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Snider vs Valpo


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4 hours ago, temptation said:

Do we think HSE is going to watch "Remember the Titans" or "Friday Night Lights" on their warm, cushioned ride up I-69 on Friday afternoon?  That is the question.

Friday night lights.. varsity blues too radical for ss trips?

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Imho valpo strengths appear to play in to Sniders weaknesses...as did the cavemen..Vikings have a more balanced attack..northside yet slightly more disciplined would be a good comparison..Snider being able to score in cold weather (passing per se) and limit penalties will be 🔑...

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I don't know about you Komets, but here in Fort Wayne, I've never noticed any kind of home field advantage. High school isn't like college or the NFL where home fans outnumber visitors 8 to 1. In high school, the visiting team has every opportunity to put fans in the stands that the home team does.

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Conference play in the SAC in 2022:

Bishop Luers goes 4-1 on the road and 0-4 at home. To be fair, their home games were against four of the top five teams in the conference. Luers ranked 6th in the SAC. 

Homes teams won 23 games while the road teams won 22. I just don't see the home field advantage at this level. 

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14 minutes ago, BTF said:

Conference play in the SAC in 2022:

Bishop Luers goes 4-1 on the road and 0-4 at home. To be fair, their home games were against four of the top five teams in the conference. Luers ranked 6th in the SAC. 

Homes teams won 23 games while the road teams won 22. I just don't see the home field advantage at this level. 

You draw that conclusion simply by comparing W=L records in 45 games in a closed conference? Not nearly a big enough sample size to have statistical significance.. Sagarin’s algorithms churned through about 1500 games this year, and came up with home field advantage of 1,76 pts. 

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52 minutes ago, BTF said:

I don't know about you Komets, but here in Fort Wayne, I've never noticed any kind of home field advantage. High school isn't like college or the NFL where home fans outnumber visitors 8 to 1. In high school, the visiting team has every opportunity to put fans in the stands that the home team does.

Neither have I. I would say since Homestead has come into the SAC, that is a difficult place to win. Carroll is now a difficult place to win. That is about it. Snider doesn’t have a home field. If Wayne, Luers, North Side, or Concordia have good teams, they may have an advantage since they play on grass. Sorry, South Side doesn’t count… Lol.

Certain people on the Grid may not like this, but many years ago, certain places outside of Fort Wayne were well known for “homer” officials, which gave those teams a significant home field advantage. I have not personally seen that in many years though. 
 

As is well known on the Grid, Luers mysteriously had a flooded field several years ago that may have given them a home field advantage. They also may have let the grass grow a little longer as well. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Bobref said:

You draw that conclusion simply by comparing W=L records in 45 games in a closed conference? Not nearly a big enough sample size to have statistical significance.. Sagarin’s algorithms churned through about 1500 games this year, and came up with home field advantage of 1,76 pts. 

Actually, turns out it’s more like 1800 games.

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6 minutes ago, Bobref said:

You draw that conclusion simply by comparing W=L records in 45 games in a closed conference? Not nearly a big enough sample size to have statistical significance.. Sagarin’s algorithms churned through about 1500 games this year, and came up with home field advantage of 1,76 pts. 

I thought I'd start with the two closed conferences. In the SIAC, the home team won 21 games while the away team won 24 games.

I've been following high school football for a long time, I just don't see it. If there is a home field advantage, it's nowhere near, not even close, to the home field advantage in college and the NFL. 

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Sagarin comes to the conclusion that the home team has a 1.76 pt advantage. In my opinion, that's not even worth discussing. A slight advantage? Sure. But I'm throwing that figure right out the window when predicting the outcome of a game. 

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3 minutes ago, BTF said:

Sagarin comes to the conclusion that the home team has a 1.76 pt advantage. In my opinion, that's not even worth discussing. A slight advantage? Sure. But I'm throwing that figure right out the window when predicting the outcome of a game. 

I agree with you on this. 2 point home field advantage means squat. Real home field advantages are like going to Green Bay in the cold, A dome stadium that is really loud, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, etc….

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12 hours ago, Bobref said:

That’s the question that has to be answered to determine whether long travel is a greater disadvantage than short travel.

While true and while this data just scratches the surface, 46+% is a far cry from the absolute @GOLDRUSH1985 claimed when making his original statement.

Even were I to dig deeper and analyze the data in terms of shorter travel, I have a hard time believing it’d be enough of a difference to be statistically significant and I may even put my neck out there and say that those traveling two hours or more have a HIGHER win rate than those who don’t which would make his narrative completely explode.

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8 hours ago, BTF said:

Sagarin comes to the conclusion that the home team has a 1.76 pt advantage. In my opinion, that's not even worth discussing. A slight advantage? Sure. But I'm throwing that figure right out the window when predicting the outcome of a game. 

Almost 2 pts. per game … over the course of 1800 games … that’s a lot of points. Ignore them at your peril. You can bet gamblers don’t think that kind of edge should be “thrown out the window.” And, of course, that includes schools that are 5 minutes apart, as well as the 2 1/2 hr. drive from Valpo to Ft. Wayne. And this is an average. Some games there may be only an infinitesimal advantage. Others, it might be huge. But you said there wasn’t a home field advantage, and there clearly is. Now you’re, as @temptationpredicted, “moving the goalposts” by saying the advantage is only “slight,” or not as great as college or pro. I hate it when he’s right.

