George Orwell 2

Football is a team sport (or one could even say it is a community sport).  Chatard could easily have had 2 or 3 fewer players recognized this year than it did.  The difference with Chatard is that there is a good (not necessarily great) player at every single position and 2 or 3 deep on the depth chart at every single position.  These recognitions are nice to have, but, give me the 10th best player in the class at every position and my team would win every game by 50.  

21 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

Does the state pay for it, or do parents pay Roncalli directly?  Just curious not making any points here.

It was my impression when speaking with my friends about it that they paid tuition like anyone else, but, I don't know for a fact.  

1 hour ago, Titan32 said:

We have a many of the attributes mentioned repeatedly on the GID that folks say it takes to be successful in football.  We work hard to maintain them.  We also have a good program for physically and mentally challenged kids (another factor in the enrollment at many publics).

Maybe someone from Roncalli can answer this question, but do the students in the STARS program count towards enrollment totals?  I believe that it is the only program in the archdiocese which provides Catholic education to students with learning disabilities, so, families from all over Indianapolis send their kids to Roncalli for it.  By all accounts, it is an excellent program.  Although, it has been quite some time now, I have had a few friends from the north deanery sends their kids there and everyone raves about it.    

30 minutes ago, Knightmare said:

There doesn't need to be competitive balance in COLLEGE football where teams RECRUIT against each other.  All of the colleges and universities have equal access to student athletes.  You're telling me Pike Central can go out and recruit all over the country like those college teams mentioned?  That logic doesn't make sense to me

My only point is that football lends itself to dominance by a few teams regardless of the level at which it is played.  There is something about the variables that lead to success in football which are difficult to replicate among more than a few teams.  I'm not sure why that is, just that it is a fact that exists for whatever reason.

On 11/30/2020 at 2:14 PM, Knightmare said:

Does anyone else see that this is a problem?  We have the same 4 champions in 6A and P/P are over represented in State Titles compared to the number of P/P schools in the state.  If you remove the Big 4 in 6A and all P/P from State Title leaders, here is your list:

. . . 

Mount Union, Wisconsin-Whitewater, Valdosta State, Northwest Missouri State, and North Dakota State all strenuously object to your position that there should be competitive balance in football.    

41 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

LOL....oh I know who the enemy is!

I don't recall you mentioning the groups that are trying to eliminate youth and high school football in that discussion.  Although, admittedly, it has been a long time.  

On 11/20/2020 at 5:32 PM, Titan32 said:

I recall it...I'm sure I rebutted some of it LOL.

You tilted at some windmills that day if I remember correctly.  🙂 

Nobody believes in us!  We'll show the world not to take us lightly.  

Hopefully, this is a competitive game.  Danville is on a roll, has a ton of talent, and should be really confident.  Chatard is on life support, talent is way down this year, and have struggled, especially on offense, the past few weeks.  This is probably the first time in a long time that Chatard is a big underdog going into Thanksgiving weekend.  But, they will play hard and with some luck can make a game of it.  Whichever team wins will be deserving.  Good luck to both.  Hoping for a safe competitive game with no injuries. 

2 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

A second problem with a multiplier is that it would be hard to quantify exactly what it should be. I thoroughly enjoyed @George Orwell 2's statistics refresher although he didn't draw a distinction between which variables are endogenous and exogeneous. (Nerd joke.) 

Lysander and some others may remember a dissertation I posted a few years ago on the impossibility of identifying endogenous and exogenous characteristics with respect to high school football.  For everyone's benefit, I will not repeat it here.   

6 hours ago, Lysander said:

Perhaps you and “George Orwell”  might best offer your skills to the IHSAA.

Thank you, Lysander.  I appreciate the sentiment and if it weren't for one unfortunate fact, I would do just that.  But . . . well, you know . . . I'm dead.  Sooooo . . . . . . yeah.  

