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Two State Championships in the Success Factor Era


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It's Friday during the season during the regional round, so I should just keep this for a month, but in the spirit of driving site traffic to the max, I want to float my big idea for the week. (If only the website had the functionality to open threads at a future specified date ... I digress!)

If a team accumulates seven or more Success Factor Points (twl state championships or a championship and championship appearance) during a single period, that team should be moved two classes higher.

I think only a few teams have won back to back in the same classification period since the inception of the system: LCC, Chatard, Cathedral???

In most cases, the two class bump is just accelerating the inevitable and likely increasing competition in one class higher.

Thoughts and thinks? 

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7 minutes ago, PDB26 said:

The system is kind of bogus anyway and borderline punitive. Though, I guess that would be made more obvious if the system bumped schools up by two classes.

Statistically, ignoring basically all other real world factors and common sense, teams should only win a sectional about every decade and state championship every half century. 

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11 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Statistically, ignoring basically all other real world factors and common sense, teams should only win a sectional about every decade and state championship every half century. 

I know. Just waiting for the IHSAA to do the right thing and success-factor Center Grove to Ohio.

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1 hour ago, foxbat said:

Who had under on 20 minutes? :classic_smile:

Sorry…I’m out of emojis for today.  Still, love the comment.

1 hour ago, PDB26 said:

I know. Just waiting for the IHSAA to do the right thing and success-factor Center Grove to Ohio.

Another comment I wish I could “emoji”.  Well done, sir.

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1 hour ago, WWFan said:

While i agree the success factor needs fixed I don't think this does any good. Don't think we've had a team go from 1 to 2A and win state. Could be wrong. So bumping them to 3A would be a little much IMO

I agree.  The success factor still needs tweaking but I believe it’s the best solution. I strongly disagreed at its inception, admittedly.

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2 hours ago, WWFan said:

While i agree the success factor needs fixed I don't think this does any good. Don't think we've had a team go from 1 to 2A and win state. Could be wrong. So bumping them to 3A would be a little much IMO

The only team that ever got close to this was LCC which has been SF'd twice.  Currently the only 1A team to do this.  Ended up in 2A back in 2013 and lost a second round sectional game to the eventual 2A state runner-up by four points and then, the next year, ended up losing to the eventual 2A state champ in semi-state by three points in 2014.  Moved back down to 1A in 2015, then back to 2A in 2021.  Since then, LCC's won three back-to-back-to-back sectionals in 2A.

Pioneer had some mixed result in their three-year stay in 2A with a a first-game sectional ousting in their first year, a semi-state loss to 2A runner up in the second year, and a sectional championship loss in their third year.  Since returning to 1A they've been bounced in the first sectional game for the last two years.

Scecina, the poster child for "no blue, screw you, move up," ended up with increased enrollment that kept them in 2A.  In the last decade or so in 2A, they've managed three sectional titles and two regionals.

Linton, which like Scecina, ended up staying in 2A based on enrollment, has picked up a regional title last season.

Lutheran, doing the COVID mambo, may end up like WeBo with three straight blue rings in a class before being bumped.

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If teams win state in a two year period (at least in the lower classes) its because they have a really special player on their team or a special class that wins it usually around their Junior year. Rather than letting them coast through another state championship, and then letting the poor underclassmen who have to fill those huge shoes in the next class happen, I think if you win a state championship you should just bump to the next class for the following year. Keep the rest of the success factor in place, because I honestly I think for the most part it works, but just add that little piece. Yes you will have to reclassify every year and realign but if it balances out competition and the classes I think its worth it. 

 

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1 hour ago, Lysander said:

I agree.  The success factor still needs tweaking but I believe it’s the best solution. I strongly disagreed at its inception, admittedly.

I don’t think they should do it at all, really.  Just let teams compete and let the chips fall where they may.

But, if they’re going to do it, they need to figure out a way around the problem of a team having an uncharacteristic run of success based on an abnormally good class or two.  That kind of shafts the normal classes that come up behind them.

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22 minutes ago, MHSTigerFan said:

I don’t think they should do it at all, really.  Just let teams compete and let the chips fall where they may.

But, if they’re going to do it, they need to figure out a way around the problem of a team having an uncharacteristic run of success based on an abnormally good class or two.  That kind of shafts the normal classes that come up behind them.

So what about the opposite problem? When a team is more then just a good player or class. LCC and Lutheran don't play a single 1A team and im sure both know neither would. Both routinely punch above their class. Lutheran beat #1 2A by 30. Do you just say "you've proved your above it....stay in 2A until your team has a win % around .300 over a 4 yr span"? 

Also before someone starts giving a history lesson im just listing them 2 since they have been only teams just have these types of dynasties since I've paid close attention. Sheridan was before my time and if Linton could've got over the hump more im sure I'd mention them too. 

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4 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Statistically, ignoring basically all other real world factors and common sense, teams should only win a sectional about every decade and state championship every half century. 

