What's going on at Carmel?

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

Temp mentioned something that I was thinking myself.............country club sports. But why would those sports hold a higher level of importance at Carmel than other burbs like Fishers and HSE?

How many of the country club sports are really competing with football though? You don't see many kids deciding between golf and football or swimming and football. Soccer has always been the Fall sport that has competed directly with football. Lacrosse is another booming sport that is also competes directly with the type of kid that plays football but is a Spring sport here in Indiana. Still, with the numbers Carmel has, it shouldn't be an issue.

The more I think about it, I think Temp may be right about Carmel getting too big for its own good. And to further it, I don't think its just the school, but Carmel itself. Carmel has eclipsed 100k residents and is now the 4th largest city in the state and will soon pass Evansville sometime in the next 5-10 years. Unlike its Hamilton County counterparts, Carmel today has much more of a city vibe than a town/community vibe. There's a ton of families living in Carmel that have next to nothing to do with Carmel High School who send their kids elsewhere. I think this hurts Carmel internally more than people want to lead on. 

[BTF]

"Carmel growing to big" is a good point. But wouldn't it be harder to make a country club sport team than football? I imagine it's harder to make the swim, tennis, soccer, or golf team than it is to make the football team. 

[Footballking16]

9 minutes ago, BTF said:

"Carmel growing to big" is a good point. But wouldn't it be harder to make a country club sport team than football? I imagine it's harder to make the swim, tennis, soccer, or golf team than it is to make the football team. 

Football is a no cut sport so I'm sure that argument holds true. But I don't think Carmel's dominance in country club sports has anything to do with its football program as I imagine the football program isn't competing with those sports for athletes. I imagine that is the case just about everywhere else. 

I do think Carmel's support system at the feeder and youth levels are weakening and could be the root problem going forward. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Footballking16

[PDB26]

9 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

I’m not anointing the Carmel program dead, just pointing out that there seems to be a clear downward trend. And the dwindling participation numbers within the youth and junior high feeders suggest this may be more than just a cyclical issue.

I didn't think you were; I was just offering an alternative to the idea of Carmel trending down - considering we're talking about a three year span.  You mention Carmel's feeder numbers, for good reason, and I think Temp raises the salient question re: participation below:

2 hours ago, temptation said:

I'd say participation game numbers in a Friday night contest approach 60 (just a complete guess honestly).  Am I way off base here in assuming Carmel has 250 kids that probably go out for football once freshman numbers are considered?

Is participation at the feeder level and 9th grade really having an effect on the number and quality of players that get onto the varsity roster? 

And I think you and Temp both have honed in on an interesting possibility that Carmel's emergence as a large city in its own right could impact the high school's football program in a negative way. 

[Footballking16]

1 minute ago, PDB26 said:

Is participation at the feeder level and 9th grade really having an effect on the number and quality of players that get onto the varsity roster?

I think low participation numbers at the youth and feeder levels signals at least one of two things

1. Carmel's losing football players to alternative leagues ie CYO

2. Lack of support in the youth leagues are steering kids to different sports

Having a strong youth/feeder program is the foundation for a strong varsity program in my opinion. It's not 100% foolproof, but not many instances where a strong high school program isn't backed by a strong youth/feeder with heavy community involvement. I know others have dismissed it, but as I said yesterday I'm hearing this is the case with Carmel. Carmel Dad's football numbers are almost at an all-time low for football and two of the Junior High Schools have declining participation numbers. A school of Carmel's raw size can likely get away with it long term, but I think you've seen a decent decline in just three seasons. 

 

 

[PDB26]

4 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I think low participation numbers at the youth and feeder levels signals at least one of two things

1. Carmel's losing football players to alternative leagues ie CYO

2. Lack of support in the youth leagues are steering kids to different sports

Having a strong youth/feeder program is the foundation for a strong varsity program in my opinion. It's not 100% foolproof, but not many instances where a strong high school program isn't backed by a strong youth/feeder with heavy community involvement. I know others have dismissed it, but as I said yesterday I'm hearing this is the case with Carmel. Carmel Dad's football numbers are almost at an all-time low for football and two of the Junior High Schools have declining participation numbers. A school of Carmel's raw size can likely get away with it long term, but I think you've seen a decent decline in just three seasons. 

