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Tougher Rebuild


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This comparison will probably limit most since one school is in Ohio. The comparison is Southern Wells and Parkway (Rockford) OH. Both have been at or near the bottom of their conferences. Each are close to me, and looking for a new coach. 

Southern Wells has a history of success. 2001 1A state champs and probably could have won in 2000 if they didn't blow it to my Jets that became state champs that year. During my HS days they were battling for 1st/2nd/3rd with Heritage & AC as well as Garrett. They ended my career and made it semi state losing to the juggernaut that was/is Sheridan. However in recent times they've struggled to field a varsity team and haven't won much at all. Plus there are rumblings that the school could close.

Parkway is in the mighty MAC that is the best small school football conference in Ohio and one of the best in the country. Parkway won the first conference crown and a couple more after. However that was in the early to mid 70s. It's been downhill ever since. They are the only school in the conference for football without a state title after New Bremen won in 2020 (NB won this year as well). Their schedule is brutal for the conference slate and they've had a tough time making the playoffs. Also seems like they do not have the athletes or enough of them like their conference foes.

So if you were a potential coach, what is the better job? Which is the tougher rebuild?

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1 hour ago, Basementbias said:

This comparison will probably limit most since one school is in Ohio. The comparison is Southern Wells and Parkway (Rockford) OH. Both have been at or near the bottom of their conferences. Each are close to me, and looking for a new coach. 

Southern Wells has a history of success. 2001 1A state champs and probably could have won in 2000 if they didn't blow it to my Jets that became state champs that year. During my HS days they were battling for 1st/2nd/3rd with Heritage & AC as well as Garrett. They ended my career and made it semi state losing to the juggernaut that was/is Sheridan. However in recent times they've struggled to field a varsity team and haven't won much at all. Plus there are rumblings that the school could close.

Parkway is in the mighty MAC that is the best small school football conference in Ohio and one of the best in the country. Parkway won the first conference crown and a couple more after. However that was in the early to mid 70s. It's been downhill ever since. They are the only school in the conference for football without a state title after New Bremen won in 2020 (NB won this year as well). Their schedule is brutal for the conference slate and they've had a tough time making the playoffs. Also seems like they do not have the athletes or enough of them like their conference foes.

So if you were a potential coach, what is the better job? Which is the tougher rebuild?

This is interesting news.  I have family on my wife's side that would be in the know about this; I'll ask around, or have her ask, and see what comes back.

Coaching-wise, I would probably pick SW due to the fact that their success has been more recent.  Maybe parents/community would be more apt to buy-in if the new guy made some progress? Another factor could be that, besides AC & SA, the ACAC might not be quite as tough of a conference as what Parkway has to deal with?

Edited by Bonecrusher
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2 minutes ago, Bonecrusher said:

This is interesting news.  I have family on my wife's side that would be in the know about this; I'll ask around, or have her ask, and see what comes back.

Coaching-wise, I would probably pick SW due to the fact that their success has been more recent.  Maybe parents/community would be more apt to buy-in if the new guy made some progress? Another factor could be that, besides AC & SA, the ACAC might not be quite as tough of a conference as what Parkway has to deal with?

It would be sad if SW would close and hopefully those rumblings are wrong. I'd like to see them get back to competing at the top of the conference. I tend to agree that SW may be better due to not having to play state championship teams like Coldwater, Marion Local, and etc on a weekly basis.

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On 1/5/2023 at 9:01 AM, Basementbias said:

This comparison will probably limit most since one school is in Ohio. The comparison is Southern Wells and Parkway (Rockford) OH. Both have been at or near the bottom of their conferences. Each are close to me, and looking for a new coach. 

Southern Wells has a history of success. 2001 1A state champs and probably could have won in 2000 if they didn't blow it to my Jets that became state champs that year. During my HS days they were battling for 1st/2nd/3rd with Heritage & AC as well as Garrett. They ended my career and made it semi state losing to the juggernaut that was/is Sheridan. However in recent times they've struggled to field a varsity team and haven't won much at all. Plus there are rumblings that the school could close.

Parkway is in the mighty MAC that is the best small school football conference in Ohio and one of the best in the country. Parkway won the first conference crown and a couple more after. However that was in the early to mid 70s. It's been downhill ever since. They are the only school in the conference for football without a state title after New Bremen won in 2020 (NB won this year as well). Their schedule is brutal for the conference slate and they've had a tough time making the playoffs. Also seems like they do not have the athletes or enough of them like their conference foes.

