@DT
Not to diminish Marian's successes and their win over Penn this year, but I think joining the DAC might be the best case scenario for Penn, Elkhart and the DAC member schools. Penn blundered, even if it wasn't apparent then, when they chose to stay in the NIC in '02. The NIC is an objectively bad fit on size alone, if not an outright bad football conference, for schools like Penn and Elkhart. Penn is able to get some better varsity games now that they player fewer conference games, but the JVs and freshmen typically do not play games against those opponents. They usually get to see an NIC team twice. This year they did see Elkhart twice, and they had been playing Elkhart Central twice a year for several years.
From experience, Penn's freshman, JV, and for years many of the varsity contests have almost always been unable to deliver a sufficient number of quality, live reps for players for development. Most other NIC schools typically field significantly smaller, less talented freshman and JV squads because of their varsity needs, school size or program health or some combination of these factors.
I looked at scores from Elkhart's freshman and JV games this year and they looked an awful lot like Penn freshman and JV games from over the years. I have to assume that the level of competition in the MIC and HCC is typically flatter across the board, freshman and JV rosters are at least more comparable in size, and, if nothing else, the success of programs within those conferences has to better illuminate areas in which you need to evolve or improve.
Maybe the freshman and JV teams in the DAC would end up being similar, but I would have to see it to believe it. I don't think this is a grass is greener situation. I think joining the DAC is really the only way those two programs can get the push they need to develop players and evolve to compete with the Indy schools. Or else Penn and Elkhart agree to play all of their freshman and JV games against each other. Might be a good way to manufacture a Mishawaka type level of rivalry if nothing else.
I just don't see them going independent.
NIC North: Penn, 3338; Elkhart, 3185; SB Adams, 1913; New Prairie, 961; St. Joe, 857; Marian, 645
DAC: Lake Central, 3316; Crown Point, 2855; Portage, 2436; Merillville, 2187; Chesterton, 2063; Valparaiso, 2054; LaPorte, 1819; Michigan City, 1611