Equally absurd. There are eight teams in each Sectional. C'mon man, you are really reaching... Hope this is sarcasm...

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43 minutes ago, WWFan said:

So what about the opposite problem? When a team is more then just a good player or class. LCC and Lutheran don't play a single 1A team and im sure both know neither would. Both routinely punch above their class. Lutheran beat #1 2A by 30. Do you just say "you've proved your above it....stay in 2A until your team has a win % around .300 over a 4 yr span"? 

Also before someone starts giving a history lesson im just listing them 2 since they have been only teams just have these types of dynasties since I've paid close attention. Sheridan was before my time and if Linton could've got over the hump more im sure I'd mention them too. 

LCC ended up not playing 1A teams more recently because they got booted out of Hoosier Heartland, which at the time was an all-1A conference, and ended up in the Hoosier which only had a single 1A team at the time that LCC entered ... Sheridan ... which had spent the better part of a dozen years as the only 1A school in the Hoosier.  Sheridan simultaneously departed the Hoosier and went to the old conference that LCC had been booted out of.  In the time that Sheridan was the only 1A team in the Hoosier, they amassed three outright or shared HC titles, along with three blue rings, one red ring, two regional titles, and a sectional title.

Incidentally, I think Pioneer's success gets eclipsed due to LCC.  If you look at how many seasons LCC and Pioneer finished #1/#2 or both in top four and ended each other's seasons, I think Pioneer would be in the discussion as much as Sheridan and LCC.  With that said, like Sheridan, Pioneer's dynasty implications have diminished more recently.

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1 hour ago, MHSTigerFan said:

I don’t think they should do it at all, really.  Just let teams compete and let the chips fall where they may.

But, if they’re going to do it, they need to figure out a way around the problem of a team having an uncharacteristic run of success based on an abnormally good class or two.  That kind of shafts the normal classes that come up behind them.

I don’t necessarily disagree but, for good or ill, something was inevitable.  I favor this vs the alternative automatic one class bump for P/Ps (which I actually originally favored).  I’d also add it gives teams a chance to win in the class above….which so far only you guys have done in 3A to 4A. 

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1 hour ago, WWFan said:

So what about the opposite problem? When a team is more then just a good player or class. LCC and Lutheran don't play a single 1A team and im sure both know neither would. Both routinely punch above their class. Lutheran beat #1 2A by 30. Do you just say "you've proved your above it....stay in 2A until your team has a win % around .300 over a 4 yr span"? 

Also before someone starts giving a history lesson im just listing them 2 since they have been only teams just have these types of dynasties since I've paid close attention. Sheridan was before my time and if Linton could've got over the hump more im sure I'd mention them too. 

If I were the benevolent dictator of the IHSAA, I'd just categorize schools by enrollment.  But I'd also get rid of classes entirely in some sports (but not football).

But, if you're going to have a success factor, then the scenario you're describing is what it's made for.  I'm not saying I have the perfect answer for how to accomplish this.  I think IFCA recommended it be on a 4-year cycle rather than a 2-year.  That seems to make more sense to me -- because it requires the school to punch above its weight for an ongoing period before moving up.

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I encourage everyone to go and take a look at a little 1A public school team in Pittsburgh (Aliquippa) that voluntarily plays at the 3A level. They have won multiple 3A titles and, after being success factored up to 4A, won another state title. They were on the verge of being success factored up again to 5A (6A is the largest PA classification). They were prepared to sue the state to keep them at 4A. Again, this is a 1A public school. They also have 3 former players who are in the NFL HOF. This is a town and school that lives and breathes football. It permeates the culture. Nearly every kid dreams of playing for the HS team from the time they can understand what it means. This is a school of about 120 kids (boys and girls combined) playing and winning at 4A. 

Success factor works until it doesn’t. There will always be people with a good case for why any system is “unfair” (hint: nothing is perfect). The Aliquippa story is why I will continuously shake my head and laugh when people want to use success factor to punish teams while not looking inward at their programs to see what is broken. Again, this is a public school. Single A. Punches well above its weight. Why? Take some time and read up on them. What you will find is that it is 100% because of the kids drive and desire to be champions even against the toughest of odds. 

Even if you think I am a buffoon for my reasoning (you won’t be the first and my feeling won’t be hurt), read up on this school and team, it’s a great story. 

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51 minutes ago, foxbat said:

LCC ended up not playing 1A teams more recently because they got booted out of Hoosier Heartland, which at the time was an all-1A conference, and ended up in the Hoosier which only had a single 1A team at the time that LCC entered ... Sheridan ... which had spent the better part of a dozen years as the only 1A school in the Hoosier.  Sheridan simultaneously departed the Hoosier and went to the old conference that LCC had been booted out of.  In the time that Sheridan was the only 1A team in the Hoosier, they amassed three outright or shared HC titles, along with three blue rings, one red ring, two regional titles, and a sectional title.