No argument with the significance of any of that, especially the importance of feeders, and you're right to wonder about players entering a different feeder system.

I'm simply wondering how long have numbers been trending down, and by how much? The point I'm driving at is that football is a high attrition sport from 3rd grade to 12th grade. So, if the numbers are down in the feeder program while staying more or less constant at 9th grade and varsity levels isn't it likely that you're seeing more families/players figure out early that football just isn't for them? Certainly, some good future players would be lost in this scenario.

 

[Footballking16]

6 minutes ago, PDB26 said:

No argument with the significance of any of that, especially the importance of feeders, and you're right to wonder about players entering a different feeder system.

I'm simply wondering how long have numbers been trending down, and by how much? The point I'm driving at is that football is a high attrition sport from 3rd grade to 12th grade. So, if the numbers are down in the feeder program while staying more or less constant at 9th grade and varsity levels isn't it likely that you're seeing more families/players figure out early that football just isn't for them? Certainly, some good future players would be lost in this scenario.

 

I don't know exact numbers and for how long its been trending down but it appears, at least on the surface, the Carmel's Hamilton County peers have caught up to them and in Westfield's case, likely surpassed them. Decent chance Westfield is playing for its 3rd consecutive 6A title here in the coming weeks. 

[PDB26]

37 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

don't know exact numbers and for how long its been trending down but it appears, at least on the surface, the Carmel's Hamilton County peers have caught up to them and in Westfield's case, likely surpassed them. Decent chance Westfield is playing for its 3rd consecutive 6A title here in the coming weeks.

I agree, and I think you can safely say that most of Carmel's peers in Hamilton County have substantively caught up with them. I've been thinking of Westfield through this entire discussion. 

For that reason, I suggested that Carmel's performance in recent years is less a function of any single deficiency in its program than it is a function of playing in the most competitive region in the state, in a field where almost all of its peers - in Hamilton County and in the metro area - can combine enough enrollment with similarly favorable SES to challenge, catch, or surpass them, while participating in a tournament format that – I think – creates more opportunities for strong programs to fail to win their sectional.

[temptation]

56 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I don't know exact numbers and for how long its been trending down but it appears, at least on the surface, the Carmel's Hamilton County peers have caught up to them and in Westfield's case, likely surpassed them. Decent chance Westfield is playing for its 3rd consecutive 6A title here in the coming weeks. 

I'm not ready to say surpassed just yet.

[foxbat]

2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

I think low participation numbers at the youth and feeder levels signals at least one of two things

1. Carmel's losing football players to alternative leagues ie CYO

2. Lack of support in the youth leagues are steering kids to different sports

Having a strong youth/feeder program is the foundation for a strong varsity program in my opinion. It's not 100% foolproof, but not many instances where a strong high school program isn't backed by a strong youth/feeder with heavy community involvement. I know others have dismissed it, but as I said yesterday I'm hearing this is the case with Carmel. Carmel Dad's football numbers are almost at an all-time low for football and two of the Junior High Schools have declining participation numbers. A school of Carmel's raw size can likely get away with it long term, but I think you've seen a decent decline in just three seasons. 

 

 

Could also be the alternative of different sports steering kids from football youth leagues.  Would also be interested in seeing if there are other impact areas as well.

That Carmel/Westfield area is home to LOTS of emerging travel baseball squads and those squads are starting to trickle down into the younger age groups.  It's one thing when the travel teams is tied to your school program like Harrison and Westfield and even Carmel and they work to not create potential drain from their own other sports programs, but there are lots of those travel programs that don't have school ties/allegiance and are in direct conflict.  More and more kids are starting to be one-sport or two-sport kids where they used to be three-sport and four-sport.  Soccer programs are also becoming more league than rec as well as the youth level, so it used to be a situation when you had a kid that played football and soccer, you could rely on that kids being at the vast bulk of football practices and maybe missing out or leaving practice early every once in a while for a mid-week soccer game.  Nowadays, you are starting to see kids playing football and soccer and they miss one out of every two football practices a week for soccer and maybe a quarter to third of football games because of the conflict with soccer.  Similarly, we've seen kids doing fall baseball instead of football and, in some cases, just chucking football completely to play fall baseball; even though fall baseball tends to be more rec than league/tourney ... although there are some fall ball teams that actually travel and play out of state.  My youngest son played as a filler on a travel team from southern Indiana, but my stipulation to the coach was that he would not be available to play until youth football season was over.

