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Success Factor Points


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I wish I was more knowledgeable about this topic, but I know there are many of you out there that are. Would love to see what the success factor points were given out this past season to see who needs what to stay or bump up/down in classes for the next season.

What a fantastic season 2022! Hate when championship weekend is over.  

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Cycle started over this year:   (not going to do 1 point sectional champ)

6a, doesn't matter 

5a:  Valpo earned 4, Whiteland 3, Castle 2, Snider 2, 

4a:  East Central 4, NP 3, LaPorte 2, Roncalli 2, 

3a:  Chatard 4, Lawrenceburg 3, WL 2 Monrovia 2 

2a:   Mater Dei 4, Andrean 3, Linton 2, Luers 2, 

1a:   Lutheran 4, AC 3, Judson 2, 

without looking on Harrell's I think that is it 

So yes, Andrean and Mater Dei could conceivably be in 3 straight 2a state games 

Lutheran COULD win 3 straight titles before moving up 

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1 minute ago, Coach Nowlin said:

Cycle started over this year:   (not going to do 1 point sectional champ)

6a, doesn't matter 

5a:  Valpo earned 4, Whiteland 3, Castle 2, Snider 2, 

4a:  East Central 4, NP 3, LaPorte 2, Roncalli 2, 

3a:  Chatard 4, Lawrenceburg 3, WL 2 Monrovia 2 

2a:   Mater Dei 4, Andrean 3, Linton 2, Luers 2, 

1a:   Lutheran 4, AC 3, Judson 2, 

without looking on Harrell's I think that is it 

Cathedral won 6A regional so will stay in 6A through 2025

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8 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

Cycle started over this year:   (not going to do 1 point sectional champ)

6a, doesn't matter 

5a:  Valpo earned 4, Whiteland 3, Castle 2, Snider 2, 

4a:  East Central 4, NP 3, LaPorte 2, Roncalli 2, 

3a:  Chatard 4, Lawrenceburg 3, WL 2 Monrovia 2 

2a:   Mater Dei 4, Andrean 3, Linton 2, Luers 2, 

1a:   Lutheran 4, AC 3, Judson 2, 

without looking on Harrell's I think that is it 

So yes, Andrean and Mater Dei could conceivably be in 3 straight 2a state games 

Lutheran COULD win 3 straight titles before moving up 

While one-pointers don't matter for move-up, some of those one-pointers though could be important for STAYING up.

  • Cathedral picked up a regional this year and thus picked up 2 points, so they remain in 6A through the next re-class regardless of what they do next season.
  • LCC and Evansville Memorial both picked up a sectional in 2A and 4A, respectively, and need a section each next season to remain up from their enrollment class.
  • Dwenger needs a regional next season to stay up in 5A.
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Noticed on the broadcast last night that Valpo has an enrollment of 2,200. Must have gone up since the classification. If it stays at that number, that would put them up in 6A during the next reclassification after next season.

39 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

Cycle started over this year:   (not going to do 1 point sectional champ)

6a, doesn't matter 

5a:  Valpo earned 4, Whiteland 3, Castle 2, Snider 2, 

4a:  East Central 4, NP 3, LaPorte 2, Roncalli 2, 

3a:  Chatard 4, Lawrenceburg 3, WL 2 Monrovia 2 

2a:   Mater Dei 4, Andrean 3, Linton 2, Luers 2, 

1a:   Lutheran 4, AC 3, Judson 2, 

without looking on Harrell's I think that is it 

So yes, Andrean and Mater Dei could conceivably be in 3 straight 2a state games 

Lutheran COULD win 3 straight titles before moving up 

You need 6 to bump up correct?

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10 hours ago, Coach Nowlin said:

Cycle started over this year:   (not going to do 1 point sectional champ)

6a, doesn't matter 

5a:  Valpo earned 4, Whiteland 3, Castle 2, Snider 2, 

4a:  East Central 4, NP 3, Kokomo  2, Roncalli 2, 

3a:  Chatard 4, Lawrenceburg 3, WL 2 Monrovia 2 

2a:   Mater Dei 4, Andrean 3, Linton 2, Luers 2, 

1a:   Lutheran 4, AC 3, Judson 2, 

without looking on Harrell's I think that is it 

So yes, Andrean and Mater Dei could conceivably be in 3 straight 2a state games 

Lutheran COULD win 3 straight titles before moving up 

Laporte is not in 4A nor did they earn any points in 5A

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19 minutes ago, Indiana Fan said:

Noticed on the broadcast last night that Valpo has an enrollment of 2,200. Must have gone up since the classification. If it stays at that number, that would put them up in 6A during the next reclassification after next season.

