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4A Regional Championship: East Central at Evansville Memorial


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20 minutes ago, tango said:

PROJECT A MATCHUP
[2023] East Central (St. Leon, IN) 35 (90%), [2023] Reitz [F. J.] (Evansville, IN) 14 (10%)

Interesting that both are 21 point margin of victories...

Applying a certainty to rating differences is a bit of guesswork anyway. You're just trying to match a bellcurve to a dataset. For transparency, I use a modified "ELO to Win Percentage" formula.

=1 / (1 + 10 ^(($margin)/ 30)) * 100

https://lacrossereference.com/2021/06/22/converting-elo-ratings-to-odds/

 

 

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24 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Interesting that both are 21 point margin of victories...

Applying a certainty to rating differences is a bit of guesswork anyway. You're just trying to match a bellcurve to a dataset. For transparency, I use a modified "ELO to Win Percentage" formula.

=1 / (1 + 10 ^(($margin)/ 30)) * 100

https://lacrossereference.com/2021/06/22/converting-elo-ratings-to-odds/

 

 

Patriot, can you see if you can get your predictor pinned again? I can never find it

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1 hour ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Interesting that both are 21 point margin of victories...

It did not surprise me. EC is a top 2-3 team in the state. They should be heavy favorites no matter who they play. If we can keep them from a running clock I'll be pretty happy.

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Memorial (9-3) (6-3 SIAC) 

Offense: 22 PPG 
Total yards: 263.1 YPG/ 56.6% pass/ 43.4% rush
Passing: 148.9 YPG/ 59.7 CP%/ 12.3 YPC/ 17 TD/ 6 INT
Rushing: 114.2 YPG/ 3.7 YPC/ 15 TDs 

Defense: 12.25 PPG
Total Yards: 220.4 YPG/ 43% pass/ 57% rush
Passing: 94.8 YPG/ 50.8 CP%/ 13.23 YPC/ 18 INT
Rushing: 125.8 YPC/ 4.11 YPC/ 5 fumrec 

 

East Central (12-0) (3-0 EIAC-big)
Offense: 44.4 PPG
Total Yards: 415.3 YPG/ 27%pass/ 73% rush
Passing: 112.2 YPC/ 70.8%/ 17.9 YPC/ 21 TD/ 1 INT
Rushing: 303.1 YPG/ 9.8 YPC/ 56 TDs
*Sectional Championship stats haven't been uploaded
Defense: 6.3 PPG
Total Yards: 157.7 YPG/ 66% pass/ 34% rush
Passing: 104 YPG/ 46.1 CP%/ 13.28 YPC/ 14 INT
Rushing: 53.7 YPG/ 1.99 YPC/ 6 fumrec

Livestream (IHSAAtv): https://www.ihsaatv.org/?B=746902

 

Preview 

Another year, another Memorial-East Central Regional matchup in Enlow for the third straight season. In 2021, Memorial won against East Central in an electrifying matchup in the 2H comeback by winning it 17-14. However, last year, East Central wasn’t phased and jumped out to a 28-0 lead at the half and ended up winning the game 35-21. And the Trojans went all the way to Lucas Oil to win the 4A State Championship for the third time in program history. This year? Memorial will host East Central again in Enlow, but the Trojans will be coming in as the defending state champion and looking to stay undefeated this season. 

Starting with East Central, the Trojans have been unphased the entire season by blowing out 11 of their 12 opponents. While winning another EIAC Big title only giving up 7 points in conference play. In Week 3 of the season, Moeller was the only team to have kept it close throughout the game, but lost by 10. However, East Central was pretty much in control of that game in the 2H. Martinsville in the semifinal gave East Central a scare, but the Trojans ended up winning that one by 36. The Trojans primarily run the ball in their games as about 73% of the yardage has come from the ground game. Thanks to their elusive RB (Miami-OH commit) who has averaged above 200 yards per game and close to 50 total touchdowns (National leader) this season. They also have a couple of players that have put up decent yardage too. While they like to run a lot, the Trojans are not afraid to pass behind their 3-year starter QB, who has put up over 1200 yards this year on 18 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. As his primary receiver has put up around 700 yards and 13 TDs and is committed to Western Michigan for football. Defensively, the Trojans are a beast on the field recording 6 shutouts, most recently in the sectional championship. On average, only allows 6.3 PPG and has only given more than 20 points against Martinsville and Moeller. The pass defense has been good for the Trojans only allowing 104.0 yards per game and has grabbed 14 interceptions. Their rush defense is the sweet spot they have, as they probably have one of the best rush defenses in the state, only allowing almost 54 yards per game and almost 2 yards per carry. They have only given 100+ yards in 2 games, but have multiple games holding opponents below 30 yards (5 games). The Trojans have also gotten 56.5 TFLS and 22 sacks this season. 

