temptation Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Eight teams left for four spots as the Temp sees it. 1. Georgia - in with one more win 2/3. Michigan/Ohio State winner is in provided they also win in Indy. 4. TCU - controls its own destiny, in if they win out. 5. USC - in if they win out unless LSU beats Georgia in Atlanta 6. LSU - controls its own destiny, in if they win out. 7. Michigan/Ohio State loser - in with a close loss and a USC, LSU loss 8. Clemson - in if they win out, either a blowout by Michigan/Ohio State Saturday or Saturday’s winner losing in Indy, and a TCU, USC, LSU loss How do you see things? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 8. I just do not see a path for Clemson to get in. One thing that has never changed in college football; when you lose is a huge factor. 7. UM/osu loser....maybe but it has to be close. 6. I agree. They will leap frog USC if they do win out. 5. USC may be left out in the cold. Giving up 45 points hurts them, and that loss is glaring. 4. TCU is this year's UC 2/3. agreed 1. UGA is a lock even if LSU beats them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 I see a path for Alabama 1. Georgia goes undefeated 2. Ohio State beats Michigan by 14 3. TCU goes undefeated USC gets beat by Notre Dame. USC lost to Georgia giving them 3 losses. That leaves it to the committee to choose between Clemson, Michigan, and Alabama. Alabama has two losses, both of them close, in by far the toughest conference in the country. Michigan is only one loss, but does losing to Ohio State do them any favors (insert OSU if Michigan beats them by 14). Clemson only has one loss, but it was ugly. Their strength of schedule does them no favors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 minute ago, BTF said: I see a path for Alabama 1. Georgia goes undefeated 2. Ohio State beats Michigan by 14 3. TCU goes undefeated USC gets beat by Notre Dame. USC lost to Georgia giving them 3 losses. That leaves it to the committee to choose between Clemson, Michigan, and Alabama. Alabama has two losses, both of them close, in by far the toughest conference in the country. Michigan is only one loss, but does losing to Ohio State do them any favors (insert OSU if Michigan beats them by 14). Clemson only has one loss, but it was ugly. Their strength of schedule does them no favors. If the 4th place SEC team gets into the playoff I’m out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, temptation said: If the 4th place SEC team gets into the playoff I’m out. Am I wrong though? Tennessee got curb stomped by a sub par SC team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 43 minutes ago, BTF said: Am I wrong though? Tennessee got curb stomped by a sub par SC team. You’re not wrong about the SEC being the best conference, no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, temptation said: You’re not wrong about the SEC being the best conference, no. We all know Saben has nine lives, he'll sneak in somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobref Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 10 hours ago, BTF said: We all know Saben has nine lives, he'll sneak in somehow. He’s going to have to buy a ticket this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Bobref said: He’s going to have to buy a ticket this year. No path at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobref Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 2 hours ago, BTF said: No path at all? I’m sure someone can figure one out … but highly unlikely to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 21, 2022 Author Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Bobref said: I’m sure someone can figure one out … but highly unlikely to happen. I think they would need the Clemson scenario above PLUS an upset in the Big Ten title game just to be considered. Edited November 21, 2022 by temptation 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boilernation Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 On 11/20/2022 at 11:41 AM, temptation said: Eight teams left for four spots as the Temp sees it. 1. Georgia - in with one more win 2/3. Michigan/Ohio State winner is in provided they also win in Indy. 4. TCU - controls its own destiny, in if they win out. 5. USC - in if they win out unless LSU beats Georgia in Atlanta 6. LSU - controls its own destiny, in if they win out. 7. Michigan/Ohio State loser - in with a close loss and a USC, LSU loss 8. Clemson - in if they win out, either a blowout by Michigan/Ohio State Saturday or Saturday’s winner losing in Indy, and a TCU, USC, LSU loss How do you see things? Agree with pretty much everything. I think UGA is a lock with a W against Ga Tech. No way LSU could beat them bad enough in Atlanta to knock Georgia out. If LSU wins it's likely by less than 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 So, Clemson takes itself out of the picture. Even with osu getting beat bad, they still have a chance. It seems LSU has a LOT on the line from this point on. If TCU wins out, they are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 And LSU says no thank you. So how crazy would this be IF it happens? The SEC Champ does NOT make the playoff. As Lloyd Christmas says, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 Gonna see if the committee puts their money where their mouth is tonight. #5? Alabama or OSU? OSU with better quality wins (Penn State/Notre Dame) but a lopsided HOME loss (Michigan). Bama with no major wins but two last second ROAD losses (LSU/Tennessee). Of course if all of the top four win, its a moot point. Hell, I think TCU now has wiggle room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 USC at 5? Will Bama leap frog them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 