16 hours ago, Esso Ayche said:

After slogging through this discussion over the past several days I thought I would do a little digging and give myself more background on the topic (I know, weird).  Admittedly, I am not an Indiana native, and over the past decade or so I've had to peruse my way through many-a websites, forums, almanacs, and more to try to keep pace with the ins, outs, abbreviations, and nicknames (I still can't read a STC thread on the EIAC to save my life)... let alone feel brave enough to post confidently in any PP-themed topic.  So today I did what I do best:  Look up a bunch of stuff, put it in a spreadsheet, and try to make sense of it.  Some (most? all?) of it may not be completely relevant to the topic at hand, but I at least want to share the empirical data that I was able to glean out of my research.  Frankly, it was very interesting to me and I'd hate for it to go go to waste for anyone who is like me... interested, but ignorant.  I'm assume much of this has very likely been covered in bits and pieces all over this forum over the years, but I feel compelled to share this non-biased information (these are those fact-things people keep talking about) to those that might appreciate it and may not be aware of everything out of this particular set of data.  This isn't a resolution, just information.

. . .

But what I find interesting is that the sectional champion piece of the pie really hasn't budged much (was 23% in 2010-2012 to 18% in 2013-2019).  The rest of the hardware take home, by round, has more than halved, but sectionals are still somewhat similar.  I can't quite wrap my head around what to infer from that yet. 

16 hours ago, Esso Ayche said:

TL;DR version... PPs are good at football, collectively.  SF dampened the top end of PP state champ dynasties.  Sometimes.

 

I don't disagree with your conclusion (that SF dampened the top end of PP . . .), but, your sample (2010-2012) is way too small.  In the 20 years prior to 2010 in Classes 1A - 4A, PP's won 46% of the state championships and 38% of the semi-state championships.  That is much different than the outcomes in 2010 - 2012 and much more closely resembles the long term reality of Indiana high school football.  Granted those are still high percentages for such a small group of schools, but, nowhere close to 100% and 80% from 2010 - 2012.  I am of the opinion that that was a unique time period in the history of PP football with only a few individual players (Jaylon Smith, the Martin brothers, and the Anthrop brothers, for instance) contributing significantly to those percentages.  In fact, one could pick a different 3 year period and end up with a much different perspective.  For example, 2004 - 2006 produced public school state champions 66% of the time and semi-state champions 66% of the time (Classes 1A - 4A).  In other words, from 2004 - 2006, PPs only won 33% of the state championships and 33% of the semi-state championships in Classes 1A - 4A.  Had you chosen that 3 year period instead you may have come to the conclusion that the SF actually helped PPs win more than they had previously not less.  Alas, that is not true, but, when undertaking a data driven analysis, which data sample one selects for comparison purposes is important.  Generally speaking, the larger the sample size the better.    

With respect to sectional championships, I suspect that of the different PPs who won those regional, semi-state, and state championships, many were in the same sectional.  I would guess that the vast majority of sectionals in Classes 1A - 4A do not have any PPs in them and the ones that do probably have multiple PPs in them.  

Notwithstanding the (very mild) constructive feedback, I appreciate someone bringing a data focused analysis to the discussion.  Your opinion was very well written and, as I mentioned above, I think you arrived at the correct conclusion. 

I think we can all agree that there are multiple variables which lead certain high schools to football success and enrollment is only one of those.  So, let's represent Football Success in the form of an equation with the sum of multiple variables equaling Football Success.  

x + y + z = Football Success

Now, I think we can all also agree that each variable is not equal.  Some variables are more determinate than other variables.  Therefore, each variable must have its own coefficient which represents the extent to which that variable affects Football Success.  

Ax + By + Cz = Football Success

But, I think we can all further agree that there aren't three variables involved here; there are dozens of variables to take into consideration (e.g. head coach, youth league, depth of interest, tradition, community support, quality of players, etc., etc., etc.).  Therefore, a more accurate representation of the Football Success equation would be as follows:  

Ax + By + Cz + Dn + Eo + Fp + Gq + Hr + Is + Jt + Ku + Lv + Mw = Football Success

The solution proposed in this thread changes the Football Success equation to:

Ax + By + Cz + Dn + Eo + Fp + (2G)q + Hr + Is + Jt + Ku + Lv + Mw = Football Success

I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that this solution will not bring about the distributive justice desired by its proponents.  Just a guess.  