You need 6 to bump up correct?

Six to bump up ... 2 to stay.

There are going to be a couple of those "cusp" programs that will likely be moving up even with Cathedral staying up in 6A.  Valpo is one of them and likely WL-Harrison.  Harrison stayed down this go-round because of Cathedral's SF bump, but I believe that enrollment estimates are possibly pointing to Harrison possibly overtaking Jeff as the largest school in the Lafayette area which will put them in 6A next go-round.  Thought I saw conjecture in another thread about Whiteland likely moving toward 6A enrollment too.

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If Snider wins the *rematch* next year with Valpo and wins state, then both teams move up and Dwenger moves down. That could pave the way for a Merrillville, North Side, or Mishawaka to represent 5A in 2024. 

*With several starters returning for both teams, they'll probably start the season as the favorites out of the north. 

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9 hours ago, foxbat said:

Six to bump up ... 2 to stay.

There are going to be a couple of those "cusp" programs that will likely be moving up even with Cathedral staying up in 6A.  Valpo is one of them and likely WL-Harrison.  Harrison stayed down this go-round because of Cathedral's SF bump, but I believe that enrollment estimates are possibly pointing to Harrison possibly overtaking Jeff as the largest school in the Lafayette area which will put them in 6A next go-round.  Thought I saw conjecture in another thread about Whiteland likely moving toward 6A enrollment too.

Whiteland is exploding as its district snakes south and east of Greenwood and the parts of that area in Clark Township (east of I-65) are growing *fast*. 

If Whiteland isn't 6A next cycle, it will be in the following one. 

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7 hours ago, crimsonace1 said:

Whiteland is exploding as its district snakes south and east of Greenwood and the parts of that area in Clark Township (east of I-65) are growing *fast*. 

If Whiteland isn't 6A next cycle, it will be in the following one. 

Which of the 6A schools are on the verge of dropping down to 5A if Whiteland or Valpo or Harrison move up?

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1 hour ago, Indiana Fan said:

Which of the 6A schools are on the verge of dropping down to 5A if Whiteland or Valpo or Harrison move up?

Indianapolis Tech & Warsaw are likely the first two to drop

Columbus North & Lafayette Jeff might be eventuals. Northrop & Jeffersonville are also somewhat on the line. 

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1 hour ago, whiteshoes said:

Any discussion on how many years you must stay up and how many times you can drop?

Under the current process, you stay a minimum of the cycle.  I would say that, unless the cycle changes to something really big, like an 8-year cycle, that probably continues to work.  If it goes to an 8-year cycle, I could see an "interim check" situation after the first four years and perhaps something like special circumstances allowing for a drop back down if you only end up with a sectional or less in the first four years of an 8-year cycle.

I think, if there's a system in place that consistently "monitors" progress or regression in a program, I don't see a need to limit drops.  If you are constantly yo-yoing, then it's likely an indication that it's based on classes as opposed to program or your program is in that interim position between classes.  If it's that latter reason, then I'm fine with organic growth and the yo-yoing because it doesn't potentially snuff out a team that just needs a little extra time to get to that next level.  Time is something that we've got and organic growth tends to be much more lasting.

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Understand that you must stay up a minimum of 2 years when moved up and in some cases, say like Pioneer when they had Kizer, it might be tough for them to stay in a higher class.   However, if you "monitor" teams, then teams that are not allowed to drop, if the same rules are applied to all, will scream discrimination and the courts would rule for them.    I don't think that there is a perfect solution to this unless the state decided to segregate the public and non-public schools in different tournaments.    Georgia, for instance, does that in the lower classes.    Louisiana separates the entire field into what they call "Select' and "Non-Select", which I think is crazy.    

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20 minutes ago, whiteshoes said:

Understand that you must stay up a minimum of 2 years when moved up and in some cases, say like Pioneer when they had Kizer, it might be tough for them to stay in a higher class.   However, if you "monitor" teams, then teams that are not allowed to drop, if the same rules are applied to all, will scream discrimination and the courts would rule for them.    I don't think that there is a perfect solution to this unless the state decided to segregate the public and non-public schools in different tournaments.    Georgia, for instance, does that in the lower classes.    Louisiana separates the entire field into what they call "Select' and "Non-Select", which I think is crazy.    