If TCU or USC get upset, then Ohio State is in..............Alabama can't jump them since neither team play this weekend. If there are two upsets, then both get in. If LSU wins, they are still out with 3 losses.................zero path for them. Michigan is in no matter what happens with Purdue, Ohio State can't jump them. So there is no path for anyone not currently in the Top 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, BTF said: If TCU or USC get upset, then Ohio State is in..............Alabama can't jump them since neither team play this weekend. If there are two upsets, then both get in. If LSU wins, they are still out with 3 losses.................zero path for them. Michigan is in no matter what happens with Purdue, Ohio State can't jump them. So there is no path for anyone not currently in the Top 6. But should that be the case? Why should TCU/USC get punished for playing an extra game? Is a 12-1 TCU with a close loss to K-State more impressive than an 11-1 Ohio State who has a 22 point loss at HOME? If USC is 11-2 and both are one possession losses to Utah (one on the road at night and one at a neutral site) are they really worse than OSU? I've been clamoring for two B10 teams since September but the caveat was that THE GAME last weekend had to be close...which it wasn't. Edited December 1, 2022 by temptation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 hours ago, temptation said: But should that be the case? Why should TCU/USC get punished for playing an extra game? Is a 12-1 TCU with a close loss to K-State more impressive than an 11-1 Ohio State who has a 22 point loss at HOME? If USC is 11-2 and both are one possession losses to Utah (one on the road at night and one at a neutral site) are they really worse than OSU? I've been clamoring for two B10 teams since September but the caveat was that THE GAME last weekend had to be close...which it wasn't. You and I both know that USC and TCU will absolutely get punished if they lose. Ohio State's body of work will be considered as will the fact (going off memory) Ohio State was still in a tight game with Michigan late in the 3rd quarter. Second question: Yes. In the committee's eyes, comparing the Pac 12 to the Big Ten is about the same as comparing the SAC to the HHC. The stronger conference gets the nod. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted December 1, 2022 Author Share Posted December 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, BTF said: You and I both know that USC and TCU will absolutely get punished if they lose. Ohio State's body of work will be considered as will the fact (going off memory) Ohio State was still in a tight game with Michigan late in the 3rd quarter. Second question: Yes. In the committee's eyes, comparing the Pac 12 to the Big Ten is about the same as comparing the SAC to the HHC. The stronger conference gets the nod. I think TCU is safe unless they get blown out. The Big XII was possibly the deepest conference in America this season. I don’t care how close a game WAS…if you can’t stop the other team in the second half you don’t get to claim some sort of moral victory. (And yes I would have said the same thing had Michigan got blown out Saturday.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boilernation Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 It’s pretty wild that USC and TCU can and will be punished for losing a bonus game when Ohio State played air. I’m sure we’ll see some wild stuff when the field goes to 8. Especially with seeding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Boilernation said: It’s pretty wild that USC and TCU can and will be punished for losing a bonus game when Ohio State played air. I’m sure we’ll see some wild stuff when the field goes to 8. Especially with seeding. To clarify, the field expands to 12. I wonder if we will see conferences put an end to their championship games? Especially with the coming 12 team playoff. A potential loss in an extra game could put a team in a bind as far as seeding goes, especially with 1st round byes involved. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18 hours ago, temptation said: I think TCU is safe unless they get blown out. The Big XII was possibly the deepest conference in America this season. I don’t care how close a game WAS…if you can’t stop the other team in the second half you don’t get to claim some sort of moral victory. (And yes I would have said the same thing had Michigan got blown out Saturday.) Ohio State always gets a pass for being better than what they are under Ryan Day..................always. I've been saying for years that the gap between Ohio State and Notre Dame is slim at best. They're no different than any other team that gets wasted by the SEC's best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, BTF said: Ohio State always gets a pass for being better than what they are under Ryan Day..................always. I've been saying for years that the gap between Ohio State and Notre Dame is slim at best. They're no different than any other team that gets wasted by the SEC's best. Truth. Though until my Wolverines prove their worth, you could replace "Ohio State" with "the entire Big Ten." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 50 minutes ago, temptation said: Truth. Though until my Wolverines prove their worth, you could replace "Ohio State" with "the entire Big Ten." That's definitely the case when it comes to the playoffs. But the Big Ten does seem to hold it's own in the other bowl games. I wouldn't mind seeing what the Big Ten's record is against the SEC in bowl games outside of the playoffs over the last 5 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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