By the way, I checked. Sagarin’s algorithms produce a home field advantage of 2.00 pts. on his college football page, and 2.18 pts. for the NFL. Not that much different, wouldn’t you say?

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20 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Almost 2 pts. per game … over the course of 1800 games … that’s a lot of points. Ignore them at your peril. You can bet gamblers don’t think that kind of edge should be “thrown out the window.” And, of course, that includes schools that are 5 minutes apart, as well as the 2 1/2 hr. drive from Valpo to Ft. Wayne. And this is an average. Some games there may be only an infinitesimal advantage. Others, it might be huge. But you said there wasn’t a home field advantage, and there clearly is. Now you’re, as @temptationpredicted, “moving the goalposts” by saying the advantage is only “slight,” or not as great as college or pro. I hate it when he’s right.

By the way, I checked. Sagarin’s algorithms produce a home field advantage of 2.00 pts. on his college football page, and 2.18 pts. for the NFL. Not that much different, wouldn’t you say?

I am a firm believer in Sagarin in most cases and actually you can almost predict point spreads prior to their release by checking the Sagarin ratings.  They are usually damn close.

That being said, I do believe that college football boasts the biggest homefield advantage of any sport and its not even close.  Just take a look at the top 10 this year.

Georgia demolished Oregon (in Atlanta albeit) but that is practically a home game.  They then rolled Tennessee in Athens.

Michigan demolished a good Penn State team in Ann Arbor in a game that was not nearly as close as the score indicated.

TCU (who should be third right now which pains me to say as a Michigan fan) bucked the trend a bit with their win in Austin but defeated good Kansas State and Oklahoma State teams at home.

Tennessee rolled out the magic carpet on a Saturday afternoon and 100+ people willed them to victory over Alabama.  Their road win at LSU bucked the trend and may actually be the best win in the country at the end of the season.

USC's lone loss is to a good Utah team AT NIGHT on the road.

LSU found the same magic that Tennessee did in winning over Bama in overtime in Death Valley at night.

Clemson looked like a JV team at night against Notre Dame.

Alabama is 3 plays away from 5-5, but also 3 plays away from 10-0.  Their two road losses are by a combined 4 points and they needed tons of luck to escape in Austin in week 2.

Utah lost in the swamp against what has turned out to be a mediocre Florida squad and lost at the Rose Bowl against UCLA.

Winning on the road in college football is damn hard...even for great teams.  I think Sagarin underestimates that.

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1 minute ago, temptation said:

Winning on the road in college football is damn hard...even for great teams.  I think Sagarin underestimates that

As I said, Sagarin is an average. Some games, the home field advantage is enormous. Others, not so much. That’s why the best expression of the advantage is a point spread, not a W-L record. And anecdotal evidence is next to useless compared to the law of large numbers. If all you looked at was Ohio State traveling to play IU, you’d conclude there was no home field advantage. If you looked at IU traveling to Columbus, you’d say the advantage was gigantic. There is safety (and greater accuracy) in large numbers of games.

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HCC: Home wins 15, visitor wins 13. I looked up three conferences and the combined total has the visitor ahead by one. 

I'll stand by my examples. It just doesn't make much of a difference at the high school level. I've been watching for a long time and it just doesn't matter if Dwenger or Snider is the home team. Same for Dwenger and Homestead. Same for Snider and Carroll. It just doesn't amount to a hill of beans in my opinion. 

"Now, back to the game." (Bob Knight)

Snider's clearly the favorite in this one. But I've seen teams like Valpo that  weren't given a chance at this level. It's dangerous territory for the team that's favored. On one hand I like Snider by two touchdowns, but I also wouldn't be shocked at a Valpo victory. The Vikings are riding a five game winning streak and have an impressive running back who wasn't there during any of their losses. 

 

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18 minutes ago, BTF said:

HCC: Home wins 15, visitor wins 13. I looked up three conferences and the combined total has the visitor ahead by one. 

I'll stand by my examples. It just doesn't make much of a difference at the high school level. I've been watching for a long time and it just doesn't matter if Dwenger or Snider is the home team. Same for Dwenger and Homestead. Same for Snider and Carroll. It just doesn't amount to a hill of beans in my opinion

Opinion by intelligent, experienced observer = good

Statistical evidence over many games compiled without bias = better

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10 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Opinion by intelligent, experienced observer = good

Statistical evidence over many games compiled without bias = better

I can live with that. I'll concede and say that the advantage is slight. Although Rodney made a good point regarding field conditions. A muddy field isn't going to do any favors for a team that is used to playing on turf. 

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1 minute ago, BTF said:

I can live with that. I'll concede and say that the advantage is slight. Although Rodney made a good point regarding field conditions. A muddy field isn't going to do any favors for a team that is used to playing on turf. 

No doubt there are many factors to be applied to an individual game. That’s why large numbers are necessary to say anything definitive.

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1 hour ago, BTF said:

I can live with that. I'll concede and say that the advantage is slight. Although Rodney made a good point regarding field conditions. A muddy field isn't going to do any favors for a team that is used to playing on turf. 

to elaborate I wasn't talking about field conditions, I'm simply stating if there exists a home field advantage, to think that it exists for every team equally is laughable. We could make a team out of Gridiron Digest members and waltz into any IPS school and mercy rule them (remove the mercy rule). Hell, we'd probably bring a bigger crowd with us as well. But Roncalli was absolutely wild on Friday, and not a place I would like to have to play at.

Edited by Rodney
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