Memorial is coming off with their biggest win of the season, knocking off the undefeated and 4A #2 Reitz for the Sectional Championships. Which is their 4th title in 4A in a 5-year span up a class. It was also their 7th sectional championship in 8 years and 10th under HC Hurley. The Tigers have had an interesting season so far, starting off hot 6-0 and high as the #3 ranking and then losing 3 straight in the final third of the regular season. However, the Tigers have been without their starting QB since after Week 4 up until the semifinals, where he is now punting. But has been able to win 3-straight in the postseason. Offensively, the Tigers did start off, but it has been a mix of inconsistencies up until the postseason. The Tigers have been using their leading receiver as QB and have switched around a few spots. But so far in the postseason, the rushing game has been pretty well for the Tigers averaging over 150 yards so far. But overall has averaged around 114 YPG and 148.9 in passing. Defensively, the Tigers have been one of the top teams in the SIAC and 4A giving up 12.25 PPG and at one point it was around 7 PPG. Memorial’s passing defense has been one of their strongest areas all season only allowing around 95 yards per game and has been ballhawks around the ball. And has only given up 1 game over 170 yards and multiple sub-100 yards games throughout the season. On the other note, Memorial’s run defense has seen a lot of improvement compared to last season being one of the top run defenses in the SIAC, and held the top spot for a few weeks. It has taken a little dip facing some of the top rushing teams in the SIAC, but their last 2 opponents have been held to 125 rushing yards (Jasper) and 116 rushing yards (Reitz). Those teams were near the top in the SIAC all season. However, they will face a very tall task against one of the best-rushing teams in the state, East Central. The Tigers also have gathered up around 70 TFLs and 10 sacks, the Tigers also have one of the best LBs in 4A/State gathering up 163 tackles and 17 TFLs. And a very quick DE getting 18 TFL and 90 tackles first year on the DL. 
 

Edited by TigerFan20
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Does Memorial move to 3A next year or did last Friday’s Sectional win keep them in 4A for another 2 years? 

I’ve heard the Sectional win keeps them in 4A, but I’ve also heard they have to beat East Central to stay in 4A. Seems to be some confusion based on the new point system…

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4 minutes ago, SimpleWins said:

Does Memorial move to 3A next year or did last Friday’s Sectional win keep them in 4A for another 2 years? 

I’ve heard the Sectional win keeps them in 4A, but I’ve also heard they have to beat East Central to stay in 4A. Seems to be some confusion based on the new point system…

They will remain in 4A for another 2 years

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1 hour ago, hhpatriot04 said:

And what would propel the Tigers into 5A?

Win the 4A State Championship (4 points) and win a regional championship (2 points) in the 2024-2025 cycle to get the 6 points
or 
Back to Back State appearances in that span (2 Semi-State Championships, 3 points each) 

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22 hours ago, TigerFan20 said:

They will remain in 4A for another 2 years

They are 4A next year for sure. 

Doesn’t a rolling 2 year cycle start next year? 

2022 & 23 = 2 sectionals. 2 points.

If they lose in sectional 2024, then they would only have 1 point for 23&24. Then 3A in 2025.

I could be mistaken.

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8 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

They are 4A next year for sure. 

Doesn’t a rolling 2 year cycle start next year? 

2022 & 23 = 2 sectionals. 2 points.

If they lose in sectional 2024, then they would only have 1 point for 23&24. Then 3A in 2025.

