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Is IHSAA tournament success factor working? Two Indiana professors dive into the numbers.


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1 hour ago, oldtimeqb said:

WEBO 2018-2020 and Ev Mater Dei 2021-2022 are prime examples why 2 years, hard cut offs are ridiculous implementations of the SF.

 

 

43 minutes ago, foxbat said:

I didn't want to toss WeBo under the bus like that. 😃

Seriously, when SF was first being considered, I thought the same thing about the yo-yoing; especially in 1A.  Part of that was also, when it was first implemented, it took four points to stay up instead of two points, which I though for sure would set up a situation of roughly three or four teams taking turns wearing the crown.  That hasn't ended up materializing; especially with the two-point modification.  That kept Pioneer up in 2A instead of letting them back down ... and keep in mind that had they returned to 1A it would have been on the heals of picking up a regional title in 2A the year before over Andrean.  For the most part, there really hasn't been any yo-yoing of 1A teams.  Note that LCC won a sectional in 2A last season, so another sectional win and they stay.  

Although it's been about a decade since the first teams were SF'd, we're still still very young in the process.  We've only had a about five cycles and, in that time we've also had some issues with having to modify the stay-up points, so we've really only had four cycles and one of them was the wonky COVID cycle.  We don't have as many data points as it seems like we might have at this point, but I think SF is doing a decent enough job at this point, even if it's not at 100% of what it was expected/hoped to do.  I'd say it's a step in the right direction and better than where we were.

As for the p/p auto bump, in 1A, the only really competitive school at this point is Lutheran that's there.  SF is about to take care of them.  I also suspect that they will be able to pick up two points in 2A barring getting a 2A sectional of death like the 3A sectional of death or the infinite wisdom of putting Chjatard and Roncalli in the same sectional when Chatard bumped up to 4A.  Enrollment will end up taking care of Covenant Christian and Park Tudor most likely the next time around, so it's likely to be a fairly moot point in the next year or so.

Appreciate that!  😆

1 hour ago, US31 said:

For the record...any SF discussion I particpate in is supposed to begin with DON'T FORGET ABOUT WEBO!!!  🤪

My issue with 1A is you could very well end up with a yo-yo situation of P/Ps moving up and down "taking turns" in 1A.  Lutheran, LCC, CC...

Shrinking 1A down to 32 would bump some of these schools up to 2A.  I don't think its unrealistic to move any other P/P up into the 33-?? 2A.

You can all leave us out of this... 😆

We have been in 3A going on 3 years... We will more than likely be back to 2A in the fall of 2024.

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On 5/23/2023 at 8:34 AM, jets said:

Because they have obvious built-in advantages over their public 1A counterparts . 

In fact, having “obvious built-in advantages” over competitors is hardly exclusive to PPs. From demographics to socioeconomic factors, no 2 schools are the same. The SF is the best way to address competitive imbalances because it only moves a school up if it has demonstrated that it can use those advantages to achieve disproportionate success in their class. Why on earth would you treat Indy Lutheran the same as you treat Bishop Noll? A multiplier or an automatic class bump are solutions to a “problem” that actually doesn’t exist in many PPs.

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On 5/23/2023 at 10:15 AM, Titan32 said:

You and I have been making the same argument (for many years it would seem) but haven't been reading each other's posts.  I was calling it "effective enrollment", but describing the same issue in the same way as you.  I hadn't heard the term clearing house but it makes a lot of sense.  My kids attend Gibson Southern and as it is a rural 3A school in an area with solid employment opportunities, therefore the number of "free and assisted" kids is low comparatively across the state.  That isn't to say "free and assisted" kids are always the "never going to participate in anything" kids, but we all understand it is a factor.  All of that said, GS is going to have better participation rates than a lot of public 3A schools.  I have done a non-scientific poll with my 4 kids and they say it's anywhere from 15-30% of kids that would fall into the "don't participate in anything category".  In my mind this is the biggest reason why enrollment-based classification doesn't work and why there is such a huge disparity in success for equally "enrolled" P/Ps.  Folks will always take this argument into a ditch with feeder system analysis and recruiting talk etc. etc.  That is all just noise. There are privates and publics who both do all of the little things well to make a program great....but when all things are equal the P/P has a HUGE advantage out of the gate given the enrollment type disparity that they don't like to talk about.