So if you were a potential coach, what is the better job? Which is the tougher rebuild?

Southern Wells is not closing and really isn’t in jeopardy of potential closure any time soon.  That was a rumor that got started several years ago by some people in the district who wanted to make sure the tax referendum would pass.  Fear is a common motivator used to drum up votes and when some of the tight wad farmers in the district raised opposition to the referendum, the rumor got started that the school would close if it didn’t pass.  The tax referendum passed then, and it was just renewed in the November election, which will continue to help with funding.  The enrollment at the elementary level has gone up this year with the closure of Montpelier Elementary and there seems to be some optimism that things will get better down the road.

Back to the main topic, SW‘s program has been struggling because they haven’t been able to develop any significant investment from their athletes.  Many choose not to play football, and several who play have little interest in working to get better.  Some certainly do, but not enough to turn the cultural around and get the support they had in the LeFebvre era.  The ACAC does not have anywhere near the depth of the MAC in football, so the opportunity to win games and get athletes to buy in is much more likely at SW.  It’s tough to build belief in the program if the wins don’t come, and Parkway faces a greater challenge to get those wins than SW.

If Parkway was the 8th member of the ACAC, I would be more optimistic that they could win more games than SW.  A move to the ACAC would probably benefit Parkway, and if they aren’t winning enough games in the MAC to get into the tournament in Ohio anyway, what would they have to lose?  At least they could win some games and build some optimism for the future.  That being said, I don’t think a move to an Indiana conference is a realistic possibility.  I know schools from Illinois have played in an Indiana conference, but I’m not familiar with any from Ohio.  Indiana schools could easily do it since we have an all-in tournament.  SW doesn’t have to worry about qualifying for the tournament, so that is one less obstacle to turning their fortunes around.

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On 1/8/2023 at 10:26 AM, HoopsCoach said:

Southern Wells is not closing and really isn’t in jeopardy of potential closure any time soon.  That was a rumor that got started several years ago by some people in the district who wanted to make sure the tax referendum would pass.  Fear is a common motivator used to drum up votes and when some of the tight wad farmers in the district raised opposition to the referendum, the rumor got started that the school would close if it didn’t pass.  The tax referendum passed then, and it was just renewed in the November election, which will continue to help with funding.  The enrollment at the elementary level has gone up this year with the closure of Montpelier Elementary and there seems to be some optimism that things will get better down the road.

Back to the main topic, SW‘s program has been struggling because they haven’t been able to develop any significant investment from their athletes.  Many choose not to play football, and several who play have little interest in working to get better.  Some certainly do, but not enough to turn the cultural around and get the support they had in the LeFebvre era.  The ACAC does not have anywhere near the depth of the MAC in football, so the opportunity to win games and get athletes to buy in is much more likely at SW.  It’s tough to build belief in the program if the wins don’t come, and Parkway faces a greater challenge to get those wins than SW.

If Parkway was the 8th member of the ACAC, I would be more optimistic that they could win more games than SW.  A move to the ACAC would probably benefit Parkway, and if they aren’t winning enough games in the MAC to get into the tournament in Ohio anyway, what would they have to lose?  At least they could win some games and build some optimism for the future.  That being said, I don’t think a move to an Indiana conference is a realistic possibility.  I know schools from Illinois have played in an Indiana conference, but I’m not familiar with any from Ohio.  Indiana schools could easily do it since we have an all-in tournament.  SW doesn’t have to worry about qualifying for the tournament, so that is one less obstacle to turning their fortunes around.

Glad to hear enrollment has gone up, as that was more of the rumor I heard than economics. I know closing of Pennville Elementary in Jay County was a hope to increase enrollment, but didn't seem like they got as much as they hoped. The rumor was that more kids were deciding to enroll at Bluffton than Southern Wells. How bad does the Montpelier closure hurt Blackford?

Edited by Basementbias
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9 hours ago, Basementbias said:

Glad to hear enrollment has gone up, as that was more of the rumor I heard than economics. I know closing of Pennville Elementary in Jay County was a hope to increase enrollment, but didn't seem like they got as much as they hoped. The rumor was that more kids were deciding to enroll at Bluffton than Southern Wells. How bad does the Montpelier closure hurt Blackford?

