thread title "Cinderella is a Myth" yet here we sit with a Cinderella (team outside the top 32 of 64) and you still feel it doesn't exist?

Regardless if Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be outside the top half of sagarin, they were still sectional champs and still outside the top half of sagarin.

Being an "extreme outlier" is an even STRONGER case that Cinderella is not a myth and does exist no matter how much lipstick you want to put on the pig.

You state bottom half sagarin rated teams went 2-76. Those 2 wins are still there. Are they outnumbered? Yes, but they still exist lending that there were 2 Cinderella's proving it is not a "myth". Now if it were 0-78 you would have a better case.

Regardless if Monrovia played the worst team in their sectional or 3A, they still knocked off some good teams in Speedway and Danville (both top 25 teams). Then followed it up by beating beating a top team that was undefeated on the road.

I will agree the post season tournament is broken. You can't ignore the fact though that Cinderella is not a myth and Monrovia is a prime example of that. Don't take it personal just pointing out it does exist and Monrovia may go no further but they still have a cinderella run.

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1 hour ago, FastpacedO said:

I've always respected your posts and thoughts. After re-reading it really baffles me with this mindset.

You state there is nothing wrong with the thread title "Cinderella is a Myth" yet here we sit with a Cinderella (team outside the top 32 of 64) and you still feel it doesn't exist?

Regardless if Monrovia was the only sectional champ to be outside the top half of sagarin, they were still sectional champs and still outside the top half of sagarin.

Being an "extreme outlier" is an even STRONGER case that Cinderella is not a myth and does exist no matter how much lipstick you want to put on the pig.

You state bottom half sagarin rated teams went 2-76. Those 2 wins are still there. Are they outnumbered? Yes, but they still exist lending that there were 2 Cinderella's proving it is not a "myth". Now if it were 0-78 you would have a better case.

Regardless if Monrovia played the worst team in their sectional or 3A, they still knocked off some good teams in Speedway and Danville (both top 25 teams). Then followed it up by beating beating a top team that was undefeated on the road.

I will agree the post season tournament is broken. You can't ignore the fact though that Cinderella is not a myth and Monrovia is a prime example of that. Don't take it personal just pointing out it does exist and Monrovia may go no further but they still have a cinderella run.

Bigfoot is a myth … and yet, there are still sightings. 😆🤣

It was inevitable that this would happen sometime. Bad luck for @Footballking16that it happened this season. But this has been tracked every year I can remember this debate going on, and this is the first time I recall it happening. The bottom line is that it is statistically insignificant. The basic question remains: do you design a system to accommodate the statistical outlier that occurs once every ten years or so? Or, do you design a system that returns benefits every season, to the disadvantage of the one team per decade that bucks the odds?

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1 minute ago, Bobref said:

Bigfoot is a myth … and yet, there are still sightings. 😆🤣

It was inevitable that this would happen sometime. Bad luck for @Footballking16that it happened this season. But this has been tracked every year I can remember this debate going on, and this is the first time I recall it happening. The bottom line is that it is statistically insignificant. The basic question remains: do you design a system to accommodate the statistical outlier that occurs once every ten years or so? Or, do you design a system that returns benefits every season, to the disadvantage of the one team per decade that bucks the odds?

That's my approach and the numbers once again prove what I've been saying for years and a statistical improbability doesn't change the fact or narrative that the current format is flawed.

It'd be akin to a public health official coming out and saying it's a myth that jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge is dangerous because one person one time survived. Sadly, people would believe it. 

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