 

 

my son just graduated from MD.  At honors day they announced all the activities that every graduate participated in.  Now, I didn't make it a point to count but based on what I heard/saw I would say that the MD class of 2023 had between 10-15% of their graduates that fell into the "don't participate in anything category".  I could be off on that %, but I'd say it is fairly close.

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I dislike all of this "leveling the playing field" nonsense. Whatever happened to embracing a challenge and working your butt off to beat your opponents. This whiny attitude of other team's winning too much and need bumped up does a disservice to the teams that do things the right way regardless of socioeconomic factors, especially at the small school level.

Pioneer, as well as a number of other teams, had their heads caved in by LCC for several years in a row in the tournament. Finally in 2016 when they beat them, it was an awesome moment for our team and community that really sparked a good few year run for us. Pioneer has a garbage field, old equipment and little administrative support. They also have ~ 50% Free and Reduced Lunch rate, but in general have been successful since the late 90's. Their feeder program runs the same offense from youth league through high school and several high school coaches also help with the younger levels. 

Like every small school we will have ebbs and flows of talent, but in general we are successful due to the system we have in place. There are many examples of other teams/communities doing this across the state. It is a shame that instead of rewarding this "commitment to consistence", we instead reward the ineptitude of other programs by enabling this woe is me attitude.

If you don't want to get beat, get better.

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14 minutes ago, Wildcat1992 said:

my son just graduated from MD.  At honors day they announced all the activities that every graduate participated in.  Now, I didn't make it a point to count but based on what I heard/saw I would say that the MD class of 2023 had between 10-15% of their graduates that fell into the "don't participate in anything category".  I could be off on that %, but I'd say it is fairly close.

Trust me...it's not in the same universe as GS.  All one has to do is walk through a lunch...down a hall...attend a Grand March.  I would still make the case that MD and GS are very close in terms of effective enrollment.  Again, very non-scientific and I understand the scrutiny such an opinion might bring, but it's the biggest factor and I believe most folks can see it.  The homogeneity of any group/club/school/church where people chose or pay to be a part of it....is always far greater than the general population.   It's just common sense unless you're the one lining your trophy case, then it is because of hard work and fantastic coaching.

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44 minutes ago, Wildcat1992 said:

my son just graduated from MD.  At honors day they announced all the activities that every graduate participated in.  Now, I didn't make it a point to count but based on what I heard/saw I would say that the MD class of 2023 had between 10-15% of their graduates that fell into the "don't participate in anything category".  I could be off on that %, but I'd say it is fairly close.

I would estimate that is pretty close to the "non-participant student" numbers at Memorial as well. 

 

24 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

Trust me...it's not in the same universe as GS.  All one has to do is walk through a lunch...down a hall...attend a Grand March.  I would still make the case that MD and GS are very close in terms of effective enrollment.  Again, very non-scientific and I understand the scrutiny such an opinion might bring, but it's the biggest factor and I believe most folks can see it.  The homogeneity of any group/club/school/church where people chose or pay to be a part of it....is always far greater than the general population.   It's just common sense unless you're the one lining your trophy case, then it is because of hard work and fantastic coaching.

So, if we use Wildcat1992's 10% for NPS that would give MD an effective enrollment of 450. If GS and MD are very close in effective enrollment, then GS would have a NPS percentage of 35% (450 / 700 = 0.64). Does that seem fair?

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2 minutes ago, tango said:

I would estimate that is pretty close to the "non-participant student" numbers at Memorial as well. 

 

So, if we use Wildcat1992's 10% for NPS that would give MD an effective enrollment of 450. If GS and MD are very close in effective enrollment, then GS would have a NPS percentage of 35% (450 / 700 = 0.64). Does that seem fair?

I'm going to say it's close.

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19 hours ago, jets said:

Of course ...more students = more $$ . I get that. 

Anyone on message boards will pick apart any little thing - but I think the point is pretty clear as far as advantages p/p's have over their public counterparts - thus my feelings for just an "auto-bump" and be DONE with the success factor. 

Oh....AND SEED THE D#@$ SECTIONALS ALREADY! And none of this "only top 2" bologna - do the entire thing - GIVE SOME CREDENCE to a good regular season. 