Incidentally, I think Pioneer's success gets eclipsed due to LCC.  If you look at how many seasons LCC and Pioneer finished #1/#2 or both in top four and ended each other's seasons, I think Pioneer would be in the discussion as much as Sheridan and LCC.  With that said, like Sheridan, Pioneer's dynasty implications have diminished more recently.

I first heard of LCC when they pounded Perry Central in 1999. So all i rememeber is LCC being the 1A bully. Haha. Now its Lutheran and im sure starting next year possibly Providence or Park Tudor if enrollment doesnt push em back up. 99 is close to when I started really following the sport (graduated in 04). I agree with alot of what this board would change with SF. I hope it happens. I know how I'd do it but it just leads to arguments. 

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8 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

I encourage everyone to go and take a look at a little 1A public school team in Pittsburgh (Aliquippa) that voluntarily plays at the 3A level. They have won multiple 3A titles and, after being success factored up to 4A, won another state title. They were on the verge of being success factored up again to 5A (6A is the largest PA classification). They were prepared to sue the state to keep them at 4A. Again, this is a 1A public school. They also have 3 former players who are in the NFL HOF. This is a town and school that lives and breathes football. It permeates the culture. Nearly every kid dreams of playing for the HS team from the time they can understand what it means. This is a school of about 120 kids (boys and girls combined) playing and winning at 4A. 

Success factor works until it doesn’t. There will always be people with a good case for why any system is “unfair” (hint: nothing is perfect). The Aliquippa story is why I will continuously shake my head and laugh when people want to use success factor to punish teams while not looking inward at their programs to see what is broken. Again, this is a public school. Single A. Punches well above its weight. Why? Take some time and read up on them. What you will find is that it is 100% because of the kids drive and desire to be champions even against the toughest of odds. 

Even if you think I am a buffoon for my reasoning (you won’t be the first and my feeling won’t be hurt), read up on this school and team, it’s a great story. 

It matters nothing to me if it's private or public. It really don't. Privates just happen to be the 1A bully most of the century and that's what I know/follow. I think there are cases where you just gotta sit a team down and say you've proved your point here....try going to Xa class for a bit. We can reevaluate if you guys can't hack it. Again....my stuff is mostly about 1A. You big boys are outta my knowledge pool

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4 minutes ago, WWFan said:

I first heard of LCC when they pounded Perry Central in 1999. So all i rememeber is LCC being the 1A bully. Haha. Now its Lutheran and im sure starting next year possibly Providence or Park Tudor if enrollment doesnt push em back up. 99 is close to when I started really following the sport (graduated in 04). I agree with alot of what this board would change with SF. I hope it happens. I know how I'd do it but it just leads to arguments. 

I guess it's all relative.  In the decade after that season, LCC had one sectional title and, in the decade leading up to it they also had one sectional title.

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3 minutes ago, foxbat said:

I guess it's all relative.  In the decade after that season, LCC had one sectional title and, in the decade leading up to it they also had one sectional title.

Well being from south im just saying that's first I heard of em. More giving a time frame of my understanding of the sport. 

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3 hours ago, MHSTigerFan said:

I don’t think they should do it at all, really.  Just let teams compete and let the chips fall where they may.

But, if they’re going to do it, they need to figure out a way around the problem of a team having an uncharacteristic run of success based on an abnormally good class or two.  That kind of shafts the normal classes that come up behind them.

That's an easy solution actually. Look at the previous four years of Success Points for a team. Throw out the highest point total and the lowest point total. The remaining two point totals are your Median Points. Use those to determine classification (if the goal is to keep the current system relatively in place).

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1 hour ago, Just a dad said:

I encourage everyone to go and take a look at a little 1A public school team in Pittsburgh (Aliquippa) that voluntarily plays at the 3A level. They have won multiple 3A titles and, after being success factored up to 4A, won another state title. They were on the verge of being success factored up again to 5A (6A is the largest PA classification). They were prepared to sue the state to keep them at 4A. Again, this is a 1A public school. They also have 3 former players who are in the NFL HOF. This is a town and school that lives and breathes football. It permeates the culture. Nearly every kid dreams of playing for the HS team from the time they can understand what it means. This is a school of about 120 kids (boys and girls combined) playing and winning at 4A. 

Success factor works until it doesn’t. There will always be people with a good case for why any system is “unfair” (hint: nothing is perfect). The Aliquippa story is why I will continuously shake my head and laugh when people want to use success factor to punish teams while not looking inward at their programs to see what is broken. Again, this is a public school. Single A. Punches well above its weight. Why? Take some time and read up on them. What you will find is that it is 100% because of the kids drive and desire to be champions even against the toughest of odds. 

Even if you think I am a buffoon for my reasoning (you won’t be the first and my feeling won’t be hurt), read up on this school and team, it’s a great story. 

Ditka’s school (among others) if I recall correctly.

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