I could be mistaken.

Did they change it? I’ve always assume it’s automatically set a 2 years staying in a class. Here is the link:

 

https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Tournament Success Factor.pdf

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Firstly, despite Memorial causing me to lose extremities in a freezing 2008 loss and then squashing the dreams of my kid back in 2009….and just generally doing it to every Chatard team they have played the last 15 years, I’m a huge fan of Memorial.

In part, as a massive underdog, I was rooting for Memorial against Reitz.  After watching the game I felt even more strongly about that.

With that, Southeast Indiana is the Rodney Dangerfield of Indiana HS football - NO RESPECT.  

Everybody NE, NW and SW p!sses and moans about not getting any respect.  

These are generally big@ss populations (I observe as a small town kid) crying about this….50-250,000 populations feeding into the various schools.

Just check out southeast Indiana.  20 squirrels, 10 deer and a school bus driving 3 miles between pickups on a gravel road. 

East Central is basically a P.O. Box that gets checked once a week.

And yet they are probably able to play Ben Davis and Center Grove within an inch of their lives this year.  Their easy win over Moeller v. Center Grove’s OT win seems to justify that.

That said, being the sole default Indiana suburb (other than Lawrenceburg and South Dearborn) for Cincinnati doesn’t hurt.  That considered, I really don’t think that has any d@mn thing to do with it.  

They just kick whatever @ss is put in front of them.

Still…love you guys at Memorial….
 

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6 hours ago, Lysander said:

Just check out southeast Indiana.  20 squirrels, 10 deer and a school bus driving 3 miles between pickups on a gravel road. 

East Central is basically a P.O. Box that gets checked once a week.

That is one big@$$ P.O. Box on I-74 I pass just before reaching the Ohio border!

dance-deer.gif

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Quote

Just check out southeast Indiana.  20 squirrels, 10 deer and a school bus driving 3 miles between pickups on a gravel road. 

East Central is basically a P.O. Box that gets checked once a week.

Outside of Lawrenceburg, Dearborn county is pretty rural and hasn't really changed a lot since I graduated back in 2000. The school enrollment is still about the same too. It's crazy how big EC's school district is in order for them to be 4A. It takes almost 45 minutes to drive from certain points of the school district.

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2 hours ago, Boiler Boog said:

Outside of Lawrenceburg, Dearborn county is pretty rural and hasn't really changed a lot since I graduated back in 2000. The school enrollment is still about the same too. It's crazy how big EC's school district is in order for them to be 4A. It takes almost 45 minutes to drive from certain points of the school district.

My Old Man owned several school bus routes in Franklin County. That’s how he, quite literally, smuggled me into the big elementary school in Brookville.  His declaration was that there was no damn way he would allow me to “sit my little @ss” on the wooden outhouse in our hometown/village/refugee camp of Metamora elementary school.  That’s why I only stop at Buc-ees when traveling south to this very day.

That said, there were certain homes on those Franklin County gravel roads you stayed WELL outside of shotgun range when picking up kids.

9 minutes ago, Slobberknocker said:

Center Grove has a few open dates next year. East Central should give them a call.

Another call may be happening as well based on what I’m hearing….

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4 hours ago, Lysander said:

My Old Man owned several school bus routes in Franklin County. That’s how he, quite literally, smuggled me into the big elementary school in Brookville.  His declaration was that there was no damn way he would allow me to “sit my little @ss” on the wooden outhouse in our hometown/village/refugee camp of Metamora elementary school.  That’s why I only stop at Buc-ees when traveling south to this very day.

That said, there were certain homes on those Franklin County gravel roads you stayed WELL outside of shotgun range when picking up kids.

Another call may be happening as well based on what I’m hearing….

Well hello Lysander, my old friend.... great to hear from you!

That's some good stuff....Metamora elementary....😄

Hope all is well and you're enjoying your Trojans season as much as I'm enjoying mine.

You couldn't be more spot on with your earlier post about SEI....but you will not hear anyone from the EIAC complain, we're happy to stay under the radar.

EC will be rebuilding next season, so assuming they move to 5A.....they will likely take some lumps in the post season. 

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