 

But what is a good regular season? Fort Wayne Luers went 4-5 in the regular season, not a good regular season. They won the sectional and a regional. How do you factor in a 2A or 1A team with a schedule full of 4A and 5A schools. (I agree with you on seeding and think it should happen, just trying to show the problem the IHSAA probably has with it)

The problem is with a lot of the conferences in Indiana, especially for smaller private schools, is they play a lot of bigger schools and their record doesn't look great heading into the playoffs. There are just too many factors for the IHSAA to take into account that my guess is they don't want to mess with because its so much easier to just draw ping pong balls out and write down names of schools. For that reason, I don't see the seeding of sectionals ever happening. I would love for it to happen. What we have right now is just too easy for the IHSAA to do to change it. Also like previously stated, if they change it for football, they have to change it for all the other sports throughout the year, and if football alone was too much work, all those other sports would be even more work. Everyone within the IHSAA would need an even bigger raise.

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45 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

Trust me...it's not in the same universe as GS.  All one has to do is walk through a lunch...down a hall...attend a Grand March.  I would still make the case that MD and GS are very close in terms of effective enrollment.  Again, very non-scientific and I understand the scrutiny such an opinion might bring, but it's the biggest factor and I believe most folks can see it.  The homogeneity of any group/club/school/church where people chose or pay to be a part of it....is always far greater than the general population.   It's just common sense unless you're the one lining your trophy case, then it is because of hard work and fantastic coaching.

OMG - Mr. 32 and I agree on a subject - I have for years called this the "hallway test" !

5 minutes ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

But what is a good regular season? Fort Wayne Luers went 4-5 in the regular season, not a good regular season. They won the sectional and a regional. How do you factor in a 2A or 1A team with a schedule full of 4A and 5A schools. (I agree with you on seeding and think it should happen, just trying to show the problem the IHSAA probably has with it)

The problem is with a lot of the conferences in Indiana, especially for smaller private schools, is they play a lot of bigger schools and their record doesn't look great heading into the playoffs. There are just too many factors for the IHSAA to take into account that my guess is they don't want to mess with because its so much easier to just draw ping pong balls out and write down names of schools. For that reason, I don't see the seeding of sectionals ever happening. I would love for it to happen. What we have right now is just too easy for the IHSAA to do to change it. Also like previously stated, if they change it for football, they have to change it for all the other sports throughout the year, and if football alone was too much work, all those other sports would be even more work. Everyone within the IHSAA would need an even bigger raise.

Wrestling does it every year.

It.is.really.not.that.hard

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4 minutes ago, jets said:

OMG - Mr. 32 and I agree on a subject - I have for years called this the "hallway test" !

Wrestling does it every year.

It.is.really.not.that.hard

You also wrestle about 35 matches before Sectionals in wrestling. Probably gonna see every kid you're gonna wrestle in the sectional before it gets there to help with seeding.

I'm all for playing 35 games before the sectionals starts for football, I just don't think a high schoolers body can make it that many games.

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3 hours ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

You also wrestle about 35 matches before Sectionals in wrestling. Probably gonna see every kid you're gonna wrestle in the sectional before it gets there to help with seeding.

I'm all for playing 35 games before the sectionals starts for football, I just don't think a high schoolers body can make it that many games.

Not always....and yet- us dumb wrestling coaches can still figure it out. 

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15 minutes ago, jets said:

Not always....and yet- us dumb wrestling coaches can still figure it out. 

I would really like to hear - from the perspective of someone who deals with seeding as a routine part of the sport - what are the obstacles preventing seeding in football?

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29 minutes ago, Bobref said:

I would really like to hear - from the perspective of someone who deals with seeding as a routine part of the sport - what are the obstacles preventing seeding in football?

Two short answers: closed conferences and logistics. 

The SAC and SIAC have no games against outside opponents. There might be more conferences that I am unaware of that also fall in this category. Last fall had 6-3 Jasper, Ev Memorial, and Boonville. Jasper beat EM in week 1, but BV had no opponent that played an SIAC school. So coaches would have to go off a ‘hunch.’ 

Honest question. When do the wrestling seeding meetings take place? Football plays week 9 Friday night. When would seeds and pairings be determined? I don’t know a football coach that would want to wait until Sunday. Even Saturday afternoon or evening would be late for game prep for many of them

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3 hours ago, Bobref said:

I would really like to hear - from the perspective of someone who deals with seeding as a routine part of the sport - what are the obstacles preventing seeding in football?

 

15 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Does the IFCA have an official position on seeding?

 

2 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

Two short answers: closed conferences and logistics. 