4 really good teams left in the 3A bracket.  No way that there is a 20 pt difference between Chatard and the other three schools.  I expect two good games this weekend and another on Thanksgiving weekend.  Hopefully, the Trojans will still be playing . . . actually, I hope someone, anyone will still be playing.

3 hours ago, BCstate said:

Concordia was a very good team and gave Chatard all they could handle. 

Agree.  Really impressed with Concordia last night.  They had a lot of talent on the field.  Not enough players, but, the ones that were out there were really good.  Fortunately, we were able to make up the difference with depth.  Congrats on a good year.  It is too bad that these two teams won't meet again next year.  

On 11/11/2020 at 2:34 PM, Patriot 74 said:

Probably not the best place for this discussion, but..........both were/are 12-0 at this point in the season.  So I think Saturday will be the measuring tool.  HH last year was the best team in 3A not named Chatard, and they quite possibly were the best team (Chatard) of any class.  

Now, now, there were quite a few schools that were better than Chatard last year.  Let's not make Chatard out to be this big boogey man.  We are just a simple small Catholic school trying to make our community better through good religious education, service to the community, and casual athletic competitions.  Good luck to both Southridge and Lawrenceburg this weekend.  Glad the game is on Saturday.  I am looking forward to seeing Southridge's speed on display and Lawrenceburg's quarterback is always fun to watch.  Here is hoping for a clean well-played game with no injuries.  

6 minutes ago, CaptainHook said:

 "And a football crazed community that really supports this team."

Hmmmmmmmm.  I am beginning to sense a theme.  

26 minutes ago, tango said:

I agree.  Let it fly.  One of the greatest GID posts I've ever seen.  

The year: 2037. The week after Thanksgiving. Early evening; it’s dark. 
The scene: A farm house. 8 Publics are playing cards around a table; other Publics are drinking and talking. The mood is festive. Three P/P’s are crouched outside of the window watching the festivities. 
_______________________
Jimtown: What game are we playing?
Linton-Stockton: How about 5 card draw?
Northwood: Sounds good.
Reitz: Ok, I’ll deal.
Adams Central: It sure is fun around here this time of year.
New Palestine: Yep, another great state championship weekend for us.
Lowell: Sure beats the old days.
Heritage Hills: No kidding. Remember how we used to lose to all of the P/P’s?
NorthWood: Yeah. That was terrible.
Jimtown: Not anymore. This was 10 in a row for us. 
Lowell: I know. 3 for us. And 9 straight finals appearances.
Reitz: Don’t remind me. You’ve beaten us three years in a row. 
Lowell: Yeah, but you won the three prior to that. 
Reitz: True. Oh well. You can beat us every year for all you did back in 2025.
Lowell: Ahh, the war of 2025. It’s too bad it cost so many lives.
Jimtown: Yep, programs lost, AD’s fired. The carnage was unbelievable.
Fishers: What are you guys talking about?
Western Boone: The war of 2025. Don’t you remember?
NorthWood: He was pretty young back then. Linton, you explain what happened. 
Linton-Stockton: OK. Back before the IHSAA banned P/P’s from participating in football, they used to beat us constantly. For years and years, we were their punching bags. We tried everything. Success bumps, multipliers, economic adjustments, bumping them all up a class. Nothing worked. They kept winning. It didn’t matter what class we put them in.
Jimtown: Yep. 2025, that was the year everything came to a head. P/P's won the state championship in all six classes. Carmel was the only Public in the finals and Cathedral beat them 62 to 7.
Reitz: All of the Publics got together and mutinied. A huge demonstration took place at GID which turned into a mass riot. Publics and P/P’s viciously attacked each other. There was bloodshed, bruised egos, damaged expectations, and destroyed reputations. The IHSAA was finally forced to do something to avoid further injuries.