[hhpatriot04]

On 10/31/2022 at 4:31 PM, temptation said:

Concussion moms?

No, seriously I think Carmel may actually have gotten too big for itself.

The fanbase seems disinterested  and the disconnect between the football program and fan attendance shows.

I joked that they may have gotten bored with winning but that was sort of tongue-in-cheek.

As far as SES, is there a point where it is actually too low, which hurts a sport like football that depends on a certain type of player?

Carmel set a home attendance record during homecoming this year, I believe. Does that not reflect program support/interest? 

[Ballhawk]

For the past 6-7 years, the Carmel middle schools have struggled with numbers.  There is some talent on those teams, but it's hard to fathom a district that large with 3 middle schools and they don't have enough players to play a B game.  They also all run whatever they choose as far as offense and defense, so they aren't building a good foundation.  You would think Westfield with 1 middle school would be at a disadvantage, but apparently it works for them, especially when everyone is running the same system through all of their levels.

[hhpatriot04]

1 minute ago, Ballhawk said:

For the past 6-7 years, the Carmel middle schools have struggled with numbers.  There is some talent on those teams, but it's hard to fathom a district that large with 3 middle schools and they don't have enough players to play a B game.  They also all run whatever they choose as far as offense and defense, so they aren't building a good foundation.  You would think Westfield with 1 middle school would be at a disadvantage, but apparently it works for them, especially when everyone is running the same system through all of their levels.

I would always think that a HS with one feeder is at an advantage because it's easier for the HC to have an influence.

[foxbat]

16 minutes ago, Ballhawk said:

For the past 6-7 years, the Carmel middle schools have struggled with numbers.  There is some talent on those teams, but it's hard to fathom a district that large with 3 middle schools and they don't have enough players to play a B game.  They also all run whatever they choose as far as offense and defense, so they aren't building a good foundation.  You would think Westfield with 1 middle school would be at a disadvantage, but apparently it works for them, especially when everyone is running the same system through all of their levels.

Is this really a deterrent per se?  Maybe it's different at the middle school level.  I know at the youth levels, while a lot of folks swear by having youth programs run the high school schemes, when I coached youth at LCC, I saw five head coaches and an interim come and go and all had the same philosophy when we asked about what they wanted us to run.  They all said, don't worry about formations/plays ... teach them good skills, teach them how to be safe, teach them to work together, have fun, and keep them coming back and they would worry about plays and formations when they got them in high school.  I think that the newest coach may have altered that now.

[temptation]

31 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Carmel set a home attendance record during homecoming this year, I believe. Does that not reflect program support/interest? 

Source?

[hhpatriot04]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Source?

I heard it on the sideline while I was covering the game. I could've checked with the AD last week, but alas.

[Footballking16]

8 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Is this really a deterrent per se?  Maybe it's different at the middle school level.  I know at the youth levels, while a lot of folks swear by having youth programs run the high school schemes, when I coached youth at LCC, I saw five head coaches and an interim come and go and all had the same philosophy when we asked about what they wanted us to run.  They all said, don't worry about formations/plays ... teach them good skills, teach them how to be safe, teach them to work together, have fun, and keep them coming back and they would worry about plays and formations when they got them in high school.  I think that the newest coach may have altered that now.

Yes I would agree that isn't the end of the world, but have heard there is some pretty major disconnect between the high school program and the youth and feeder leagues. It's currently not structured very well and there is very little influence being pushed from the top. They all seem to run independently from one another and there's just not much cohesion between all parties. That's not the Carmel I used to know. 

[gonzoron]

9 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I heard it on the sideline while I was covering the game. I could've checked with the AD last week, but alas.

I think Temp calls that boots on the ground. Perfect.