The SAC and SIAC have no games against outside opponents. There might be more conferences that I am unaware of that also fall in this category. Last fall had 6-3 Jasper, Ev Memorial, and Boonville. Jasper beat EM in week 1, but BV had no opponent that played an SIAC school. So coaches would have to go off a ‘hunch.’ 

Honest question. When do the wrestling seeding meetings take place? Football plays week 9 Friday night. When would seeds and pairings be determined? I don’t know a football coach that would want to wait until Sunday. Even Saturday afternoon or evening would be late for game prep for many of them

Ok I’ll try and respond to all these with one post:

1. I believe the IFCA has tried to push forward “only seed the top 2” in each sectional…which is better than nothing- but still kind of the lazy way out. 
 

2. As far as closed conferences and no common opponents- you simply have to set seeding criteria and go with it. It may leave some “head-scratchers” - but ultimately it’s better than 1-9 being in the Championship game while 8-1 goes home. 
In wrestling- if head to head and no commons, you go to past performance (if applicable- Past State placer)- obviously this wouldn’t happen for football. Then win %, etc…

Football would need to set their own- but it could follow something similar. 
 

3. I honestly have no idea what the obstacles are from seeding- except the fact that half of the football coaches don’t want it because they could “luck out” and get the “good draw” or whatever. To me I just want some value to a good regular season….

Sorry for the choppy messages/response- trying to type on a smartphone 

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On 5/22/2023 at 1:42 PM, foxbat said:

I like the idea of the lookback or trending forecasting model as opposed to just a set 2-year snapshot.  Ultimately, you want programs to move up to a next level because their PROGRAM is ascending and not just because a couple of teams did so in a couple of years.

The main reason that I suspect that most people who think that 2-year is too short and argue for 4-year isn't specifically because it's accurate, but because 1) it's better than 2-year in looking at program ascendancy as opposed to just limited team success and 2) it's easy to implement, as well as explain, than the lookback or trending modeling might be.

 

Edit:  BTW, Scecina is a school that got bumped and didn't win a state final in doing so ... 1A to 2A with a pair of red rings.  Happened in the first implementation of SF bump ups.

City Speed 

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17 hours ago, jets said:

 

 

Ok I’ll try and respond to all these with one post:

1. I believe the IFCA has tried to push forward “only seed the top 2” in each sectional…which is better than nothing- but still kind of the lazy way out. 
 

2. As far as closed conferences and no common opponents- you simply have to set seeding criteria and go with it. It may leave some “head-scratchers” - but ultimately it’s better than 1-9 being in the Championship game while 8-1 goes home. 
In wrestling- if head to head and no commons, you go to past performance (if applicable- Past State placer)- obviously this wouldn’t happen for football. Then win %, etc…

Football would need to set their own- but it could follow something similar. 
 

3. I honestly have no idea what the obstacles are from seeding- except the fact that half of the football coaches don’t want it because they could “luck out” and get the “good draw” or whatever. To me I just want some value to a good regular season….

Sorry for the choppy messages/response- trying to type on a smartphone 

Back to the Cluster System?

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Get rid of the success factor. 
 

class sports was created to give more teams and smaller schools opportunity at post-season success. Success factor was then implemented to slow private school domination.  Has that happened? Idk

Tweaking the system should end. Class sports is enough. Stop punishing kids who had little(or nothing) to do with said school’s success

 

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2 hours ago, RingLeader said:

Get rid of the success factor. 
 

class sports was created to give more teams and smaller schools opportunity at post-season success. Success factor was then implemented to slow private school domination.  Has that happened? Idk

Tweaking the system should end. Class sports is enough. Stop punishing kids who had little(or nothing) to do with said school’s success

 

The flaw of the enrollment only classification is there is no accounting for differences in population. While the target may be the private schools, the fact is the 1200 students in one of those buildings is nothing like the 1200 students in a public school. 

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2 hours ago, Irishman said:

The flaw of the enrollment only classification is there is no accounting for differences in population. While the target may be the private schools, the fact is the 1200 students in one of those buildings is nothing like the 1200 students in a public school. 

THIS ^^^^^

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7 hours ago, Irishman said:

The flaw of the enrollment only classification is there is no accounting for differences in population. While the target may be the private schools, the fact is the 1200 students in one of those buildings is nothing like the 1200 students in a public school. 

You do realize there is no p/p school in Indiana with 1200 students, right?

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