If you compare the enrollment of Blackford County Schools from last year to this year, every elementary cohort has gone down by an average of just over 6 students.  Meanwhile, the enrollment in each of the same cohorts at Southern Wells has gone up by an average of 6 students.  That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s relevant when each cohort at Blackford has around 115 students and SW has around 70.  And that’s just the number who transferred after Montpelier Elementary closed at the end of last year.  

Going down a rabbit hole here - looking at the public transfer data for this year, it shows that Blackford County Schools have 1752 students who live in their district, and 139 of them choose to attend Southern Wells.  The majority of those transfers live in or around Montpelier and live closer to SW than Blackford.  The 2nd highest number of transfers out of Blackford’s district is 38 students who go to Eastbrook.  Blackford has a net public transfer rate (49 incoming minus 305 outgoing) of -256.  That is a massive financial hit when you consider the state’s tuition support for each student is around $6000 per year.  Meanwhile SW has a net public transfer rate of +185.  In addition to the large number who come to SW from Blackford, they also get quite of few (69) from Warren that live in Huntington’s district.

SW does lose 68 students to Bluffton, but 31 from Bluffton come to SW for a net of -37.  Bluffton gains a lot (226) from Norwell, most of which probably live on the north side of Bluffton which is actually Norwell’s district.  81 from Bluffton’s district go to Norwell so the Tigers have a net gain of 145 with NW.  Bluffton’s overall net transfers are +160.  Norwell has a net transfer rate of +112, with the largest number coming from Fort Wayne Community and Huntington (Markle).

In your home county of Adams, Bellmont is in a similar situation as Blackford.  They have a net transfer rate of -281.  270 of their outgoing transfers go to Adams Central.  AC has a net transfer rate of +279.  I don’t think there are very many of those transfers who are from low income families or students who have special needs.  That contributes to a noteworthy difference in the demographics of AC compared to Bellmont and South Adams.  SA basically breaks even with their net transfer rate of -16.

Edited by HoopsCoach
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8 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

If you compare the enrollment of Blackford County Schools from last year to this year, every elementary cohort has gone down by an average of just over 6 students.  Meanwhile, the enrollment in each of the same cohorts at Southern Wells has gone up by an average of 6 students.  That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s relevant when each cohort at Blackford has around 115 students and SW has around 70.  And that’s just the number who transferred after Montpelier Elementary closed at the end of last year.  

Going down a rabbit hole here - looking at the public transfer data for this year, it shows that Blackford County Schools have 1752 students who live in their district, and 139 of them choose to attend Southern Wells.  The majority of those transfers live in or around Montpelier and live closer to SW than Blackford.  The 2nd highest number of transfers out of Blackford’s district is 38 students who go to Eastbrook.  Blackford has a net public transfer rate (49 incoming minus 305 outgoing) of -256.  That is a massive financial hit when you consider the state’s tuition support for each student is around $6000 per year.  Meanwhile SW has a net public transfer rate of +185.  In addition to the large number who come to SW from Blackford, they also get quite of few (69) from Warren that live in Huntington’s district.

SW does lose 68 students to Bluffton, but 31 from Bluffton come to SW for a net of -37.  Bluffton gains a lot (226) from Norwell, most of which probably live on the north side of Bluffton which is actually Norwell’s district.  81 from Bluffton’s district go to Norwell so the Tigers have a net gain of 145 with NW.  Bluffton’s overall net transfers are +160.  Norwell has a net transfer rate of +112, with the largest number coming from Fort Wayne Community and Huntington (Markle).

In your home county of Adams, Bellmont is in a similar situation as Blackford.  They have a net transfer rate of -281.  270 of their outgoing transfers go to Adams Central.  AC has a net transfer rate of +279.  I don’t think there are very many of those transfers who are from low income families or students who have special needs.  That contributes to a noteworthy difference in the demographics of AC compared to Bellmont and South Adams.  SA basically breaks even with their net transfer rate of -16.

Yes, that's what's pushing us to 2A. The academics and athletics together are making it hard to find housing in the AC district. Bellmont is suffering from that Chicago transplant decision as rural farm families don't feel safe sending their children to Bellmont. Law enforcement that I know have said it's a major headache on their end.

As for Blackford, I'm not surprised as the economics haven't been the best around there. I'd lump parts of Western Jay and Southern Wells in as well. 