[Ballhawk]

2 hours ago, foxbat said:

Is this really a deterrent per se?  Maybe it's different at the middle school level.  I know at the youth levels, while a lot of folks swear by having youth programs run the high school schemes, when I coached youth at LCC, I saw five head coaches and an interim come and go and all had the same philosophy when we asked about what they wanted us to run.  They all said, don't worry about formations/plays ... teach them good skills, teach them how to be safe, teach them to work together, have fun, and keep them coming back and they would worry about plays and formations when they got them in high school.  I think that the newest coach may have altered that now.

What if a player from Creekside ran the Carmel HS offense and one from Clay ran something totally different?  If they were of equal ability would the player from Creekside have an advantage?  Possibly.  They should all teach fundamentals, but even linemen knowing blocking schemes or footwork fundamentals would be ahead of someone who played in a totally different system.

[Staxawax]

5 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

 Decent chance Westfield is playing for its 3rd consecutive 6A title here in the coming weeks. 

I think you mean Center Grove.  Westfield would be playing for it's 3rd consecutive 6A runnerup.

[Footballking16]

1 minute ago, Staxawax said:

I think you mean Center Grove.  Westfield would be playing for it's 3rd consecutive 6A runnerup.

Yeah worded that wrong. Should read:

*Playing in its 3rd consecutive 6a title 

[JustRules]

19 hours ago, PDB26 said:

@temptation and @GC42 propose some interesting and reasonable factors that might explain a program dropping off. I especially like the question of whether a school can get too big and a program too successful.

However, isn't it likely that Carmel's recent performances are a function of the depth of competition in the Indianapolis area?. Doesn't the quality of competition in the Indianapolis area make sustained dominance difficult to the point that any team in 5A or 6A is likely to go through a stretch where they don't get out of their sectional? And isn't it reasonable to think that the 32 team classes exacerbate the difficulty of emerging from a sectional in 5A and 6A – especially in the Indianapolis area? Sure, Carmel is the largest school, but aren't most of their peers able to combine large enough enrollments with similar enough SES profiles to negate whatever speculative advantage Carmel's additional enrollment might give them? 

I agree. Most of the Indy MIC/HCC and even Mid-States schools could have very good teams but get knocked out by 1 or 2 other teams in their sectional because of the local competition. Just because that happens 2 or 3 years in a row doesn't indicate anything. Many of those games could go either way. This applies to schools like Roncalli, Chatard, Brebeuf, Triton Central, Decatur Central, Tri-West, Danville, Lebanon, etc. Because of the talent the same team could lose in the first or second round of sectional or win state. Even teams that struggled this year like North Central and Pike have very talented players on their teams.

[Formerly Number 39]

The last time Carmel lost in sectional play two years in a row was 1990 and 1991 (coincidentally I was a member of both teams which likely explains it!). If you believe in trends there is clearly something wrong with the program! On a serious note, are we discounting how good Westfield may be based on Carmel's history? 

[JustRules]

6 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I would always think that a HS with one feeder is at an advantage because it's easier for the HC to have an influence.

I would say the more feeders you have the better. You can keep more kids in the system playing. Some kids develop later than others so the kid in a single middle school system who is small in middle school might opt out of football. But if the district is split into 3 or 4 middle schools he may have more of a chance to play. If he starts to get stronger or faster in 9th grade and he's still playing you still have him. If he quit in 7th grade he's now playing tennis or soccer or running cross country.

This has often touted as an advantage especially for the parochial schools. Chatard had 4 or 5 kids who started as QBs in 8th grade while a rural school with a similar enrollment had 1. You go that deep at each position you are going to have kids with more experience.

[Footballking16]

19 minutes ago, JustRules said:

I would say the more feeders you have the better. You can keep more kids in the system playing. Some kids develop later than others so the kid in a single middle school system who is small in middle school might opt out of football. But if the district is split into 3 or 4 middle schools he may have more of a chance to play. If he starts to get stronger or faster in 9th grade and he's still playing you still have him. If he quit in 7th grade he's now playing tennis or soccer or running cross country.

This has often touted as an advantage especially for the parochial schools. Chatard had 4 or 5 kids who started as QBs in 8th grade while a rural school with a similar enrollment had 1. You go that deep at each position you are going to have kids with more experience.

Excellent points!