Linton-Stockton: The P/P’s weren’t allowed to play football anymore!
Jimtown: That’s right. There was some discussion of putting them all in the same class but we all thought that would cheapen our tournaments. So me, Lowell, Linton-Stockton, and most of the others here, led the coup which resulted in elimination of all football programs in P/P schools. It was a beautiful day when it happened. 
Linton-Stockton:  Yep, it was beautiful.  We haven’t lost since. 
Jimtown: Well, I have to give you credit, Lin. You have a great coach, a very good feeder program, and a really committed community supporting you. You deserve the success you’ve had. 
Linton-Stockton: Thanks, Jim. See, Fishers? Look around the room at all of the success. We’ve won 11 straight state championships. NorthWood, 11 straight regionals, 8 semi-states and 5 state championships; Heritage Hills, 11 straight finals appearances, 6 state championships; Adams Central, 11 regionals, 6 semi-states. That is some serious success we’re talking about. 
Reitz: Yeah. Look at Jimtown for example. Sure they won 4 state championships under the old system, but since we instituted the new system in 2026, they’ve won 7 out of the last 11. That wouldn’t have been possible if the P/P’s were still around. 
Tri-West Hendricks: True. But you have to admit there are extenuating factors. 
West Lafayette: What do you mean?
Tri-West Hendricks: I don’t mean to be bitter. But we’ve been to semi-state 9 times and have lost to Jimtown each time. They have a higher median income than we do. We have way more students in the federal lunch program than they do. Many of our students live on farms and are unable to play football. I respect what they have accomplished but it is hardly a level playing field. 
Jimtown: Wait a minute. I don’t think YOU understand! We’ve spent decades developing our youth program. It is one of the best in the state. We’ve created a culture where all of the kids in the community want to play football and their parents, many of whom played at Jimtown when they were in high school, support the program. The kids get good instruction for 6 years prior to even getting to high school. It isn’t our problem that you haven’t made the same commitment to get where we are. 
Tri-West Hendricks: That’s fine, but it is YOU who don’t understand!  We can never get to the point you are at with our community. We don’t have the income; we don’t have the parental involvement; we don’t have the same pool of kids that you do. 
Jimtown: Pool of kids? We have the same pool of kids. That is what the class system is for. We each have nearly the same number of kids so we are in the same class. I don’t know what “pool of kids” has to do with anything. 
Tri-West Hendricks: You draw kids from a much larger area than we do. Kids are drawn to your program because of its success. The more success you have, the more kids want to play there, the better your kids get, the more success you have, the more kids want to play there, and on and on. We can’t compete with that. It isn’t about effort. No amount of effort can get us there. It’s not fair!

In the meantime, Western Boone was toasting to the Publics’ success. "Gentlemen," concluded Western Boone, "I will give you the same toast as before, but in a different form. Fill your glasses to the brim. Gentlemen, here is my toast: To the prosperity of The Publics!"

There was the same hearty cheering as before, and the mugs were emptied to the dregs. But as the P/P’s outside gazed at the scene, it seemed to them that some strange thing was happening. What was it that had altered in the faces of the Publics? Their eyes flitted from one face to another. Some of them had five chins, some had four, some had three. But what was it that seemed to be melting and changing? Then, the applause having come to an end, the company took up their cards and continued the game that had been interrupted, and the P/P’s crept silently away.
But they had not gone twenty yards when they stopped short. An uproar of voices was coming from the farmhouse. They rushed back and looked through the window again. Yes, a violent quarrel was in progress. There were shoutings, bangings on the table, sharp suspicious glances, furious denials. The source of the trouble appeared to be that Jimtown and Tri-West Hendricks had each played an ace of spades simultaneously.

Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the Publics. The P/P’s outside looked from Public to P/P, and from P/P to Public, and from Public to P/P again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.

Lysander, it looks like it might be that time again.  