When I said "monitor" I was referring to the current SF system which provides an automatic passive "monitoring" in the sense that, if teams are cutting it, then they stay up and, if they aren't they drop back down.  In that situation, all teams have the same application. 

I don't see segregation as a perfect solution.  I think SF is a step in the right direction to making a system that doesn't need to look at classifications like p/p or public and instead focuses on success.  The issue with SF, in its current incarnation, is that the cycle is too short and that ends up 1) focusing on short-term activity rather than a longer-term implication, 2) provides yo-yoing which gives the appearance of not working, 3) realistically, and this is tied to item 1, tends to impose penalties on future teams for current team success as opposed to focusing on a program's overall success.  Also, you can add in the "invisible hand" of the IHSAA in doing things like, when Chatard bumps up, sticking them in a head-to-head sectional with Roncalli in an attempt to limit p/p advancements out of sections.  Guess what that does?  That sends Chatard back to 3A in two-years' time.  Put them in a different sectional and ... perhaps ... Chatard spends more time in 4A.

Look, if there are advantages of p/p programs, why not develop a system that naturally sifts those advantages as opposed to artificially applying a bandage or gun-to-the-head solution?  A longer cycle window moves teams up based on actual program success rather than just temporary success.  It also keeps teams from moving up prematurely too.  There was already a step in the right direction by reducing the stay-up requirement from 4 points to 2 points.  The next step in the right direction is lengthening the cycle.  Ultimately, this then starts putting the focus on where it should be ... on the teams' performance as opposed to paper statistics like median income and perceived homogeneity of student body.  This would also apply regardless of p/p or public.  There are communities and districts in the state that have a public label, but for all intents and purposes have it better than some p/p programs.  Those schools should also being playing up as well; but based on their performance, not just because their FRL lunch program is less than 15% or all of their students are kids of corporate CEOs or university faculty.

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1 hour ago, foxbat said:

When I said "monitor" I was referring to the current SF system which provides an automatic passive "monitoring" in the sense that, if teams are cutting it, then they stay up and, if they aren't they drop back down.  In that situation, all teams have the same application. 

I don't see segregation as a perfect solution.  I think SF is a step in the right direction to making a system that doesn't need to look at classifications like p/p or public and instead focuses on success.  The issue with SF, in its current incarnation, is that the cycle is too short and that ends up 1) focusing on short-term activity rather than a longer-term implication, 2) provides yo-yoing which gives the appearance of not working, 3) realistically, and this is tied to item 1, tends to impose penalties on future teams for current team success as opposed to focusing on a program's overall success.  Also, you can add in the "invisible hand" of the IHSAA in doing things like, when Chatard bumps up, sticking them in a head-to-head sectional with Roncalli in an attempt to limit p/p advancements out of sections.  Guess what that does?  That sends Chatard back to 3A in two-years' time.  Put them in a different sectional and ... perhaps ... Chatard spends more time in 4A.

Look, if there are advantages of p/p programs, why not develop a system that naturally sifts those advantages as opposed to artificially applying a bandage or gun-to-the-head solution?  A longer cycle window moves teams up based on actual program success rather than just temporary success.  It also keeps teams from moving up prematurely too.  There was already a step in the right direction by reducing the stay-up requirement from 4 points to 2 points.  The next step in the right direction is lengthening the cycle.  Ultimately, this then starts putting the focus on where it should be ... on the teams' performance as opposed to paper statistics like median income and perceived homogeneity of student body.  This would also apply regardless of p/p or public.  There are communities and districts in the state that have a public label, but for all intents and purposes have it better than some p/p programs.  Those schools should also being playing up as well; but based on their performance, not just because their FRL lunch program is less than 15% or all of their students are kids of corporate CEOs or university faculty.

Could not have said it better.   

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On 11/27/2022 at 2:11 PM, BTF said:

If Snider wins the *rematch* next year with Valpo and wins state, then both teams move up and Dwenger moves down. That could pave the way for a Merrillville, North Side, or Mishawaka to represent 5A in 2024. 

*With several starters returning for both teams, they'll probably start the season as the favorites out of the north. 

Do you know how many starters are returning for Snider in 2023?

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