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On 1/8/2023 at 9:26 AM, HoopsCoach said:

Southern Wells is not closing and really isn’t in jeopardy of potential closure any time soon.  That was a rumor that got started several years ago by some people in the district who wanted to make sure the tax referendum would pass.  Fear is a common motivator used to drum up votes and when some of the tight wad farmers in the district raised opposition to the referendum, the rumor got started that the school would close if it didn’t pass.  The tax referendum passed then, and it was just renewed in the November election, which will continue to help with funding.  The enrollment at the elementary level has gone up this year with the closure of Montpelier Elementary and there seems to be some optimism that things will get better down the road.

Back to the main topic, SW‘s program has been struggling because they haven’t been able to develop any significant investment from their athletes.  Many choose not to play football, and several who play have little interest in working to get better.  Some certainly do, but not enough to turn the cultural around and get the support they had in the LeFebvre era.  The ACAC does not have anywhere near the depth of the MAC in football, so the opportunity to win games and get athletes to buy in is much more likely at SW.  It’s tough to build belief in the program if the wins don’t come, and Parkway faces a greater challenge to get those wins than SW.

If Parkway was the 8th member of the ACAC, I would be more optimistic that they could win more games than SW.  A move to the ACAC would probably benefit Parkway, and if they aren’t winning enough games in the MAC to get into the tournament in Ohio anyway, what would they have to lose?  At least they could win some games and build some optimism for the future.  That being said, I don’t think a move to an Indiana conference is a realistic possibility.  I know schools from Illinois have played in an Indiana conference, but I’m not familiar with any from Ohio.  Indiana schools could easily do it since we have an all-in tournament.  SW doesn’t have to worry about qualifying for the tournament, so that is one less obstacle to turning their fortunes around.

I'm a tad late to the party on this.  Ran the whole SW closing thing up the flagpole with a few members of the wife's side of the fam, who live in the district and know what's going on, but didn't hear back right away.  Got basically the same response as this one.  I'm glad to hear that.  Recent football success (or lack thereof) issues aside, it's a nice school in a nice community.  I was skeptical when I first heard about it, but sometimes you never know what's really going on.

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3 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Sounds like a consolidation of Southern Wells and Blackford County schools would be a smart move.

 

That consolidation would put them in the top 3rd of 3A enrollment.  I know about SW's recent football woes, and doesn't look like Blackford's been having much success, either.  Wonder if combining two lackluster programs would net much of a gain.  Larger pool of athletes, yes, but what is the quality of those athletes?  Speaking strictly about football and not trying to knock the kids.  Maybe there would be gains in other sports.

What I don't know is how those two communities would feel about consolidating.  But doesn't look likely, so it's all speculation at this time.

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On 1/9/2023 at 10:56 PM, HoopsCoach said:

If you compare the enrollment of Blackford County Schools from last year to this year, every elementary cohort has gone down by an average of just over 6 students.  Meanwhile, the enrollment in each of the same cohorts at Southern Wells has gone up by an average of 6 students.  That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s relevant when each cohort at Blackford has around 115 students and SW has around 70.  And that’s just the number who transferred after Montpelier Elementary closed at the end of last year.  

Going down a rabbit hole here - looking at the public transfer data for this year, it shows that Blackford County Schools have 1752 students who live in their district, and 139 of them choose to attend Southern Wells.  The majority of those transfers live in or around Montpelier and live closer to SW than Blackford.  The 2nd highest number of transfers out of Blackford’s district is 38 students who go to Eastbrook.  Blackford has a net public transfer rate (49 incoming minus 305 outgoing) of -256.  That is a massive financial hit when you consider the state’s tuition support for each student is around $6000 per year.  Meanwhile SW has a net public transfer rate of +185.  In addition to the large number who come to SW from Blackford, they also get quite of few (69) from Warren that live in Huntington’s district.

SW does lose 68 students to Bluffton, but 31 from Bluffton come to SW for a net of -37.  Bluffton gains a lot (226) from Norwell, most of which probably live on the north side of Bluffton which is actually Norwell’s district.  81 from Bluffton’s district go to Norwell so the Tigers have a net gain of 145 with NW.  Bluffton’s overall net transfers are +160.  Norwell has a net transfer rate of +112, with the largest number coming from Fort Wayne Community and Huntington (Markle).

In your home county of Adams, Bellmont is in a similar situation as Blackford.  They have a net transfer rate of -281.  270 of their outgoing transfers go to Adams Central.  AC has a net transfer rate of +279.  I don’t think there are very many of those transfers who are from low income families or students who have special needs.  That contributes to a noteworthy difference in the demographics of AC compared to Bellmont and South Adams.  SA basically breaks even with their net transfer rate of -16.

How do you know all this

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