10 hours ago, DumfriesYMCA said:

what are y’all gonna do if you have to play in 5A in 2021 with only 600 kids for enrollment 😂. Obviously have a lot of work to even make that happen but the possibility it certainly there now 

I don't think EM is going to have any trouble competing in 5A.  Which team in S15 or S16 could beat EM?  New Pal will likely move up so if EM wins the regional then they'll get Cathedral or something equivalent in semi-state.  We played them competitively this year so EM probably could have as well.  Winning a regional and being competitive in semi-state is pertty good for playing up 2 classes.  Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but I don't forsee them being outmatched by any means.  

17 minutes ago, Tiger391 said:

Good luck HH! Think some tigers fan are coming to cheer you on others like me will be watching from hotel lobby! #BEATCHATARD 

Wait . . . geography over religious affiliation?  Come on, we need to at least try to keep up the pretense of the P/P cartel as the shadow authority over Indiana HS football.  What if they start to think that we don't actually have a statewide conspiracy to direct the best players to our schools?  Where will our psychological advantage go?  Soon, they will start to realize that recruiting isn't an excuse and then where we be?  Please edit your post to say, "You have no chance against the Catholic school hegemony of which EM is a key component.  We will be rooting for our Catholic brethren while eating fish and chips because we are required to do so by the papal hierarchy."  😉

42 minutes ago, jets said:

Being from SW Indiana and a member of the PAC- I’ve tried to keep up with all the thoughts/predictions of this game thread. I keep hearing/reading about how this Chatard team is untouchable, they are unlike anything HH will have seen, etc...and while all of that may turn out to be true, I keep having one pervival thought keep running through my head and that is

Has any PAC team made a trip to the Dome or Lucas Oil and just got blasted or blown out of the water??? I don’t think so?(and I may be wrong- but I sure don’t seem to remember it)

So with that thought keep running through my mind- I don’t think it will be the blow-out many are expecting. 

Best of luck to the Pats- bring it home and have that 2 point play dialed up just in case- you never know 😜

In 3A, EM has been 4 times and HH twice each with one championship.  All losses were within 2 scores, so, no blowouts.  Not sure about the other classes.  Is Mater Dei in the PAC?  I think they got roughed up a few times by Luers in 2A.  I don't know who all is in the PAC, so, there may be others.  

I think it will be a competitive game, but, who knows?  As I've said before, no one knows $hit on here anyway.  Just a bunch of fans a-waiving.  

52 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

"What I'm worried about is chop blocks. Chatard is NOT a dirty team."

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

14 minutes ago, TommyTwoTimes said:

I think we can all agree that Animal Farm was a classic novel and that anything can happen.....

 

And the themes are applicable to so many different endeavors.  

I recognize that this is a fan site, but anyone who thinks they know how Friday is going to turn out is delusional.  There have been years we have been big favorites and lost, years where we have been underdogs and won. Years when we had good offenses, good defenses, bad offenses, and bad defenses.  Years where we knew our opponent better than any other team in the state and years where we didn't know a thing about our opponent.  We've played games in good weather, bad weather, with good officiating, and with bad officiating.  We've played close to home and far away.  We've gotten stuck in traffic, took wrong turns, had buses break down and we've had games where that has happened to our opponents.  We've played where everyone has been healthy and where we've had key injuries.  We've had years where we won big, barely won at the last second, lost big, and barely lost at the last second.  Games where we've played our best and games where we didn't.  What is going to happen on Friday?  Who knows?  Anything can happen and no one has any idea what the outcome will be.  That is the beauty of sports, after all.  Chatard has played in 95 championship games (cumulative sectional, regional, semi-state, and state).  In that many games all kinds of crazy $hit can happen and much of it has over the years.  We are 76 - 19 in those 95 games.  Now, 19 losses is a lot of losses.  That means there are a lot of stories out there about some team beating Chatard for a championship.  I commend every one of those teams. They each deserved it and, with very few exceptions, those fan bases have been gracious in victory.  But that doesn't mean that anyone who predicted those 19 losses (or those 76 victories for that matter) knows any more than anyone else.  Enjoy the banter, but, keep it civil.  These are two great programs who will play a great many more championship games in the future.  Pray for the safety of all of the players and good luck to both teams on Friday.